Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks

Although it is commonly accepted that most macroeconomic variables are nonstationary, it is often difficult to identify the source of the non-stationarity. In particular, it is well-known that integrated and short memory models containing trending components that may display sudden changes in their parameters share some statistical properties that make their identification a hard task. The goal of this paper is to extend the classical testing framework for I(1) versus I(0)+ breaks by considering a a more general class of models under the null hypothesis: non-stationary fractionally integrated (FI) processes. A similar identification problem holds in this broader setting which is shown to be a relevant issue from both a statistical and an economic perspective. The proposed test is developed in the time domain and is very simple to compute. The asymptotic properties of the new technique are derived and it is shown by simulation that it is very well-behaved in finite samples. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed technique, an application using inflation data is also provided.

Firm investment in imperfect capital markets: A structural estimation

We set up a dynamic model of firm investment in which liquidity constraintsenter explicity into the firm's maximization problem. The optimal policyrules are incorporated into a maximum likelihood procedure which estimatesthe structural parameters of the model. Investment is positively related tothe firm's internal financial position when the firm is relatively poor. This relationship disappears for wealthy firms, which can reach theirdesired level of investment. Borrowing is an increasing function of financial position for poor firms. This relationship is reversed as a firm's financial position improves, and large firms hold little debt.Liquidity constrained firms may be unused credits lines and the capacity toinvest further if they desire. However the fear that liquidity constraintswill become binding in the future induces them to invest only when internalresources increase.We estimate the structural parameters of the model and use them to quantifythe importance of liquidity constraints on firms' investment. We find thatliquidity constraints matter significantly for the investment decisions of firms. If firms can finance investment by issuing fresh equity, rather than with internal funds or debt, average capital stock is almost 35% higher overa period of 20 years. Transitory shocks to internal funds have a sustained effect on the capital stock. This effect lasts for several periods and ismore persistent for small firms than for large firms. A 10% negative shock to firm fundamentals reduces the capital stock of firms which face liquidityconstraints by almost 8% over a period as opposed to only 3.5% for firms which do not face these constraints.

Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allowsfor a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to setprices. The model nests the purely forward looking New KeynesianPhillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginalcosts as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theorysuggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap. Real marginal costsare a significant and quantitatively important determinant ofinflation. Backward looking price setting, while statisticallysignificant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we concludethat the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good firstapproximation to the dynamics of inflation.

Structural covariance of superficial white matter in mild Alzheimer's disease compared to normal aging.

INTRODUCTION: Interindividual variations in regional structural properties covary across the brain, thus forming networks that change as a result of aging and accompanying neurological conditions. The alterations of superficial white matter (SWM) in Alzheimer's disease (AD) are of special interest, since they follow the AD-specific pattern characterized by the strongest neurodegeneration of the medial temporal lobe and association cortices. METHODS: Here, we present an SWM network analysis in comparison with SWM topography based on the myelin content quantified with magnetization transfer ratio (MTR) for 39 areas in each hemisphere in 15 AD patients and 15 controls. The networks are represented by graphs, in which nodes correspond to the areas, and edges denote statistical associations between them. RESULTS: In both groups, the networks were characterized by asymmetrically distributed edges (predominantly in the left hemisphere). The AD-related differences were also leftward. The edges lost due to AD tended to connect nodes in the temporal lobe to other lobes or nodes within or between the latter lobes. The newly gained edges were mostly confined to the temporal and paralimbic regions, which manifest demyelination of SWM already in mild AD. CONCLUSION: This pattern suggests that the AD pathological process coordinates SWM demyelination in the temporal and paralimbic regions, but not elsewhere. A comparison of the MTR maps with MTR-based networks shows that although, in general, the changes in network architecture in AD recapitulate the topography of (de)myelination, some aspects of structural covariance (including the interhemispheric asymmetry of networks) have no immediate reflection in the myelination pattern.

Cis-trans interactions of cell surface receptors: biological roles and structural basis.

Cell surface receptors bind ligands expressed on other cells (in trans) in order to communicate with neighboring cells. However, an increasing number of cell surface receptors are found to also interact with ligands expressed on the same cell (in cis). These observations raise questions regarding the biological role of such cis interactions. Specifically, it is important to know whether cis and trans binding have distinct functional effects and, if so, how a single cell discriminates between interactions in cis versus trans. Further, what are the structural features that allow certain cell surface receptors to engage ligand both on the same as well as on an apposed cell membrane? Here, we summarize known examples of receptors that display cis-trans binding and discuss the emerging diversity of biological roles played by these unconventional two-way interactions, along with their structural basis.

Non-stationary job search when jobs are not forever: A structural estimation

This paper considers a job search model where the environment is notstationary along the unemployment spell and where jobs do not lastforever. Under this circumstance, reservation wages can be lower thanwithout separations, as in a stationary environment, but they can alsobe initially higher because of the non-stationarity of the model. Moreover,the time-dependence of reservation wages is stronger than with noseparations. The model is estimated structurally using Spanish data forthe period 1985-1996. The main finding is that, although the decrease inreservation wages is the main determinant of the change in the exit ratefrom unemployment for the first four months, later on the only effect comesfrom the job offer arrival rate, given that acceptance probabilities areroughly equal to one.

What is what?: A simple time-domain test of long-memory vs. structural breaks

This paper proposes a new time-domain test of a process being I(d), 0 < d = 1, under the null, against the alternative of being I(0) with deterministic components subject to structural breaks at known or unknown dates, with the goal of disentangling the existing identification issue between long-memory and structural breaks. Denoting by AB(t) the different types of structural breaks in the deterministic components of a time series considered by Perron (1989), the test statistic proposed here is based on the t-ratio (or the infimum of a sequence of t-ratios) of the estimated coefficient on yt-1 in an OLS regression of ?dyt on a simple transformation of the above-mentioned deterministic components and yt-1, possibly augmented by a suitable number of lags of ?dyt to account for serial correlation in the error terms. The case where d = 1 coincides with the Perron (1989) or the Zivot and Andrews (1992) approaches if the break date is known or unknown, respectively. The statistic is labelled as the SB-FDF (Structural Break-Fractional Dickey- Fuller) test, since it is based on the same principles as the well-known Dickey-Fuller unit root test. Both its asymptotic behavior and finite sample properties are analyzed, and two empirical applications are provided.

On the structural difference between the evolutionary approach of Young and that of Kandori, Mailath and Rob

We provide robust examples of symmetric two-player coordination games in normal form that reveal that equilibrium selection bythe evolutionary model of Young (1993) is essentially different from equilibrium selection by the evolutionary model of Kandori, Mailath and Rob (1993).

DNA structure-specific priming of ATR activation by DNA-PKcs.

Three phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase-related protein kinases implement cellular responses to DNA damage. DNA-dependent protein kinase catalytic subunit (DNA-PKcs) and ataxia-telangiectasia mutated respond primarily to DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs). Ataxia-telangiectasia and RAD3-related (ATR) signals the accumulation of replication protein A (RPA)-covered single-stranded DNA (ssDNA), which is caused by replication obstacles. Stalled replication intermediates can further degenerate and yield replication-associated DSBs. In this paper, we show that the juxtaposition of a double-stranded DNA end and a short ssDNA gap triggered robust activation of endogenous ATR and Chk1 in human cell-free extracts. This DNA damage signal depended on DNA-PKcs and ATR, which congregated onto gapped linear duplex DNA. DNA-PKcs primed ATR/Chk1 activation through DNA structure-specific phosphorylation of RPA32 and TopBP1. The synergistic activation of DNA-PKcs and ATR suggests that the two kinases combine to mount a prompt and specific response to replication-born DSBs.

Perceptual and semantic contributions to repetition priming of environmental sounds.

Repetition of environmental sounds, like their visual counterparts, can facilitate behavior and modulate neural responses, exemplifying plasticity in how auditory objects are represented or accessed. It remains controversial whether such repetition priming/suppression involves solely plasticity based on acoustic features and/or also access to semantic features. To evaluate contributions of physical and semantic features in eliciting repetition-induced plasticity, the present functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study repeated either identical or different exemplars of the initially presented object; reasoning that identical exemplars share both physical and semantic features, whereas different exemplars share only semantic features. Participants performed a living/man-made categorization task while being scanned at 3T. Repeated stimuli of both types significantly facilitated reaction times versus initial presentations, demonstrating perceptual and semantic repetition priming. There was also repetition suppression of fMRI activity within overlapping temporal, premotor, and prefrontal regions of the auditory "what" pathway. Importantly, the magnitude of suppression effects was equivalent for both physically identical and semantically related exemplars. That the degree of repetition suppression was irrespective of whether or not both perceptual and semantic information was repeated is suggestive of a degree of acoustically independent semantic analysis in how object representations are maintained and retrieved.

Identification of optimal structural connectivity using functional connectivity and neural modeling.

The complex network dynamics that arise from the interaction of the brain's structural and functional architectures give rise to mental function. Theoretical models demonstrate that the structure-function relation is maximal when the global network dynamics operate at a critical point of state transition. In the present work, we used a dynamic mean-field neural model to fit empirical structural connectivity (SC) and functional connectivity (FC) data acquired in humans and macaques and developed a new iterative-fitting algorithm to optimize the SC matrix based on the FC matrix. A dramatic improvement of the fitting of the matrices was obtained with the addition of a small number of anatomical links, particularly cross-hemispheric connections, and reweighting of existing connections. We suggest that the notion of a critical working point, where the structure-function interplay is maximal, may provide a new way to link behavior and cognition, and a new perspective to understand recovery of function in clinical conditions.

Compositional and structural variabilities of Mg-rich iron oxide spinels from tuffite

Maghemite (γFe2O3) from tuffite is exceptionally rich in Mg, relatively to most of those reportedly found in other mafic lithosystems. To investigate in detail the compositional and structural variabilities of this natural magnetic iron oxide, sets of crystals were isolated from samples collected at different positions in a tuffite weathering mantle. These sets of crystal were individually powdered and studied by X-ray diffractometry, Mössbauer spectroscopy, magnetization measurements and chemical analysis. Lattice parameter of the cubic cell (a0) was found to vary from 0.834(1) to 0.8412(1) nm. Lower a0-values are characteristic of maghemite whereas higher ones are related to a magnetite precursor. FeO content ranges up to 17 mass % and spontaneous magnetization ranges from 8 to 32 J T-1 kg-1. Zero-field room temperature Mössbauer spectra are rather complex, indicating that the hyperfine field distributions due to Fe3+ and mixed valence Fe3+/2+ overlap. The structural variabilities of the (Mg, Ti)-rich iron oxide spinels is essentially related to the range of chemical composition of its precursor (Mg, Ti)-rich magnetite, and probably to the extent to which it has been oxidized during transformation in soil.