Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts

Existing empirical evidence has frequently observed that professional forecasters are conservative and display herding behaviour. Whilst a large number of papers have considered equities as well as macroeconomic series, few have considered the accuracy of forecasts in alternative asset classes such as real estate. We consider the accuracy of forecasts for the UK commercial real estate market over the period 1999-2011. The results illustrate that forecasters display a tendency to under-estimate growth rates during strong market conditions and over-estimate when the market is performing poorly. This conservatism not only results in smoothed estimates but also implies that forecasters display herding behaviour. There is also a marked difference in the relative accuracy of capital and total returns versus rental figures. Whilst rental growth forecasts are relatively accurate, considerable inaccuracy is observed with respect to capital value and total returns.

Spectral analysis and the Aharonov-Bohm\~ effect on certain almost-Riemannian manifold

We study spectral properties of the Laplace-Beltrami operator on two relevant almost-Riemannian manifolds, namely the Grushin structures on the cylinder and on the sphere. This operator contains first order diverging terms caused by the divergence of the volume. We get explicit descriptions of the spectrum and the eigenfunctions. In particular in both cases we get a Weyl's law with leading term Elog E. We then study the drastic effect of Aharonov-Bohm magnetic potentials on the spectral properties. Other generalised Riemannian structures including conic and anti-conic type manifolds are also studied. In this case, the Aharonov-Bohm magnetic potential may affect the self-adjointness of the Laplace-Beltrami operator.

Modelling spectral reflectance of open cork oak woodland: a simulation analysis of the effects of vegetation structure and background

This study analyses the influence of vegetation structure (i.e. leaf area index and canopy cover) and seasonal background changes on moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS)-simulated reflectance data in open woodland. Approximately monthly spectral reflectance and transmittance field measurements (May 2011 to October 2013) of cork oak tree leaves (Quercus suber) and of the herbaceous understorey were recorded in the region of Ribatejo, Portugal. The geometric-optical and radiative transfer (GORT) model was used to simulate MODIS response (red, near-infrared) and to calculate vegetation indices, investigating their response to changes in the structure of the overstorey vegetation and to seasonal changes in the understorey using scenarios corresponding to contrasting phenological status (dry season vs. wet season). The performance of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) is discussed. Results showed that SAVI and EVI were very sensitive to the emergence of background vegetation in the wet season compared to NDVI and that shading effects lead to an opposing trend in the vegetation indices. The information provided by this research can be useful to improve our understanding of the temporal dynamic of vegetation, monitored by vegetation indices.

High-precision measurements of the co-polar correlation coefficient: non-Gaussian errors and retrieval of the dispersion parameter µ in rainfall

The co-polar correlation coefficient (ρhv) has many applications, including hydrometeor classification, ground clutter and melting layer identification, interpretation of ice microphysics and the retrieval of rain drop size distributions (DSDs). However, we currently lack the quantitative error estimates that are necessary if these applications are to be fully exploited. Previous error estimates of ρhv rely on knowledge of the unknown "true" ρhv and implicitly assume a Gaussian probability distribution function of ρhv samples. We show that frequency distributions of ρhv estimates are in fact highly negatively skewed. A new variable: L = -log10(1 - ρhv) is defined, which does have Gaussian error statistics, and a standard deviation depending only on the number of independent radar pulses. This is verified using observations of spherical drizzle drops, allowing, for the first time, the construction of rigorous confidence intervals in estimates of ρhv. In addition, we demonstrate how the imperfect co-location of the horizontal and vertical polarisation sample volumes may be accounted for. The possibility of using L to estimate the dispersion parameter (µ) in the gamma drop size distribution is investigated. We find that including drop oscillations is essential for this application, otherwise there could be biases in retrieved µ of up to ~8. Preliminary results in rainfall are presented. In a convective rain case study, our estimates show µ to be substantially larger than 0 (an exponential DSD). In this particular rain event, rain rate would be overestimated by up to 50% if a simple exponential DSD is assumed.

Spectral modulation detection in normal hearing children

This Capstone Project attempts to determine the ability of normal hearing children to resolve spectral information, and the relationship between spectral resolution ability and speech recognition ability in noise. This study also examines how these abilities develop with age.

Predicting spectral features in galaxy spectra from broad-band photometry

We explore the prospects of predicting emission-line features present in galaxy spectra given broad-band photometry alone. There is a general consent that colours, and spectral features, most notably the 4000 angstrom break, can predict many properties of galaxies, including star formation rates and hence they could infer some of the line properties. We argue that these techniques have great prospects in helping us understand line emission in extragalactic objects and might speed up future galaxy redshift surveys if they are to target emission-line objects only. We use two independent methods, Artificial Neural Networks (based on the ANNz code) and Locally Weighted Regression (LWR), to retrieve correlations present in the colour N-dimensional space and to predict the equivalent widths present in the corresponding spectra. We also investigate how well it is possible to separate galaxies with and without lines from broad-band photometry only. We find, unsurprisingly, that recombination lines can be well predicted by galaxy colours. However, among collisional lines some can and some cannot be predicted well from galaxy colours alone, without any further redshift information. We also use our techniques to estimate how much information contained in spectral diagnostic diagrams can be recovered from broad-band photometry alone. We find that it is possible to classify active galactic nuclei and star formation objects relatively well using colours only. We suggest that this technique could be used to considerably improve redshift surveys such as the upcoming Fibre Multi Object Spectrograph (FMOS) survey and the planned Wide Field Multi Object Spectrograph (WFMOS) survey.

Relativistic dispersion effects on SS433 jets

We here investigate the dispersion properties of radiation in the SS433 relativistic jets. We assume that the jet is composed of cold electron-proton plasma immersed in a predominantly parallel magnetic field to the jet axis. We find that for the mildly relativistic source SS433 (for which similar or equal to 79 degrees), the bulk velocity is too small (v similar or equal to 0.26c) to produce significant changes in the dispersion properties of the medium. Nonetheless, in the rarefied outer regions of the jets, where radio emission dominates, even a weak magnetic field has some influence on the dispersion properties and there appear two different electromagnetic branches that are slightly sensitive to the bulk relativistic motion. In the inner, X-ray region, the magnetic field is much stronger, but in this region the high electron density preserves the isotropic character of the local plasma and no branch separation occurs. In the region of the jet where the IR and optical emission dominates, the cold plasma may be also considered isotropic, i.e., neither the magnetic field nor the bulk velocity is able to affect the propagation of the radiation. Finally, we find that the Doppler line displacement in SS433 is affected by plasma dispersion only in a narrow frequency range in the far IR. As a consequence, although the shift (z) modulation due to precession of the SS433 jets is well described by previous work, it has to be corrected by plasma dispersion effects in the far-IR range.

Spectral analysis and modeling of microcyclostratigraphy in late Paleozoic glaciogenic rhythmites, Parana Basin, Brazil

We investigate the depositional time scale of lithological couplets (fine sandstone/siltstone-siltstone/mudstone) from two distinctive outcrops of Permo-Carboniferous glacial rhythmites in the Itarare Group (Parana Basin, Brazil). Resolving the fundamental issue of time scale for these rhythmites is important in light of recent evidence for paleosecular variation measured in these sequences. Spectral analysis and tuning of high-resolution gray scale scans of sediment core microstratigraphy, which comprises pervasive laminations, reveal a comparable spectral content at both localities, with a frequency suite interpreted as that of short-term climate variability of Recent and modern times. This evidence for decadal- to centennial-scale deposition of these lithological couplets is discussed in light of the `varvic` character, i.e., annual time scale that was previously assumed for the rhythmites.

Deep crustal structure of the Parana Basin from receiver functions and Rayleigh-wave dispersion: Evidence for a fragmented cratonic root

The deep crustal structure of the Parana Basin of southern Brazil is investigated by analyzing P- and PP-wave receiver functions at 17 Brazilian Lithosphere Seismic Project stations within the basin. The study area can be described as a typical Paleozoic intracratonic basin that hosts one of the largest Large Igneous Province of the world and makes a unique setting for investigating models of basin subsidence and their interaction with mantle plumes. Our study consists of (1) an analysis of the Moho interaction phases in the receiver functions to obtain the thickness and bulk Vp/Vs ratio of the basin`s underlying crust and (2) a joint inversion with Rayleigh-wave dispersion velocities from an independent tomographic study to delineate the detailed S-wave velocity variation with depth. The results of our analysis reveal that Moho depths and bulk Vp/Vs ratios (including sediments) vary between 41 and 48 km and between 1.70 and 1.76, respectively, with the largest values roughly coinciding with the basin`s axis, and that S-wave velocities in the lower crust are generally below 3.8 km/s. Select sites within the basin, however, show lower crustal S-wave velocities slightly above 3.9 km/s suggestive of underplated mafic material. We show that these observations are consistent with a fragmented cratonic root under the Parana basin that defined a zone of weakness for the initial Paleozoic subsidence of the basin and which allowed localized mafic underplating of the crust along the suture zones by Cenozoic magmatism.

Paleoamerican Morphology in the Context of European and East Asian Late Pleistocene Variation: Implications for Human Dispersion Into the New World

Early American crania show a different morphological pattern from the one shared by late Native Americans. Although the origin of the diachronic morphological diversity seen on the continents is still debated, the distinct morphology of early Americans is well documented and widely dispersed. This morphology has been described extensively for South America, where larger samples are available. Here we test the hypotheses that the morphology of Early Americans results from retention of the morphological pattern of Late Pleistocene modern humans and that the occupation of the New World precedes the morphological differentiation that gave rise to recent Eurasian and American morphology. We compare Early American samples with European Upper Paleolithic skulls, the East Asian Zhoukoudian Upper Cave specimens and a series of 20 modern human reference crania. Canonical Analysis and Minimum Spanning Tree were used to assess the morphological affinities among the series, while Mantel and Dow-Cheverud tests based on Mahalanobis Squared Distances were used to test different evolutionary scenarios. Our results show strong morphological affinities among the early series irrespective of geographical origin, which together with the matrix analyses results favor the scenario of a late morphological differentiation of modern humans. We conclude that the geographic differentiation of modern human morphology is a late phenomenon that occurred after the initial settlement of the Americas. Am J Phys Anthropol 144:442-453, 2011. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Partial spectral projected gradient method with active-set strategy for linearly constrained optimization

A method for linearly constrained optimization which modifies and generalizes recent box-constraint optimization algorithms is introduced. The new algorithm is based on a relaxed form of Spectral Projected Gradient iterations. Intercalated with these projected steps, internal iterations restricted to faces of the polytope are performed, which enhance the efficiency of the algorithm. Convergence proofs are given and numerical experiments are included and commented. Software supporting this paper is available through the Tango Project web page: http://www.ime.usp.br/similar to egbirgin/tango/.

Mass spectral characterization of submicron biogenic organic particles in the Amazon Basin

Submicron atmospheric particles in the Amazon Basin were characterized by a high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometer during the wet season of 2008. Patterns in the mass spectra closely resembled those of secondary-organic-aerosol (SOA) particles formed in environmental chambers from biogenic precursor gases. In contrast, mass spectral indicators of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) were insignificant, suggesting that PBAPs contributed negligibly to the submicron fraction of particles during the period of study. For 40% of the measurement periods, the mass spectra indicate that in-Basin biogenic SOA production was the dominant source of the submicron mass fraction, contrasted to other periods (30%) during which out-of-Basin organic-carbon sources were significant on top of the baseline in-Basin processes. The in-Basin periods had an average organic-particle loading of 0.6 mu g m(-3) and an average elemental oxygen-to-carbon (O:C) ratio of 0.42, compared to 0.9 mu g m(-3) and 0.49, respectively, during periods of out-of-Basin influence. On the basis of the data, we conclude that most of the organic material composing submicron particles over the Basin derived from biogenic SOA production, a finding that is consistent with microscopy observations made in a concurrent study. This source was augmented during some periods by aged organic material delivered by long-range transport. Citation: Chen, Q., et al. (2009), Mass spectral characterization of submicron biogenic organic particles in the Amazon Basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20806, doi: 10.1029/2009GL039880.

Spectral absorption properties of aerosol particles from 350-2500nm

The aerosol spectral absorption efficiency (alpha(a) in m(2)/g) is measured over an extended wavelength range (350-2500 nm) using an improved calibrated and validated reflectance technique and applied to urban aerosol samples from Sao Paulo, Brazil and from a site in Virginia, Eastern US, that experiences transported urban/industrial aerosol. The average alpha(a) values (similar to 3m(2)/g at 550 nm) for Sao Paulo samples are 10 times larger than a a values obtained for aerosols in Virginia. Sao Paulo aerosols also show evidence of enhanced UV absorption in selected samples, probably associated with organic aerosol components. This extra UV absorption can double the absorption efficiency observed from black carbon alone, therefore reducing by up to 50% the surface UV fluxes, with important implications for climate, UV photolysis rates, and remote sensing from space. Citation: Martins, J.V., P. Artaxo, Y.J. Kaufman, A.D. Castanho, and L.A. Remer (2009), Spectral absorption properties of aerosol particles from 350-2500nm, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L13810, doi: 10.1029/2009GL037435.

Dielectric Dispersion of Water in the Frequency Range from 10 mHz to 30 MHz

We investigate the dielectric dispersion of water, specially in the low-frequency range, by using the impedance spectroscopy technique. The frequency dependencies of the real R and imaginary Z parts of the impedance Could not be explained by means of the Usual description of the dielectric properties of the water as all insulating liquid containing ions. This is due to the incomplete knowledge of the parameters entering in the fundamental equations describing the evolution of the system, and oil the mechanisms regulating the exchange of charge of the cell with the external circuit. We propose a simple description of our experimental data based on the model of Debye, by invoking a dc conductivity of the cell, related to the nonblocking character of the electrodes. A discussion on the electric Circuits able to simulate the cell under investigation, based oil bulk and Surface elements, is also reported. We find that the simple circuit formed by a series of two parallels of resistance and capacitance is able to reproduce the experimental data concerning the real and imaginary part of the electrical impedance of the cell for frequency larger than 1 Hz. According to this description, one of the parallels takes into account the electrical properties of interface between the electrode and water, and the other of the bulk. For frequency lower than 1 Hz, a good agreement with the experimental data is obtained by simulating the electrical properties of the interface by means of the constant phase element.