Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Comparison of the Salmonella/Microsome Microsuspension Assay with the new Microplate Fluctuation Protocol for Testing the Mutagenicity of Environmental Samples

The objective of this study was to compare the responses of the Salmonella/microsome microsuspension assay with the new microplate fluctuation protocol (MPF) for the evaluation of the mutagenic activity of environmental samples. Organic extracts of total particulate atmospheric air samples, surface waters, and effluents were tested in dose-response experiments. The assays were performed with strain TA98 in the absence and presence of S9 mix. Both protocols produced similar results, despite the fact that the maximum score of the MPF is limited to 48 wells, whereas in the regular plate assay it is possible to count up to 1,500 colonies using an automatic counter. Similar sensitivities based on the lowest dose that resulted in a positive response were obtained for both assays. The MPF procedure is less laborious (e.g., all-liquid format, use of multi-channel pipettors) and allows for automation of the pipetting and dispensing steps, thus, reducing time of the analysis which is particularly important in environmental quality monitoring programs or in effect-directed analysis. The results show that the MPF procedure is a promising tool to test environmental samples for mutagenic activity. Environ. Mol. Mutagen. 51:31-38, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Evaluation of flow regimes in a semi-cylindrical spouted bed through statistical, mutual information, spectral and Hurst`s analysis

Hydrodynamic studies were conducted in a semi-cylindrical spouted bed column of diameter 150 mm, height 1000 mm, conical base included angle of 60 degrees and inlet orifice diameter 25 mm. Pressure transducers at several axial positions were used to obtain pressure fluctuation time series with 1.2 and 2.4 mm glass beads at U/U-ms from 0.3 to 1.6, and static bed depths from 150 to 600 mm. The conditions covered several flow regimes (fixed bed, incipient spouting, stable spouting, pulsating spouting, slugging, bubble spouting and fluidization). Images of the system dynamics were also acquired through the transparent walls with a digital camera. The data were analyzed via statistical, mutual information theory, spectral and Hurst`s Rescaled Range methods to assess the potential of these methods to characterize the spouting quality. The results indicate that these methods have potential for monitoring spouted bed operation.

Stability Testing of Spray- and Spouted Bed-Dried Extracts of Passiflora alata

The aim of this research was to perform a stability testing of spray- and spouted bed-dried extracts of Passiflora alata Dryander (Passion flower) under stress storage conditions. Spouted bed- and spray-dried extracts were characterized by determination of the average particle diameter (dP), apparent moisture content (XP), total flavonoid content (TF), and vitexin content. Smaller and more irregular particles were generated by the spouted bed system due to a higher attrition rate (surface erosion) inside the dryer. The SB dryer resulted in an end product with higher concentration of flavonoids (approximate to 10%) and lower moisture content (1.6%, dry basis) than the spray dryer, even with both dryers working at similar inlet drying air temperature and ratio between the extract feed flow rate to drying air flow rate (Ws/Wg). Samples of the spouted bed- and spray-dried extracts were stored at two different temperatures (34 and 45 degrees C) and two different relative humidities (52 and 63% RH for 34 degrees C; 52 and 60% RH for 45 degrees C) in order to perform the stability testing. The dried extracts were stored for 28 days and were analyzed every 4 days. The flavonoid vitexin served as the marker compound, which was assayed during the storage period. Results revealed shelf lives ranging from 9 to 184 days, depending on the drying process and storage conditions.

Parameter setting and statistical learning

Three main models of parameter setting have been proposed: the Variational model proposed by Yang (2002; 2004), the Structured Acquisition model endorsed by Baker (2001; 2005), and the Very Early Parameter Setting (VEPS) model advanced by Wexler (1998). The VEPS model contends that parameters are set early. The Variational model supposes that children employ statistical learning mechanisms to decide among competing parameter values, so this model anticipates delays in parameter setting when critical input is sparse, and gradual setting of parameters. On the Structured Acquisition model, delays occur because parameters form a hierarchy, with higher-level parameters set before lower-level parameters. Assuming that children freely choose the initial value, children sometimes will miss-set parameters. However when that happens, the input is expected to trigger a precipitous rise in one parameter value and a corresponding decline in the other value. We will point to the kind of child language data that is needed in order to adjudicate among these competing models.

Task Complexity and Variation in L2 Learner’s Oral Discourse

There are many factors which affect the L2 learner’s performance at the levels of phonology, morphology and syntax. Consequently when L2 learners attempt to communicate in the target language, their language production will show systematic variability across the above mentioned linguistic domains. This variation can be attributed to some factors such as interlocutors, topic familiarity, prior knowledge, task condition, planning time and tasks types. This paper reports the results of an on going research investigating the issue of variability attributed to the task type. It is hypothesized that the particular type of task learners are required to perform will result in variation in their performance. Results of the statistical analyses of this study investigating the issue of variation in the performance of twenty L2 learners at the English department of Tabriz University provided evidence in support of the hypothesis that performance of L2 learners show systematic variability attributed to task.

Acquisition of the English article system in SLA and the Missing Surface Inflection Hypothesis

This paper examines the article system in interlanguage grammar focusing on Japanese learners of English, whose native language lacks articles. It will be demonstrated that for the acquisition of the English article system, count/mass distinctions and definiteness are the crucial factors. Although Japanese does not employ the article system to encode these aspects, it will be argued that they are nevertheless syntactically encoded through its classifier system. Hence, the problem for these learners must be to map these features onto the appropriate surface forms as the Missing Surface Inflection Hypothesis predicts (Prévost & White 2000). This suggestion will further be supported empirically by a fill-in-the article task. It will be concluded that these Japanese learners understand the English article system fairly well, possibly due to their native language, yet have problems with realizing the relevant features (i.e. count/mass distinctions and definiteness) in the target language.

Linearly-increasing-stress testing of carbon steel in 4 N NaNO3 and in Bayer liquor

This paper reports the application of linearly increasing stress testing (LIST) to the study of stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of carbon steel in 4 N NaNO3 and in Bayer liquor. LIST is similar to the constant extension-rate testing (CERT) methodology with the essential difference that the LIST is load controlled whereas the CERT is displacement controlled. The main conclusion is that LIST is suitable for the study of the SCC of carbon steels in 4 N NaNO3 and in Bayer liquor. The low crack velocity in Bayer liquor and a measured maximum stress close to that of the reference specimen in air both indicate that a low applied stress rate is required to study SCC in this system. (C) 1998 Chapman & Hall.

Regulation of photosynthetic pigments in micro-algae by multiple environmental factors: a dynamic balance hypothesis

Environmental effects on the concentration of photosynthetic pigments in micro-algae can be explained by dynamics of photosystem synthesis and deactivation. A model that couples photosystem losses to the relative cellular rates of energy harvesting (light absorption) and assimilation predicts optimal concentrations of light-harvesting pigments and balanced energy flow under environmental conditions that affect light availability and metabolic rates. Effects of light intensity, nutrient supply and temperature on growth rate and pigment levels were similar to general patterns observed across diverse micro-algal taxa. Results imply that dynamic behaviour associated with photophysical stress, and independent of gene regulation, might constitute one mechanism for photo-acclimation of photosynthesis.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - II. Testing simulation capabilities of wheat growth

To simulate cropping systems, crop models must not only give reliable predictions of yield across a wide range of environmental conditions, they must also quantify water and nutrient use well, so that the status of the soil at maturity is a good representation of the starting conditions for the next cropping sequence. To assess the suitability for this task a range of crop models, currently used in Australia, were tested. The models differed in their design objectives, complexity and structure and were (i) tested on diverse, independent data sets from a wide range of environments and (ii) model components were further evaluated with one detailed data set from a semi-arid environment. All models were coded into the cropping systems shell APSIM, which provides a common soil water and nitrogen balance. Crop development was input, thus differences between simulations were caused entirely by difference in simulating crop growth. Under nitrogen non-limiting conditions between 73 and 85% of the observed kernel yield variation across environments was explained by the models. This ranged from 51 to 77% under varying nitrogen supply. Water and nitrogen effects on leaf area index were predicted poorly by all models resulting in erroneous predictions of dry matter accumulation and water use. When measured light interception was used as input, most models improved in their prediction of dry matter and yield. This test highlighted a range of compensating errors in all modelling approaches. Time course and final amount of water extraction was simulated well by two models, while others left up to 25% of potentially available soil water in the profile. Kernel nitrogen percentage was predicted poorly by all models due to its sensitivity to small dry matter changes. Yield and dry matter could be estimated adequately for a range of environmental conditions using the general concepts of radiation use efficiency and transpiration efficiency. However, leaf area and kernel nitrogen dynamics need to be improved to achieve better estimates of water and nitrogen use if such models are to be use to evaluate cropping systems. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

The Swiss heroin trials: testing alternative approaches

Over half a million heroin misusers receive oral methadone maintenance treatment world-wide1 but the maintenance prescription of injectable opioid drugs, like heroin, remains controversial. In 1992 Switzerland began a large scale evaluation of heroin and other injectable opiate prescribing that eventually involved 1035 misusers. 2 3 The results of the evaluation have recently been reported.4 These show that it was feasible to provide heroin by intravenous injection at a clinic, up to three times a day, for seven days a week. This was done while maintaining good drug control, good order, client safety, and staff morale. Patients were stabilised on 500 to 600 mg heroin daily without evidence of increasing tolerance. Retention in treatment was 89% at six months and 69% at 18 months.4 The self reported use of non-prescribed heroin fell signifianctly, but other drug use was minimally affected. The death rate was 1% per year, and there were no deaths from overdose among participants . . . [Full text of this article]

Patient matching in treatment for alcohol dependence: is the null hypothesis still alive and well?

In the light of Project MATCH, is it reasonable to accept the null hypothesis that there are no clinically signi® cant matching effects between patient characteristics and cognitive± behaviour therapy (CBT), motivational enhancement therapy (MET) and Twelve-Step facilitation therapy (TSF)? The Project MATCH investigators considered the null hypothesis but preferred the alternative hypothesis that further analysis may reveal combinations of patient and therapist characteristics that show more substantial matching effects than any of the variables that they have examined to date.1

Formal derivation of finite state machines for class testing

Previous work on generating state machines for the purpose of class testing has not been formally based. There has also been work on deriving state machines from formal specifications for testing non-object-oriented software. We build on this work by presenting a method for deriving a state machine for testing purposes from a formal specification of the class under test. We also show how the resulting state machine can be used as the basis for a test suite developed and executed using an existing framework for class testing. To derive the state machine, we identify the states and possible interactions of the operations of the class under test. The Test Template Framework is used to formally derive the states from the Object-Z specification of the class under test. The transitions of the finite state machine are calculated from the derived states and the class's operations. The formally derived finite state machine is transformed to a ClassBench testgraph, which is used as input to the ClassBench framework to test a C++ implementation of the class. The method is illustrated using a simple bounded queue example.