Assessing the improved discriminatory power of a new biomarker in prognostic models

Although the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) is the most popular measure of the performance of prediction models, it has limitations, especially when it is used to evaluate the added discrimination of a new biomarker in the model. Pencina et al. (2008) proposed two indices, the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), to supplement the improvement in the AUC (IAUC). Their NRI and IDI are based on binary outcomes in case-control settings, which do not involve time-to-event outcome. However, many disease outcomes are time-dependent and the onset time can be censored. Measuring discrimination potential of a prognostic marker without considering time to event can lead to biased estimates. In this dissertation, we have extended the NRI and IDI to survival analysis settings and derived the corresponding sample estimators and asymptotic tests. Simulation studies were conducted to compare the performance of the time-dependent NRI and IDI with Pencina’s NRI and IDI. For illustration, we have applied the proposed method to a breast cancer study.^ Key words: Prognostic model, Discrimination, Time-dependent NRI and IDI ^

A descriptive study of comprehensive and categorical services for pregnant and parenting adolescents in West Dallas

This study evaluates the effectiveness of the Children and Youth Projects' Adolescent Family Life Program, a comprehensive program serving pregnant and parenting adolescents in the economically disadvantaged area of West Dallas. The underlying question asked is what are the relative contributions of the comprehensive, school-linked Adolescent Family Life (AFL) Program compared with the Maternal Health and Family Planning Program (MHFPP), a categorical provider of family planning and reproductive services, towards meeting the immediate and intermediate term needs of adolescent mothers. Also addressed are the protective effects of participation in the Dallas Independent School District Health Special Program, a segregated school for pregnant adolescents.^ A cohort of 339 West Dallas adolescent mothers who delivered babies during a two-year period, 1986 through 1987, are monitored by linking records from Parkland Hospital, the primary provider to hospital services to indigent women in Dallas, the Dallas Independent School District, and the prenatal care providers, the AFL and MHFP Programs. Information is collected on each teen describing her demographic, fertility, service utilization and educational characteristics.^ The study tests the hypothesis that adolescents receiving services from the comprehensive AFL program will be less likely to have a repeat birth and to discontinue school during the 24 month study period, compared with categorical provider clients. Although the study finds that there are no statistically significant differences in repeat deliveries, using survival analysis, or in school continuation between programs, important findings are revealed about the ethnic differences. Black and Hispanic fertility and educational behaviors are compared, and their implications for program design and evaluation discussed. ^

Role of {\it Mycobacterium avium-intracellulare\/} complex infection in AIDS mortality

Disseminated MAC (dMAC) is the third most prevalent opportunistic infection in AIDS patients. In order to understand the role MAC infection plays in affecting survival of AIDS patients, a cohort of 203 suspected dMAC veterans seen at the Houston Veterans Affairs Medical Center between August 14, 1987 and December 31, 1991 were analyzed. The criteria for suspected dMAC infection was HIV+ men having a CD4+ level $\le$200 cells/mm$\sp3,$ on zidovudine treatment $\ge$1 month and who had any of the following: (a) a confirmed respiratory MAC infection, (b) fever $\ge$101$\sp\circ\rm F$ for $\ge$48 hours, (c) unexplained weight loss of 10 lbs or $\ge$10% BW over 3 months or (d) Hgb $\le$7.5 g/dl or decrease in Hgb $\ge$3.0 g/dl, while on 500-600 mg/day AZT. The study was conducted before the commencement of an effective MAC anti-mycobacterial therapy, so the true course of MAC infection was seen without the confounder of a therapeutic regimen. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression survival analysis was used to compare 45 MAC culture positive and 118 MAC culture negative veterans. The 1 year survival rate of veterans with documented dMAC infection was 0.37 compared to 0.50 for veterans not acquiring dMAC infection. Significant differences between subgroups were also seen with the variables: PCP prophylaxis, the AIDS indicator disease Candida esophagitis, CD4+ lymphocyte level, CD4 percent lymphocyte level, WBC level, Hgb and Hct levels. Using multivariate modeling, it was determined that PCP prophylaxis (RR = 6.12, CI 2.24-16.68) was a predictor of survival and both CD4% lymphocytes $\le$6.0% (RR = 0.33, CI 0.17-0.68) and WBC level $\le$3000 cells/mm$\sp3$ (RR = 0.60, CI 0.39-0.93) were predictors of mortality. CD4+ level $\le$50 cells/mm$\sp3$ was not a significant predictor of mortality. Although MAC culture status was a significant predictor of mortality in the univariate model, a positive dMAC culture was not a significant predictor of AIDS mortality in the multivariate model. A positive dMAC culture, however, did affect mortality in a stratified analysis when baseline laboratory values were: CD8+ lymphocytes $>$600 cells/mm$\sp3,$ Hgb $>$11.0 g/dl, Hct $>$31.0% and WBC level $>$3000 cells/mm$\sp3.$ ^

Nonpurging binge eaters versus nonbinge eaters and treatment retention for adult obesity

Dropout from obesity treatment has been a major factor associated with weight control failure, with few reliable predictors of dropouts or completers. Previous studies have tended to treat obese people as a homogeneous group with standard behavior modification-based interventions. Current research indicates there may be subgroups within the obese population, binge eaters and nonbinge eaters, who have different dropout rates. Current studies also recommend focusing on the subset of this subgroup that does not engage in purging (vomiting, laxative abuse, or excessive exercise) to compensate for binge eating. This research uses a secondary dataset (N = 156) from a prospective study in which participants were randomized to a Food Dependency (FD) and a Behavioral Self-Management (BSM) group for weight reduction. Criteria for subjects in the original study included (1) scoring higher on the existing Binge Eating Scale (BES) in order to ensure enrollment of more binge eaters and (2) no compensatory purging behavior for binge eating. Subjects were then reclassified in this study as binge eaters or nonbinge eaters using the more stringent proposed 1994 DSM-IV criteria for Binge Eating Disorder (BED). Subjects were followed for dropout. Variables studied were binge status, age at obesity onset, age at study baseline, class instructor, number of previous weight loss attempts, race, marital status, body mass index (BMI kg/m$\sp2$), type of intervention, work status, educational level, and social support. Stepwise backward regression Cox survival analysis indicated binge status had a consistent, statistically significant protective effect on dropout in which binge eaters were half as likely to dropout versus nonbinge eaters (p = 0.04). Cox proportional hazards analysis indicated no statistical difference in dropout by type of intervention (FD, p = 0.13; BSM, p = 0.80) when controlling for binge status. All other variables did not reach significance, which is consistent with the literature. Implications of these findings suggest that (1) the proposed 1994 DSM-IV criteria for BED is a more useful classification that the existing DSM-III-R criteria, and (2) the identification of subgroups among obese subjects is an important step in dropout and weight loss intervention research. Future research can confirm this finding. ^

Risk factors of pneumonia in traumatic spinal-cord-injured patients

Pneumonia is a well-documented and common respiratory infection in patients with acute traumatic spinal cord injuries, and may recur during the course of acute care. Using data from the North American Clinical Trials Network (NACTN) for Spinal Cord Injury, the incidence, timing, and recurrence of pneumonia were analyzed. The two main objectives were (1) to investigate the time and potential risk factors for the first occurrence of pneumonia using the Cox Proportional Hazards model, and (2) to investigate pneumonia recurrence and its risk factors using a Counting Process model that is a generalization of the Cox Proportional Hazards model. The results from survival analysis suggested that surgery, intubation, American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) grade, direct admission to a NACTN site and age (older than 65 or not) were significant risks for first event of pneumonia and multiple events of pneumonia. The significance of this research is that it has the potential to identify patients at the time of admission who are at high risk for the incidence and recurrence of pneumonia. Knowledge and the time of occurrence of pneumonias are important factors for the development of prevention strategies and may also provide some insights into the selection of emerging therapies that compromise the immune system. ^

Renal Cryoablation: Investigation of Periprocedural Visualization Tools and Treatment Response Quantification

Cryoablation for small renal tumors has demonstrated sufficient clinical efficacy over the past decade as a non-surgical nephron-sparing approach for treating renal masses for patients who are not surgical candidates. Minimally invasive percutaneous cryoablations have been performed with image guidance from CT, ultrasound, and MRI. During the MRI-guided cryoablation procedure, the interventional radiologist visually compares the iceball size on monitoring images with respect to the original tumor on separate planning images. The comparisons made during the monitoring step are time consuming, inefficient and sometimes lack the precision needed for decision making, requiring the radiologist to make further changes later in the procedure. This study sought to mitigate uncertainty in these visual comparisons by quantifying tissue response to cryoablation and providing visualization of the response during the procedure. Based on retrospective analysis of MR-guided cryoablation patient data, registration and segmentation algorithms were investigated and implemented for periprocedural visualization to deliver iceball position/size with respect to planning images registered within 3.3mm with at least 70% overlap and a quantitative logit model was developed to relate perfusion deficit in renal parenchyma visualized in verification images as a result of iceball size visualized in monitoring images. Through retrospective study of 20 patient cases, the relationship between likelihood of perfusion loss in renal parenchyma and distance within iceball was quantified and iteratively fit to a logit curve. Using the parameters from the logit fit, the margin for 95% perfusion loss likelihood was found to be 4.28 mm within the iceball. The observed margin corresponds well with the clinically accepted margin of 3-5mm within the iceball. In order to display the iceball position and perfusion loss likelihood to the radiologist, algorithms were implemented to create a fast segmentation and registration module which executed in under 2 minutes, within the clinically-relevant 3 minute monitoring period. Using 16 patient cases, the average Hausdorff distance was reduced from 10.1mm to 3.21 mm with average DSC increased from 46.6% to 82.6% before and after registration.

Study on the effect of metformin in patients of metastatic renal cell cancer with diabetes receiving tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy

Objective: The primary objective of our study was to study the effect of metformin in patients of metastatic renal cell cancer (mRCC) and diabetes who are on treatment with frontline therapy of tyrosine kinase inhibitors. The effect of therapy was described in terms of overall survival and progression free survival. Comparisons were made between group of patients receiving metformin versus group of patients receiving insulin in diabetic patients of metastatic renal cancer on frontline therapy. Exploratory analyses were also done comparing non-diabetic patients of metastatic renal cell cancer receiving frontline therapy compared to diabetic patients of metastatic renal cell cancer receiving metformin therapy. ^ Methods: The study design is a retrospective case series to elaborate the response rate of frontline therapy in combination with metformin for mRCC patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The cohort was selected from a database, which was generated for assessing the effect of tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy associated hypertension in metastatic renal cell cancer at MD Anderson Cancer Center. Patients who had been started on frontline therapy for metastatic renal cell carcinoma from all ethnic and racial backgrounds were selected for the study. The exclusion criteria would be of patients who took frontline therapy for less than 3 months or were lost to follow-up. Our exposure variable was treatment with metformin, which comprised of patients who took metformin for the treatment of type 2 diabetes at any time of diagnosis of metastatic renal cell carcinoma. The outcomes assessed were last available follow-up or date of death for the overall survival and date of progression of disease from their radiological reports for time to progression. The response rates were compared by covariates that are known to be strongly associated with renal cell cancer. ^ Results: For our primary analyses between the insulin and metformin group, there were 82 patients, out of which 50 took insulin therapy and 32 took metformin therapy for type 2 diabetes. For our exploratory analysis, we compared 32 diabetic patients on metformin to 146 non-diabetic patients, not on metformin. Baseline characteristics were compared among the population. The time from the start of treatment until the date of progression of renal cell cancer and date of death or last follow-up were estimated for survival analysis. ^ In our primary analyses, there was a significant difference in the time to progression of patients receiving metformin therapy vs insulin therapy, which was also seen in our exploratory analyses. The median time to progression in primary analyses was 1259 days (95% CI: 659-1832 days) in patients on metformin therapy compared to 540 days (95% CI: 350-894) in patients who were receiving insulin therapy (p=0.024). The median time to progression in exploratory analyses was 1259 days (95% CI: 659-1832 days) in patients on metformin therapy compared to 279 days (95% CI: 202-372 days) in non-diabetic group (p-value <0.0001). ^ The median overall survival was 1004 days in metformin group (95% CI: 761-1212 days) compared to 816 days (95%CI: 558-1405 days) in insulin group (p-value<0.91). For the exploratory analyses, the median overall survival was 1004 days in metformin group (95% CI: 761-1212 days) compared to 766 days (95%CI: 649-965 days) in the non-diabetic group (p-value<0.78). Metformin was observed to increase the progression free survival in both the primary and exploratory analyses (HR=0.52 in metformin Vs insulin group and HR=0.36 in metformin Vs non-diabetic group, respectively). ^ Conclusion: In laboratory studies and a few clinical studies metformin has been proven to have dual benefits in patients suffering from cancer and type 2-diabetes via its action on the mammalian target of Rapamycin pathway and effect in decreasing blood sugar by increasing the sensitivity of the insulin receptors to insulin. Several studies in breast cancer patients have documented a beneficial effect (quantified by pathological remission of cancer) of metformin use in patients taking treatment for breast cancer therapy. Combination of metformin therapy in patients taking frontline therapy for renal cell cancer may provide a significant benefit in prolonging the overall survival in patients with metastatic renal cell cancer and diabetes. ^

KDIGO-based acute kidney injury criteria operate differently in hospitals and the community—findings from a large population cohort

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We acknowledge the data management support of Grampian Data Safe Haven (DaSH) and the associated financial support of NHS Research Scotland, through NHS Grampian investment in the Grampian DaSH. S.S. is supported by a Clinical Research Training Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (Ref 102729/Z/13/Z). We also acknowledge the support from The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research. The Farr Institute is supported by a 10-funder consortium: Arthritis Research UK, the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, the Economic and Social Research Council, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, the Medical Research Council, the National Institute of Health Research, the National Institute for Social Care and Health Research (Welsh Assembly Government), the Chief Scientist Office (Scottish Government Health Directorates) and the Wellcome Trust (MRC Grant Nos: Scotland MR/K007017/1).

A single nucleotide polymorphism in the RAD51 gene modifies cancer risk in BRCA2 but not BRCA1 carriers

BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers are at increased risk for both breast and ovarian cancer, but estimates of lifetime risk vary widely, suggesting their penetrance is modified by other genetic and/or environmental factors. The BRCA1 and BRCA2 proteins function in DNA repair in conjunction with RAD51. A preliminary report suggested that a single nucleotide polymorphism in the 5′ untranslated region of RAD51 (135C/G) increases breast cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. To investigate this effect we studied 257 female Ashkenazi Jewish carriers of one of the common BRCA1 (185delAG, 5382insC) or BRCA2 (6174delT) mutations. Of this group, 164 were affected with breast and/or ovarian cancer and 93 were unaffected. RAD51 genotyping was performed on all subjects. Among BRCA1 carriers, RAD51-135C frequency was similar in healthy and affected women [6.1% (3 of 49) and 9.9% (12 of 121), respectively], and RAD-135C did not influence age of cancer diagnosis [Hazard ratio (HR) = 1.18 for disease in RAD51-135C heterozygotes, not significant]. However, in BRCA2 carriers, RAD51-135C heterozygote frequency in affected women was 17.4% (8 of 46) compared with 4.9% (2 of 41) in unaffected women (P = 0.07). Survival analysis in BRCA2 carriers showed RAD51-135C increased risk of breast and/or ovarian cancer with an HR of 4.0 [95% confidence interval 1.6–9.8, P = 0.003]. This effect was largely due to increased breast cancer risk with an HR of 3.46 (95% confidence interval 1.3–9.2, P = 0.01) for breast cancer in BRCA2 carriers who were RAD51-135C heterozygotes. RAD51 status did not affect ovarian cancer risk. These results show RAD51-135C is a clinically significant modifier of BRCA2 penetrance, specifically in raising breast cancer risk at younger ages.

Estado nutricional aos 20 anos como fator de risco para incidência precoce de doenças crônicas não transmissíveis entre adultos de 30 a 49 anos

Introdução: O excesso de peso em adultos jovens está associado ao desenvolvimento de doenças crônicas não transmissíveis (DCNT) e à diminuição da qualidade de vida e ao aumento da mortalidade precoce. A transição da adolescência para a fase adulta é o período de maior risco para a incidência da obesidade. Objetivo: Estimar o efeito o índice de massa corpora (IMC) aos 20 anos sobre a incidência de DCNT em adultos brasileiros com idade entre 30 a 49 anos. Métodos: Foram selecionados 12.079 indivíduos de 30 a 49 anos da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde (PNS), realizada no ano de 2013. O modelo adotado para determinação das DCNT foi aquele proposto pela Organização Mundial de Saúde. A incidência das DCNT (hipertensão, doenças cardiovasculares, diabetes e câncer, entre outras), informada pela data do diagnóstico, foi modelada como função do IMC aos 20 anos. Os indivíduos sem a doença até o presente foram considerados como censura. As estimativas de sobrevida foram calculadas com o método de Kaplan-Meier (KM) para cada uma das doenças, estratificada por sexo e ajustada por escolaridade. A análise dos fatores de risco para as doenças foi feita utilizando-se o modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox. Resultados: Nas curvas de sobrevida KM, indivíduos com IMC >=25kg/m² apresentaram incidência mais elevada e precoce de DCNT, principalmente hipertensão, diabetes e depressão. A idade mediana para incidência do diabetes em obesos foi de 47 anos para homens e 48 anos para mulheres. A incidência da hipertensão arterial foi 4,2 por mil com sobrevida mediana de 48 e 44 anos em mulheres com excesso de peso e obesidade, respectivamente. Dentre os fatores de risco associados as DCNT, o tabagismo em idade precoce foi associado à incidência de depressão. Conclusão: O excesso de peso em adultos jovens aumenta a incidência precoce de DCNT, com efeitos negativos na qualidade de vida, lazer e produtividade, além de aumentar a demanda por serviços de saúde. Torna-se necessário que a intervenção para redução dessas doenças seja direcionada para o período da infância e adolescência com ações que promovam a redução da exposição desses indivíduos à alimentação de má qualidade e incentivo a prática de atividade, não uso do tabaco e consumo moderado de álcool.

Métodos de adequação e diagnóstico em modelos de sobrevivência dinâmicos

A análise de dados de sobrevivência tem sido tradicionalmente baseada no modelo de regressão de Cox (COX, 1972). No entanto, a suposição de taxas de falha proporcionais assumida para esse modelo pode não ser atendida em diversas situações práticas. Essa restrição do modelo de Cox tem gerado interesse em abordagens alternativas, dentre elas os modelos dinâmicos que permitem efeito das covariáveis variando no tempo. Neste trabalho, foram revisados os principais modelos de sobrevivência dinâmicos com estrutura aditiva e multiplicativa nos contextos não paramétrico e semiparamétrico. Métodos gráficos baseados em resíduos foram apresentados com a finalidade de avaliar a qualidade de ajuste desses modelos. Uma versão tempo-dependente da área sob a curva ROC, denotada por AUC(t), foi proposta com a finalidade de avaliar e comparar a qualidade de predição entre modelos de sobrevivência com estruturas aditiva e multiplicativa. O desempenho da AUC(t) foi avaliado por meio de um estudo de simulação. Dados de três estudos descritos na literatura foram também analisados para ilustrar ou complementar os cenários que foram considerados no estudo de simulação. De modo geral, os resultados obtidos indicaram que os métodos gráficos apresentados para avaliar a adequação dos modelos em conjunto com a AUC(t) se constituem em um conjunto de ferramentas estatísticas úteis para o próposito de avaliar modelos de sobrevivência dinâmicos nos contextos não paramétrico e semiparamétrico. Além disso, a aplicação desse conjunto de ferramentas em alguns conjuntos de dados evidenciou que se, por um lado, os modelos dinâmicos são atrativos por permitirem covariáveis tempo-dependentes, por outro lado podem não ser apropriados para todos os conjuntos de dados, tendo em vista que estimação pode apresentar restrições para alguns deles.

A nova família de distribuições odd log-logística: teoria e aplicações

Neste trabalho, foi proposta uma nova família de distribuições, a qual permite modelar dados de sobrevivência quando a função de risco tem formas unimodal e U (banheira). Ainda, foram consideradas as modificações das distribuições Weibull, Fréchet, half-normal generalizada, log-logística e lognormal. Tomando dados não-censurados e censurados, considerou-se os estimadores de máxima verossimilhança para o modelo proposto, a fim de verificar a flexibilidade da nova família. Além disso, um modelo de regressão locação-escala foi utilizado para verificar a influência de covariáveis nos tempos de sobrevida. Adicionalmente, conduziu-se uma análise de resíduos baseada nos resíduos deviance modificada. Estudos de simulação, utilizando-se de diferentes atribuições dos parâmetros, porcentagens de censura e tamanhos amostrais, foram conduzidos com o objetivo de verificar a distribuição empírica dos resíduos tipo martingale e deviance modificada. Para detectar observações influentes, foram utilizadas medidas de influência local, que são medidas de diagnóstico baseadas em pequenas perturbações nos dados ou no modelo proposto. Podem ocorrer situações em que a suposição de independência entre os tempos de falha e censura não seja válida. Assim, outro objetivo desse trabalho é considerar o mecanismo de censura informativa, baseado na verossimilhança marginal, considerando a distribuição log-odd log-logística Weibull na modelagem. Por fim, as metodologias descritas são aplicadas a conjuntos de dados reais.

Estudo da expansão da Leishmaniose Visceral no estado de São Paulo e de fatores intervenientes

INTRODUÇÃO: Leishmaniose visceral (LV) é uma doença negligenciada que afeta milhões de pessoas no mundo e que constitui um grave problema de saúde pública. OBJETIVOS: Descrever no tempo e no espaço, a dispersão de Lutzomyia longipalpis e a expansão da LV no estado de São Paulo (SP); identificar fatores associados a estes processos. MÉTODOS: Foram realizados estudos descritivos, ecológicos e de análise de sobrevida. Informações sobre o vetor e os casos foram obtidas na Superintendência de Controle de Endemias e no Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação para o período de 1997 a 2014. A área de estudo foi composta pelos 645 municípios de SP. Foram produzidos mapas temáticos e de fluxo e calcularam-se incidência, mortalidade e letalidade por LV em humanos (LVH). Utilizou-se a técnica de análise de sobrevida (Curvas de Kaplan-Meier e Regressão de Cox) para a identificação de fatores associados à dispersão do vetor e expansão da LV. RESULTADOS: A partir da detecção de Lu. longipalpis em Araçatuba em 1997, deram-se a ocorrência do primeiro caso canino (LVC) (1998) e o primeiro caso humano (LVH) autóctones (1999) em SP. Até 2014, foi detectada a presença do vetor em 173 (26,8 por cento ) municípios, LVC em 108 (16,7 por cento ) e LVH em 84 (13 por cento ). A expansão dos três fenômenos ocorreu no sentido noroeste para sudeste e se deram a velocidades constantes. Na região de São José do Rio Preto, a dispersão do vetor deu-se por vizinhança com municípios anteriormente infestados, a expansão da LV relacionou-se com os municípios sede das microrregiões e a doença ocorreu com maior intensidade nas áreas periféricas dos municípios. A presença da Rodovia Marechal Rondon e a divisa com o Mato Grosso do Sul foram fatores associados à ocorrência dos três eventos, assim como a presença da Rodovia Euclides da Cunha para presença do vetor e casos caninos, e, presença de presídios para casos humanos. CONCLUSÕES: A dispersão do vetor e da LV em SP iniciou-se, a partir de 1997, próximo à divisa com o estado do Mato Grosso do Sul, avançou no sentido noroeste para sudeste, na trajetória da rodovia Marechal Rondon, e ocorreu em progressão aritmética, com as sedes das microrregiões de SP tendo papel preponderante neste processo. A ocorrência autóctone de LVC e LVH iniciou-se na sequência da detecção de Lu. longipalpis em Araçatuba e de seu espalhamento por SP e não a partir dos locais onde anteriormente ele já estava presente. O uso da análise de sobrevida permitiu identificar fatores associados à dispersão do vetor e a expansão da LV. Os resultados deste estudo podem ser úteis para aprimorar as atividades de vigilância e controle da LV, no sentido de retardar sua expansão e/ou de mitigar seus efeitos, quando de sua ocorrência.

The dynamics of leniency application and the knock-on effect of cartel enforcement. Bruegel Working Paper 2016/02, February 2016

The authors study the timing of leniency applications using a novel application of multi-spell discrete-time survival analysis for a sample of cartels prosecuted by the European Commission between 1996 and 2014. The start of a Commission investigation does not affect the rate by which conspirators apply for leniency in the market investigated, but increases the rate of application in separate markets in which a conspirator in the investigated market also engaged in collusion. The revision of the Commission’s leniency programme in 2002 increased the rate of pre-investigation applications. Our results shed light on enforcement efforts against cartels and other forms of

Marriage breakdown in Australia - The social correlates of separation and divorce

Marriage breakdown through separation and divorce is a pervasive feature of Australian society. But little research investigates the social factors associated with marital breakdown in Australia. This study builds on and extends Australian research by using survival analysis models to examine patterns of association among temporal, life-course, attitudinal and economic factors associated with marital breakdown. Using data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, we find marital breakdown in Australia is socially patterned in similar ways to other Western countries. But our findings point to several directions for future research into marriage breakdown in Australia, and we identify certain unique features of Australian marriage breakdown that warrant a more detailed investigation, such as the relationship between ethnic origin and the risk of marital breakdown.