Taxa de câmbio, exportações e crescimento: uma investigação sobre a hipótese de doença holandesa no Brasil

This paper investigates the hypothesis of Dutch disease in Brazil by the existence of a negative relationship between commodity exports and the real exchange rate, and the effects of export specialization in commodities on the Brazilian economic growth from 1999 to 2010 based on VAR model. The evidences suggested an expressive importance of commodities exports in explaining the real exchange rate changes. Moreover, commodities exports shocks were relevant to explain Brazilian economic growth rate changes, which supports the "curse" of natural resources literature.

Convenções financeiras e a taxa básica de juros no Brasil: uma primeira aproximação

Financial conventions and basic interest rate in Brazil. This article discusses the thesis that the Brazilian interest rate is a convention, focusing on the basic interest rate under the inflation targeting regime. On the one hand, there are some complications involved in this debate. In order to show this, we consider the theoretical works that have been references for the Brazilian economists who see an interest rate convention in the country. On the other hand, despite the difficulties, it is possible to find signs of conventionality in the determination of the Brazilian basic rate, by analyzing two properties of conventions: conformity of some with the conformity of others; and arbitrariness.

Taxa de juros e mecanismos de transmissão da política monetária no Brasil

Este trabalho desenvolve a hipótese de que a taxa de juros brasileira é alta como resultado de mecanismos de transmissão monetária parcialmente obstruídos. Surgem falhas de transmissão devido às seguintes características da economia brasileira: (i) segmentação do mercado de crédito; (ii) baixa penetração do crédito livre dentro do processo de determinação de renda; (iii) truncada estrutura a termo da taxas de juros; (iv) a participação das LFT na composição da dívida pública; (v) a participação dos preços administrados no índice de preços ao consumidor. Para alcançar este resultado, o trabalho explora o modelo BMW e fornece algumas evidências preliminares.

Gravidez na adolescência: Dimensões do problema

Uma intrincada rede de fatores confere à gravidez na adolescência um grau elevado de risco para a mãe e para a criança, especialmente as de classes populares. As conseqüências perversas de uma gravidez na adolescência se fazem sentir tanto na morbidade/mortalidade de mãe e bebê quanto nos impactos econômico, educacional-escolar e social. Agir educacionalmente é um forma de enfrentar esse problema. No entanto, acões educacionais que enfatizam a abordagem apenas biológica do planejamento familiar não tem sido eficazes se considerarmos as estatísticas referentes à saúde reprodutiva das adolescentes. Para que a educação possa efetivamente contribuir para a redução desse tipo de gravidez, todas dimensões devem ser consideradas, com especial destaque para a dimensão sociocultural na qual encontramos fortes determinantes da gravidez indesejada. Abordar educacionalmente essa dimensão significa abrir espaço dentro e fora das escolas para o debate sobre a identidade feminina num processo que abranja a totalidade do ser humano.

Introduced taxa in disturbed ecosystems

In the literature, introduced taxa are assumed to be present, more abundant, and occupy greater physical space in portions of ecosystems disturbed by human activity. This study tested this principle in two sites, Short Hills provincial Park ("SHU) and Backus Woods ("B~l"). spatial distribution of introduced taxa of vegetation, isopods, and earthworms was determined with the runs test along 300m transects encompassing gradients of anthropogenic disturbance severity. The hypothesis was that introduced taxa would be aggregated along these transects; the null hypothesis was that they would not be aggregated. The null hypothesis was rejected for the introduced taxa as a unit, and vegetation and earthworms individually. Introduced taxa were aggregated along 53.33% (N~30) and 57.14% (N~21) of the transects in SH and BW (respectively). Introduced vegetation (90.00%, N~10 and 100.00%, N~7) and earthworms (50.00%, N~10 and 50.00%, N~8) were also significantly aggregated within the sites. Introduced isopods, however, were not significantly aggregated at either place (20. 00%, N-=10 and 16. 67%, ~J~6). This study demonstrated that introduced taxa are aggregated within ecosystems disturbed by human activity. However, since introduced isopods were not significantly aggregated it was also shown that taxa respond differently.

Avaliação da taxa de fertilidade em éguas da raça puro sangue lusitano : efeito da idade da égua e do tipo de cobrição (cobrição natural vs inseminação artificial)

Ao longo dos meses de estágio acompanhei diversos procedimentos médicos veterinários, sendo que a maior parte deles diziam respeito à área da reprodução equina. A Raça Puro Sangue Lusitano (PSL) é a mais importante raça portuguesa autóctone de equinos. Contudo, não existem muitos estudos no que respeita à sua eficiência reprodutiva. Este trabalho pretende fazer um estudo sobre o efeito da idade da égua e do tipo de cobrição (natural e inseminação artificial - IA) na taxa de fertilidade de éguas PSL, através do cálculo das diferentes taxas de gestação. Neste estudo, verificou-se que a percentagem de éguas gestantes no final da época reprodutiva foi de 90%, encontrando-se dentro dos valores esperados (71% - 96%). Os dados foram recolhidos durante a época reprodutiva de 2011/2012 e permitiram-me elaborar um estudo retrospectivo para melhor perceber a prática do maneio reprodutivo equino e a influência de alguns parâmetros na taxa de fertilidade das éguas. Relativamente aos diferentes tipos de sémen, verificou-se que a taxa de fertilidade em éguas cobertas por cobrição natural (n=14) foi de 78,6% e por IA (n=36) foi de 94,4%, resultado que se situa dentro dos valores esperados. No que respeita à IA, a taxa de fertilidade com sémen fresco (n=16) foi de 93,8%, com sémen refrigerado (n=19) foi de 94,7% e com sémen congelado (n=1) foi de 100%. Os valores para sémen fresco e refrigerado encontram-se dentro do esperado, sendo que para sémen congelado este é muito superior aos valores reportados na bibliografia, visto ser o tipo de sémen com menores taxas de fertilidade. Este facto deve-se, provavelmente, à dimensão da amostra, e ao facto de o sémen congelado ser de elevada qualidade. Neste estudo verificamos também que não há relação estatística entre a idade das éguas e a taxa de gestação, contrariamente ao que é referido na bibliografia, o que se deverá provavelmente ao tamanho da amostra (n=50).

Nonbreeding-Season Drivers of Population Dynamics in Seasonal Migrants: Conservation Parallels Across Taxa

For seasonal migrants, logistical constraints have often limited conservation efforts to improving survival and reproduction during the breeding season only. Yet, mounting empirical evidence suggests that events occurring throughout the migratory life cycle can critically alter the demography of many migrant species. Herein, we build upon recent syntheses of avian migration research to review the role of non-breeding seasons in determining the population dynamics and fitness of diverse migratory taxa, including salmonid fishes, marine mammals, ungulates, sea turtles, butterflies, and numerous bird groups. We discuss several similarities across these varied migrants: (i) non-breeding survivorship tends to be a strong driver of population growth; (ii) non-breeding events can affect fitness in subsequent seasons through seasonal interactions at individual- and population-levels; (iii) broad-scale climatic influences often alter non-breeding resources and migration timing, and may amplify population impacts through covariation among seasonal vital rates; and (iv) changes to both stationary and migratory non-breeding habitats can have important consequences for abundance and population trends. Finally, we draw on these patterns to recommend that future conservation research for seasonal migrants will benefit from: (1) more explicit recognition of the important parallels among taxonomically diverse migratory animals; (2) an expanded research perspective focused on quantification of all seasonal vital rates and their interactions; and (3) the development of detailed population projection models that account for complexity and uncertainty in migrant population dynamics.

Detecting recombination in 4-taxa DNA sequence alignments with Bayesian hidden Markov models and Markov chain Monte Carlo

This article presents a statistical method for detecting recombination in DNA sequence alignments, which is based on combining two probabilistic graphical models: (1) a taxon graph (phylogenetic tree) representing the relationship between the taxa, and (2) a site graph (hidden Markov model) representing interactions between different sites in the DNA sequence alignments. We adopt a Bayesian approach and sample the parameters of the model from the posterior distribution with Markov chain Monte Carlo, using a Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs-within-Gibbs scheme. The proposed method is tested on various synthetic and real-world DNA sequence alignments, and we compare its performance with the established detection methods RECPARS, PLATO, and TOPAL, as well as with two alternative parameter estimation schemes.

The challenge of maintaining Atlantic forest biodiversity: A multi-taxa conservation assessment of specialist and generalist species in an agro-forestry mosaic in southern Bahia

Recent developments have highlighted the importance of forest amount at large spatial scales and of matrix quality for ecological processes in remnants. These developments, in turn, suggest the potential for reducing biodiversity loss through the maintenance of a high percentage of forest combined with sensitive management of anthropogenic areas. We conducted a multi-taxa survey to evaluate the potential for biodiversity maintenance in an Atlantic forest landscape that presented a favorable context from a theoretical perspective (high proportion of mature forest partly surrounded by structurally complex matrices). We sampled ferns, butterflies, frogs, lizards, bats, small mammals and birds in interiors and edges of large and small mature forest remnants and two matrices (second-growth forests and shade cacao plantations), as well as trees in interiors of small and large remnants. By considering richness, abundance and composition of forest specialists and generalists, we investigated the biodiversity value of matrix habitats (comparing them with interiors of large remnants for all groups except tree), and evaluated area (for all groups) and edge effects (for all groups except trees) in mature forest remnants. our results suggest that in landscapes comprising high amounts of mature forest and low contrasting matrices: (1) shade cacao plantations and second-growth forests harbor an appreciable number of forest specialists; (2) most forest specialist assemblages are not affected by area or edge effects, while most generalist assemblages proliferate at edges of small remnants. Nevertheless, differences in tree assemblages, especially among smaller trees, Suggest that observed patterns are unlikely to be stable over time. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Untangling associations between chironomid taxa in Neotropical streams using local and landscape filters

1. Analyses of species association have major implications for selecting indicators for freshwater biomonitoring and conservation, because they allow for the elimination of redundant information and focus on taxa that can be easily handled and identified. These analyses are particularly relevant in the debate about using speciose groups (such as the Chironomidae) as indicators in the tropics, because they require difficult and time-consuming analysis, and their responses to environmental gradients, including anthropogenic stressors, are poorly known. 2. Our objective was to show whether chironomid assemblages in Neotropical streams include clear associations of taxa and, if so, how well these associations could be explained by a set of models containing information from different spatial scales. For this, we formulated a priori models that allowed for the influence of local, landscape and spatial factors on chironomid taxon associations (CTA). These models represented biological hypotheses capable of explaining associations between chironomid taxa. For instance, CTA could be best explained by local variables (e.g. pH, conductivity and water temperature) or by processes acting at wider landscape scales (e.g. percentage of forest cover). 3. Biological data were taken from 61 streams in Southeastern Brazil, 47 of which were in well-preserved regions, and 14 of which drained areas severely affected by anthropogenic activities. We adopted a model selection procedure using Akaike`s information criterion to determine the most parsimonious models for explaining CTA. 4. Applying Kendall`s coefficient of concordance, seven genera (Tanytarsus/Caladomyia, Ablabesmyia, Parametriocnemus, Pentaneura, Nanocladius, Polypedilum and Rheotanytarsus) were identified as associated taxa. The best-supported model explained 42.6% of the total variance in the abundance of associated taxa. This model combined local and landscape environmental filters and spatial variables (which were derived from eigenfunction analysis). However, the model with local filters and spatial variables also had a good chance of being selected as the best model. 5. Standardised partial regression coefficients of local and landscape filters, including spatial variables, derived from model averaging allowed an estimation of which variables were best correlated with the abundance of associated taxa. In general, the abundance of the associated genera tended to be lower in streams characterised by a high percentage of forest cover (landscape scale), lower proportion of muddy substrata and high values of pH and conductivity (local scale). 6. Overall, our main result adds to the increasing number of studies that have indicated the importance of local and landscape variables, as well as the spatial relationships among sampling sites, for explaining aquatic insect community patterns in streams. Furthermore, our findings open new possibilities for the elimination of redundant data in the assessment of anthropogenic impacts on tropical streams.