Simulated global-mean sea level changes over the last half-millennium

Simulations of the last 500 yr carried out using the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3) with anthropogenic and natural (solar and volcanic) forcings have been analyzed. Global-mean surface temperature change during the twentieth century is well reproduced. Simulated contributions to global-mean sea level rise during recent decades due to thermal expansion (the largest term) and to mass loss from glaciers and ice caps agree within uncertainties with observational estimates of these terms, but their sum falls short of the observed rate of sea level rise. This discrepancy has been discussed by previous authors; a completely satisfactory explanation of twentieth-century sea level rise is lacking. The model suggests that the apparent onset of sea level rise and glacier retreat during the first part of the nineteenth century was due to natural forcing. The rate of sea level rise was larger during the twentieth century than during the previous centuries because of anthropogenic forcing, but decreasing natural forcing during the second half of the twentieth century tended to offset the anthropogenic acceleration in the rate. Volcanic eruptions cause rapid falls in sea level, followed by recovery over several decades. The model shows substantially less decadal variability in sea level and its thermal expansion component than twentieth-century observations indicate, either because it does not generate sufficient ocean internal variability, or because the observational analyses overestimate the variability.

Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv equivalent to 10(6) ms(3) s(-1)) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate sonic weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.

Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone and methane caused by the transport sector

The year 2000 radiative forcing (RF) due to changes in O3 and CH4 (and the CH4-induced stratospheric water vapour) as a result of emissions of short-lived gases (oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon monoxide and non-methane hydrocarbons) from three transport sectors (ROAD, maritime SHIPping and AIRcraft) are calculated using results from five global atmospheric chemistry models. Using results from these models plus other published data, we quantify the uncertainties. The RF due to short-term O3 changes (i.e. as an immediate response to the emissions without allowing for the long-term CH4 changes) is positive and highest for ROAD transport (31mWm-2) compared to SHIP (24 mWm-2) and AIR (17 mWm-2) sectors in four of the models. All five models calculate negative RF from the CH4 perturbations, with a larger impact from the SHIP sector than for ROAD and AIR. The net RF of O3 and CH4 combined (i.e. including the impact of CH4 on ozone and stratospheric water vapour) is positive for ROAD (+16(±13)(one standard deviation) mWm-2) and AIR (+6(±5) mWm-2) traffic sectors and is negative for SHIP (-18(±10) mWm-2) sector in all five models. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potentials (GTP) are presented for AIR NOx emissions; there is a wide spread in the results from the 5 chemistry models, and it is shown that differences in the methane response relative to the O3 response drive much of the spread.

Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO2 (171720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genotypic adaptation to mean temperature change. Firstly, observed and simulated yields in the baseline climate were compared. Secondly, the response of yield to changes in mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. Thirdly, the relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes was examined. In simulations without genotypic adaptation, most of the uncertainty came from the climate model parameters. Comparison with the simulations with genotypic adaptation and with a previous study suggested that the relatively low crop parameter uncertainty derives from the observational constraints on the crop parameters used in this study. Fourthly, the simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. The results suggest that the germplasm for complete adaptation of groundnut cultivation in western India to a doubled-CO2 environment may not exist. In conjunction with analyses of germplasm and local management

The importance of temperature and moisture to the egg-laying behaviour of a pest slug, Deroceras reticulatum

Oviposition behaviour is important when modelling the population dynamics of many invertebrates. The numbers of eggs laid are frequently used to describe fecundity, but this measure may differ significantly from realised fecundity. Oviposition has been shown to be important when describing the dynamics of slug populations, which are important agricultural pests. The numbers of eggs laid by Deroceras reticulatum and their viability were measured across a range of 16 temperature (4, 10, 15 and 23 degrees C) by moisture (33%, 42%, 53% and 58% by dry soil weight) experimental combinations. A fitted quadratic response surface model was used to estimate how D. reticulatum adjusted its egg laying to the surrounding temperature and moisture conditions, with most eggs being laid at a combination of 53% soil moisture and 18 degrees C. The number and proportion of viable eggs also covaried with temperature and moisture, suggesting that D. reticulatum may alter their investment in reproduction to maximise their fitness. We have shown that the number of viable eggs differs from the total number of eggs laid by D. reticulatum. Changes in egg viability with temperature and moisture may also be seen in other species and should be considered when modelling populations of egg-laying invertebrates.

Genotype and temperature influence pea aphid resistance to a fungal entomopathogen

The influence of temperature on life history traits of four Acyrthosiphon pisum clones was investigated, together with their resistance to one genotype of the fungal entomopathogen Erynia neoaphidis . There was no difference among aphid clones in development rate, but they did differ in fecundity. Both development rate and fecundity were influenced by temperature, but all clones showed similar responses to the changes in temperature (i.e. the interaction term was nonsignificant). However, there were significant differences among clones in susceptibility to the pathogen, and this was influenced by temperature. Furthermore, the clones differed in how temperature influenced susceptibility, with susceptibility rankings changing with temperature. Two clones showed changes in susceptibility which mirrored changes in the in vitro vegetative growth rate of E. neoaphidis at different temperatures, whereas two other clones differed considerably from this expected response. Such interactions between genotype and temperature may help maintain heritable variation in aphid susceptibility to fungal pathogen attack and have implications for our understanding of disease dynamics in natural populations. This study also highlights the difficulties of drawing conclusions about the efficacy of a biological control agent when only a restricted range of pest genotypes or environmental conditions are considered.

Different supramolecular hydrogen bond structures and significant changes in magnetic properties in dinuclear mu(2)-1,1-N-3 copper(II) complexes with very similar tridentate Schiff base blocking ligands

Three new basal-apical, mu(2)-1,1-azide bridged complexes, [CuL1(N-3)](2) (1), [CuL2(N-3)](2) (2) and [CuL3(N-3)]2 (3) with very similar tridentate Schiff base blocking ligands [L-1=N-(3-aminopropyl) salicylaldimine, L-2=7-amino-4-methyl-5-azahept-3-en-2-one and L-3=8-amino-4-methyl-5-azaoct-3-en-2-one) have been synthesised and their molecular structures determined by X-ray crystallography. In complex 1, there is no inter-dimer H-bonding. However, complexes 2 and 3 form two different supramolecular structures in which the dinuclear entities are linked by strong H-bonds giving one-dimensional systems. Variable-temperature (300-2 K) magnetic susceptibility measurements and magnetization measurements at 2 K reveal that complexes 1 and 2 have antiferromagnetic coupling while 3 has ferromagnetic coupling which is also confirmed by EPR spectra at 4-300 K. Magnetostructural correlations have been made taking into consideration both the azido bridging ligands and the existence of intermolecular hydrogen bonds in complexes 2 and 3.

Quantitative model for the kinetics of lyotropic phase transitions involving changes in monolayer curvature

We present a kinetic model for transformations between different self-assembled lipid structures. The model shows how data on the rates of phase transitions between mesophases of different geometries can be used to provide information on the mechanisms of the transformations and the transition states involved. This can be used, for example, to gain an insight into intermediate structures in cell membrane fission or fusion. In cases where the monolayer curvature changes on going from the initial to the final mesophase, we consider the phase transition to be driven primarily by the change in the relaxed curvature with pressure or temperature, which alters the relative curvature elastic energies of the two mesophase structures. Using this model, we have analyzed previously published kinetic data on the inter-conversion of inverse bicontinuous cubic phases in the 1-monoolein-30 wt% water system. The data are for a transition between QII(G) and QII(D) phases, and our analysis indicates that the transition state more closely resembles the QII(D) than the QII(G) phase. Using estimated values for the monolayer mean curvatures of the QII(G) and QII(D) phases of -0.123 nm(-1) and -0.133 nm(-1), respectively, gives values for the monolayer mean curvature of the transition state of between -0.131 nm(-1) and -0.132 nm(-1). Furthermore, we estimate that several thousand molecules undergo the phase transition cooperatively within one "cooperative unit", equivalent to 1-2 unit cells of QII(G) or 4-10 unit cells of QII(D).

Effect of heat treatment on changes in texture, structure and properties of Thai indigenous chicken muscle

Changes in texture, microstructure, colour and protein solubility of Thai indigenous and broiler chicken Pectoralis muscle stripes cooked at different temperatures were evaluated. The change in shear value of both chicken muscles was a significant increase from 50 to 80 degrees C but no change from 80 to 100 degrees C. A significant decrease in fibre diameter was obtained in samples heated to an internal temperature of 60 degrees C and the greatest shrinkage of sarcomeres was observed with internal temperatures of 70-100 and 80-100 C for broiler and indigenous chicken muscles, respectively (P < 0.05). Cooking losses of indigenous chicken muscles increased markedly in the temperature range 80-100 C and were significantly higher than those of the broiler (P < 0.001). With increasing temperature, from 50 to 70 degrees C, cooked chicken muscle became lighter and yellower. Relationships between changes in sarcomere length, fibre diameter, shear value, cooking loss and solubility of muscle proteins were evaluated. It was found that the solubility of muscle protein was very highly correlated with the texture of cooked broiler muscle while sarcomere length changes and collagen solubility were important factors influencing the cooking loss and texture of cooked indigenous chicken muscle. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictions of some product parameters based on the processing conditions of ultra-high-temperature milk plants

The temperature-time profiles of 22 Australian industrial ultra-high-temperature (UHT) plants and 3 pilot plants, using both indirect and direct heating, were surveyed. From these data, the operating parameters of each plant, the chemical index C*, the bacteriological index B* and the predicted changes in the levels of beta-lactoglobulin, alpha-lactalbumin, lactulose, furosine and browning were determined using a simulation program based on published formulae and reaction kinetics data. There was a wide spread of heating conditions used, some of which resulted in a large margin of bacteriological safety and high chemical indices. However, no conditions were severe enough to cause browning during processing. The data showed a clear distinction between the indirect and direct heating plants. They also indicated that degree of denaturation of alpha-lactalbumin varied over a wide range and may be a useful discriminatory index of heat treatment. Application of the program to pilot plants illustrated its value in determining processing conditions in these plants to simulate the conditions in industrial UHT plants. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of temperature and salt on the maturation of white-salted cheese

White-salted cheeses were prepared from ultrafiltered (UF) cows' milk and salted to give final salt-in-moisture (SM) levels of 2.5, 3.2 and 4.0%. The cheeses were stored at 5degreesC and 10degreesC for up to 15 weeks. The microflora was dominated by lactic acid bacteria (LAB) but some mould growth was evident within 15 weeks at all SM levels and both temperatures. Levels of water-soluble nitrogen (WSN), attributed to chymosin activity, increased significantly with time, the rate being inversely proportional to the SM level and increasing with storage temperature. Similar effects were noted for trichloroacetic acid-soluble nitrogen (TCA-SN) and free amino acid (FAA) levels, both of which would also be affected by bacterial protease activity. The proteolytic activity was reflected by changes in the hardness and fracturability of the cheeses.

Increased temperature sensitivity of net DOC production from ombrotrophic peat due to water table draw-down.

The production and release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from peat soils is thought to be sensitive to changes in climate, specifically changes in temperature and rainfall. However, little is known about the actual rates of net DOC production in response to temperature and water table draw-down, particularly in comparison to carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes. To explore these relationships, we carried out a laboratory experiment on intact peat soil cores under controlled temperature and water table conditions to determine the impact and interaction of each of these climatic factors on net DOC production. We found a significant interaction (P < 0.001) between temperature, water table draw-down and net DOC production across the whole soil core (0 to −55 cm depth). This corresponded to an increase in the Q10 (i.e. rise in the rate of net DOC production over a 10 °C range) from 1.84 under high water tables and anaerobic conditions to 3.53 under water table draw-down and aerobic conditions between −10 and − 40 cm depth. However, increases in net DOC production were only seen after water tables recovered to the surface as secondary changes in soil water chemistry driven by sulphur redox reactions decreased DOC solubility, and therefore DOC concentrations, during periods of water table draw-down. Furthermore, net microbial consumption of DOC was also apparent at − 1 cm depth and was an additional cause of declining DOC concentrations during dry periods. Therefore, although increased temperature and decreased rainfall could have a significant effect on net DOC release from peatlands, these climatic effects could be masked by other factors controlling the biological consumption of DOC in addition to soil water chemistry and DOC solubility. These findings highlight both the sensitivity of DOC release from ombrotrophic peat to episodic changes in water table draw-down, and the need to disentangle complex and interacting controls on DOC dynamics to fully understand the impact of environmental change on this system.

Influence of temperature on pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum (Hemiptera: Aphididae) resistance to natural enemy attack

The ability to resist or avoid natural enemy attack is a critically important insect life history trait, yet little is understood of how these traits may be affected by temperature. This study investigated how different genotypes of the pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum Harris, a pest of leguminous crops, varied in resistance to three different natural enemies (a fungal pathogen, two species of parasitoid wasp and a coccinellid beetle), and whether expression of resistance was influenced by temperature. Substantial clonal variation in resistance to the three natural enemies was found. Temperature influenced the number of aphids succumbing to the fungal pathogen Erynia neoaphidis Remaudiere & Hermebert, with resistance increasing at higher temperatures (18 vs. 28degreesC). A temperature difference of 5degreesC (18 vs. 23degreesC) did not affect the ability of A. pisum to resist attack by the parasitoids Aphidius ervi Haliday and A. eadyi Stary Gonzalez & Hall. Escape behaviour from foraging coccinellid beetles (Hippodamia convergens Guerin-Meneville) was not directly influenced by aphid clone or temperature (16 vs. 21degreesC). However, there were significant interactions between clone and temperature (while most clones did not respond to temperature, one was less likely to escape at 16degreesC), and between aphid clone and ladybird presence (some clones showed greater changes in escape behaviour in response to the presence of foraging coccinellids than others). Therefore, while larger temperature differences may alter interactions between Acyrthosiphon pisum and an entomopathogen, there is little evidence to suggest that smaller changes in temperature will alter pea aphid-natural enemy interactions.

Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy

Changes in atmospheric temperature have a particular importance in climate research because climate models consistently predict a distinctive vertical profile of trends. With increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the surface and troposphere are consistently projected to warm, with an enhancement of that warming in the tropical upper troposphere. Hence, attempts to detect this distinct ‘fingerprint’ have been a focus for observational studies. The topic acquired heightened importance following the 1990 publication of an analysis of satellite data which challenged the reality of the projected tropospheric warming. This review documents the evolution over the last four decades of understanding of tropospheric temperature trends and their likely causes. Particular focus is given to the difficulty of producing homogenized datasets, with which to derive trends, from both radiosonde and satellite observing systems, because of the many systematic changes over time. The value of multiple independent analyses is demonstrated. Paralleling developments in observational datasets, increased computer power and improved understanding of climate forcing mechanisms have led to refined estimates of temperature trends from a wide range of climate models and a better understanding of internal variability. It is concluded that there is no reasonable evidence of a fundamental disagreement between tropospheric temperature trends from models and observations when uncertainties in both are treated comprehensively

A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the 21st century

In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the global mean. There is a considerable spread in the projected patterns of these changes by current models, as shown by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4). This spread has not reduced from that given by the Third Assessment models. Comparison with projections by ensembles of models based on a single structure supports an earlier suggestion that models of similar formulation give more similar patterns of sea level change. Analysing an AR4 ensemble of model projections under a business-as-usual scenario shows that steric changes (associated with subsurface ocean density changes) largely dominate the sea level pattern changes. The relative importance of subsurface temperature or salinity changes in contributing to this differs from region to region and, to an extent, from model-to-model. In general, thermosteric changes give the spatial variations in the Southern Ocean, halosteric changes dominate in the Arctic and strong compensation between thermosteric and halosteric changes characterises the Atlantic. The magnitude of sea level and component changes in the Atlantic appear to be linked to the amount of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) weakening. When the MOC weakening is substantial, the Atlantic thermosteric patterns of change arise from a dominant role of ocean advective heat flux changes.