A stochastic model of temporal variations in monthly temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and resulting snowpack

We report a Monte Carlo representation of the long-term inter-annual variability of monthly snowfall on a detailed (1 km) grid of points throughout the southwest. An extension of the local climate model of the southwestern United States (Stamm and Craig 1992) provides spatially based estimates of mean and variance of monthly temperature and precipitation. The mean is the expected value from a canonical regression using independent variables that represent controls on climate in this area, including orography. Variance is computed as the standard error of the prediction and provides site-specific measures of (1) natural sources of variation and (2) errors due to limitations of the data and poor distribution of climate stations. Simulation of monthly temperature and precipitation over a sequence of years is achieved by drawing from a bivariate normal distribution. The conditional expectation of precipitation. given temperature in each month, is the basis of a numerical integration of the normal probability distribution of log precipitation below a threshold temperature (3°C) to determine snowfall as a percent of total precipitation. Snowfall predictions are tested at stations for which long-term records are available. At Donner Memorial State Park (elevation 1811 meters) a 34-year simulation - matching the length of instrumental record - is within 15 percent of observed for mean annual snowfall. We also compute resulting snowpack using a variation of the model of Martinec et al. (1983). This allows additional tests by examining spatial patterns of predicted snowfall and snowpack and their hydrologic implications.

The estimation of stochastic context-free grammars using the Inside-Outside algorithm

Using an entropy argument, it is shown that stochastic context-free grammars (SCFG's) can model sources with hidden branching processes more efficiently than stochastic regular grammars (or equivalently HMM's). However, the automatic estimation of SCFG's using the Inside-Outside algorithm is limited in practice by its O(n3) complexity. In this paper, a novel pre-training algorithm is described which can give significant computational savings. Also, the need for controlling the way that non-terminals are allocated to hidden processes is discussed and a solution is presented in the form of a grammar minimization procedure. © 1990.

Applications of stochastic context-free grammars using the Inside-Outside algorithm

This paper describes two applications in speech recognition of the use of stochastic context-free grammars (SCFGs) trained automatically via the Inside-Outside Algorithm. First, SCFGs are used to model VQ encoded speech for isolated word recognition and are compared directly to HMMs used for the same task. It is shown that SCFGs can model this low-level VQ data accurately and that a regular grammar based pre-training algorithm is effective both for reducing training time and obtaining robust solutions. Second, an SCFG is inferred from a transcription of the speech used to train a phoneme-based recognizer in an attempt to model phonotactic constraints. When used as a language model, this SCFG gives improved performance over a comparable regular grammar or bigram. © 1991.

APPROXIMATE GAUSS-MARKOV REALISATION OF MULTIVARIATE STOCHASTIC PROCESSES.

Given a spectral density matrix or, equivalently, a real autocovariance sequence, the author seeks to determine a finite-dimensional linear time-invariant system which, when driven by white noise, will produce an output whose spectral density is approximately PHI ( omega ), and an approximate spectral factor of PHI ( omega ). The author employs the Anderson-Faurre theory in his analysis.

Triggering in a thermoacoustic system with stochastic noise

This paper explores the mechanism of triggering in a simple thermoacoustic system, the Rijke tube. It is demonstrated that additive stochastic perturbations can cause triggering before the linear stability limit of a thermoacoustic system. When triggering from low noise amplitudes, the system is seen to evolve to self-sustained oscillations via an unstable periodic solution of the governing equations. Practical stability is introduced as a measure of the stability of a linearly stable state when finite perturbations are present. The concept of a stochastic stability map is used to demonstrate the change in practical stability limits for a system with a subcritical bifurcation, once stochastic terms are included. The practical stability limits are found to be strongly dependent on the strength of noise.