Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil de Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Detecting and evaluating land cover change in the eastern half of East Timor (1972-2011)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Assessing the impacts of land use and land cover change on hydrology of watershed: a case study on Gigel-Abbay Watershed, Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Long-term behaviour of railway transitions under dynamic loading application to soft soil sites

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Civil

Influence of abiotic stress factors on VOCs emission from Portuguese rice paddy fields: relation with increased climate change

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente Perfil de Gestão de Sistemas Ambientais

Clearing the cloudy crystal balls: Hybrid modelling for energy and climate change mitigation scenarios – A case study for Portugal

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ambiente

Chemical and physical attributes and calcium, magnesium, potassium, and phosphorus in the soil of murundu fields in Brazil

Fields of murundus (FM) are wetlands that provide numerous ecosystem services. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the chemical [organic carbon (OC), P, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Al3+ and H+Al] and physical [texture and bulk density (Bd)] soil attributes and calculate the organic matter (OM) and nutrient stock (P, Ca, Mg, and K) in soils of FM located in the Guapore River basin in Mato Grosso. Thirty-six sampling points were selected, and soil samples were collected from two environments: the murundu and plain area surrounding (PAS). At each sampling point, mini trenches of 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.4 m were opened and disturbed and undisturbed soil samples were collected at depths of 0-0.1, 0.1-0.2, and 0.2-0.4 m. In the Principal Component Analysis the variables H+Al (49%) and OM (4%) were associated with the F1 component and sand content (47%) with the F2 component. The FM had lower pH values and higher concentrations of K+, P, and H+Al than PAS at all depths (p < 0.05). Additionally, FM stocked up to 433, 360, 205, and 11 kg ha-1 of Ca, Mg, K, and P, respectively, for up to a depth of 0.2 m. The murundu stored two times more K and three times more P than that in the PAS. Our results show that the FM has high sand content and Bd greater than 1.5 Mg m-3, high acidity, low OC content, and low nutrient concentrations. Thus, special care must be taken to preserve FM such that human intervention does not trigger environmental imbalances.

Effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization on biomass and secondary metabolites of some plant species with pharmacological interes under greenhouse conditions

RESUMEN El aumento del CO2 atmosférico debido al cambio global y/o a las prácticas hortícolas promueve efectos directos sobre crecimiento vegetal y el desarrollo. Estas respuestas pueden ocurrir en ecosistemas naturales, pero también se pueden utilizar para aumentar la producción de algunas plantas y de algunos compuestos secundarios. El actual trabajo intenta estudiar los efectos del enriquecimiento atmosférico del CO2 bajo condiciones de invernadero en el crecimiento y la concentración y la composición de metabolitos secundarios de Taxus bacatta, Hypericum perforatum y Echinacea purpurea en condiciones ambientales mediterráneas. La fertilización del CO2 muestra perspectivas interesantes para la mejorara y aplicabilidad de técnicas hortícolas para aumentar productividad de plantas medicinales, a pesar de diferencias claras entre la especie. En general esta técnica promueve aumentos importantes y significativos en producción primaria y, en algunos casos, también en compuestos secundarios. Esto tiene una gran importancia hortícola porque la productividad a nivel de cosecha total aumenta, directamente porque se aumenta la concentración e indirectamente porque se aumenta la biomasa. SUMMARY The increase of atmospheric CO2 due to global change and/or horticultural practices promotes direct effects on plant growth and development. These responses may occur in natural ecosystems, but also can be used to increase the production of some plants and some secondary compounds. Present work tries to study the effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment under greenhouse conditions on growth and in the concentration and composition of secondary metabolites of Taxus bacatta, Hypericum perforatum and Echinacea purpurea under Mediterranean environmental conditions. CO2 fertilization shows interesting perspectives to increase and improve horticultural techniques in order to increase plant medicinal productivity, in spite of clear differences among the species. In general this technique promotes important and significant increases in primary productivity and, in some cases, also in secondary compounds. This has a great horticultural relevance because the total productivity of this kind of products increase at crop level, directly because concentration is increased and /or indirectly because biomass is increased. RESUM L'augment del CO2 atmosfèric a causa del canvi global i/o a les pràctiques hortícoles promou efectes directes sobre creixement vegetal i el desenvolupament. Aquestes respostes poden ocórrer en ecosistemes naturals, però també es poden utilitzar per a augmentar la producció d'algunes plantes i d'alguns compostos secundaris. L'actual treball intenta estudiar els efectes de l'enriquiment atmosfèric del CO2 sota condicions d'hivernacle en el creixement i la concentració i la composició de metabòlits secundaris de Taxus bacatta, Hypericum perforatum i Echinacea purpurea en condicions ambientals mediterrànies. La fertilització del CO2 mostra perspectives interessants per a la millora i aplicabilitat de tècniques hortícoles per a augmentar productivitat de plantes medicinals, a pesar de diferències clares entre l'espècie. En general aquesta tècnica promou augments importants i significatius en producció primària i, en alguns casos, també en compostos secundaris. Això té una gran importància hortícola perquè la productivitat a nivell de collita total augmenta, directament perquè s'augmenta la concentració i indirectament perquè s'augmenta la biomassa.

Optimal Climate Change Policies When Governments Cannot Commit

This paper examines the optimal design of climate change policies in the context where governments want to encourage the private sector to undertake significant immediate investment in developing cleaner technologies, but the carbon taxes and other environmental policies that could in principle stimulate such investment will be imposed over a very long future. The conventional claim by environmental economists is that environmental policies alone are sufficient to induce firms to undertake optimal investment. However this argument requires governments to be able to commit to these future taxes, and it is far from clear that governments have this degree of commitment. We assume instead that governments cannot commit, and so both they and the private sector have to contemplate the possibility of there being governments in power in the future that give different (relative) weights to the environment. We show that this lack of commitment has a significant asymmetric effect. Compared to the situation where governments can commit it increases the incentive of the current government to have the investment undertaken, but reduces the incentive of the private sector to invest. Consequently governments may need to use additional policy instruments – such as R&D subsidies – to stimulate the required investment.

Forecasting the European Carbon Market

In an effort to meet its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol, in 2005 the European Union introduced a cap-and-trade scheme where mandated installations are allocated permits to emit CO2. Financial markets have developed that allow companies to trade these carbon permits. For the EU to achieve reductions in CO2 emissions at a minimum cost, it is necessary that companies make appropriate investments and policymakers design optimal policies. In an effort to clarify the workings of the carbon market, several recent papers have attempted to statistically model it. However, the European carbon market (EU ETS) has many institutional features that potentially impact on daily carbon prices (and associated nancial futures). As a consequence, the carbon market has properties that are quite different from conventional financial assets traded in mature markets. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging (DMA) in order to forecast in this newly-developing market. DMA is a recently-developed statistical method which has three advantages over conventional approaches. First, it allows the coefficients on the predictors in a forecasting model to change over time. Second, it allows for the entire fore- casting model to change over time. Third, it surmounts statistical problems which arise from the large number of potential predictors that can explain carbon prices. Our empirical results indicate that there are both important policy and statistical bene ts with our approach. Statistically, we present strong evidence that there is substantial turbulence and change in the EU ETS market, and that DMA can model these features and forecast accurately compared to conventional approaches. From a policy perspective, we discuss the relative and changing role of different price drivers in the EU ETS. Finally, we document the forecast performance of DMA and discuss how this relates to the efficiency and maturity of this market.

Anatomy of contaminated aquifers of an industrial site: insights from the stable isotope compositions of waters and dissolved inorganic carbon

The hydrogen and oxygen isotopes of water and the carbon isotope composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from different aquifers at an industrial site, highly contaminated by organic pollutants representing residues of the former gas production, have been used as natural tracers to characterize the hydrologic system. On the basis of their stable isotope compositions as well as the seasonal variations, different groups of waters (precipitation, surface waters, groundwaters and mineral waters) as well as seasonably variable processes of mixing between these waters can clearly be distinguished. In addition, reservoir effects and infiltration rates can be estimated. In the northern part of the site an influence of uprising mineral waters within the Quaternary aquifers, presumably along a fault zone, can be recognized. Marginal infiltration from the Neckar River in the cast and surface water infiltration adjacent to a steep hill on the western edge of the site with an infiltration rate of about one month can also be resolved through the seasonal variation. Quaternary aquifers closer to the centre of the site show no seasonal variations, except for one borehole close to a former mill channel and another borehole adjacent to a rain water channel. Distinct carbon isotope compositions and concentrations of DIC for these different groups of waters reflect variable influence of different components of the natural carbon cycle: dissolution of marine carbonates in the mineral waters, biogenic, soil-derived CO2 in ground- and surface waters, as well as additional influence of atmospheric CO2 for the surface waters. Many Quaternary aquifer waters have, however, distinctly lower delta(13)C(DIC) values and higher DIC concentrations compared to those expected for natural waters. Given the location of contaminated groundwaters at this site but also in the industrially well-developed valley outside of this site, the most likely source for the low C-13(DIC) values is a biodegradation of anthropogenic organic substances, in particular the tar oils at the site.

The Committee on Climate Change: A policy analysis

Domestic action on climate change is increasingly important in the light of the difficulties with international agreements and requires a combination of solutions, in terms of institutions and policy instruments. One way of achieving government carbon policy goals may be the creation of an independent body to advise, set or monitor policy. This paper critically assesses the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which was created in 2008 as an independent body to help move the UK towards a low carbon economy. We look at the motivation for its creation in terms of: information provision, advice, monitoring, or policy delegation. In particular we consider its ability to overcome a time inconsistency problem by comparing and contrasting it with another independent body, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. In practice the Committee on Climate Change appears to be the ‘inverse’ of the Monetary Policy Committee, in that it advises on what the policy goal should be rather than being responsible for achieving it. The CCC incorporates both advisory and monitoring functions to inform government and achieve a credible carbon policy over a long time frame. This is a similar framework to that adopted by Stern (2006), but the CCC operates on a continuing basis. We therefore believe the CCC is best viewed as a "Rolling Stern plus" body. There are also concerns as to how binding the budgets actually are and how the budgets interact with other energy policy goals and instruments, such as Renewable Obligation Contracts and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. The CCC could potentially be reformed to include: an explicit information provision role; consumption-based accounting of emissions and control of a policy instrument such as a balanced-budget carbon tax.

Carbon dioxide in scree slope deposits: A pathway from atmosphere to pedogenic carbonate

A continuum of carbon, from atmospheric CO2 to secondary calcium carbonate, has been studied in a soil associ- ated with scree slope deposits in the Jura Mountains of Switzerland. This approach is based on former studies conducted in other environments. This C continuum includes atmospheric CO2, soil organic matter (SOM), soil CO2, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in soil solutions, and secondary pedogenic carbonate. Soil parameters (pCO2, temperature, pH, Cmin and Corg contents), soil solution chemistry, and isotopic compositions of soil CO2, DIC, carbonate and soil organic matter (δ13CCO2, δ13CDIC, δ13Ccar and δ13CSOM values) have been monitored at different depths (from 20 to 140 cm) over one year. Results demonstrated that the carbon source in secondary carbonate (mainly needle fiber calcite) is related to the dissolved inorganic carbon, which is strongly dependent on soil respiration. The heterotrophic respiration, rather than the limestone parent material, seems to control the pedogenic carbon cycle. The correlation of δ13Corg values with Rock-Eval HI and OI indices demonstrates that, in a soil associated to scree slope deposits, the main process responsible for 13C-enrichment in SOM is related to bac- terial oxidative decarboxylation. Finally, precipitation of secondary calcium carbonate is enhanced by changes in soil pCO2 associated to the convective movement of air masses induced by temperature gradients (heat pump effect) in the highly porous scree slope deposits. The exportation of soil C-leachates from systems such as the one studied in this paper could partially explain the "gap in the European carbon budget" reported by recent studies.

Predicting community and ecosystem outcomes of mycorrhizal responses to global change.

Mycorrhizal symbioses link the biosphere with the lithosphere by mediating nutrient cycles and energy flow though terrestrial ecosystems. A more mechanistic understanding of these plant-fungal associations may help ameliorate anthropogenic changes to C and N cycles and biotic communities. We explore three interacting principles: (1) optimal allocation, (2) biotic context and (3) fungal adaptability that may help predict mycorrhizal responses to carbon dioxide enrichment, nitrogen eutrophication, invasive species and land-use changes. Plant-microbial feedbacks and thresholds are discussed in light of these principles with the goal of generating testable hypotheses. Ideas to develop large-scale collaborative research efforts are presented. It is our hope that mycorrhizal symbioses can be effectively integrated into global change models and eventually their ecology will be understood well enough so that they can be managed to help offset some of the detrimental effects of anthropogenic environmental change.