Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Complications with computer-aided designed/computer-assisted manufactured titanium and soldered gold bars for mandibular implant-overdentures: short-term observations

BACKGROUND Implant-overdentures supported by rigid bars provide stability in the edentulous atrophic mandible. However, fractures of solder joints and matrices, and loosening of screws and matrices were observed with soldered gold bars (G-bars). Computer-aided designed/computer-assisted manufactured (CAD/CAM) titanium bars (Ti-bars) may reduce technical complications due to enhanced material quality. PURPOSE To compare prosthetic-technical maintenance service of mandibular implant-overdentures supported by CAD/CAM Ti-bar and soldered G-bar. MATERIALS AND METHODS Edentulous patients were consecutively admitted for implant-prosthodontic treatment with a maxillary complete denture and a mandibular implant-overdenture connected to a rigid G-bar or Ti-bar. Maintenance service and problems with the implant-retention device complex and the prosthesis were recorded during minimally 3-4 years. Annual peri-implant crestal bone level changes (ΔBIC) were radiographically assessed. RESULTS Data of 213 edentulous patients (mean age 68 ± 10 years), who had received a total of 477 tapered implants, were available. Ti-bar and G-bar comprised 101 and 112 patients with 231 and 246 implants, respectively. Ti-bar mostly exhibited distal bar extensions (96%) compared to 34% of G-bar (p < .001). Fracture rate of bars extensions (4.7% vs 14.8%, p < .001) and matrices (1% vs 13%, p < .001) was lower for Ti-bar. Matrices activation was required 2.4× less often in Ti-bar. ΔBIC remained stable for both groups. CONCLUSIONS Implant overdentures supported by soldered gold bars or milled CAD/CAM Ti-bars are a successful treatment modality but require regular maintenance service. These short-term observations support the hypothesis that CAD/CAM Ti-bars reduce technical complications. Fracture location indicated that the titanium thickness around the screw-access hole should be increased.

The Relationship between Large Fiscal Adjustments and Short-Term Output Growth Under Alternative Fiscal Policy Regimes

A small, but growing, body of literature searches for evidence of non-Keynesian effects of fiscal contractions. That is, some evidence exists that large fiscal contractions stimulate short-run economic activity. Our paper continues this research effort by systematically examining the effects, if any, of unusual fiscal events - either non-Keynesian results within a Keynesian model or Keynesian results within a neoclassical model -- on short-run economic activity. We examine this issue within three separate models -- a St. Louis equation, a Hall-type consumption equation, and a growth accounting equation. Our empirical findings are mixed, and do not provide strong systematic support for the view that unusually large fiscal contractions/expansions reverse the effects of normal fiscal events. Moreover, we find only limited evidence that trigger points are empirically important.

Use of short term test systems for the prediction of the hazard represented by potential chemical carcinogens

It has been hypothesized that results from the short term bioassays will ultimately provide information that will be useful for human health hazard assessment. Although toxicologic test systems have become increasingly refined, to date, no investigator has been able to provide qualitative or quantitative methods which would support the use of short term tests in this capacity.^ Historically, the validity of the short term tests have been assessed using the framework of the epidemiologic/medical screens. In this context, the results of the carcinogen (long term) bioassay is generally used as the standard. However, this approach is widely recognized as being biased and, because it employs qualitative data, cannot be used in the setting of priorities. In contrast, the goal of this research was to address the problem of evaluating the utility of the short term tests for hazard assessment using an alternative method of investigation.^ Chemical carcinogens were selected from the list of carcinogens published by the International Agency for Research on Carcinogens (IARC). Tumorigenicity and mutagenicity data on fifty-two chemicals were obtained from the Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances (RTECS) and were analyzed using a relative potency approach. The relative potency framework allows for the standardization of data "relative" to a reference compound. To avoid any bias associated with the choice of the reference compound, fourteen different compounds were used.^ The data were evaluated in a format which allowed for a comparison of the ranking of the mutagenic relative potencies of the compounds (as estimated using short term data) vs. the ranking of the tumorigenic relative potencies (as estimated from the chronic bioassays). The results were statistically significant (p $<$.05) for data standardized to thirteen of the fourteen reference compounds. Although this was a preliminary investigation, it offers evidence that the short term test systems may be of utility in ranking the hazards represented by chemicals which may be human carcinogens. ^

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF SHORT-TERM MUTAGENICITY AND CYTOTOXICITY BIOASSAYS FOR INTEGRATED HEALTH ASSESSMENT STUDIES OF COAL FLY ASH EMISSIONS

Two respirable coal fly ash samples ((LESSTHEQ) 3(mu)m), one from a pressurized fluidized-bed combustion miniplant and one from a conventional combustion power plant, were investigated for physical properties, chemical composition and biological activity. Electron microscopy illustrated irregularity in fluidized-bed combustion fly ash and sphericity in conventional combustion fly ash. Elemental analysis of these samples showed differences in trace elements. Both fly ash samples were toxic in rabbit alveolar macrophage and Chinese hamster ovary cell systems in vitro. The macrophages were more sensitive to toxicity of fly ash than the ovary cells. For measuring the cytotoxicity of fly ash, the most sensitive parameters were adenosine triphosphate in the alveolar macrophage system and viability index in the hamster ovary system. Intact fluidized-bed combustion fly-ash particles showed mutagenicity only in strains TA98 and TA1538 without metabolic activation in the Ames Salmonella assay. No mutagenicity was detected in bioassay of conventional combustion fly ash particles. Solvent extraction yielded more mass from fluidized-bed combustion fly ash than from conventional combustion fly ash. The extracts of fluidized-bed combustion fly ash showed higher mutagenic activity than conventional combustion fly ash. These samples contained direct-acting, frameshift mutagens.^ Fly ash samples collected from the same fluidized-bed source by cyclones, a fabric filter, and a electrostatic precipitator at various temperatures were compared for particle size, toxicity, and mutagenicity. Results demonstrated that the biological activity of coal fly ash were affected by the collection site, device, and temperature.^ Coal fly ash vapor-coated with 1-nitropyrene was developed as a model system to study the bioavailability and recovery of nitroaromatic compounds in fly ash. The effects of vapor deposition on toxicity and mutagenicity of fly ash were examined. The nitropyrene coating did not significantly alter the ash's cytotoxicity. Nitropyrene was bioavailable in the biological media, and a significant percentage was not recovered after the coated fly ash was cultured with alveolar macrophages. 1-Nitropyrene loss increased as the number of macrophages was increased, suggesting that the macrophages are capable of metabolizing or binding 1-nitropyrene present in coal fly ash. ^

SOCIAL AND BIOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS OF SHORT-TERM GROWTH VELOCITY AMONG PRESCHOOLERS OF RURAL GUATEMALA: A PATH ANALYSIS APPROACH (WEIGHT-GAIN, IRON DEFICIENCY, GASTROINTESTINAL SYMPTOMS)

This dissertation develops and tests through path analysis a theoretical model to explain how socioeconomic, socioenvironmental, and biologic risk factors simultaneously influence each other to further produce short-term, depressed growth in preschoolers. Three areas of risk factors were identified: child's proximal environment, maturational stage, and biological vulnerability. The theoretical model represented both the conceptual framework and the nature and direction of the hypotheses. Original research completed in 1978-80 and in 1982 provided the background data. It was analyzed first by nested-analysis of variance, followed by path analysis. The study provided evidence of mild iron deficiency and gastrointestinal symptomatology in the etiology of depressed, short-term weight gain. Also, there was evidence suggesting that family resources for material and social survival significantly contribute to the variability of short-term, age-adjusted growth velocity. These results challenge current views of unifocal intervention, whether for prevention or control. For policy formulations, though, the mechanisms underlying any set of interlaced relationships must be decoded. Theoretical formulations here proposed should be reassessed under a more extensive research design. It is suggested that studies should be undertaken where social changes are actually in progress; otherwise, nutritional epidemiology in developing countries operates somewhere between social reality and research concepts, with little grasp of its real potential. The study stresses that there is a connection between substantive theory, empirical observation, and policy issues. ^

Supporting Families through Short-Term Foster Care: An Essay Review

Aldgate, J. and Bradley, M. (1999). Supporting families through short-term fostering. London: The Stationery Office. This essay reviews a British qualitative study of short-term foster care from the perspectives of birth parents, children, foster parents, and social workers. Respondents highlighted the value of short-term foster care as a family support service and also offered many recommendations for improving service delivery. The study provides useful implications for restructuring child welfare services in the United States and for promoting cross-national collaboration in future research activities in the area of child and family services.

Two intertidal, non-calcifying macroalgae (Palmaria palmata and Saccharina latissima) show complex and variable responses to short-term CO2 acidification

Ocean acidification, the result of increased dissolution of carbon dioxide (CO2) in seawater, is a leading subject of current research. The effects of acidification on non-calcifying macroalgae are, however, still unclear. The current study reports two 1-month studies using two different macroalgae, the red alga Palmaria palmata (Rhodophyta) and the kelp Saccharina latissima (Phaeophyta), exposed to control (pHNBS = 8.04) and increased (pHNBS = 7.82) levels of CO2-induced seawater acidification. The impacts of both increased acidification and time of exposure on net primary production (NPP), respiration (R), dimethylsulphoniopropionate (DMSP) concentrations, and algal growth have been assessed. In P. palmata, although NPP significantly increased during the testing period, it significantly decreased with acidification, whereas R showed a significant decrease with acidification only. S. latissima significantly increased NPP with acidification but not with time, and significantly increased R with both acidification and time, suggesting a concomitant increase in gross primary production. The DMSP concentrations of both species remained unchanged by either acidification or through time during the experimental period. In contrast, algal growth differed markedly between the two experiments, in that P. palmata showed very little growth throughout the experiment, while S. latissima showed substantial growth during the course of the study, with the latter showing a significant difference between the acidified and control treatments. These two experiments suggest that the study species used here were resistant to a short-term exposure to ocean acidification, with some of the differences seen between species possibly linked to different nutrient concentrations between the experiments.

Photochemical responses of the diatom Skeletonema costatum grown under elevated CO2 concentrations to short-term changes in pH

Variability in pH is a common occurrence in many aquatic environments, due to physical, chemical and biological processes. In coastal waters, lagoons, estuaries and inland waters, pH can change very rapidly (within seconds or hours) in addition to daily and seasonal changes. At the same time, progressive ocean acidification caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions is superimposed on these spatial and temporal pH changes. Photosynthetic organisms are therefore unavoidably subject to significant pH variations at the cell surface. Whether this will affect their response to long-term ocean acidification is still unknown, nor is it known whether the short-term sensitivity to pH change is affected by the pCO2 to which the cells are acclimated. We posed the latter open question as our experimental hypothesis: Does acclimation to seawater acidification affect the response of phytoplankton to acute pH variations? The diatom Skeletonema costatum, commonly found in coastal and estuarine waters where short-term acute changes in pH frequently occur, was selected to test the hypothesis. Diatoms were grown at both 390 (pH 8.2, low CO2; LC) and 1000 (pH 7.9, high CO2; HC) µatm CO2 for at least 20 generations, and photosynthetic responses to short-term and acute changes in pH (between 8.2 and 7.6) were investigated. The effective quantum yield of LC-grown cells decreased by ca. 70% only when exposed to pH 7.6; this was not observed when exposed to pH 7.9 or 8.2. HC-grown cells did not show significant responses in any pH treatment. Non-photochemical quenching showed opposite trends. In general, our results indicate that while LC-grown cells are rather sensitive to acidification, HC-grown cells are relatively unresponsive in terms of photochemical performance.

Adult acclimation to combined temperature and pH stressors significantly enhances reproductive outcomes compared to short-term exposures

This study examined the effects of long-term culture under altered conditions on the Antarctic sea urchin, Sterechinus neumayeri. Sterechinus neumayeri was cultured under the combined environmental stressors of lowered pH (-0.3 and -0.5 pH units) and increased temperature (+2 °C) for 2 years. This time-scale covered two full reproductive cycles in this species and analyses included studies on both adult metabolism and larval development. Adults took at least 6-8 months to acclimate to the altered conditions, but beyond this, there was no detectable effect of temperature or pH. Animals were spawned after 6 and 17 months exposure to altered conditions, with markedly different outcomes. At 6 months, the percentage hatching and larval survival rates were greatest in the animals kept at 0 °C under current pH conditions, whilst those under lowered pH and +2 °C performed significantly less well. After 17 months, performance was not significantly different across treatments, including controls. However, under the altered conditions urchins produced larger eggs compared with control animals. These data show that under long-term culture adult S. neumayeri appear to acclimate their metabolic and reproductive physiology to the combined stressors of altered pH and increased temperature, with relatively little measureable effect. They also emphasize the importance of long-term studies in evaluating effects of altered pH, particularly in slow developing marine species with long gonad maturation times, as the effects of altered conditions cannot be accurately evaluated unless gonads have fully matured under the new conditions.

Strong shift from HCO3- to CO2 uptake in Emiliania huxleyi with acidification: new approach unravels acclimation versus short-term pH effects

Effects of ocean acidification on Emiliania huxleyi strain RCC 1216 (calcifying, diploid life-cycle stage) and RCC 1217 (non-calcifying, haploid life-cycle stage) were investigated by measuring growth, elemental composition, and production rates under different pCO2 levels (380 and 950 µatm). In these differently acclimated cells, the photosynthetic carbon source was assessed by a (14)C disequilibrium assay, conducted over a range of ecologically relevant pH values (7.9-8.7). In agreement with previous studies, we observed decreased calcification and stimulated biomass production in diploid cells under high pCO2, but no CO2-dependent changes in biomass production for haploid cells. In both life-cycle stages, the relative contributions of CO2 and HCO3 (-) uptake depended strongly on the assay pH. At pH values =< 8.1, cells preferentially used CO2 (>= 90 % CO2), whereas at pH values >= 8.3, cells progressively increased the fraction of HCO3 (-) uptake (~45 % CO2 at pH 8.7 in diploid cells; ~55 % CO2 at pH 8.5 in haploid cells). In contrast to the short-term effect of the assay pH, the pCO2 acclimation history had no significant effect on the carbon uptake behavior. A numerical sensitivity study confirmed that the pH-modification in the (14)C disequilibrium method yields reliable results, provided that model parameters (e.g., pH, temperature) are kept within typical measurement uncertainties. Our results demonstrate a high plasticity of E. huxleyi to rapidly adjust carbon acquisition to the external carbon supply and/or pH, and provide an explanation for the paradoxical observation of high CO2 sensitivity despite the apparently high HCO3 (-) usage seen in previous studies.