Some hypothesis tests for the covariance matrix when the dimension is large compared to the sample size

This paper analyzes whether standard covariance matrix tests work whendimensionality is large, and in particular larger than sample size. Inthe latter case, the singularity of the sample covariance matrix makeslikelihood ratio tests degenerate, but other tests based on quadraticforms of sample covariance matrix eigenvalues remain well-defined. Westudy the consistency property and limiting distribution of these testsas dimensionality and sample size go to infinity together, with theirratio converging to a finite non-zero limit. We find that the existingtest for sphericity is robust against high dimensionality, but not thetest for equality of the covariance matrix to a given matrix. For thelatter test, we develop a new correction to the existing test statisticthat makes it robust against high dimensionality.

Testing demographic models of effective population size.

Due to practical difficulties in obtaining direct genetic estimates of effective sizes, conservation biologists have to rely on so-called 'demographic models' which combine life-history and mating-system parameters with F-statistics in order to produce indirect estimates of effective sizes. However, for the same practical reasons that prevent direct genetic estimates, the accuracy of demographic models is difficult to evaluate. Here we use individual-based, genetically explicit computer simulations in order to investigate the accuracy of two such demographic models aimed at investigating the hierarchical structure of populations. We show that, by and large, these models provide good estimates under a wide range of mating systems and dispersal patterns. However, one of the models should be avoided whenever the focal species' breeding system approaches monogamy with no sex bias in dispersal or when a substructure within social groups is suspected because effective sizes may then be strongly overestimated. The timing during the life cycle at which F-statistics are evaluated is also of crucial importance and attention should be paid to it when designing field sampling since different demographic models assume different timings. Our study shows that individual-based, genetically explicit models provide a promising way of evaluating the accuracy of demographic models of effective size and delineate their field of applicability.

The size and burden of mental disorders and other disorders of the brain in Europe 2010.

Aims: To provide 12-month prevalence and disability burden estimates of a broad range of mental and neurological disorders in the European Union (EU) and to compare these findings to previous estimates. Referring to our previous 2005 review, improved up-to-date data for the enlarged EU on a broader range of disorders than previously covered are needed for basic, clinical and public health research and policy decisions and to inform about the estimated number of persons affected in the EU. Method: Stepwise multi-method approach, consisting of systematic literature reviews, reanalyses of existing data sets, national surveys and expert consultations. Studies and data from all member states of the European Union (EU-27) plus Switzerland, Iceland and Norway were included. Supplementary information about neurological disorders is provided, although methodological constraints prohibited the derivation of overall prevalence estimates for mental and neurological disorders. Disease burden was measured by disability adjusted life years (DALY). Results: Prevalence: It is estimated that each year 38.2% of the EU population suffers from a mental disorder. Adjusted for age and comorbidity, this corresponds to 164.8 million persons affected. Compared to 2005 (27.4%) this higher estimate is entirely due to the inclusion of 14 new disorders also covering childhood/adolescence as well as the elderly. The estimated higher number of persons affected (2011: 165 m vs. 2005: 82 m) is due to coverage of childhood and old age populations, new disorders and of new EU membership states. The most frequent disorders are anxiety disorders (14.0%), insomnia (7.0%), major depression (6.9%), somatoform (6.3%), alcohol and drug dependence (>4%), ADHD (5%) in the young, and dementia (1-30%, depending on age). Except for substance use disorders and mental retardation, there were no substantial cultural or country variations. Although many sources, including national health insurance programs, reveal increases in sick leave, early retirement and treatment rates due to mental disorders, rates in the community have not increased with a few exceptions (i.e. dementia). There were also no consistent indications of improvements with regard to low treatment rates, delayed treatment provision and grossly inadequate treatment. Disability: Disorders of the brain and mental disorders in particular, contribute 26.6% of the total all cause burden, thus a greater proportion as compared to other regions of the world. The rank order of the most disabling diseases differs markedly by gender and age group; overall, the four most disabling single conditions were: depression, dementias, alcohol use disorders and stroke. Conclusion: In every year over a third of the total EU population suffers from mental disorders. The true size of "disorders of the brain" including neurological disorders is even considerably larger. Disorders of the brain are the largest contributor to the all cause morbidity burden as measured by DALY in the EU. No indications for increasing overall rates of mental disorders were found nor of improved care and treatment since 2005; less than one third of all cases receive any treatment, suggesting a considerable level of unmet needs. We conclude that the true size and burden of disorders of the brain in the EU was significantly underestimated in the past.Concerted priority action is needed at all levels, including substantially increased funding for basic, clinical and public health research in order to identify better strategies for improved prevention and treatment for isorders of the brain as the core health challenge of the 21st century. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Body size, activity, employment and wages in Europe: A first approach

This paper examines the associations between obesity, employment status and wages for several European countries. Our results provide weak evidence that obese workers are more likely to be unemployed or tend to be more segregated in self-employment jobs than their non-obese counterparts. We also find difficult to detect statistically significant relationships between obesity and wages. As previously reported in the literature, the association between obesity, unemployment and wages seems to be different for men and women. Moreover, heterogeneity is also found across countries. Such heterogeneity can be somewhat explained by some labor market institutions, such as the collective bargaining coverage and the employer-provided health insurance.

Openness, government size and the terms of trade

This paper investigates the relationship between trade openness and the size of government, both theoretically and empirically. We show that openness can increase the size of governments through two channels: (1) a terms of trade externality, whereby trade lowers the domestic cost of taxation and (2) the demand for insurance, whereby trade raises risk and public transfers. We provide a unified framework for studying and testing these two mechanisms. First, we show how their relative strength depends on a key parameter, the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Second, while the terms of trade externality leads to inefficiently large governments, the increase in public spending due to the demand for insurance is optimal. We show that large volumes of trade may result in welfare losses if the terms of trade externality is strong enough while small volumes of trade are always beneficial. Third, we provide new evidence on the positive association between openness and the size of government and test whether it is consistent with the terms of trade externality or the demand for insurance. Our findings suggest that the positive relationship is remarkably robust and that the terms of trade externality may be the driving force behind it, thus raising warnings that globalization may have led to inefficiently large governments.

A new species of Aurigoniella Takiya, Mejdalani & Felix (Hemiptera, Cicadellidae, Cicadellini) from southern Brazil

Aurigoniella meridionalis, sp. nov. is described and illustrated from Morretes and São José dos Pinhais, Paraná State, southern Brazil. It can be easily distinguished from the Aurigoniella type-species, A. dutrai, by its distinct color pattern, smaller size, shorter crown, hindleg knees attaining lateral lobe of pronotum, aedeagus broadest height around mid-length, and paraphyses ramus biramous.

Shorter time to diagnosis and improved stage at presentation in Swiss patients with retinoblastoma treated from 1963 to 2004

Rapport de synthèse : Le rétinoblastome est la tumeur de l'oeil la plus fréquente chez l'enfant. Un diagnostic précoce est important pour sauver le globe oculaire et la survie du patient. Le but de notre étude est de déterminer l'évolution de l'intervalle diagnostique, c'est-à-dire le délai entre les premiers symptômes et la date du diagnostic officiel du rétinoblastome, sur une période de 40 ans en Suisse. Matériel et méthode : Il s'agit d'une étude rétrospective faite sur 139 patients suisses traités pour rétinoblastome durant trois différentes périodes : (1) 1963-1983 ; (2) 1984-1993 ; et (3) 1994-2004. On compare certaines caractéristiques : le sexe du patient, la latéralité de la maladie, les premiers symptômes, leurs observateurs, l'intervalle diagnostique, l'âge au diagnostic, le stade de la maladie, l'histoire familiale. Résultats : 37 patients (26.6%) ont été traités dans la première période ; 44 (31.7%) dans la période 2 et 58 (41.7%) dans la période 3. L'intervalle diagnostique diminue de façon significative de 6.97 mois dans la période 1 à 3.58 dans la période 2 à 2.25 dans la période 3 pour le total des malades. Ceci reste significatif pour les rétinoblastomes unilatéraux. De plus, dans ce même groupe, on observe une diminution significative des stades avancés de la maladie, groupe E selon Murphree (61.5% dans la période 1 ; 46.7% dans la période 2 et 22.2 % dans la période 3). Lorsque la maladie est bilatérale, les mêmes observations se font de façon un peu moins marquée. Il n'y a aucun patient diagnostiqué au stade E de la maladie en présence d'une anamnèse familiale positive. Leucocorie (48.2%) et strabisme (20.1 %) sont les symptômes les plus fréquents durant les 3 périodes. Les seuls facteurs qui influencent significativement le risque d'avoir un stade E de la maladie sont la durée de l'intervalle diagnostic et la période de diagnostic. Conclusion : On constate un progrès dans le diagnostic du rétinoblastome en Suisse, surtout lors de maladie unilatérale. De même, des améliorations sont notées dans la maladie bilatérale mais de façon non significative. Il est donc important de mieux enseigner aux médecins à reconnaître les symptômes oculaires de la maladie et à référer les patients plus tôt aux spécialistes. Abstract : OBECTIVES : Retinoblastoma is the most frequent intraocular malignancy in children. Early diagnosis is essential for globe salvage and patient survival. The aim of our study was to determine how time to diagnosis of retinoblastoma has evolved over a 40-year period in Switzerland. METHOD AND PATIENTS : A retrospective study of 139 Swiss patients with retinoblastoma was performed comparing 3 periods: (1) 1963-1983; (2) 1984-1993; and (3) 1994-2004. Factors taken into account were gender, laterality of retínoblastoma, age at first symptoms, type and first observer of symptoms, time to diagnosis, age at diagnosis, disease stage, and family history. RESULTS : Thirty-seven patients (26.6%) were treated in period 1, 44 (31.7%) in period 2, and S8 (41.7%) in period 3.Overall, the diagnostic interval decreased in a significant way from 6.97 months in period 1 to 3.58 in period 2 and to 2.25 in period 3. When looking separately at unilateral and bilateral disease, the decrease oí the diagnostic interval remained statistically significant in unilateral retinoblastoma; there was also a significant reduction in the number of patients with advanced group E disease (Murphree classification) (61.5% in period 1, 46.7% in period 2, 22.2% in period 3). In bilateral disease, the same observations were made to a lesser extent. However, there were no cases with group E disease in 10 patients with positive family history. Leukornria (48.2%) and strabismus (20.1 %) were the 2 most frequent symptoms throughout the 3 periods. The only factors that statistically influenced the chances of having a diagnosis of group E disease were the diagnostic interval and period of diagnosis. Conclusion : Progress has been made in the diagnosis of retinoblastoma in Switzerland, notably in unilateral disease. Improvement to a lesser extent has also been observed in bilateral cases but without statistical significance. Greater effort is needed to teach physians-in-training to recognize the importance of ocular symptoms and refer patients earlier.

Size - compositions of net plankton samples taken off northern Peru

Analiza las estadisticas recolectadas del plancton a 1/2 metro vertical y a un metro oblicuo en una cuadricula de 10 x 15 millas nauticas

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Age and multiple mating effects on reproductive success of Grapholita molesta (Busck) (Lepidoptera, Tortricidae)

The reproductive success of the oriental peach moth was evaluated in four experiments: 1) assessment of the mating duration, fecundity, fertility and longevity of females paired with virgin and immediately mated males; 2) mating duration, spermatophore size, fecundity, fertility and longevity in females paired with virgin and up to four times mated males; 3) receptivity of females to additional copulations after mating with virgin or mated males, and the effects of this behavior in female fecundity, fertility and longevity; 4) influence of insects age in the reproductive output. Males (33%) could copulate immediately after a previous copula. They were fertile until the fourth mating, but only in the first copula they transferred the longest (1.43 ± 0.10 mm) and widest (0.83 ± 0.11 mm) spermatophore, presenting the fastest mating duration (34.8 ± 2.62 min). A high proportion of females copulated by non-virgin males (84%) was receptive to other copulas, in comparison to those copulated by virgin males (32.4%). However, the fecundity, fertility, and longevity were similar among females that copulate once or more. The age was the most important factor affecting reproductive variables, where one and three day old insects had a significant higher fecundity, fertility and presented a shorter mating duration in comparison with older individuals. Results pointed out that the reproductive capacity of Grapholita molesta changes a little with respect to the analyzed factors, highlighting the elevated biotic potential of the species.

Geographical and temporal body size variation in a reptile: roles of sex, ecology, phylogeny and ecology structured in phylogeny.

Geographical body size variation has long interested evolutionary biologists, and a range of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the observed patterns. It is considered to be more puzzling in ectotherms than in endotherms, and integrative approaches are necessary for testing non-exclusive alternative mechanisms. Using lacertid lizards as a model, we adopted an integrative approach, testing different hypotheses for both sexes while incorporating temporal, spatial, and phylogenetic autocorrelation at the individual level. We used data on the Spanish Sand Racer species group from a field survey to disentangle different sources of body size variation through environmental and individual genetic data, while accounting for temporal and spatial autocorrelation. A variation partitioning method was applied to separate independent and shared components of ecology and phylogeny, and estimated their significance. Then, we fed-back our models by controlling for relevant independent components. The pattern was consistent with the geographical Bergmann's cline and the experimental temperature-size rule: adults were larger at lower temperatures (and/or higher elevations). This result was confirmed with additional multi-year independent data-set derived from the literature. Variation partitioning showed no sex differences in phylogenetic inertia but showed sex differences in the independent component of ecology; primarily due to growth differences. Interestingly, only after controlling for independent components did primary productivity also emerge as an important predictor explaining size variation in both sexes. This study highlights the importance of integrating individual-based genetic information, relevant ecological parameters, and temporal and spatial autocorrelation in sex-specific models to detect potentially important hidden effects. Our individual-based approach devoted to extract and control for independent components was useful to reveal hidden effects linked with alternative non-exclusive hypothesis, such as those of primary productivity. Also, including measurement date allowed disentangling and controlling for short-term temporal autocorrelation reflecting sex-specific growth plasticity.

The size and distribution of donations: Effects of numbers of potential recipients

Whereas much literature exists on choice overload, little is known about effects of numbers of alternatives in donation decisions. How do these affect both the size and distribution of donations? We hypothesize that donations are affected by the reputation of recipients and increase with their number, albeit at a decreasing rate. Allocations to recipients reflect different concepts of fairness equity and equality. Both may be employed but, since they differ in cognitive and emotional costs, numbers of recipients are important. Using a cognitive (emotional) argument, distributions become more uniform (skewed) as numbers increase. In a survey, respondents indicated how they would donate lottery winnings of 50 Euros. Results indicated that more was donated to NGO s that respondents knew better. Second, total donations increased with the number of recipients albeit at a decreasing rate. Third, distributions of donations became more skewed as numbers increased. We comment on theoretical and practical implications.

Security analysts as frame-makers

In this paper we explore the mechanisms that allow securities analysts to value companies in contexts of Knightian uncertainty, that is, in the face of information that is unclear, subject to unforeseeable contingencies or to multiple interpretations. We address this question with a grounded-theory analysis of the reports written on Amazon.com by securities analyst Henry Blodget and rival analysts during the years 1998-2000. Our core finding is that analysts' reports are structured by internally consistent associations that includecategorizations, key metrics and analogies. We refer to these representations as calculative frames, and propose that analysts function as frame-makers - that is, asspecialized intermediaries that help investors value uncertain stocks. We conclude by considering the implications of frame-making for the rise of new industry categories, analysts' accuracy, and the regulatory debate on analysts'independence.

Comparative testing of a miniature diffusion size classifier to assess airborne ultrafine particles under field conditions

Miniature diffusion size classifiers (miniDiSC) are novel handheld devices to measure ultrafine particles (UFP). UFP have been linked to the development of cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases; thus, detection and quantification of these particles are important for evaluating their potential health hazards. As part of the UFP exposure assessments of highwaymaintenance workers in western Switzerland, we compared a miniDiSC with a portable condensation particle counter (P-TRAK). In addition, we performed stationary measurements with a miniDiSC and a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) at a site immediately adjacent to a highway. Measurements with miniDiSC and P-TRAK correlated well (correlation of r = 0.84) but average particle numbers of the miniDiSC were 30%âeuro"60% higher. This difference was significantly increased for mean particle diameters below 40 nm. The correlation between theminiDiSC and the SMPSduring stationary measurements was very high (r = 0.98) although particle numbers from the miniDiSC were 30% lower. Differences between the three devices were attributed to the different cutoff diameters for detection. Correction for this size dependent effect led to very similar results across all counters.We did not observe any significant influence of other particle characteristics. Our results suggest that the miniDiSC provides accurate particle number concentrations and geometric mean diameters at traffic-influenced sites, making it a useful tool for personal exposure assessment in such settings.