844 resultados para Short-Term assessment of risk and treatability


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In this paper I consider a role for risk understanding in school science education. Grounds for this are described in terms of current sociological analyses of the contemporary world as a ‘risk society’ and recent public understanding of science studies where science and risk are concerns commonly linked within the wider community. These concerns connect with support amongst many science educators for the goal of science education for citizenship. From this perspective scientific literacy for decision making on contemporary socioscientific issues is central. I argue that in such decision making risk understanding has an important role to play. I examine some of the challenges its inclusion in school science presents to science teachers, review previous writing about risk in the science education literature and consider how knowledge about risk might be addressed in school science. I also outline the varying conceptions of risk and suggest some future research directions which would support the inclusion of risk in classroom discussions of socioscientific issues.

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An important responsibility of the Environment Protection Authority, Victoria, is to set objectives for levels of environmental contaminants. To support the development of environmental objectives for water quality, a need has been identified to understand the dual impacts of concentration and duration of a contaminant on biota in freshwater streams. For suspended solids contamination, information reported by Newcombe and Jensen [ North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 16(4):693--727, 1996] study of freshwater fish and the daily suspended solids data from the United States Geological Survey stream monitoring network is utilised. The study group was requested to examine both the utility of the Newcombe and Jensen and the USA data, as well as the formulation of a procedure for use by the Environment Protection Authority Victoria that takes concentration and duration of harmful episodes into account when assessing water quality. The extent to which the impact of a toxic event on fish health could be modelled deterministically was also considered. It was found that concentration and exposure duration were the main compounding factors on the severity of effects of suspended solids on freshwater fish. A protocol for assessing the cumulative effect on fish health and a simple deterministic model, based on the biology of gill harm and recovery, was proposed. References D. W. T. Au, C. A. Pollino, R. S. S Wu, P. K. S. Shin, S. T. F. Lau, and J. Y. M. Tang. Chronic effects of suspended solids on gill structure, osmoregulation, growth, and triiodothyronine in juvenile green grouper epinephelus coioides . Marine Ecology Press Series , 266:255--264, 2004. J.C. Bezdek, S.K. Chuah, and D. Leep. Generalized k-nearest neighbor rules. Fuzzy Sets and Systems , 18:237--26, 1986. E. T. Champagne, K. L. Bett-Garber, A. M. McClung, and C. Bergman. {Sensory characteristics of diverse rice cultivars as influenced by genetic and environmental factors}. Cereal Chem. , {81}:{237--243}, {2004}. S. G. Cheung and P. K. S. Shin. Size effects of suspended particles on gill damage in green-lipped mussel perna viridis. Marine Pollution Bulletin , 51(8--12):801--810, 2005. D. H. Evans. The fish gill: site of action and model for toxic effects of environmental pollutants. Environmental Health Perspectives , 71:44--58, 1987. G. C. Grigg. The failure of oxygen transport in a fish at low levels of ambient oxygen. Comp. Biochem. Physiol. , 29:1253--1257, 1969. G. Holmes, A. Donkin, and I.H. Witten. {Weka: A machine learning workbench}. In Proceedings of the Second Australia and New Zealand Conference on Intelligent Information Systems , volume {24}, pages {357--361}, {Brisbane, Australia}, {1994}. {IEEE Computer Society}. D. D. Macdonald and C. P. Newcombe. Utility of the stress index for predicting suspended sediment effects: response to comments. North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 13:873--876, 1993. C. P. Newcombe. Suspended sediment in aquatic ecosystems: ill effects as a function of concentration and duration of exposure. Technical report, British Columbia Ministry of Environment, Lands and Parks, Habitat Protection branch, Victoria, 1994. C. P. Newcombe and J. O. T. Jensen. Channel suspended sediment and fisheries: A synthesis for quantitative assessment of risk and impact. North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 16(4):693--727, 1996. C. P. Newcombe and D. D. Macdonald. Effects of suspended sediments on aquatic ecosystems. North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 11(1):72--82, 1991. K. Schmidt-Nielsen. Scaling. Why is animal size so important? Cambridge University Press, NY, 1984. J. S. Schwartz, A. Simon, and L. Klimetz. Use of fish functional traits to associate in-stream suspended sediment transport metrics with biological impairment. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment , 179(1--4):347--369, 2011. E. Al Shaw and J. S. Richardson. Direct and indirect effects of sediment pulse duration on stream invertebrate assemb ages and rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) growth and survival. Canadian Journal of Fish and Aquatic Science , 58:2213--2221, 2001. P. Tiwari and H. Hasegawa. {Demand for housing in Tokyo: A discrete choice analysis}. Regional Studies , {38}:{27--42}, {2004}. Y. Tramblay, A. Saint-Hilaire, T. B. M. J. Ouarda, F. Moatar, and B Hecht. Estimation of local extreme suspended sediment concentrations in california rivers. Science of the Total Environment , 408:4221--

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Children with developmental co-ordination disorder (DCD) face evident motor difficulties in activities of daily living (ADL). Assessment of their capacity in ADL is essential for diagnosis and intervention, in order to limit the daily consequences of the disorder. The aim of this study is to systematically review potential instruments for standardized and objective assessment of children's capacity in ADL, suited for children with DCD. As a first step, databases of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and PsycINFO were searched to identify studies that described instruments with potential for assessment of capacity in ADL. Second, instruments were included for review when two independent reviewers agreed that the instruments: (1) are standardized and objective; (2) assess at activity level and comprise items that reflect ADL, and; (3) are applicable to school-aged children that can move independently. Out of 1507 publications, 66 publications were selected, describing 39 instruments. Seven of these instruments were found to fulfil the criteria and were included for review: the Bruininks-Oseretsky Test of Motor Performance-2 (BOT2); the Do-Eat (Do-Eat); the Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 (MABC2); the school-Assessment of Motor and Process Skills (schoolAMPS); the Tuffts Assessment of Motor Performance (TAMP); the Test of Gross Motor Development (TGMD); and the Functional Independence Measure for Children (WeeFIM). As a third step, for the included instruments, suitability for children with DCD was discussed based on the ADL comprised, ecological validity and other psychometric properties. We concluded that current instruments do not provide comprehensive and ecologically valid assessment of capacity in ADL as required for children with DCD.

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BACKGROUND: Routine assessment of dry weight in chronic hemodialysis patients relies primarily on clinical evaluation of patient fluid status. We evaluated whether measurement of postdialytic vascular refill could assist in the assessment of dry weight. METHODS: Twenty-eight chronic, stable hemodialysis patients were studied during routine treatment sessions using constant dialysate temperature and dialysate sodium concentration, and relative changes in blood volume were monitored using Crit-Line III monitors throughout this study. The study was divided into three phases. Phase 1 studies evaluated the time-dependence of vascular compartment refill after completion of hemodialysis. Phase 2 studies evaluated the relationships in patient subgroups between intradialytic changes in blood volume and the presence of postdialytic vascular compartment refill during that last 10 minutes of hemodialysis after stopping ultrafiltration. Phase 3 studies evaluated the extent of dry weight changes following the application of a protocol for blood volume reduction, postdialytic vascular compartment refill, and correlation with clinical evidence of intradialytic hypovolemia and/or postdialytic fatigue. Phase 3 included anywhere from three to five treatments. RESULTS: Phase 1 studies demonstrated that despite interpatient variability in the magnitude of postdialytic vascular compartment refill, when significant refill was evident, it always continued for at least 30 minutes. However, the majority of refill took place within 10 minutes postdialysis. Phase 2 studies identified 3 groups of patients: those who exhibited intradialytic reductions in blood volume but not postdialytic vascular compartment refill (group 1), those who exhibited intradialytic reductions in blood volume and postdialytic vascular compartment refill (group 2), and those whose blood volume did not change substantially during hemodialysis treatment (group 3). In phase 3 studies, use of an ultrafiltration protocol for blood volume reduction and monitoring of postdialytic vascular compartment refill combined with clinical assessment of hypovolemia and postdialytic fatigue demonstrated that patients often had a clinical dry weight assessment which was too low or too high. In all 28 patients studied, dry weight was either increased or decreased following use of this protocol. CONCLUSION: Determination of the extent of both intradialytic decreases in blood volume and postdialytic vascular compartment refill, combined with clinical assessment of intradialytic hypovolemia and postdialytic fatigue, can help assess patient dry weight and optimize volume status while reducing dialysis associated morbidity. The number of hospital admissions due to fluid overload may be reduced.

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The measurement and representation of the electrical activity of muscles [electromyography (EMG)] have a long history from the Victorian Era until today. Currently, EMG has uses both as a research tool, in noninvasively recording muscle activation, and clinically in the diagnosis and assessment of nerve and muscle disease and injury as well as in assessing the recovery of neuromuscular function after nerve damage. In the present report, we describe the use of a basic EMG setup in our teaching laboratories to demonstrate some of these current applications. Our practical also illustrates some fundamental physiological and structural properties of nerves and muscles. Learning activities include 1) displaying the recruitment of muscle fibers with increasing force development; 2) the measurement of conduction velocity of motor nerves; 3) the assessment of reflex delay and demonstration of Jendrassik's maneuver; and 4) a Hoffman reflex experiment that illustrates the composition of mixed nerves and the differential excitability thresholds of fibers within the same nerve, thus aiding an understanding of the reflex nature of muscle control. We can set up the classes at various levels of inquiry depending on the needs/professional requirements of the class. The results can then provide an ideal platform for a discovery learning session/tutorial on how the central nervous system controls muscles, giving insights on how supraspinal control interacts with reflexes to give smooth, precise muscular activation.

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When it comes to assessing the deontic status of acts and policies in the context of risk and uncertainty, moral theories are often at a loss. In this paper we hope to show that employing a multi-dimensional consequentialist framework provides ethical guidance for decision-making in complex situations. The paper starts by briefly rehearsing consequentialist responses to the issue of risk, as well as their shortcomings. We then go on to present our own proposal based on three dimensions: wellbeing, fairness and probability. In the last section we apply our approach to a comparison of different climate policy options, including stratospheric solar-radiation management.

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Résumé Le but de cette thèse est de comprendre les représentations du risque chez les jeunes de la rue. Plus précisément, elle s’intéresse à appréhender les constructions du risque que font les jeunes de la rue eux-mêmes, d’autant plus que ces jeunes sont définis comme un groupe à risque. Si le risque est plus souvent défini de manière stricte comme le mal éventuel, dans cette étude, il est défini plus largement intégrant l’idée des opportunités et prises de risque. Ancrée dans une perspective double du constructionnisme social et de l’interactionnisme symbolique, cette recherche a exploré les savoirs des jeunes sur les risques qu’ils vivaient dans les contextes observés et la manière dont ils les appréhendaient. Pour y parvenir, cette recherche s’inscrit dans une approche ethnographique pour mieux comprendre le monde des jeunes de la rue, utilisant des méthodes d'observation participante et dévoilée et des entrevues informelles variées. Cette approche globale permet de saisir comment les jeunes définissent leur capacité à estimer, gérer, éviter ou prendre des risques. L’utilisation d’une perspective longitudinale (de un à deux ans) et les relations de confiance bâties avec ces jeunes, ont permis de suivre comment la construction identitaire des jeunes observés a influencé leurs perception du risque et leurs pratiques de débrouillardise. En outre, les liens établis ont permis de révéler les points de vue singuliers des jeunes mais aussi leurs savoirs expérientiels relatifs aux risques. Il s’agit dans cette étude de montrer à partir des théories générales qui définissent nos sociétés comme des sociétés du risque, comment des individus, identifiés comme appartenant à un groupe à risque, définissent et gèrent leurs risques à partir de leur propre expérience et point de vue afin de révéler la diversité et la complexité des expériences et savoirs des jeunes de la rue à l’endroit du risque. En effet, cette thèse montre qu’un ancrage dans une sociologie du risque permet de sortir de l’image de victime ou de déviance associée généralement aux jeunes de la rue mais qu’elle demeure marquée par la promotion de la sécurité légitimant intervention et régulation de la situation des jeunes de la rue tout en ignorant l’expérience même des jeunes. Les discours sur les risques associés à la rue sont alors inscrits dans une logique d’expertise. Cette étude vise à sortir de ces préconceptions des risques pris par les jeunes de la rue pour au contraire s’attarder à comprendre comment se définit le risque à partir du sens que les jeunes accordent et les expériences qu’ils en ont. Mots clés: jeunes itinérants, jeunes de la rue, le risque, à risque, victimisation, déviance, identité.

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During the last 2 decades, the public and private sectors have made substantial international research progress toward improving the nutritional value of a wide range of food and feed crops. Nevertheless, significant numbers of people still suffer from the effects of undernutrition. In addition, the nutritional quality of feed is often a limiting factor in livestock production systems, particularly those in developing countries. As newly developed crops with nutritionally improved traits come closer to being available to producers and consumers, we must ensure that scientifically sound and efficient processes are used to assess the safety and nutritional quality of these crops. Such processes will facilitate deploying these crops to those world areas with large numbers of people who need them. This document describes 5 case studies of crops with improved nutritional value. These case studies examine the principles and recommendations published by the Intl. Life Sciences Inst. (ILSI) in 2004 for the safety and nutritional assessment of foods and feeds derived from nutritionally improved crops (ILSI 2004). One overarching conclusion that spans all 5 case studies is that the comparative safety assessment process is a valid approach. Such a process has been endorsed by many publications and organizations, including the 2004 ILSI publication. The type and extent of data that are appropriate for a scientifically sound comparative safety assessment are presented on a case-by-case basis in a manner that takes into account scientific results published since the 2004 ILSI report. This report will appear in the January issue of Comprehensive Reviews in Food Science and Food Safety.

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It is contended that the current conceptual distinction between risk management and value management is unsustainable. The origins of the two traditions are reviewed and critiqued from a postmodernist perspective. It is concluded that they differ primarily in terms of their rhetoric, rather than their substantive content. Insights into the current practice of risk and value management are provided by considering their enactment in terms of ‘performance’. The scripts for such performances are seen to be provided by the accepted methodologies which determine the language to be used and the roles to be acted out. A coherent integrated script for risk and value management can be provided by the methodology known as strategic choice, which replaces the language ofriskand ‘value’ with that of ‘uncertainty’. The benefits of adopting this alternative script are illustrated through six case studies.

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This paper describes advances in ground-based thermodynamic profiling of the lower troposphere through sensor synergy. The well-documented integrated profiling technique (IPT), which uses a microwave profiler, a cloud radar, and a ceilometer to simultaneously retrieve vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and liquid water content (LWC) of nonprecipitating clouds, is further developed toward an enhanced performance in the boundary layer and lower troposphere. For a more accurate temperature profile, this is accomplished by including an elevation scanning measurement modus of the microwave profiler. Height-dependent RMS accuracies of temperature (humidity) ranging from 0.3 to 0.9 K (0.5–0.8 g m−3) in the boundary layer are derived from retrieval simulations and confirmed experimentally with measurements at distinct heights taken during the 2005 International Lindenberg Campaign for Assessment of Humidity and Cloud Profiling Systems and its Impact on High-Resolution Modeling (LAUNCH) of the German Weather Service. Temperature inversions, especially of the lower boundary layer, are captured in a very satisfactory way by using the elevation scanning mode. To improve the quality of liquid water content measurements in clouds the authors incorporate a sophisticated target classification scheme developed within the European cloud observing network CloudNet. It allows the detailed discrimination between different types of backscatterers detected by cloud radar and ceilometer. Finally, to allow IPT application also to drizzling cases, an LWC profiling method is integrated. This technique classifies the detected hydrometeors into three different size classes using certain thresholds determined by radar reflectivity and/or ceilometer extinction profiles. By inclusion into IPT, the retrieved profiles are made consistent with the measurements of the microwave profiler and an LWC a priori profile. Results of IPT application to 13 days of the LAUNCH campaign are analyzed, and the importance of integrated profiling for model evaluation is underlined.

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This paper develops a framework of risk and protective factors to conceptualise the relationship between HIV-related stigma, asset inheritance and chronic poverty among widows and caregiving children and youth in eastern Africa. Analysis of two qualitative studies with 85 participants in rural and urban areas of Tanzania and Uganda reveals that gendered and generational inequalities and stigmatisation sometimes led to property grabbing and chronic poverty. Human and social capital and preventative measures however may help widows and caregiving young people in HIV-affected households to safeguard land and other assets, within a wider supportive environment that seeks to tackle structural inequalities.

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Parkinson’s disease (PD) is an increasing neurological disorder in an aging society. The motor and non-motor symptoms of PD advance with the disease progression and occur in varying frequency and duration. In order to affirm the full extent of a patient’s condition, repeated assessments are necessary to adjust medical prescription. In clinical studies, symptoms are assessed using the unified Parkinson’s disease rating scale (UPDRS). On one hand, the subjective rating using UPDRS relies on clinical expertise. On the other hand, it requires the physical presence of patients in clinics which implies high logistical costs. Another limitation of clinical assessment is that the observation in hospital may not accurately represent a patient’s situation at home. For such reasons, the practical frequency of tracking PD symptoms may under-represent the true time scale of PD fluctuations and may result in an overall inaccurate assessment. Current technologies for at-home PD treatment are based on data-driven approaches for which the interpretation and reproduction of results are problematic.  The overall objective of this thesis is to develop and evaluate unobtrusive computer methods for enabling remote monitoring of patients with PD. It investigates first-principle data-driven model based novel signal and image processing techniques for extraction of clinically useful information from audio recordings of speech (in texts read aloud) and video recordings of gait and finger-tapping motor examinations. The aim is to map between PD symptoms severities estimated using novel computer methods and the clinical ratings based on UPDRS part-III (motor examination). A web-based test battery system consisting of self-assessment of symptoms and motor function tests was previously constructed for a touch screen mobile device. A comprehensive speech framework has been developed for this device to analyze text-dependent running speech by: (1) extracting novel signal features that are able to represent PD deficits in each individual component of the speech system, (2) mapping between clinical ratings and feature estimates of speech symptom severity, and (3) classifying between UPDRS part-III severity levels using speech features and statistical machine learning tools. A novel speech processing method called cepstral separation difference showed stronger ability to classify between speech symptom severities as compared to existing features of PD speech. In the case of finger tapping, the recorded videos of rapid finger tapping examination were processed using a novel computer-vision (CV) algorithm that extracts symptom information from video-based tapping signals using motion analysis of the index-finger which incorporates a face detection module for signal calibration. This algorithm was able to discriminate between UPDRS part III severity levels of finger tapping with high classification rates. Further analysis was performed on novel CV based gait features constructed using a standard human model to discriminate between a healthy gait and a Parkinsonian gait. The findings of this study suggest that the symptom severity levels in PD can be discriminated with high accuracies by involving a combination of first-principle (features) and data-driven (classification) approaches. The processing of audio and video recordings on one hand allows remote monitoring of speech, gait and finger-tapping examinations by the clinical staff. On the other hand, the first-principles approach eases the understanding of symptom estimates for clinicians. We have demonstrated that the selected features of speech, gait and finger tapping were able to discriminate between symptom severity levels, as well as, between healthy controls and PD patients with high classification rates. The findings support suitability of these methods to be used as decision support tools in the context of PD assessment.

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We consider the critical short-time evolution of magnetic and droplet-percolation order parameters for the Ising model in two and three dimensions, through Monte Carlo simulations with the (local) heat-bath method. We find qualitatively different dynamic behaviors for the two types of order parameters. More precisely, we find that the percolation order parameter does not have a power-law behavior as encountered for the magnetization, but develops a scale (related to the relaxation time to equilibrium) in the Monte Carlo time. We argue that this difference is due to the difficulty in forming large clusters at the early stages of the evolution. Our results show that, although the descriptions in terms of magnetic and percolation order parameters may be equivalent in the equilibrium regime, greater care must be taken to interpret percolation observables at short times. In particular, this concerns the attempts to describe the dynamics of the deconfinement phase transition in QCD using cluster observables.

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Color vision consists of the discrimination of objects based on their spectral composition. Among primates, the majority of Platyrrhini monkeys are estimated to have polymorphic and sex-linked dichromacy. The objective of this study was to compare the results produced by different equipment and software for the assessment of tri- and dichromatic conditions in one male and two female Cebus apella. Three experiments were programmed. In Experiment 1, verifying the trichromatic condition of one female subject and dichromatic condition of the remainder of the subjects was possible using an adapted version of the Cambridge Colour Test. Experiment 2 confirmed the results of Experiment 1 using a different array of stimuli of the same test. Experiment 3, which produced results similar to Experiment 2, consisted of a test developed for a standard computer system using stimuli with color properties similar to the ones used in the previous experiment. Favorable conditions for the assessment of color vision in Platyrrhini can be built with low-cost equipment and software. Once data have been gathered with additional subjects and new stimulus arrangements have been tested and confirmed, the procedure can be used for the evaluation of other Platyrrhini species for which behavioral color discrimination data are currently lacking.