Statistical investigations - drawing it all together

The author's approach to teaching an integrative unit to a small group of master’s level Applied Statistics students in 2000-2001 is described. Details of the various activities such as data analysis, reading and discussion of papers, and training in consultancy skills are given, as also are details of the assessment. The students’ and lecturer’s views of the unit are discussed.

The Royal Statistical Society and statistical education

This paper describes the role of the Royal Statistical Society in shaping statistical education within the UK and further afield. Until 2001 the Society had four agencies concerned with education at all levels. The work of these is discussed and recent new arrangements are outlined. The Society’s efforts to disseminate good practice through organising meetings and running a network of Associate Schools and College are explored in some detail.

Optimization and finite element analysis for reliable electronic packaging

This paper demonstrates a modeling and design approach that couples computational mechanics techniques with numerical optimisation and statistical models for virtual prototyping and testing in different application areas concerning reliability of eletronic packages. The integrated software modules provide a design engineer in the electronic manufacturing sector with fast design and process solutions by optimizing key parameters and taking into account complexity of certain operational conditions. The integrated modeling framework is obtained by coupling the multi-phsyics finite element framework - PHYSICA - with the numerical optimisation tool - VisualDOC into a fully automated design tool for solutions of electronic packaging problems. Response Surface Modeling Methodolgy and Design of Experiments statistical tools plus numerical optimisaiton techniques are demonstrated as a part of the modeling framework. Two different problems are discussed and solved using the integrated numerical FEM-Optimisation tool. First, an example of thermal management of an electronic package on a board is illustrated. Location of the device is optimized to ensure reduced junction temperature and stress in the die subject to certain cooling air profile and other heat dissipating active components. In the second example thermo-mechanical simulations of solder creep deformations are presented to predict flip-chip reliability and subsequently used to optimise the life-time of solder interconnects under thermal cycling.

Computational approach for reliable and robust system-in-package design

A computational modelling approach integrated with optimisation and statistical methods that can aid the development of reliable and robust electronic packages and systems is presented. The design for reliability methodology is demonstrated for the design of a SiP structure. In this study the focus is on the procedure for representing the uncertainties in the package design parameters, their impact on reliability and robustness of the package design and how these can be included in the design optimisation modelling framework. The analysis of thermo-mechanical behaviour of the package is conducted using non-linear transient finite element simulations. Key system responses of interest, the fatigue life-time of the lead-free solder interconnects and warpage of the package, are predicted and used subsequently for design purposes. The design tasks are to identify the optimal SiP designs by varying several package input parameters so that the reliability and the robustness of the package are improved and in the same time specified performance criteria are also satisfied

Policy packages as potential routes to urban road pricing in the UK

This paper focuses on urban road pricing as a demand management policy that is often regarded as radical and generally unacceptable. Road pricing often gets delayed or abandoned due to low acceptability. This may be due to the fact that complex interactions and drivers of change affect road transport management and require cooperation within implementation networks. The implementation network is a group of people (referred to as partners and actors) who co-ordinate the introduction of policy tools. The drivers of change include any internal or external influences that have an effect on the time, place, or ‘shape’ of the policy measures being introduced. Demand management measures that focus on 'sustainable transport' usually address a limited set of objectives and are often implemented alone i.e. are not necessarily combined with other policy measures. When combined with other measures, it is not always clear whether the multiple interactions between policy tools and implementation networks have been sufficiently considered. Examples of ongoing implementation of policy package in the UK are the support of road pricing initiatives combined with public transport improvements by the Transport Innovation Fund. The objectives of the paper are twofold. First, we present a review of the UK urban road pricing situation. Second, we contrast the emerging issues against six key implementation factors. The analysis of three existing UK road pricing examples - London, Edinburgh and Durham – shows the importance of combining policy tools. Furthermore, through the above examples and theoretical arguments, we emphasise the additional need of creating and maintaining strong networks when implementing policy packages.

Statistical Techniques In Stereology

Stereology typically concerns estimation of properties of a geometric structure from plane section information. This paperprovides a brief review of some statistical aspects of this rapidly developing field, with some reference to applications in the earth sciences. After an introductory discussion of the scope of stereology, section 2 briefly mentions results applicable when no assumptions can be made about the stochastic nature of the sampled matrix, statistical considerations then arising solelyfrom the ‘randomness’ of the plane section. The next two sections postulate embedded particles of specific shapes, the particular case of spheres being discussed in some detail. References are made to results for ‘thin slices’ and other prob-ing mechanisms. Randomly located convex particles, of otherwise arbitrary shape, are discussed in section 5 and the review concludes with a specific application of stereological ideas to some data on neolithic mining.

Statistical Procedure For Estimating Grey Seal Pup Production From A Single Census

The variable start and duration of the Grey seal breeding season makes the estimation of total pup production from a single census very difficult. Classifying the count into morphological age classes enables the form and timing of the birth rate curve and estimates of pup mortality rates to be elucidated. A simulation technique is described which enables the duration of each morphological stage to be determined from a series of such classified counts taken over one season. A further statistical technique uses these estimates to calculate the mean timing and duration of the breeding season from a single classified count taken from similar populations in subsequent years. This information allows total pup production to be calculated for any appropriate breeding colony. Some guidance is given as to the optimal timing of that single census which would yield the best estimate of production, although the precise date is not critical to the success of the technique. Results from single census estimates obtained in this way are compared with known production data from more detailed surveys for a number of different colonies.