Verification of European subseasonal wind speed forecasts

Analysis of the forecasts and hindcasts from the ECMWF 32-day forecast model reveals that there is statistically significant skill in predicting weekly mean wind speeds over areas of Europe at lead times of at least 14–20 days. Previous research on wind speed predictability has focused on the short- to medium-range time scales, typically finding that forecasts lose all skill by the later part of the medium-range forecast. To the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first to look beyond the medium-range time scale by taking weekly mean wind speeds, instead of averages at hourly or daily resolution, for the ECMWF monthly forecasting system. It is shown that the operational forecasts have high levels of correlation (~0.6) between the forecasts and observations over the winters of 2008–12 for some areas of Europe. Hindcasts covering 20 winters show a more modest level of correlation but are still skillful. Additional analysis examines the probabilistic skill for the United Kingdom with the application of wind power forecasting in mind. It is also shown that there is forecast “value” for end users (operating in a simple cost/loss ratio decision-making framework). End users that are sensitive to winter wind speed variability over the United Kingdom, Germany, and some other areas of Europe should therefore consider forecasts beyond the medium-range time scale as it is clear there is useful information contained within the forecast.

Centennial changes in the solar wind speed and in the open solar flux

We use combinations of geomagnetic indices, based on both variation range and hourly means, to derive the solar wind flow speed, the interplanetary magnetic field strength at 1 AU and the total open solar flux between 1895 and the present. We analyze the effects of the regression procedure and geomagnetic indices used by adopting four analysis methods. These give a mean interplanetary magnetic field strength increase of 45.1 ± 4.5% between 1903 and 1956, associated with a 14.4 ± 0.7% rise in the solar wind speed. We use averaging timescales of 1 and 2 days to allow for the difference between the magnetic fluxes threading the coronal source surface and the heliocentric sphere at 1 AU. The largest uncertainties originate from the choice of regression procedure: the average of all eight estimates of the rise in open solar flux is 73.0 ± 5.0%, but the best procedure, giving the narrowest and most symmetric distribution of fit residuals, yields 87.3 ± 3.9%.

Multiplexed femtomolar quantitation of human cytokines in a fluoropolymer microcapillary film

Sensitive quantitation of multiple cytokines can provide important diagnostic information during infection, inflammation and immunopathology. In this study sensitive immunoassay detection of human cytokines IL-1β, IL-6, IL-12p70 and TNFα is shown for singleplex and multiplex formats using a novel miniaturized ELISA platform. The platform uses a disposable plastic multi-syringe aspirator (MSA) integrating 8 disposable fluoropolymer microfluidic test strips, each containing an array of ten 200 mean i.d. microcapillaries coated with a set of monoclonal antibodies. Each MSA device thus performs 10 tests on 8 samples, delivering 80 measurements. Unprecedented levels of sensitivity were obtained with the novel fluoropolymer microfluidic material and simple colorimetric detection in a flatbed scanner. The limit of detection for singleplex detection ranged from 2.0 to 15.0 pg/ml, i.e. 35 and 713 femtomolar for singleplex cytokine detection, and the intra- and inter-assay coefficient of variation (CV) remained within 10%. In addition, a triplex immunoassay was developed for measuring IL-1β, IL-12p70 and TNFα simultaneously from a given sample in the pg/ml range. These assays permit high sensitivity measurement with rapid <15 min assay or detection from undiluted blood serum. The portability, speed and low-cost of this system are highly suited to point-of-care testing and field diagnostics applications.

Towards more precise sugar beet management based on geostatistical analysis of spatial variability within fields

Within-field variation in sugar beet yield and quality was investigated in three commercial sugar beet fields in the east of England to identify the main associated variables and to examine the possibility of predicting yield early in the season with a view to spatially variable management of sugar beet crops. Irregular grid sampling with some purposively-located nested samples was applied. It revealed the spatial variability in each sugar beet field efficiently. In geostatistical analyses, most variograms were isotropic with moderate to strong spatial dependency indicating a significant spatial variation in sugar beet yield and associated growth and environmental variables in all directions within each field. The Kriged maps showed spatial patterns of yield variability within each field and visual association with the maps of other variables. This was confirmed by redundancy analyses and Pearson correlation coefficients. The main variables associated with yield variability were soil type, organic matter, soil moisture, weed density and canopy temperature. Kriged maps of final yield variability were strongly related to that in crop canopy cover, LAI and intercepted solar radiation early in the growing season, and the yield maps of previous crops. Therefore, yield maps of previous crops together with early assessment of sugar beet growth may make an early prediction of within-field variability in sugar beet yield possible. The Broom’s Barn sugar beet model failed to account for the spatial variability in sugar yield, but the simulation was greatly improved when corrected for early canopy development cover and when the simulated yield was adjusted for weeds and plant population. Further research to optimize inputs to maximise sugar yield should target the irrigation and fertilizing of areas within fields with low canopy cover early in the season.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

Detection of a New Yellow Fever Virus Lineage Within the South American Genotype I in Brazil

Nucleotide sequences of two regions of the genomes of 11 yellow fever virus (YFV) samples isolated from monkeys or humans with symptomatic yellow fever (YF) in Brazil in 2000,2004, and 2008 were determined with the objective of establishing the genotypes and studying the genetic variation. Results of the Bayesian phylogenetic analysis showed that sequences generated from strains from 2004 and 2008 formed a new subclade within the clade 1 of the South American genotype I. The new subgroup is here designated as 1E. Sequences of YFV strains recovered in 2000 belong to the subclade 1D, which comprises previously characterized YFV strains from Brazil. Molecular dating analyses suggested that the new subclade 1E started diversifying from 1D about 1975 and that the most recent 2004-2008 isolates arose about 1985. J. Med. Virol. 82:175-185, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Skull Modularity in Neotropical Marsupials and Monkeys: Size Variation and Evolutionary Constraint and Flexibility

An organism is built through a series of contingent factors, yet it is determined by historical, physical, and developmental constraints. A constraint should not be understood as an absolute obstacle to evolution, as it may also generate new possibilities for evolutionary change. Modularity is, in this context, an important way of organizing biological information and has been recognized as a central concept in evolutionary biology bridging on developmental, genetics, morphological, biochemical, and physiological studies. In this article, we explore how modularity affects the evolution of a complex system in two mammalian lineages by analyzing correlation, variance/covariance, and residual matrices (without size variation). We use the multivariate response to selection equation to simulate the behavior of Eutheria and Metharia skulls in terms of their evolutionary flexibility and constraints. We relate these results to classical approaches based on morphological integration tests based on functional/developmental hypotheses. Eutherians (Neotropical primates) showed smaller magnitudes of integration compared with Metatheria (didelphids) and also skull modules more clearly delimited. Didelphids showed higher magnitudes of integration and their modularity is strongly influenced by within-groups size variation to a degree that evolutionary responses are basically aligned with size variation. Primates still have a good portion of the total variation based on size; however, their enhanced modularization allows a broader spectrum of responses, more similar to the selection gradients applied (enhanced flexibility). Without size variation, both groups become much more similar in terms of modularity patterns and magnitudes and, consequently, in their evolutionary flexibility. J. Exp. Zool. (Mol. Dev. Evol.) 314B:663-683, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Genetic variation and population structure of the endangered Hyacinth Macaw (Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus): implications for conservation

The Hyacinth Macaw (Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus) is one of 14 endangered species in the family Psittacidae occurring in Brazil, with an estimated total population of 6,500 specimens. We used nuclear molecular markers (single locus minisatellites and microsatellites) and 472 bp of the mitochondrial DNA control region to characterize levels of genetic variability in this species and to assess the degree of gene flow among three nesting sites in Brazil (Pantanal do Abobral, Pantanal de Miranda and Piaui). The origin of five apprehended specimens was also investigated. The results suggest that, in comparison to other species of parrots, Hyacinth Macaws possess relatively lower genetic variation and that individuals from two different localities within the Pantanal (Abobral and Miranda) belong to a unique interbreeding population and are genetically distinct at nuclear level from birds from the state of Piaui. The analyses of the five apprehended birds suggest that the Pantanal is not the source of birds for illegal trade, but their precise origin could not be assigned. The low genetic variability detected in the Hyacinth Macaw does not seem to pose a threat to the survival of this species. Nevertheless, habitat destruction and nest poaching are the most important factors negatively affecting their populations in the wild. The observed genetic structure emphasizes the need of protection of Hyacinth Macaws from different regions in order to maintain the genetic diversity of this species.

Craniometric Similarities Within and Between Human Populations in Comparison with Neutral Genetic Data

The statement that pairs of individuals from different populations are often more genetically similar than pairs from the same population is a widespread idea inside and outside the scientific community. Witherspoon et al. [""Genetic similarities within and between human populations,"" Genetics 176:351-359 (2007)] proposed an index called the dissimilarity fraction (omega) to access in a quantitative way the validity of this statement for genetic systems. Witherspoon demonstrated that, as the number of loci increases, omega decreases to a point where, when enough sampling is available, the statement is false. In this study, we applied the dissimilarity fraction to Howells`s craniometric database to establish whether or not similar results are obtained for cranial morphological traits. Although in genetic studies thousands of loci are available, Howells`s database provides no more than 55 metric traits, making the contribution of each variable important. To cope with this limitation, we developed a routine that takes this effect into consideration when calculating. omega Contrary to what was observed for the genetic data, our results show that cranial morphology asymptotically approaches a mean omega of 0.3 and therefore supports the initial statement-that is, that individuals from the same geographic region do not form clear and discrete clusters-further questioning the idea of the existence of discrete biological clusters in the human species. Finally, by assuming that cranial morphology is under an additive polygenetic model, we can say that the population history signal of human craniometric traits presents the same resolution as a neutral genetic system dependent on no more than 20 loci.

Disruption of the circadian clock within the cardiomyocyte influences myocardial contractile function, metabolism, and gene expression

Virtually every mammalian cell, including cardiomyocytes, possesses an intrinsic circadian clock. The role of this transcriptionally based molecular mechanism in cardiovascular biology is poorly understood. We hypothesized that the circadian clock within the cardiomyocyte influences diurnal variations in myocardial biology. We, therefore, generated a cardiomyocyte-specific circadian clock mutant (CCM) mouse to test this hypothesis. At 12 wk of age, CCM mice exhibit normal myocardial contractile function in vivo, as assessed by echocardiography. Radiotelemetry studies reveal attenuation of heart rate diurnal variations and bradycardia in CCM mice (in the absence of conduction system abnormalities). Reduced heart rate persisted in CCM hearts perfused ex vivo in the working mode, highlighting the intrinsic nature of this phenotype. Wild-type, but not CCM, hearts exhibited a marked diurnal variation in responsiveness to an elevation in workload (80 mmHg plus 1 mu M epinephrine) ex vivo, with a greater increase in cardiac power and efficiency during the dark (active) phase vs. the light (inactive) phase. Moreover, myocardial oxygen consumption and fatty acid oxidation rates were increased, whereas cardiac efficiency was decreased, in CCM hearts. These observations were associated with no alterations in mitochondrial content or structure and modest mitochondrial dysfunction in CCM hearts. Gene expression microarray analysis identified 548 and 176 genes in atria and ventricles, respectively, whose normal diurnal expression patterns were altered in CCM mice. These studies suggest that the cardiomyocyte circadian clock influences myocardial contractile function, metabolism, and gene expression.

Intraspecific sequence variation in 16S rRNA gene of Ureaplasma diversum isolates

Ureaplasma diversum infection in bulls may result in seminal vesiculitis, balanoposthitis and alterations in spermatozoids. In cows, it can cause placentitis, fetal alveolitis, abortion and the birth of weak calves. U. diversum ATCC 49782 (serogroups A), ATCC 49783 (serogroup C) and 34 field isolates were used for this study. These microorganisms were submitted to Polymerase Chain Reaction for 16S gene sequence determination using Tact High Fidelity and the products were purified and bi-directionally sequenced. Using the sequence obtained, a fragment containing four hypervariable regions was selected and nucleotide polymorphisms were identified based on their position within the 16S rRNA gene. Forty-four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) were detected. The genotypic variability of the 16S rRNA gene of U. diversum isolates shows that the taxonomy classification of these organisms is likely much more complex than previously described and that 16S rRNA gene sequencing may be used to suggest an epidemiologic pattern of different origin strains. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Atmosphere and hydrological controls of the evapotranspiration over a floodplain forest in the Bananal Island region, Amazonia

This article discusses seasonal and interannual variations of the evapotranspiration (ET) rates in Bananal Island floodplain, Brazil. Measurements included ET and sensible heat flux using the eddy covariance method, atmospheric forcings (net radiation, Rn, vapor pressure deficit, VPD, wind speed and air temperature), soil moisture profiles, groundwater level and flood height, taken from November 2003 to December 2006. For the hydrological years (October-September) of 2003/2004, 2004/2005 and 2005/2006, the accumulated precipitation was 1692, 1471, 1914 mm and the accumulated ET was 1361, 1318 and 1317 mm, respectively. Seasonal analyses indicated that ET decreased in the dry season (average 3.7 mm day(-1)), despite the simultaneous increase in Rn, air temperature and VPD. The increase of ET in the wet season and particularly in the flood period (average 4.1 mm day(-1)) showed that the free water surface evaporation strongly influenced the energy exchange. Soil moisture, which was substantially depleted during the dry season, and adaptative vegetation mechanisms such as leaf senescence contributed to limit the dry season ET. Strong drainage within permeable sandy soils helped to explain the soil moisture depletion. These results suggest that the Bananal flooding area shows a different pattern in relation to the upland Amazon forests, being more similar to the savanna strictu senso areas in central Brazil. For example, seasonal ET variation was not in phase with Rn; the wet season ET was higher than the dry season ET; and the system stored only a tiny memory of the flooding period, being sensitive to extended drought periods.

Energy Analysis within Industrial Hydraulics and Correspondent Solar PV System Design

Energy efficiency and renewable energy use are two main priorities leading to industrial sustainability nowadays according to European Steel Technology Platform (ESTP). Modernization efforts can be done by industries to improve energy consumptions of the production lines. These days, steel making industrial applications are energy and emission intensive. It was estimated that over the past years, energy consumption and corresponding CO2 generation has increased steadily reaching approximately 338.15 parts per million in august 2010 [1]. These kinds of facts and statistics have introduced a lot of room for improvement in energy efficiency for industrial applications through modernization and use of renewable energy sources such as solar Photovoltaic Systems (PV).The purpose of this thesis work is to make a preliminary design and simulation of the solar photovoltaic system which would attempt to cover the energy demand of the initial part of the pickling line hydraulic system at the SSAB steel plant. For this purpose, the energy consumptions of this hydraulic system would be studied and evaluated and a general analysis of the hydraulic and control components performance would be done which would yield a proper set of guidelines contributing towards future energy savings. The results of the energy efficiency analysis showed that the initial part of the pickling line hydraulic system worked with a low efficiency of 3.3%. Results of general analysis showed that hydraulic accumulators of 650 liter size should be used by the initial part pickling line system in combination with a one pump delivery of 100 l/min. Based on this, one PV system can deliver energy to an AC motor-pump set covering 17.6% of total energy and another PV system can supply a DC hydraulic pump substituting 26.7% of the demand. The first system used 290 m2 area of the roof and was sized as 40 kWp, the second used 109 m2 and was sized as 15.2 kWp. It was concluded that the reason for the low efficiency was the oversized design of the system. Incremental modernization efforts could help to improve the hydraulic system energy efficiency and make the design of the solar photovoltaic system realistically possible. Two types of PV systems where analyzed in the thesis work. A method was found calculating the load simulation sequence based on the energy efficiency studies to help in the PV system simulations. Hydraulic accumulators integrated into the pickling line worked as energy storage when being charged by the PV system as well.

Variation of System Performance with Design and Climate for Combisystems in Sweden

In Sweden, 90% of the solar heating systems are solar domestic hot water and heating systems (SDHW&H), so called combisystems. These generally supply most of the domestic hot water needs during the summer and have enough capacity to supply some energy to the heating system during spring and autumn. This paper describes a standard Swedish combisystem and how the output from it varies with heating load, climate within Sweden, and how it can be increased with improved system design. A base case is defined using the standard combi- system, a modern Swedish single family house and the climate of Stockholm. Using the simulation program Trnsys, parametric studies have been performed on the base case and improved system designs. The solar fraction could be increased from 17.1% for the base case to 22.6% for the best system design, given the same system size, collector type and load. A short analysis of the costs of changed system design is given, showing that payback times for additional investment are from 5-8 years. Measurements on system components in the laboratory have been used to verify the simulation models used. More work is being carried out in order to find even better system designs, and further improvements in system performance are expected.

Genetic heterogeneity of within-family variance of body weight in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

BACKGROUND: Canalization is defined as the stability of a genotype against minor variations in both environment and genetics. Genetic variation in degree of canalization causes heterogeneity of within-family variance. The aims of this study are twofold: (1) quantify genetic heterogeneity of (within-family) residual variance in Atlantic salmon and (2) test whether the observed heterogeneity of (within-family) residual variance can be explained by simple scaling effects. RESULTS: Analysis of body weight in Atlantic salmon using a double hierarchical generalized linear model (DHGLM) revealed substantial heterogeneity of within-family variance. The 95% prediction interval for within-family variance ranged from ~0.4 to 1.2 kg2, implying that the within-family variance of the most extreme high families is expected to be approximately three times larger than the extreme low families. For cross-sectional data, DHGLM with an animal mean sub-model resulted in severe bias, while a corresponding sire-dam model was appropriate. Heterogeneity of variance was not sensitive to Box-Cox transformations of phenotypes, which implies that heterogeneity of variance exists beyond what would be expected from simple scaling effects. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial heterogeneity of within-family variance was found for body weight in Atlantic salmon. A tendency towards higher variance with higher means (scaling effects) was observed, but heterogeneity of within-family variance existed beyond what could be explained by simple scaling effects. For cross-sectional data, using the animal mean sub-model in the DHGLM resulted in biased estimates of variance components, which differed substantially both from a standard linear mean animal model and a sire-dam DHGLM model. Although genetic differences in canalization were observed, selection for increased canalization is difficult, because there is limited individual information for the variance sub-model, especially when based on cross-sectional data. Furthermore, potential macro-environmental changes (diet, climatic region, etc.) may make genetic heterogeneity of variance a less stable trait over time and space.