A solution for estimates in software development projects

The Corporate world is becoming more and more competitive. This leads organisations to adapt to this reality, by adopting more efficient processes, which result in a decrease in cost as well as an increase of product quality. One of these processes consists in making proposals to clients, which necessarily include a cost estimation of the project. This estimation is the main focus of this project. In particular, one of the goals is to evaluate which estimation models fit the Altran Portugal software factory the most, the organization where the fieldwork of this thesis will be carried out. There is no broad agreement about which is the type of estimation model more suitable to be used in software projects. Concerning contexts where there is plenty of objective information available to be used as input to an estimation model, model-based methods usually yield better results than the expert judgment. However, what happens more frequently is not having this volume and quality of information, which has a negative impact in the model-based methods performance, favouring the usage of expert judgement. In practice, most organisations use expert judgment, making themselves dependent on the expert. A common problem found is that the performance of the expert’s estimation depends on his previous experience with identical projects. This means that when new types of projects arrive, the estimation will have an unpredictable accuracy. Moreover, different experts will make different estimates, based on their individual experience. As a result, the company will not directly attain a continuous growing knowledge about how the estimate should be carried. Estimation models depend on the input information collected from previous projects, the size of the project database and the resources available. Altran currently does not store the input information from previous projects in a systematic way. It has a small project database and a team of experts. Our work is targeted to companies that operate in similar contexts. We start by gathering information from the organisation in order to identify which estimation approaches can be applied considering the organization’s context. A gap analysis is used to understand what type of information the company would have to collect so that other approaches would become available. Based on our assessment, in our opinion, expert judgment is the most adequate approach for Altran Portugal, in the current context. We analysed past development and evolution projects from Altran Portugal and assessed their estimates. This resulted in the identification of common estimation deviations, errors, and patterns, which lead to the proposal of metrics to help estimators produce estimates leveraging past projects quantitative and qualitative information in a convenient way. This dissertation aims to contribute to more realistic estimates, by identifying shortcomings in the current estimation process and supporting the self-improvement of the process, by gathering as much relevant information as possible from each finished project.

Planning and verification of multipath routing protocols

Conventionally the problem of the best path in a network refers to the shortest path problem. However, for the vast majority of networks present nowadays this solution has some limitations which directly affect their proper functioning, as well as an inefficient use of their potentialities. Problems at the level of large networks where graphs of high complexity are commonly present as well as the appearing of new services and their respective requirements, are intrinsically related to the inability of this solution. In order to overcome the needs present in these networks, a new approach to the problem of the best path must be explored. One solution that has aroused more interest in the scientific community considers the use of multiple paths between two network nodes, where they can all now be considered as the best path between those nodes. Therefore, the routing will be discontinued only by minimizing one metric, where only one path between nodes is chosen, and shall be made by the selection of one of many paths, thereby allowing the use of a greater diversity of the present paths (obviously, if the network consents). The establishment of multi-path routing in a given network has several advantages for its operation. Its use may well improve the distribution of network traffic, improve recovery time to failure, or it can still offer a greater control of the network by its administrator. These factors still have greater relevance when networks have large dimensions, as well as when their constitution is of high complexity, such as the Internet, where multiple networks managed by different entities are interconnected. A large part of the growing need to use multipath protocols is associated to the routing made based on policies. Therefore, paths with different characteristics can be considered with equal level of preference, and thus be part of the solution for the best way problem. To perform multi-path routing using protocols based only on the destination address has some limitations but it is possible. Concepts of graph theory of algebraic structures can be used to describe how the routes are calculated and classified, enabling to model the routing problem. This thesis studies and analyzes multi-path routing protocols from the known literature and derives a new algebraic condition which allows the correct operation of these protocols without any network restriction. It also develops a range of software tools that allows the planning and the respective verification/validation of new protocols models according to the study made.

Novo Software para análise do epitélio nasal humano

A discinesia ciliar primária (DCP) resulta de disfunção ciliar no ser humano, estando associada a um conjunto de sintomas muito diversificados. É uma doença respiratória rara caracterizada por infecções respiratórias, situs inversus, infertilidade e hidrocefalia. Em Portugal não existe nenhum centro de diagnóstico da doença. Mas a inten-ção de criar um surgiu, seguindo o método de centros de diagnóstico para DCP utilizado noutros países. Este diagnóstico consiste em recolher amostras dos cílios do nariz, através do método de escovagem nasal e obter a gravação do batimento das células ciliadas por uma câmara de alta velocidade acoplada a um microscópio com objectivas de alta resolução. É possível estudar a DCP através da análise do comportamento físico dos cílios, e, para uma melhor abordagem, foi desenvolvido um programa executável, em C#, para análise destas amostras. Este, após a escolha de uma zona de interesse da sequência de imagens pelo utilizador (ROI), detecta as frequências do bati-mento ciliar, indicando uma lista com as percentagens das frequências obtidas e cria um mapa de frequências do ROI. A ferramenta permite ainda calcular o comprimento do cílio e realizar um estudo do movimento do mesmo, algo que ainda não foi abordado por outros programas. O código desenvolvido permitirá, assim, obter um diagnóstico de DCP em Por-tugal, rápido e nalguns casos com um melhor desempenho do que a inspecção visual seguida noutros centros de diagnóstico.

Plataforma online de partilha e comparação de software para análise de imagens da retina

Nesta Tese foi desenvolvida uma plataforma online multiutilizador, que tem como objetivo principal comparar algoritmos de análise de imagens para de-terminar o seu grau de eficácia. Um exemplo de aplicação é a comparação de algoritmos de análise de imagens da retina para deteção de drusas. A compa-ração é feita considerando um dos algoritmos como referência padrão e sobre o este são avaliados os restantes. O funcionamento da plataforma é semelhante à de um fórum, onde é possível a um utilizador criar tópicos publicando imagens e seu descritivo. Após a cria-ção do tópico qualquer utilizador pode visualizar o mesmo, dando a hipótese de comentar ou de acrescentar imagens processadas com os seus próprios al-goritmos de análise. Com o aumento de imagens processadas, obtém-se uma base de dados de algoritmos de análise de imagens sobre a qual é possível avaliar o seu grau de eficácia. A plataforma pretende também criar comunidades onde os utilizadores pos-sam interagir uns com os outros comentando sobre os tópicos, contribuindo assim para o melhoramento dos algoritmos. Deste modo, além de uma base de dados que qualquer utilizador pode usar, obtém-se uma fonte de informação disponibilizada por outros profissionais da área.

O uso do software de edição áudio Audacity 2.0.5: aprendizagens decorrentes da sua utilização

Contém CD com áudio como anexo

Firms survival and international trade: The impact of exports and imports

Double Degree. A Work Project presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters in Management from Nova School of Business and Economics and Maastricht University.

Managing marginal capital requirements in solvency II: Analysis of a real insurance portfolio

This thesis provides a complete analysis of the Standard Capital Requirements given by Solvency II for a real insurance portfolio. We analyze the investment portfolio of BPI Vida e Pensões, an insurance company affiliated with a Portuguese bank BPI, both at security, sub-portfolio and asset class levels. By using the Standard Formula from EIOPA, Total SCR amounts to 239M€. This value is mostly explained by Market and Default Risk whereas the former is driven by Spread and Concentration Risks. Following the methodology of Leblanc (2011), we examine the Marginal Contribution of an asset to the SCR which allows for the evaluation of the risks of each security given its characteristics and interactions in the portfolio. The top contributors to the SCR are Corporate Bonds and Term Deposits. By exploring further the composition of the portfolio, our results show that slight changes in allocation of Term and Cash Deposits have severe impacts on the total Concentration and Default Risks, respectively. Also, diversification effects are very relevant by representing savings of 122M€. Finally, Solvency II represents an opportunity for the portfolio optimization. By constructing efficient frontiers, we find that as the target expected return increases, a shift from Term Deposits/ Commercial Papers to Eurozone/Peripheral and finally Equities occurs.

Performance of the Vitek 2 system software version 5.03 in the bacterial identification and antimicrobial susceptibility test: evaluation study of clinical and reference strains of Gram-positive cocci

Introduction. The genera Enterococcus, Staphylococcus and Streptococcus are recognized as important Gram-positive human pathogens. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of Vitek 2 in identifying Gram-positive cocci and their antimicrobial susceptibilities. Methods. One hundred four isolates were analyzed to determine the accuracy of the automated system for identifying the bacteria and their susceptibility to oxacillin and vancomycin. Results. The system correctly identified 77.9% and 97.1% of the isolates at the species and genus levels, respectively. Additionally, 81.8% of the Vitek 2 results agreed with the known antimicrobial susceptibility profiles. Conclusion. Vitek 2 correctly identified the commonly isolated strains; however, the limitations of the method may lead to ambiguous findings.

Basel III new capital requirements, impacts and bank behavior

For some years, researchers could not find a clear effect of capital adequacy on the risk profile of banks, as shareholders could increase the riskiness of the assets (qualitative effect), crowding-out the effect of reduced leverage (volume effect). Some shareholders might have the will to increase the riskiness of the assets, but they may lack the power to do so. Considering only ”powerful” shareholders, definitive conclusions were drawn but with constant ownership profile. In this paper I investigate whether there is a significant change in the type of shareholders in response to regulatory capital shocks and, if so, will the banking system be in the hands of more “desired” shareholders. I find that ownership profile responds to a regulatory shock, changing the risk appetite of the ruling power at the bank. I find more banks and the government in the ownership of undercapitalised banks and much less institutional shareholders and free float. I claim that these new shareholders may not the desired ones, given the objective of the regulatory change, as they are associated with a preference for more leverage. One possible explanation for this crowding-out effect is that regulators are trying to contain idiosyncratic risk (more linked to the riskiness of the assets) with a rule that contains systematic risk (capital adequacy). This has a distorting effect on ownership. Another insight can be drawn from the tests: supervisors should be aware of significant ownership movements that cause the crowding-out.

Capital requirements and loan market conditions insight into Portuguese Banking system (2004-2011)

Capital Requirements have been gaining importance in the current macroeconomic and financial environment and Portugal is no exception. Nonetheless, despite the several media articles on this subject, the associations with Loan Market Conditions, namely availability and pricing are still unstudied. Thus, this project adds to the existing literature a characterization of Portuguese four biggest banks on capital reporting and requirements fulfillment. It is concluded that banks under analysis need to increase capital and that there is an association between the variables under study: Share Capital is negatively correlated with Credit Volume, and it is positively correlated with Net Commercial Income.

User-centric product derivation in software product lines

Software Product Line (SPL) engineering aims at achieving efficient development of software products in a specific domain. New products are obtained via a process which entails creating a new configuration specifying the desired product’s features. This configuration must necessarily conform to a variability model, that describes the scope of the SPL, or else it is not viable. To ensure this, configuration tools are used that do not allow invalid configurations to be expressed. A different concern, however, is making sure that a product addresses the stakeholders’ needs as best as possible. The stakeholders may not be experts on the domain, so they may have unrealistic expectations. Also, the scope of the SPL is determined not only by the domain but also by limitations of the development platforms. It is therefore possible that the desired set of features goes beyond what is possible to currently create with the SPL. This means that configuration tools should provide support not only for creating valid products, but also for improving satisfaction of user concerns. We address this goal by providing a user-centric configuration process that offers suggestions during the configuration process, based on the use of soft constraints, and identifying and explaining potential conflicts that may arise. Suggestions help mitigating stakeholder uncertainty and poor domain knowledge, by helping them address well known and desirable domain-related concerns. On the other hand, automated conflict identification and explanation helps the stakeholders to understand the trade-offs required for realizing their vision, allowing informed resolution of conflicts. Additionally, we propose a prototype-based approach to configuration, that addresses the order-dependency issues by allowing the complete (or partial) specification of the features in a single step. A subsequent resolution process will then identify possible repairs, or trade-offs, that may be required for viabilization.

An agent based architecture to support monitoring in plug and produce manufacturing systems using knowledge extraction

In recent years a set of production paradigms were proposed in order to capacitate manufacturers to meet the new market requirements, such as the shift in demand for highly customized products resulting in a shorter product life cycle, rather than the traditional mass production standardized consumables. These new paradigms advocate solutions capable of facing these requirements, empowering manufacturing systems with a high capacity to adapt along with elevated flexibility and robustness in order to deal with disturbances, like unexpected orders or malfunctions. Evolvable Production Systems propose a solution based on the usage of modularity and self-organization with a fine granularity level, supporting pluggability and in this way allowing companies to add and/or remove components during execution without any extra re-programming effort. However, current monitoring software was not designed to fully support these characteristics, being commonly based on centralized SCADA systems, incapable of re-adapting during execution to the unexpected plugging/unplugging of devices nor changes in the entire system’s topology. Considering these aspects, the work developed for this thesis encompasses a fully distributed agent-based architecture, capable of performing knowledge extraction at different levels of abstraction without sacrificing the capacity to add and/or remove monitoring entities, responsible for data extraction and analysis, during runtime.

Basel III: The impact of new capital requirements on profitability of Portuguese Banks

This empirical study aims to explore the impact of increased capital ratio requirements, on the ROE of the Portuguese banking sector. The paper employs both a quantitative- and qualitative approach, with the qualitative approach as the main method of research. The method adopted to conduct the qualitative research was semi structured elite interviews with banking executives. Higher capital requirements decrease the ROE of banks in Portugal, but huge impairments charges, macroeconomic factors and increased costs of deposits are clearly the dominant reasons for the reduced levels of ROE the past years. Among the measures taken to increase capital ratios, reduction of RWAs and non-core assets have been the main focus, but the issuance of CoCos is regarded as the most expensive measure due to high interest payments. However, the CoCos will not have any effect on the ROE in the long term. It is difficult to draw any conclusions on the impact of more equity in the balance sheet on the ROE of Portuguese banks, as many banks currently don’t generate enough money to pay back on shareholders´ investments.