Testing Turing's five minutes, parallel-paired imitation game

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to consider Turing's two tests for machine intelligence: the parallel-paired, three-participants game presented in his 1950 paper, and the “jury-service” one-to-one measure described two years later in a radio broadcast. Both versions were instantiated in practical Turing tests during the 18th Loebner Prize for artificial intelligence hosted at the University of Reading, UK, in October 2008. This involved jury-service tests in the preliminary phase and parallel-paired in the final phase. Design/methodology/approach – Almost 100 test results from the final have been evaluated and this paper reports some intriguing nuances which arose as a result of the unique contest. Findings – In the 2008 competition, Turing's 30 per cent pass rate is not achieved by any machine in the parallel-paired tests but Turing's modified prediction: “at least in a hundred years time” is remembered. Originality/value – The paper presents actual responses from “modern Elizas” to human interrogators during contest dialogues that show considerable improvement in artificial conversational entities (ACE). Unlike their ancestor – Weizenbaum's natural language understanding system – ACE are now able to recall, share information and disclose personal interests.

L’AIR nella pratica di una Autorità indipendente: l’esperienza dell’Autorità per l’energia elettrica e il gas di applicazione dell’AIR alla regolazione della qualità del servizio

In the last ten years Regulatory Impact Analysis has become the instrument providing groundwork for evidence-based regulatory decisions in most developed countries. However, to an increase in quantity, it did not correspond an increase in quality. In Italy, Regulatory Impact Analysis has been in place for ten years on paper, but in practice it has not been performed consistently. Of particular interest is the case of independent regulatory authorities, which have been required to apply Regulatory Impact Analysis since 2003. This paper explores how Regulatory Impact Analysis is carried out, by examining in depth how an individual case –on the Regulation for Quality of Service- was executed by the Autorità per l’energia elettrica e il gas. The aim is to provide a picture of the process leading to the final Regulatory Impact Analysis report, rather than just a study of its content. The case illustrates how Regulatory Impact Analysis, when properly employed, can be an important aid to the regulatory decision, not only by assessing ex ante the economic impacts of regulatory proposals in terms of costs, benefits and risks, but also opening the spectrum of policy alternatives and systematically considering stakeholder opinions as part of the decision-making process. This case highlights also several difficulties, analytical and process-related, that emerge in practical applications. Finally, it shows that the experience and expertise built by the regulatory authority over the years had a significant impact on the quality of the analysis.

“Financial alchemy” or a zero sum game? Real estate finance, securitisation and the UK property market

Following the US model, the UK has seen considerable innovation in the funding, finance and procurement of real estate in the last decade. In the growing CMBS market asset backed securitisations have included $2.25billion secured on the Broadgate office development and issues secured on Canary Wharf and the Trafford Centre regional mall. Major occupiers (retailer Sainsbury’s, retail bank Abbey National) have engaged in innovative sale & leaseback and outsourcing schemes. Strong claims are made concerning the benefits of such schemes – e.g. British Land were reported to have reduced their weighted cost of debt by 150bp as a result of the Broadgate issue. The paper reports preliminary findings from a project funded by the Corporation of London and the RICS Research Foundation examining a number of innovative schemes to identify, within a formal finance framework, sources of added value and hidden costs. The analysis indicates that many of the gains claimed conceal costs – in terms of market value of debt or flexibility of management – while others result from unusual firm or market conditions (for example utilising the UK long lease and the unusual shape of the yield curve). Nonetheless, there are real gains resulting from the innovations, reflecting arbitrage and institutional constraints in the direct (private) real estate market

Real options and game theoretical approaches to real estate development projects: multiple equilibria and the implications of different tie-breaking rules

This paper contributes to a fast growing literature which introduces game theory in the analysis of real option investments in a competitive setting. Specifically, in this paper we focus on the issue of multiple equilibria and on the implications that different equilibrium selections may have for the pricing of real options and for subsequent strategic decisions. We present some theoretical results of the necessary conditions to have multiple equilibria and we show under which conditions different tie-breaking rules result in different economic decisions. We then present a numerical exercise using the in formation set obtained on a real estate development in South London. We find that risk aversion reduces option value and this reduction decreases marginally as negative externalities decrease.