Crime stories from the country of huopatossu and juhannusruusut : Translation strategies for Finnish cultural realia in the English translations of two of Matti Yrjänä Joensuu’s crime novels

Pro gradu –tutkielman aiheena on kulttuurin ominaispiirteiden kääntäminen. Teksteissä kulttuurin jälki voi näkyä monin eri tavoin. Tutkielman kohteena ovat erityisesti käännösstrategiat, joita kääntäjät käyttävät kohdatessaan kulttuurisidonnaisia viittauksia. Tutkielma nostaa esiin myös niitä tekijöitä, jotka vaikuttavat siihen, minkälaisia käännösstrategioita kääntäjät valitsevat. Näistä tekijöistä tutkielma keskittyy kääntämisen normeihin. Tutkielma pureutuu kulttuurisidonnaisten viitteiden kääntämiseen tarkastelemalla kahta suomalaista kaunokirjallista teosta ja niiden käännöksiä. Tutkielman aineistona ovat Matti Yrjänä Joensuun kaksi rikosromaania ja näiden käännökset. Teoksista toinen on vuonna 1983 suomeksi julkaistu Harjunpää ja poliisin poika, jonka englanninkielinen käännös Harjunpaa the stone murders julkaistiin vuonna 1986. Toinen teos on vuonna 2003 julkaistu Harjunpää ja pahan pappi ja sen käännös The Priest of Evil vuodelta 2006. Tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää, minkälaisia kulttuurisidonnaisia viittauksia romaanit sisälsivät, minkälaisia käännösstrategioita kääntäjät käyttivät kääntäessään näitä viittauksia ja mikä voisi selittää heidän strategisia valintojaan. Tutkielma pyrkii vastaamaan kysymykseen siitä, voisiko jonkin kääntämistä koskevan normin olemassa olo selittää kääntäjien strategisia valintoja. Tutkielman tavoitteena on myös selvittää, suositaanko kääntämisessä englannin kieleen niin kutsuttuja kotouttavia käännösstrategioita ja ovatko käännösstrategiat ja kääntämistä koskevat normit muuttuneet kahdenkymmenen vuoden aikana. Näihin kysymyksiin vastaamiseksi suomenkielisistä teksteistä on etsitty kaikki kulttuurisidonnaisia viittauksia sisältävät tekstinkohdat. Näitä vastaavat kohdat on sitten etsitty käännöksistä ja suomen- ja englanninkielisiä kohtia on vertailtu keskenään. Molemmat suomenkieliset romaanit sisältävät runsaasti kulttuurisidonnaisia viittauksia. Suurimman kulttuurisidonnaisten viittausten ryhmän muodostivat molemissa romaaneissa henkilöiden nimet. Romaanin sisälsivät myös runsaasti viittauksia maantieteeseen, erityisesti kulttuurimaantieteeseen, ja yhteiskuntaan. Sitä vastoin viittaukset suomalaiseen kulttuuriin ja historiaan olivat vähäisempiä. Tutkielma osoittaa, että kääntäessään suomesta englannin kielelle suomalaisen rikoskirjallisuuden kääntäjät saattavat käyttää enemmän vieraannuttavia strategioita kuin kotouttavia strategioita ja että he suosivat vieraannuttavia strategioita kasvavassa määrin. Harjunpään ja pahan papin kääntäjä käytti enemmän vieraannuttavia strategioita kuin Harjunpään ja poliisin pojan kääntäjä kaksikymmentä vuotta aikaisemmin. Tutkielman tulokset eivät tue väitettä siitä, että käännettäessä englannin kielelle suosittaisiin kotouttavia strategioita. Näyttää siltä, että vieraannuttavia strategioita on käytetty enemmän ja käytetään yhä enenevässä määrin. Lisääntyvän vieraannuttamisen taustalla voi olla useita syitä, kuten suomalaisen kulttuurin lisääntynyt tunnettuus maailmalla, rikosromaanin genren vaatimukset tai muutokset kääntäjäyhteisön arvoissa. Tutkielman tulosten perusteella näyttää siltä, että ainakin muutoksia normeissa ja arvoissa on tapahtunut. Lisätutkimuksen avulla voitaisiin selvittää, pätevätkö tutkielman tulokset muihin romaaneihin ja niiden käännöksiin tai muihin genreihin käännettäessä suomesta englantiin. Lisätutkimus voisi nojautua laajempaan ja erilaisia tekstejä kattavaan aineistoon. Jatkotutkimus voisi myös sisältää kääntäjien haastatteluita tai kyselyitä kääntäjille. Näiden avulla voitaisiin saada lisäselvyyttä syistä heidän strategisille valinnoilleen. Asiasanat: Käännöskirjallisuus – kaunokirjallisuus Kääntäminen – suomen kieli – englannin kieli Kääntäminen – strategia Kääntäminen - normi

A Touch of Red : Archaeological and Ethnographic Approaches to Interpreting Finnish Rock Paintings

Approximately 125 prehistoric rock paintings have been found in the modern territory of Finland. The paintings were done with red ochre and are almost without exception located on steep lakeshore cliffs associated with ancient water routes. Most of the sites are found in the central and eastern parts of the country, especially on the shores of Lakes Päijänne and Saimaa. Using shore displacement chronology, the art has been dated to ca. 5000 – 1500 BC. It was thus created mainly during the Stone Age and can be associated with the so-called ‘Comb Ware’ cultures of the Subneolithic period. The range of motifs is rather limited, consisting mainly of schematic depictions of stick-figure humans, elks, boats, handprints and geometric signs. Few paintings include any evidence of narrative scenes, making their interpretation a rather difficult task. In Finnish archaeological literature, the paintings have traditionally been associated with ’sympathetic’ hunting magic, or the belief that the ritual shooting of the painted animals would increase hunting luck. Some writers have also suggested totemistic and shamanistic readings of the art. This dissertation is a critical review of the interpretations offered of Finnish rock art and an exploration of the potentials of archaeological and ethnographic research in increasing our knowledge of its meaning. Methods used include ’formal’ approaches such as archaeological excavation, landscape analysis and the application of neuropsychological research to the study of rock art, as well as ethnographically ’informed’ approaches that make use of Saami and Baltic Finnish ethnohistorical sources in interpretation. In conclusion, it is argued that although North European hunter-gatherer rock art is often thought to lie beyond the reach of ‘informed’ knowledge, the exceptional continuity of prehistoric settlement in Finland validates the informed approach in the interpretation of Finnish rock paintings. The art can be confidently associated with shamanism of the kind still practiced by the Saami of Northern Fennoscandia in the historical period. Evidence of similar shamanistic practices, concepts and cosmology are also found in traditional Finnish-Karelian epic poetry. Previous readings of the art based on ‘hunting magic’ and totemism are rejected. Most of the paintings appear to depict experiences of falling into a trance, of shamanic metamorphosis and trance journeys, and of ‘spirit helper’ beings comparable to those employed by the Saami shaman (noaidi). As demonstrated by the results of an excavation at the rock painting of Valkeisaari, the painted cliffs themselves find a close parallel in the Saami cult of the 'sieidi', or sacred cliffs and boulders worshipped as expressing a supernatural power. Like the Saami, the prehistoric inhabitants of the Finnish Lake Region seem to have believed that certain cliffs were ’alive’ and inhabited by the spirit helpers of the shaman. The rock paintings can thus be associated with shamanic vision quests, and the making of ‘art’ with an effort to socialize the other members of the community, especially the ritual specialists, with trance visions. However, the paintings were not merely to be looked at. The red ochre handprints pressed on images of elks, as well as the fact that many paintings appear ’smeared’, indicate that they were also to be touched – perhaps in order to tap into the supernatural potency inherent in the cliff and in the paintings of spirit animals.

Establishment of an Australian mild onion industry - the sensory component

In recent years, there has been increasing interest from growers, merchants, supermarkets and consumers in the establishment of a national mild onion industry. Imperative to the success of the emergent industry is the application of the National Mild Onion Certification Scheme that will establish standards and recommendations to be met by growers to allow them to declare their product as certified mild onions. The use of sensory evaluation techniques has played an imperative role throughout the project timeline that has also included varietal evaluation, evaluation of current agronomic practices and correlation of chemical analysis data. Raw onion consumer acceptance testing on five different onion varieties established preferences amongst the varieties for odour, appearance, flavour, texture and overall and differences in the level of pungency and aftertaste perceived. Demographic information was obtained regarding raw and cooked onion use, frequency of consumption and responses to the idea of a mild, less pungent onion. Additionally, focus groups were conducted to further investigate consumer attitudes to onions. Currently, a trained onion panel is being established to evaluate several odour, flavour and aftertaste attributes. Sample assessments will be conducted in January 2004 and correlated with chemical analyses that will hopefully provide the corner-stone for the anticipated Certification Scheme.

Efficacy of multispecies pheromone lures for Carpophilus davidsoni Dobson and Carpophilus mutilatus Erichson (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae)

Orchard experiments were conducted in southern New South Wales to evaluate the efficacy of multispecies pheromone lures in trapping two economically important species of Carpophilus. Captures of Carpophilus davidsoni Dobson and Carpophilus mutilatus Erichson in traps baited with aggregation pheromones of both species or a three-way lure that also included the pheromone of Carpophilus hemipterus (L.) were not significantly different from captures in traps baited with conspecific pheromones. Carpophilus davidsoni and C. mutilatus were cross-attracted to traps baited with the pheromone of the other species, but numbers were significantly reduced compared with traps baited with conspecific or heterospecific pheromones. Multispecies lures will improve prospects for the commercial use of synthetic aggregation pheromones in Carpophilus beetle management in stone-fruit orchards.

An improved coattractant for pheromone trapping of Carpophilus spp. (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae)

Fermenting apple juice (FAJ) contained within polyacrylamide granules was an effective pheromone coattractant for Carpophilus davidsoni in trapping experiments conducted in stone fruit orchards in southern New South Wales. Fermenting apple juice-baited traps captured as many beetles as traps baited with the 'standard' coattractant fermenting bread dough (FBD), either alone or in combination with aggregation pheromone. Increasing the interval of FAJ replacement to 2 weeks instead of 1 week, as is necessary for FBD, did not reduce trapping efficiency. Replacement of FAJ every three weeks did not affect captures of C. davidsoni in one experiment but did reduce captures of Carpophilus mutilatus. In a second experiment, captures of C. davidsoni were also reduced. Fermenting apple juice contained within polyacrylamide granules replaced at fortnightly intervals is an effective, convenient and practical pheromone coattractant for Carpophilus spp.

Trap Design Effect on the Capture of Carpophilus spp. (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) Using Synthetic Aggregation Pheromones and a Coattractant

In a series of experiments conducted in stone fruit orchards in southern Australia, water-based funnel-type traps baited with synthetic aggregation pheromone and fermenting bread dough, trapped 3- to 7-fold as many Carpophihus beetles (primarily C. dauidsoni) than wind-oriented pipe traps or dry funnel traps. The efficacy of dry funnel traps but not pipe traps, appeared to be improved by using water-filled collecting bottles. The potential for using water-based funnel traps in population suppression of Carpophilus spp. in stone fruit orchards through mass trapping is discussed.

Kansallisvaltion teräsmiehestä valtakunnan sovittelijaksi : Poliisikulttuurin psykohistorialliset solmukohdat 1930-1997

From Steely Nation-State Superman to Conciliator of Economical Global Empire – A Psychohistory of Finnish Police Culture 1930-1997 My study concerns the way police culture has changed within the societal changes in Finnish society between 1930 and 1997. The method of my study was psycho-historical and post-structural analysis. The research was conducted by examining the psycho-historical plateaus traceable within Finnish police culture. I made a social diagnosis of the autopoietic relationship between the power-holders of Finnish society and the police (at various levels of hierarchical organization). According to police researcher John P. Crank, police culture should be understood as the cognitive processes behind the actions of the police. Among these processes are the values, beliefs, rituals, customs and advice which standardize their work and the common sense of policemen. According to Crank, police culture is defined by a mindset which thinks, judges and acts according to its evaluations filtered by its own preliminary comprehension. Police culture consists of all the unsaid assumptions of being a policeman, the organizational structures of police, official policies, unofficial ways of behaviour, forms of arrest, procedures of practice and different kinds of training habits, attitudes towards suspects and citizens, and also possible corruption. Police culture channels its members’ feelings and emotions. Crank says that police culture can be seen in how policemen express their feelings. He advises police researchers to ask themselves how it feels to be a member of the police. Ethos has been described as a communal frame for thought that guides one’s actions. According to sociologist Martti Grönfors, the Finnish mentality of the Protestant ethic is accentuated among Finnish policemen. The concept of ethos expresses very well the self-made mentality as an ethical tension which prevails in police work between communal belonging and individual freedom of choice. However, it is significant that it is a matter of the quality of relationships, and that the relationship is always tied to the context of the cultural history of dealing with one’s anxiety. According to criminologist Clifford Shearing, the values of police culture act as subterranean processes of the maintenance of social power in society. Policemen have been called microcosmic mediators, or street corner politicians. Robert Reiner argues that at the level of self-comprehension, policemen disparage the dimension of politics in their work. Reiner points out that all relationships which hold a dimension of power are political. Police culture has also been called a canteen culture. This idea expresses the day-to-day basis of the mentality of taking care of business which policing produces as a necessity for dealing with everyday hardships. According to police researcher Timo Korander, this figurative expression embodies the nature of police culture as a crew culture which is partly hidden from police chiefs who are at a different level. This multitude of standpoints depicts the diversity of police cultures. According to Reiner, one should not see police culture as one monolithic whole; instead one should assess it as the interplay of individuals negotiating with their environment and societal power networks. The cases analyzed formed different plateaus of study. The first plateau was the so-called ‘Rovaniemi arson’ case in the summer of 1930. The second plateau consisted of the examinations of alleged police assaults towards the Communists during the Finnish Continuation War of 1941 to 1944 and the threats that societal change after the war posed to Finnish Society. The third plateau was thematic. Here I investigated how using force towards police clients has changed culturally from the 1930s to the 1980s. The fourth plateau concerned with the material produced by the Security Police detectives traced the interaction between Soviet KGB agents and Finnish politicians during the long 1970s. The fifth plateau of larger changes in Finnish police culture then occurred during the 1980s as an aftermath of the former decade. The last, sixth plateau of changing relationships between policing and the national logic of action can be seen in the murder of two policemen in the autumn of 1997. My study shows that police culture has transformed from a “stone cold” steely fixed identity towards a more relational identity that tries to solve problems by negotiating with clients instead of using excessive force. However, in this process of change there is a traceable paradox in Finnish policing and police culture. On the one hand, policemen have, at the practical level, constructed their policing identity by protecting their inner self in their organizational role at work against the projections of anger and fear in society. On the other hand, however, they have had to safeguard themselves at the emotional level against the predominance of this same organizational role. Because of this dilemma they must simultaneously construct both a distance from their own role as police officers and the role of the police itself. This makes the task of policing susceptible to the political pressures of society. In an era of globalization, and after the heyday of the welfare state, this can produce heightened challenges for Finnish police culture.

Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Developing improved supply chains for temperate fruits in transitional Asian economies of Thailand and Vietnam.

Asia's increasing demand for both tropical and temperate fruit is projected to grow significantly. Compared with most developed countries, the production of temperate fruits (peach, nectarine, plum and apple) has expanded rapidly in China over the past 20 years. In contrast, current production of plums and peaches in neighbouring countries (Thailand and Vietnam) is very low but their fruit enters the market earlier. Thailand and Vietnam have enormous potential to satisfy a market window in the northern hemisphere period from March to May inclusive when there is little or no stone fruit on the Asian market. In Vietnam, fruit is harvested in an immature state to avoid disease and fruit fly problems and consequently lacks size and flavour. Approximately 30-40% of locally produced fruit in Vietnam does not reach market due to disease and poor handling during picking and transport. In Thailand, much of the infrastructure needed to transport, store, process and market temperate fruits successfully are now in place. However, there are currently no cool chain management or quality assurance systems to ensure a fresh product reaches the consumer with minimal deterioration. In Vietnam, growing stone fruit under the traditional system with little or minimal inputs, the farmer may receive between AUD3,000-5,000 per ha. In comparison, under higher input systems incorporating fertiliser, irrigation and pest and disease management, net returns can be increased seven-fold. Strengths and weaknesses of the current supply chains in these two countries are discussed.

Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall

The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.

Arkeologia, historialliset kartat ja paikkatieto

This licentiate thesis is composed of three parts, of which the parts 2 and 3 have been published elsewhere. Part 1 deals with the research history of large-scaled historical maps in Finland. The research done in four disciplines – archaeology, history, art history and geography – is summarized. Compared to the other disciplines, archaeology is characterized by its deep engagement with the location. Because archaeology studies different aspects of the past through material culture, it is the only discipline in which the concrete remains portrayed on the maps are “dug up”. For the archaeologist, historical maps are not merely historical documents with written information and drawings in scale, but actual maps which can be connected with the physical features they were made to illustrate in the first place. This aspect of historical maps is discussed in the work by looking at the early (17th and 18th century) urban cartographic material of two Finnish towns, Savonlinna and Vehkalahti-Hamina. In both cases, the GIS-based relocating of the historical maps highlights new aspects in the early development of the towns. Part 1 ends with a section in which the contents of the entire licentiate thesis are summarized. Part 2 is a peer reviewed article published in English. This article deals with the role of historical maps converted into GIS in archaeological surveys made in Finnish post-medieval towns (16th and 17th centuries). It is based on the surveys made by the author between 2000 and 2003 and introduces a new method for the archaeological surveying of post-medieval towns with wooden houses. The role of archaeology in the sphere of urban research is discussed. The article emphasizes that the methods used in studying the development of southern European towns with stone houses cannot be adequately applied to the wooden towns of the north. Part 3 is a monograph written in Finnish. It discusses large-scaled historical maps and the methods for producing digital spatial information based on historical maps. Since the late 1990’s, archaeological research in Finland has been increasingly directed towards the historical period. As a result, historical cartography has emerged as one of the central sources of information for the archaeologist, too. The main theme of this work is the need for using historical maps as real maps which, surprisingly, has been uncommon in the historical sciences. Projecting historical maps to the very place they were made to illustrate is essential to understanding the maps. This is self-evident for the archaeologist, who is accustomed to studying the material past, but less so to researchers in other historical disciplines that concentrate on written and visual sources of information. With the help of GIS, the historical maps can be concretely linked to the places they were originally made to illustrate. In doing so, and equipped with a cartographic comprehension, new observations can be made and questions asked, which supplement and occasionally challenge the prevailing views.

Actionable climate knowledge: From analysis to synthesis

The traditional reductionist approach to science has a tendency to create 'islands of knowledge in a sea of ignorance', with a much stronger focus on analysis of scientific inputs rather than synthesis of socially relevant outcomes. This might be the principal reason why intended end users of climate information generally fail to embrace what the climate science community has to offer. The translation of climate information into real-life action requires 3 essential components: salience (the perceived relevance of the information), credibility (the perceived technical quality of the information) and legitimacy (the perceived objectivity of the process by which the information is shared). We explore each of these components using 3 case studies focused on dryland cropping in Australia, India and Brazil. In regards to 'salience' we discuss the challenge for climate science to be 'policy-relevant', using Australian drought policy as an example. In a village in southern India 'credibility' was gained through engagement between scientists and risk managers with the aim of building social capital, achieved only at high cost to science institutions. Finally, in Brazil we found that 'legitimacy' is a fragile, yet renewable resource that needs to be part of the package for successful climate applications; legitimacy can be easily eroded but is difficult to recover. We conclude that climate risk management requires holistic solutions derived from cross-disciplinary and participatory, user-oriented research. Approaches that combine climate, agroecological and socioeconomic models provide the scientific capabilities for establishment of 'borderless' institutions without disciplinary constraints. Such institutions could provide the necessary support and flexibility to deliver the social benefits of climate science across diverse contexts. Our case studies show that this type of solution is already being applied, and suggest that the climate science community attempt to address existing institutional constraints, which still impede climate risk management.

Design thinking using a collaborative model for skin cancer prevention

Physical activity is well recognised as a means to reduce cancer risk; however, outdoor activity can increase sun exposure and consequential skin cancer risk. It is proposed, one of the key potential solutions to promote active lifestyles whilst enhancing protection against skin cancer is design resolution for active apparel that considers Australia’s sub-tropical climate whilst maintaining comfort, aesthetic appeal and performance. Using a design thinking approach, facilitated through collaboration between an NGO and a university, student designers were tasked with developing apparel prototypes to explore this challenge. Through practical ideation of problems, potential design solutions were developed within a modest NGO budget and adherence to specific brand guidelines. This project is novel as it demonstrates a low cost yet effective way of collaboratively creating a product to meet multiple needs, rather than reactively assessing already manufactured sun protection products for endorsement. It is a nimble and unique stepping stone in integrating sun safety considerations into clothing that is appealing to the population and creating cross-industry understandings of how design can better contribute to human health and wellbeing. Outcomes to be shared include empirical insights for updating sun safe clothing guidelines, issues around the aesthetic nature of sun safe apparel, and the role of design education for sun safety.

Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues

Grazing is a major land use in Australia's rangelands. The 'safe' livestock carrying capacity (LCC) required to maintain resource condition is strongly dependent on climate. We reviewed: the approaches for quantifying LCC; current trends in climate and their effect on components of the grazing system; implications of the 'best estimates' of climate change projections for LCC; the agreement and disagreement between the current trends and projections; and the adequacy of current models of forage production in simulating the impact of climate change. We report the results of a sensitivity study of climate change impacts on forage production across the rangelands, and we discuss the more general issues facing grazing enterprises associated with climate change, such as 'known uncertainties' and adaptation responses (e.g. use of climate risk assessment). We found that the method of quantifying LCC from a combination of estimates (simulations) of long-term (>30 years) forage production and successful grazier experience has been well tested across northern Australian rangelands with different climatic regions. This methodology provides a sound base for the assessment of climate change impacts, even though there are many identified gaps in knowledge. The evaluation of current trends indicated substantial differences in the trends of annual rainfall (and simulated forage production) across Australian rangelands with general increases in most of western Australian rangelands ( including northern regions of the Northern Territory) and decreases in eastern Australian rangelands and south-western Western Australia. Some of the projected changes in rainfall and temperature appear small compared with year-to-year variability. Nevertheless, the impacts on rangeland production systems are expected to be important in terms of required managerial and enterprise adaptations. Some important aspects of climate systems science remain unresolved, and we suggest that a risk-averse approach to rangeland management, based on the 'best estimate' projections, in combination with appropriate responses to short-term (1-5 years) climate variability, would reduce the risk of resource degradation. Climate change projections - including changes in rainfall, temperature, carbon dioxide and other climatic variables - if realised, are likely to affect forage and animal production, and ecosystem functioning. The major known uncertainties in quantifying climate change impacts are: (i) carbon dioxide effects on forage production, quality, nutrient cycling and competition between life forms (e.g. grass, shrubs and trees); and (ii) the future role of woody plants including effects of. re, climatic extremes and management for carbon storage. In a simple example of simulating climate change impacts on forage production, we found that increased temperature (3 degrees C) was likely to result in a decrease in forage production for most rangeland locations (e. g. -21% calculated as an unweighted average across 90 locations). The increase in temperature exacerbated or reduced the effects of a 10% decrease/increase in rainfall respectively (-33% or -9%). Estimates of the beneficial effects of increased CO2 (from 350 to 650 ppm) on forage production and water use efficiency indicated enhanced forage production (+26%). The increase was approximately equivalent to the decline in forage production associated with a 3 degrees C temperature increase. The large magnitude of these opposing effects emphasised the importance of the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of these components of climate change. We anticipate decreases in LCC given that the 'best estimate' of climate change across the rangelands is for a decline (or little change) in rainfall and an increase in temperature. As a consequence, we suggest that public policy have regard for: the implications for livestock enterprises, regional communities, potential resource damage, animal welfare and human distress. However, the capability to quantify these warnings is yet to be developed and this important task remains as a challenge for rangeland and climate systems science.

The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia

The complexity, variability and vastness of the northern Australian rangelands make it difficult to assess the risks associated with climate change. In this paper we present a methodology to help industry and primary producers assess risks associated with climate change and to assess the effectiveness of adaptation options in managing those risks. Our assessment involved three steps. Initially, the impacts and adaptation responses were documented in matrices by ‘experts’ (rangeland and climate scientists). Then, a modified risk management framework was used to develop risk management matrices that identified important impacts, areas of greatest vulnerability (combination of potential impact and adaptive capacity) and priority areas for action at the industry level. The process was easy to implement and useful for arranging and analysing large amounts of information (both complex and interacting). Lastly, regional extension officers (after minimal ‘climate literacy’ training) could build on existing knowledge provided here and implement the risk management process in workshops with rangeland land managers. Their participation is likely to identify relevant and robust adaptive responses that are most likely to be included in regional and property management decisions. The process developed here for the grazing industry could be modified and used in other industries and sectors. By 2030, some areas of northern Australia will experience more droughts and lower summer rainfall. This poses a serious threat to the rangelands. Although the impacts and adaptive responses will vary between ecological and geographic systems, climate change is expected to have noticeable detrimental effects: reduced pasture growth and surface water availability; increased competition from woody vegetation; decreased production per head (beef and wool) and gross margin; and adverse impacts on biodiversity. Further research and development is needed to identify the most vulnerable regions, and to inform policy in time to facilitate transitional change and enable land managers to implement those changes.