Vasculogenesis: A process of vessel formation and its role during Ewing's sarcoma development

Vasculogenesis is the process by which Endothelial Precursor Cells (EPCs) form a vasculature. This process has been traditionally regarded as an embryological process of vessel formation. However, as early as in the 60's the concept of postnatal vasculogenesis was introduced, with a strong resurface of this idea in recent years. Similarly, previous work on a mouse skin tumor model provided us with the grounds to consider the role of vasculogenesis during tumor formation. ^ We examined the contribution of donor bone marrow (BM)-derived cells to neovascularization in recipient nude mice with Ewing's sarcoma. Ewing's sarcoma is a primitive neuroectodermal tumor that most often affects children and young adults between 5 and 30 years of age. Despite multiple attempts to improve the efficacy of chemotherapy for the disease, the 2-year metastases-free survival rate for patients with Ewing's sarcoma has not improved over the past 15 years. New therapeutic approaches are therefore needed to reduce the mortality rate. ^ The contribution of BM endothelial precursor cells in the development of Ewing's sarcoma was examined using different strategies to track the donor-derived cells. Using a BMT model that takes advantage of MHC differences between donor and recipient mice, we have found that donor BM cells were involved in the formation of Ewing's sarcoma vasculature. ^ Cells responsible for this vasculogenesis activity may be located within the stem cell population of the murine BM. These stem cells would not only generate the hematopoietic lineage but they would also generate ECs. Bone marrow SP (Side Population) cells pertain to a subpopulation that can be identified using flow cytometric analysis of Hoechst 33342-stained BM. This population of cells has HSC activity. We have tested the ability of BM SP cells to contribute to vasculogenesis in Ewing's sarcoma using our MHC mismatched transplant model. Mice transplanted with SP cells developed tumor neovessels that were derived from the donor SP cells. Thus, SP cells not only replenished the hematopoietic system of the lethally irradiated mice, but also differentiated into a non-hematopoietic cell lineage and contributed to the formation of the tumor vasculature. ^ In summary, we have demonstrated that BM-derived cells are involved in the generation of the new vasculature during the growth of Ewing's sarcoma. The finding that vasculogenesis plays a role in Ewing's sarcoma development opens the possibility of using genetically modified BM-derived cells for the treatment of Ewing's sarcomas. ^

EphA2 expression is regulated by EGFR and KRAS and promotes non-small cell lung cancer progression

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. The development of improved systemic therapy is needed for the most common form of the disease, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This will depend on the identification of valid molecular targets. Recent studies point to the receptor tyrosine kinase EphA2 as a novel therapeutic target. Overexpression of EphA2 has been demonstrated in a number of epithelial cancers, and its expression has been associated with more severe disease. Regulation of EphA2 in cancer is poorly understood. Recently, regulation of EphA2 by EGFR and KRAS has been reported in a number of in vitro models, but no examination of this relationship has been undertaken in patient tumors. Because of the established importance of EGFR and KRAS in NSCLC, we have investigated the relationship between these mutations and EphA2 in NSCLC patient tissues and cell lines. The significance of Epha2 expression was further examined by testing for correlation with survival, metastases, histology, and smoking status in patient tissues, and tumor cell proliferation and migration in vitro. EphA2 expression was analyzed in by immunohistochemistry in tissue microarray (TMA) format utilizing surgically resected lung cancer specimens. EGFR and KRAS mutation status was determined for the majority of specimens. EphA2 expression was detected in >90% of NSCLC tumors. High EphA2 expression was associated with decreased time to recurrence and metastases, and predicted poorer progression free and overall survival. Expression of EphA2 was positively correlated with activated EGFR and with KRAS mutation. Expression of EphA2 was also positively correlated with a history of smoking. There was no association between gender or histology and EphA2 expression. In H322 cells, activation of EGFR or KRAS resulted in an increase in EphA2 protein expression. Downregulation of EphA2 resulted in decreased proliferation in a clonal growth assay, and inhibited migration in a wound healing assay, in a panel of cell lines. The decrease in proliferation correlated with a transient decrease in the levels of phospho-ERK, a downstream effector of EGFR and KRAS. Based on these data, the potential of EphA2 as a therapeutic target for NSCLC should be further investigated. ^

Association between severity of Clostridium difficile disease and different types of toxins---A systematic review

Clostridium difficile is the most important and common cause of hospital-acquired diarrhea. Toxin A and B are two important protein toxins responsible for C. difficile disease. This systematic review was undertaken to summarize the association between severity of C. difficile disease and different types of toxins. Only 5 studies were found that met the inclusion criteria. Only two studies reported results that were statistically significant and that the C. difficile disease was more severe in patient with binary toxin genes. Other three studies did not report significant findings but the authors stated that these studies were too small to detect true association. The main difference between the studies which detect association and those which did not detect association was the sample size. Well-designed and large scale studies are needed to strengthen the relationship between severe disease and toxin types. ^

Prospective gated 64 slice computed tomography in assessment of coronary artery disease: A single center experience and relationship of body mass index to outcomes

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. While Coronary Angiography (CA) is the gold standard test to investigate coronary artery disease, Prospective gated-64 Slice Computed Tomography (Prosp-64CT) is a new non-invasive technology that uses the 64Slice computed tomography (64CT) with electrocardiographic gating to investigate coronary artery disease. The aim of the current study was to investigate the role of Body Mass Index (BMI) as a factor affecting occurrence of CA after a Prosp-64CT, as well as the quality of the Prosp-64CT. Demographic and clinical characteristics of the study population were described. A secondary analysis of data on patients who underwent a Prosp-64CT for evaluation of coronary artery disease was performed. Seventy seven patients who underwent Prosp-64CT for evaluation for coronary artery disease were included. Fifteen patients were excluded because they had missing data regarding BMI, quality of the Prosp-64CT or CA. Thus, a total of 62 patients were included in the final analysis. The mean age was 56.2 years. The mean BMI was 31.3 kg/m 2. Eight (13%) patients underwent a CA within one month of Prosp-64CT. Eight (13%) patients had a poor quality Prosp-64CT. There was significant association of higher BMI as a factor for occurrence of CA post Prosp-64CT (P<0.05). There was a trend, but no statistical significance was observed for the association of being obese and occurrence of CA (P=0.06). BMI, as well as obesity, were not found to be significantly associated with poor quality of Prosp-64CT (P=0.19 and P=0.76, respectively). In conclusion, BMI was significantly associated with occurrence of CA within one month of Prosp-64CT. Thus, in patients with a higher BMI, diagnostic investigation with both tests could be avoided; rather, only a CA could be performed. However, the relationship of BMI to quality of Prosp-64CT needs to be further investigated since the sample size of the current study was small.^

A PUBLIC HEALTH SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM FOR THE WESTERN CAYO DISTRICT, BELIZE (DISEASE)

A demonstration project entailing disease surveillance was conducted in the western Cayo District, Belize, from November 1981 to March 1982. The purpose was to test and demonstrate the feasibility of community-based surveillance. Interviews were conducted in three hundred twenty households at monthly intervals over a five-month period. Information regarding disease prevalence and medical care utilization relevant to public health practice was analyzed by staff attached to the health center in Benque Viejo. Data collected at the health center were used to validate reported findings.^ Differences between reported and actual study findings regarding clinic visits were small, though in many instances statistically significant. The proportion of underreported clinic visits was greater than the proportion overreported. Overall, reporting accuracy improved with time, particularly from the first to second month. Clinic utilization experience reported for men was as accurate as that reported for females.^ There was agreement between interview and clinic disease findings. In fact, the proportion of conditions defined in the interview and matched to clinic findings was high (malaria, diarrhea, dysentery, skin sores and ulcerations, and problems of nutrition) except for upper respiratory disorders. Finally, some conditions were more likely to be taken to the health center than others, e.g., children with diarrhea or skin sores and ulcerations were less likely to be taken to the health center than if they had malaria. ^

Network-based genome-wide association study of Crohn's disease

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have rapidly become a standard method for disease gene discovery. Many recent GWAS indicate that for most disorders, only a few common variants are implicated and the associated SNPs explain only a small fraction of the genetic risk. The current study incorporated gene network information into gene-based analysis of GWAS data for Crohn's disease (CD). The purpose was to develop statistical models to boost the power of identifying disease-associated genes and gene subnetworks by maximizing the use of existing biological knowledge from multiple sources. The results revealed that Markov random field (MRF) based mixture model incorporating direct neighborhood information from a single gene network is not efficient in identifying CD-related genes based on the GWAS data. The incorporation of solely direct neighborhood information might lead to the low efficiency of these models. Alternative MRF models looking beyond direct neighboring information are necessary to be developed in the future for the purpose of this study.^

Genetic Predictors of Clinical Outcomes in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality in the US. Emerging evidence has shown that host genetic factors can interact with environmental exposures to influence patient susceptibility to the diseases as well as clinical outcomes, such as survival and recurrence. We aimed to identify genetic prognostic markers for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), a major (85%) subtype of lung cancer, and also in other subgroups. With the fast evolution of genotyping technology, genetic association studies have went through candidate gene approach, to pathway-based approach, to the genome wide association study (GWAS). Even in the era of GWAS, pathway-based approach has its own advantages on studying cancer clinical outcomes: it is cost-effective, requiring a smaller sample size than GWAS easier to identify a validation population and explore gene-gene interactions. In the current study, we adopted pathway-based approach focusing on two critical pathways - miRNA and inflammation pathways. MicroRNAs (miRNA) post-transcriptionally regulate around 30% of human genes. Polymorphisms within miRNA processing pathways and binding sites may influence patients’ prognosis through altered gene regulation. Inflammation plays an important role in cancer initiation and progression, and also has shown to impact patients’ clinical outcomes. We first evaluated 240 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in miRNA biogenesis genes and predicted binding sites in NSCLC patients to determine associations with clinical outcomes in early-stage (stage I and II) and late-stage (stage III and IV) lung cancer patients, respectively. First, in 535 early-stage patients, after correcting multiple comparisons, FZD4:rs713065 (hazard ratio [HR]:0.46, 95% confidence interval [CI]:0.32-0.65) showed a significant inverse association with survival in early stage surgery-only patients. SP1:rs17695156 (HR:2.22, 95% CI:1.44-3.41) and DROSHA:rs6886834 (HR:6.38, 95% CI:2.49-16.31) conferred increased risk of progression in the all patients and surgery-only populations, respectively. FAS:rs2234978 was significantly associated with improved survival in all patients (HR:0.59, 95% CI:0.44-0.77) and in the surgery plus chemotherapy populations (HR:0.19, 95% CI:0.07-0.46).. Functional genomics analysis demonstrated that this variant creates a miR-651 binding site resulting in altered miRNA regulation of FAS, providing biological plausibility for the observed association. We then analyzed these associations in 598 late-stage patients. After multiple comparison corrections, no SNPs remained significant in the late stage group, while the top SNP NAT1:rs15561 (HR=1.98, 96%CI=1.32-2.94) conferred a significantly increased risk of death in the chemotherapy subgroup. To test the hypothesis that genetic variants in the inflammation-related pathways may be associated with survival in NSCLC patients, we first conducted a three-stage study. In the discovery phase, we investigated a comprehensive panel of 11,930 inflammation-related SNPs in three independent lung cancer populations. A missense SNP (rs2071554) in HLA-DOB was significantly associated with poor survival in the discovery population (HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.02-2.09), internal validation population (HR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.02-2.25), and external validation (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.01-2.29) population. Rs2900420 in KLRK1 was significantly associated with a reduced risk for death in the discovery (HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.60-0.96) and internal validation (HR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.61-0.99) populations, and the association reached borderline significance in the external validation population (HR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.63-1.02). We also evaluated these inflammation-related SNPs in NSCLC patients in never smokers. Lung cancer in never smokers has been increasingly recognized as distinct disease from that in ever-smokers. A two-stage study was performed using a discovery population from MD Anderson (411 patients) and a validation population from Mayo Clinic (311 patients). Three SNPs (IL17RA:rs879576, BMP8A:rs698141, and STK:rs290229) that were significantly associated with survival were validated (pCD74:rs1056400 and CD38:rs10805347) were borderline significant (p=0.08) in the Mayo Clinic population. In the combined analysis, IL17RA:rs879576 resulted in a 40% reduction in the risk for death (p=4.1 × 10-5 [p=0.61, heterogeneity test]). We also validated a survival tree created in MD Anderson population in the Mayo Clinic population. In conclusion, our results provided strong evidence that genetic variations in specific pathways that examined (miRNA and inflammation pathways) influenced clinical outcomes in NSCLC patients, and with further functional studies, the novel loci have potential to be translated into clinical use.

Exposure to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and weight loss and hospitalization in non-small cell lung cancer patients

Background. Cancer cachexia is a common syndrome complex in cancer, occurring in nearly 80% of patients with advanced cancer and responsible for at least 20% of all cancer deaths. Cachexia is due to increased resting energy expenditure, increased production of inflammatory mediators, and changes in lipid and protein metabolism. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), by virtue of their anti-inflammatory properties, are possibly protective against cancer-related cachexia. Since cachexia is also associated with increased hospitalizations, this outcome may also show improvement with NSAID exposure. ^ Design. In this retrospective study, computerized records from 700 non-small cell lung cancer patients (NSCLC) were reviewed, and 487 (69.57%) were included in the final analyses. Exclusion criteria were severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, significant peripheral edema, class III or IV congestive heart failure, liver failure, other reasons for weight loss, or use of research or anabolic medications. Information on medication history, body weight and hospitalizations was collected from one year pre-diagnosis until three years post-diagnosis. Exposure to NSAIDs was defined if a patient had a history of being treated with NSAIDs for at least 50% of any given year in the observation period. We used t-test and chi-square tests for statistical analyses. ^ Results. Neither the proportion of patients with cachexia (p=0.27) nor the number of hospitalizations (p=0.74) differed among those with a history of NSAID use (n=92) and those without (n=395). ^ Conclusions. In this study, NSAID exposure was not significantly associated with weight loss or hospital admissions in patients with NSCLC. Further studies may be needed to confirm these observations.^

Genome instability quantified in constitutive tissues as well as putatively stable tumor tissue in hereditary non -polyposis colon cancer patients by small pool PCR

Microsatellite instability (MSI) is a hallmark of the mutator phenotype associated with Hereditary Non-Polyposis Colon Cancer (HNPCC). The MSI-High (MSI-H) HNPCC population has been well characterized, but the microsatellite low and stable (MSI-L/MSS) HNPCC population is much less understood. We hypothesize there are significant levels of MSI in HNPCC DNA classified as MSI-L/MSS, but no single variant allele makes up a sufficient population in the tumor DNA to be detected by standard analysis. Finding variants would suggest there is a mutator phenotype for the MSI-L/MSS HNPCC population that is distinct from the MSI-H HNPCC populations. This study quantified and compared MSI in HNPCC patients previously shown to be MSI-H, MSI-L/MSS and an MSI-H older, sporadic colorectal cancer patient. Small-pool Polymerase Chain Reactions (SP-PCRs) were conducted where the DNAs from each sample and controls are diluted into multiple pools, each containing approximately single genome equivalents. At least 100 alleles/sample were studied at six microsatellite loci. Mutant fragments were identified, quantified, and compared using Poisson statistics. Most of the variants were small deletions or insertions, with more mutants being deletions, as has been previously described in yeast and transgenic mice. SP-PCR, where most of the pools contained only 3 or less fragments, enabled identification of variants too infrequent to be detected by large pool PCR. Mutant fragments in positive control MSI-H tumor samples ranged from 0.26 to 0.68 in at least 4 of the 6 loci tested and were consistent with their MSI-H status. In the so called MSS tumors and constitutive tissues (normal colon tissue, and PBLs) of all the HNPCC patients, low, but significant levels of MSI were seen in at least two of the loci studied. This phenomenon was not seen in the sporadic MSI constitutive tissues nor the normal controls and suggests haploinsufficiency, gain-of-function, or a dominant/negative basis of the instability in HNPCC patients carrying germline mutations for tumor suppressor genes. A different frequency and spectrum of mutant fragments suggests a different genetic basis (other than a major mutation in MLH1 or MSH2) for disease in MSI-L and MSS HNPCC patients. ^

Accident Management Actions In An Upper-Head Small-Break Loss-Of-Coolant Accident With High-Pressure Safety Injection Failed

Since the Three Mile Island accident, an important focus of pressurized water reactor (PWR) transient analyses has been a small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SBLOCA). In 2002, the discovery of thinning of the vessel head wall at the Davis Besse nuclear power plant reactor indicated the possibility of an SBLOCA in the upper head of the reactor vessel as a result of circumferential cracking of a control rod drive mechanism penetration nozzle - which has cast even greater importance on the study of SBLOCAs. Several experimental tests have been performed at the Large Scale Test Facility to simulate the behavior of a PWR during an upper-head SBLOCA. The last of these tests, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency Rig of Safety Assessment (OECD/NEA ROSA) Test 6.1, was performed in 2005. This test was simulated with the TRACE 5.0 code, and good agreement with the experimental results was obtained. Additionally, a broad analysis of an upper-head SBLOCA with high-pressure safety injection failed in a Westinghouse PWR was performed taking into account different accident management actions and conditions in order to check their suitability. This issue has been analyzed also in the framework of the OECD/NEA ROSA project and the Code Applications and Maintenance Program (CAMP). The main conclusion is that the current emergency operating procedures for Westinghouse reactor design are adequate for these kinds of sequences, and they do not need to be modified.

Fishing effort control regulations influence on stability, safety and operability of small fishing vessels: study of a series of stability related accidents occurred in Spain between 2004 and 2007

Entre los años 2004 y 2007 se hundieron por problemas de estabilidad cinco pesqueros españoles de pequeña eslora, de características parecidas, de relativamente poca edad, que habían sido construidos en un intervalo de pocos años. La mayoría de los tripulantes de esos pesqueros fallecieron o desaparecieron en esos accidentes. Este conjunto de accidentes tuvo bastante repercusión social y mediática. Entre ingenieros navales y marinos del sector de la pesca se relacionó estos accidentes con los condicionantes a los diseños de los pesqueros impuestos por la normativa de control de esfuerzo pesquero. Los accidentes fueron investigados y publicados sus correspondientes informes; en ellos no se exploró esta supuesta relación. Esta tesis pretende investigar la relación entre esos accidentes y los cambios de la normativa de esfuerzo pesquero. En la introducción se expone la normativa de control de esfuerzo pesquero analizada, se presentan datos sobre la estructura de la flota pesquera en España y su accidentalidad, y se detallan los criterios de estabilidad manejados durante el trabajo, explicando su relación con la seguridad de los pesqueros. Seguidamente se realiza un análisis estadístico de la siniestralidad en el sector de la pesca para establecer si el conjunto de accidentes estudiados supone una anomalía, o si por el contrario el conjunto de estos accidentes no es relevante desde el punto de vista estadístico. Se analiza la siniestralidad a partir de diversas bases de datos de buques pesqueros en España y se concluye que el conjunto de accidentes estudiados supone una anomalía estadística, ya que la probabilidad de ocurrencia de los cinco sucesos es muy baja considerando la frecuencia estimada de pérdidas de buques por estabilidad en el subsector de la flota pesquera en el que se encuadran los cinco buques perdidos. A continuación el trabajo se centra en la comparación de los buques accidentados con los buques pesqueros dados de baja para construir aquellos, según exige la normativa de control de esfuerzo pesquero; a estos últimos buques nos referiremos como “predecesores” de los buques accidentados. Se comparan las dimensiones principales de cada buque y de su predecesor, resultando que los buques accidentados comparten características de diseño comunes que son sensiblemente diferentes en los buques predecesores, y enlazando dichas características de diseño con los requisitos de la nueva normativa de control del esfuerzo pesquero bajo la que se construyeron estos barcos. Ello permite establecer una relación entre los accidentes y el mencionado cambio normativo. A continuación se compara el margen con que se cumplían los criterios reglamentarios de estabilidad entre los buques accidentados y los predecesores, encontrándose que en cuatro de los cinco casos los predecesores cumplían los criterios de estabilidad con mayor holgura que los buques accidentados. Los resultados obtenidos en este punto permiten establecer una relación entre el cambio de normativa de esfuerzo pesquero y la estabilidad de los buques. Los cinco buques accidentados cumplían con los criterios reglamentarios de estabilidad en vigor, lo que cuestiona la relación entre esos criterios y la seguridad. Por ello se extiende la comparativa entre pesqueros a dos nuevos campos relacionados con la estabilidad y la seguridad delos buques: • Movimientos a bordo (operatividad del buque), y • Criterios de estabilidad en condiciones meteorológicas adversas El estudio de la operatividad muestra que los buques accidentados tenían, en general, una mayor operatividad que sus predecesores, contrariamente a lo que sucedía con el cumplimiento de los criterios reglamentarios de estabilidad. Por último, se comprueba el desempeño de los diez buques en dos criterios específicos de estabilidad en caso de mal tiempo: el criterio IMO de viento y balance intenso, y un criterio de estabilidad de nueva generación, incluyendo la contribución original del autor de considerar agua en cubierta. Las tendencias observadas en estas dos comparativas son opuestas, lo que permite cuestionar la validez del último criterio sin un control exhaustivo de los parámetros de su formulación, poniendo de manifiesto la necesidad de más investigaciones sobre ese criterio antes de su adopción para uso regulatorio. El conjunto de estos resultados permite obtener una serie de conclusiones en la comparativa entre ambos conjuntos de buques pesqueros. Si bien los resultados de este trabajo no muestran que la aprobación de la nueva normativa de esfuerzo pesquero haya significado una merma general de seguridad en sectores enteros de la flota pesquera, sí se concluye que permitió que algunos diseños de buques pesqueros, posiblemente en busca de la mayor eficiencia compatible con dicha normativa, quedaran con una estabilidad precaria, poniendo de manifiesto que la relación entre seguridad y criterios de estabilidad no es unívoca, y la necesidad de que éstos evolucionen y se adapten a los nuevos diseños de buques pesqueros para continuar garantizando su seguridad. También se concluye que la estabilidad es un aspecto transversal del diseño de los buques, por lo que cualquier reforma normativa que afecte al diseño de los pesqueros o su forma de operar debería estar sujeta a evaluación por parte de las autoridades responsables de la seguridad marítima con carácter previo a su aprobación. ABSTRACT Between 2004 and 2007 five small Spanish fishing vessels sank in stability related accidents. These vessels had similar characteristics, had relatively short age, and had been built in a period of a few years. Most crewmembers of these five vessels died or disappeared in those accidents. This set of accidents had significant social and media impact. Among naval architects and seamen of the fishing sector these accidents were related to the design constraints imposed by the fishing control effort regulations. The accidents were investigated and the official reports issued; this alleged relationship was not explored. This thesis aims to investigate the relationship between those accidents and changes in fishing effort control regulations. In the introduction, the fishing effort control regulation is exposed, data of the Spanish fishing fleet structure and its accident rates are presented, and stability criteria dealt with in this work are explained, detailing its relationship with fishing vessel safety. A statistical analysis of the accident rates in the fishing sector in Spain is performed afterwards. The objective is determining whether the set of accidents studied constitute an anomaly or, on the contrary, they are not statistically relevant. Fishing vessels accident rates is analyzed from several fishing vessel databases in Spain. It is concluded that the set of studied accidents is statistically relevant, as the probability of occurrence of the five happenings is extremely low, considering the loss rates in the subsector of the Spanish fishing fleet where the studied vessels are fitted within. From this point the thesis focuses in comparing the vessels lost and the vessels that were decommissioned to build them as required by the fishing effort control regulation; these vessels will be referred to as “predecessors” of the sunk vessels. The main dimensions between each lost vessel and her predecessor are compared, leading to the conclusion that the lost vessels share design characteristics which are sensibly different from the predecessors, and linking these design characteristics with the requirements imposed by the new fishing control effort regulations. This allows establishing a relationship between the accidents and this regulation change. Then the margin in fulfilling the regulatory stability criteria among the vessels is compared, resulting, in four of the five cases, that predecessors meet the stability criteria with greater clearance than the sunk vessels. The results obtained at this point would establish a relationship between the change of fishing effort control regulation and the stability of vessels. The five lost vessels complied with the stability criteria in force, so the relation between these criteria and safety is put in question. Consequently, the comparison among vessels is extended to other fields related to safety and stability: • Motions onboard (operability), and • Specific stability criteria in rough weather The operability study shows that the lost vessels had in general greater operability than their predecessors, just the opposite as when comparing stability criteria. Finally, performance under specific rough weather stability criteria is checked. The criteria studied are the IMO Weather Criterion, and one of the 2nd generation stability criteria under development by IMO considering in this last case the presence of water on deck, which is an original contribution by the author. The observed trends in these two cases are opposite, allowing to put into question the last criterion validity without an exhaustive control of its formulation parameters; indicating that further research might be necessary before using it for regulatory purposes. The analysis of this set of results leads to some conclusions when comparing both groups of fishing vessels. While the results obtained are not conclusive in the sense that the entry into force of a new fishing effort control in 1998 caused a generalized safety reduction in whole sectors of the Spanish fishing fleet, it can be concluded that it opened the door for some vessel designs resulting with precarious stability. This evidences that the relation between safety and stability criteria is not univocal, so stability criteria needs to evolve for adapting to new fishing vessels designs so their safety is still guaranteed. It is also concluded that stability is a transversal aspect to ship design and operability, implying that any legislative reform affecting ship design or operating modes should be subjected to assessing by the authorities responsible for marine safety before being adopted.

Evaluación de las Consecuencias de la Nueva Regulación de la OMI sobre Combustibles Marinos

El 10 de octubre de 2008 la Organización Marítima Internacional (OMI) firmó una modificación al Anexo VI del convenio MARPOL 73/78, por la que estableció una reducción progresiva de las emisiones de óxidos de azufre (SOx) procedentes de los buques, una reducción adicional de las emisiones de óxidos de nitrógeno (NOx), así como límites en las emisiones de dióxido de Carbono (CO2) procedentes de los motores marinos y causantes de problemas medioambientales como la lluvia ácida y efecto invernadero. Centrándonos en los límites sobre las emisiones de azufre, a partir del 1 de enero de 2015 esta normativa obliga a todos los buques que naveguen por zonas controladas, llamadas Emission Control Area (ECA), a consumir combustibles con un contenido de azufre menor al 0,1%. A partir del 1 de enero del año 2020, o bien del año 2025, si la OMI decide retrasar su inicio, los buques deberán consumir combustibles con un contenido de azufre menor al 0,5%. De igual forma que antes, el contenido deberá ser rebajado al 0,1%S, si navegan por el interior de zonas ECA. Por su parte, la Unión Europea ha ido más allá que la OMI, adelantando al año 2020 la aplicación de los límites más estrictos de la ley MARPOL sobre las aguas de su zona económica exclusiva. Para ello, el 21 de noviembre de 2013 firmó la Directiva 2012 / 33 / EU como adenda a la Directiva de 1999. Tengamos presente que la finalidad de estas nuevas leyes es la mejora de la salud pública y el medioambiente, produciendo beneficios sociales, en forma de reducción de enfermedades, sobre todo de tipo respiratorio, a la vez que se reduce la lluvia ácida y sus nefastas consecuencias. La primera pregunta que surge es ¿cuál es el combustible actual de los buques y cuál será el que tengan que consumir para cumplir con esta Regulación? Pues bien, los grandes buques de navegación internacional consumen hoy en día fuel oil con un nivel de azufre de 3,5%. ¿Existen fueles con un nivel de azufre de 0,5%S? Como hemos concluido en el capítulo 4, para las empresas petroleras, la producción de fuel oil como combustible marino es tratada como un subproducto en su cesta de productos refinados por cada barril de Brent, ya que la demanda de fuel respecto a otros productos está bajando y además, el margen de beneficio que obtienen por la venta de otros productos petrolíferos es mayor que con el fuel. Así, podemos decir que las empresas petroleras no están interesadas en invertir en sus refinerías para producir estos fueles con menor contenido de azufre. Es más, en el caso de que alguna compañía decidiese invertir en producir un fuel de 0,5%S, su precio debería ser muy similar al del gasóleo para poder recuperar las inversiones empleadas. Por lo tanto, el único combustible que actualmente cumple con los nuevos niveles impuestos por la OMI es el gasóleo, con un precio que durante el año 2014 estuvo a una media de 307 USD/ton más alto que el actual fuel oil. Este mayor precio de compra de combustible impactará directamente sobre el coste del trasporte marítimo. La entrada en vigor de las anteriores normativas está suponiendo un reto para todo el sector marítimo. Ante esta realidad, se plantean diferentes alternativas con diferentes implicaciones técnicas, operativas y financieras. En la actualidad, son tres las alternativas con mayor aceptación en el sector. La primera alternativa consiste en “no hacer nada” y simplemente cambiar el tipo de combustible de los grandes buques de fuel oil a gasóleo. Las segunda alternativa es la instalación de un equipo scrubber, que permitiría continuar con el consumo de fuel oil, limpiando sus gases de combustión antes de salir a la atmósfera. Y, por último, la tercera alternativa consiste en el uso de Gas Natural Licuado (GNL) como combustible, con un precio inferior al del gasóleo. Sin embargo, aún existen importantes incertidumbres sobre la evolución futura de precios, operación y mantenimiento de las nuevas tecnologías, inversiones necesarias, disponibilidad de infraestructura portuaria e incluso el desarrollo futuro de la propia normativa internacional. Estas dudas hacen que ninguna de estas tres alternativas sea unánime en el sector. En esta tesis, tras exponer en el capítulo 3 la regulación aplicable al sector, hemos investigado sus consecuencias. Para ello, hemos examinado en el capítulo 4 si existen en la actualidad combustibles marinos que cumplan con los nuevos límites de azufre o en su defecto, cuál sería el precio de los nuevos combustibles. Partimos en el capítulo 5 de la hipótesis de que todos los buques cambian su consumo de fuel oil a gasóleo para cumplir con dicha normativa, calculamos el incremento de demanda de gasóleo que se produciría y analizamos las consecuencias que este hecho tendría sobre la producción de gasóleos en el Mediterráneo. Adicionalmente, calculamos el impacto económico que dicho incremento de coste producirá sobre sector exterior de España. Para ello, empleamos como base de datos el sistema de control de tráfico marítimo Authomatic Identification System (AIS) para luego analizar los datos de todos los buques que han hecho escala en algún puerto español, para así calcular el extra coste anual por el consumo de gasóleo que sufrirá el transporte marítimo para mover todas las importaciones y exportaciones de España. Por último, en el capítulo 6, examinamos y comparamos las otras dos alternativas al consumo de gasóleo -scrubbers y propulsión con GNL como combustible- y, finalmente, analizamos en el capítulo 7, la viabilidad de las inversiones en estas dos tecnologías para cumplir con la regulación. En el capítulo 5 explicamos los numerosos métodos que existen para calcular la demanda de combustible de un buque. La metodología seguida para su cálculo será del tipo bottom-up, que está basada en la agregación de la actividad y las características de cada tipo de buque. El resultado está basado en la potencia instalada de cada buque, porcentaje de carga del motor y su consumo específico. Para ello, analizamos el número de buques que navegan por el Mediterráneo a lo largo de un año mediante el sistema AIS, realizando “fotos” del tráfico marítimo en el Mediterráneo y reportando todos los buques en navegación en días aleatorios a lo largo de todo el año 2014. Por último, y con los datos anteriores, calculamos la demanda potencial de gasóleo en el Mediterráneo. Si no se hace nada y los buques comienzan a consumir gasóleo como combustible principal, en vez del actual fuel oil para cumplir con la regulación, la demanda de gasoil en el Mediterráneo aumentará en 12,12 MTA (Millones de Toneladas Anuales) a partir del año 2020. Esto supone alrededor de 3.720 millones de dólares anuales por el incremento del gasto de combustible tomando como referencia el precio medio de los combustibles marinos durante el año 2014. El anterior incremento de demanda en el Mediterráneo supondría el 43% del total de la demanda de gasóleos en España en el año 2013, incluyendo gasóleos de automoción, biodiesel y gasóleos marinos y el 3,2% del consumo europeo de destilados medios durante el año 2014. ¿Podrá la oferta del mercado europeo asumir este incremento de demanda de gasóleos? Europa siempre ha sido excedentaria en gasolina y deficitaria en destilados medios. En el año 2009, Europa tuvo que importar 4,8 MTA de Norte América y 22,1 MTA de Asia. Por lo que, este aumento de demanda sobre la ya limitada capacidad de refino de destilados medios en Europa incrementará las importaciones y producirá también aumentos en los precios, sobre todo del mercado del gasóleo. El sector sobre el que más impactará el incremento de demanda de gasóleo será el de los cruceros que navegan por el Mediterráneo, pues consumirán un 30,4% de la demanda de combustible de toda flota mundial de cruceros, lo que supone un aumento en su gasto de combustible de 386 millones de USD anuales. En el caso de los RoRos, consumirían un 23,6% de la demanda de la flota mundial de este tipo de buque, con un aumento anual de 171 millones de USD sobre su gasto de combustible anterior. El mayor incremento de coste lo sufrirán los portacontenedores, con 1.168 millones de USD anuales sobre su gasto actual. Sin embargo, su consumo en el Mediterráneo representa sólo el 5,3% del consumo mundial de combustible de este tipo de buques. Estos números plantean la incertidumbre de si semejante aumento de gasto en buques RoRo hará que el transporte marítimo de corta distancia en general pierda competitividad sobre otros medios de transporte alternativos en determinadas rutas. De manera que, parte del volumen de mercancías que actualmente transportan los buques se podría trasladar a la carretera, con los inconvenientes medioambientales y operativos, que esto produciría. En el caso particular de España, el extra coste por el consumo de gasóleo de todos los buques con escala en algún puerto español en el año 2013 se cifra en 1.717 millones de EUR anuales, según demostramos en la última parte del capítulo 5. Para realizar este cálculo hemos analizado con el sistema AIS a todos los buques que han tenido escala en algún puerto español y los hemos clasificado por distancia navegada, tipo de buque y potencia. Este encarecimiento del transporte marítimo será trasladado al sector exterior español, lo cual producirá un aumento del coste de las importaciones y exportaciones por mar en un país muy expuesto, pues el 75,61% del total de las importaciones y el 53,64% del total de las exportaciones se han hecho por vía marítima. Las tres industrias que se verán más afectadas son aquellas cuyo valor de mercancía es inferior respecto a su coste de transporte. Para ellas los aumentos del coste sobre el total del valor de cada mercancía serán de un 2,94% para la madera y corcho, un 2,14% para los productos minerales y un 1,93% para las manufacturas de piedra, cemento, cerámica y vidrio. Las mercancías que entren o salgan por los dos archipiélagos españoles de Canarias y Baleares serán las que se verán más impactadas por el extra coste del transporte marítimo, ya que son los puertos más alejados de otros puertos principales y, por tanto, con más distancia de navegación. Sin embargo, esta no es la única alternativa al cumplimiento de la nueva regulación. De la lectura del capítulo 6 concluimos que las tecnologías de equipos scrubbers y de propulsión con GNL permitirán al buque consumir combustibles más baratos al gasoil, a cambio de una inversión en estas tecnologías. ¿Serán los ahorros producidos por estas nuevas tecnologías suficientes para justificar su inversión? Para contestar la anterior pregunta, en el capítulo 7 hemos comparado las tres alternativas y hemos calculado tanto los costes de inversión como los gastos operativos correspondientes a equipos scrubbers o propulsión con GNL para una selección de 53 categorías de buques. La inversión en equipos scrubbers es más conveniente para buques grandes, con navegación no regular. Sin embargo, para buques de tamaño menor y navegación regular por puertos con buena infraestructura de suministro de GNL, la inversión en una propulsión con GNL como combustible será la más adecuada. En el caso de un tiempo de navegación del 100% dentro de zonas ECA y bajo el escenario de precios visto durante el año 2014, los proyectos con mejor plazo de recuperación de la inversión en equipos scrubbers son para los cruceros de gran tamaño (100.000 tons. GT), para los que se recupera la inversión en 0,62 años, los grandes portacontenedores de más de 8.000 TEUs con 0,64 años de recuperación y entre 5.000-8.000 TEUs con 0,71 años de recuperación y, por último, los grandes petroleros de más de 200.000 tons. de peso muerto donde tenemos un plazo de recuperación de 0,82 años. La inversión en scrubbers para buques pequeños, por el contrario, tarda más tiempo en recuperarse llegando a más de 5 años en petroleros y quimiqueros de menos de 5.000 toneladas de peso muerto. En el caso de una posible inversión en propulsión con GNL, las categorías de buques donde la inversión en GNL es más favorable y recuperable en menor tiempo son las más pequeñas, como ferris, cruceros o RoRos. Tomamos ahora el caso particular de un buque de productos limpios de 38.500 toneladas de peso muerto ya construido y nos planteamos la viabilidad de la inversión en la instalación de un equipo scrubber o bien, el cambio a una propulsión por GNL a partir del año 2015. Se comprueba que las dos variables que más impactan sobre la conveniencia de la inversión son el tiempo de navegación del buque dentro de zonas de emisiones controladas (ECA) y el escenario futuro de precios del MGO, HSFO y GNL. Para realizar este análisis hemos estudiado cada inversión, calculando una batería de condiciones de mérito como el payback, TIR, VAN y la evolución de la tesorería del inversor. Posteriormente, hemos calculado las condiciones de contorno mínimas de este buque en concreto para asegurar una inversión no sólo aceptable, sino además conveniente para el naviero inversor. En el entorno de precios del 2014 -con un diferencial entre fuel y gasóleo de 264,35 USD/ton- si el buque pasa más de un 56% de su tiempo de navegación en zonas ECA, conseguirá una rentabilidad de la inversión para inversores (TIR) en el equipo scrubber que será igual o superior al 9,6%, valor tomado como coste de oportunidad. Para el caso de inversión en GNL, en el entorno de precios del año 2014 -con un diferencial entre GNL y gasóleo de 353,8 USD/ton FOE- si el buque pasa más de un 64,8 % de su tiempo de navegación en zonas ECA, conseguirá una rentabilidad de la inversión para inversores (TIR) que será igual o superior al 9,6%, valor del coste de oportunidad. Para un tiempo en zona ECA estimado de un 60%, la rentabilidad de la inversión (TIR) en scrubbers para los inversores será igual o superior al 9,6%, el coste de oportunidad requerido por el inversor, para valores del diferencial de precio entre los dos combustibles alternativos, gasóleo (MGO) y fuel oil (HSFO) a partir de 244,73 USD/ton. En el caso de una inversión en propulsión GNL se requeriría un diferencial de precio entre MGO y GNL de 382,3 USD/ton FOE o superior. Así, para un buque de productos limpios de 38.500 DWT, la inversión en una reconversión para instalar un equipo scrubber es más conveniente que la de GNL, pues alcanza rentabilidades de la inversión (TIR) para inversores del 12,77%, frente a un 6,81% en el caso de invertir en GNL. Para ambos cálculos se ha tomado un buque que navegue un 60% de su tiempo por zona ECA y un escenario de precios medios del año 2014 para el combustible. Po otro lado, las inversiones en estas tecnologías a partir del año 2025 para nuevas construcciones son en ambos casos convenientes. El naviero deberá prestar especial atención aquí a las características propias de su buque y tipo de navegación, así como a la infraestructura de suministros y vertidos en los puertos donde vaya a operar usualmente. Si bien, no se ha estudiado en profundidad en esta tesis, no olvidemos que el sector marítimo debe cumplir además con las otras dos limitaciones que la regulación de la OMI establece sobre las emisiones de óxidos de Nitrógeno (NOx) y Carbono (CO2) y que sin duda, requerirán adicionales inversiones en diversos equipos. De manera que, si bien las consecuencias del consumo de gasóleo como alternativa al cumplimiento de la Regulación MARPOL son ciertamente preocupantes, existen alternativas al uso del gasóleo, con un aumento sobre el coste del transporte marítimo menor y manteniendo los beneficios sociales que pretende dicha ley. En efecto, como hemos demostrado, las opciones que se plantean como más rentables desde el punto de vista financiero son el consumo de GNL en los buques pequeños y de línea regular (cruceros, ferries, RoRos), y la instalación de scrubbers para el resto de buques de grandes dimensiones. Pero, por desgracia, estas inversiones no llegan a hacerse realidad por el elevado grado de incertidumbre asociado a estos dos mercados, que aumenta el riesgo empresarial, tanto de navieros como de suministradores de estas nuevas tecnologías. Observamos así una gran reticencia del sector privado a decidirse por estas dos alternativas. Este elevado nivel de riesgo sólo puede reducirse fomentando el esfuerzo conjunto del sector público y privado para superar estas barreras de entrada del mercado de scrubbers y GNL, que lograrían reducir las externalidades medioambientales de las emisiones sin restar competitividad al transporte marítimo. Creemos así, que los mismos organismos que aprobaron dicha ley deben ayudar al sector naviero a afrontar las inversiones en dichas tecnologías, así como a impulsar su investigación y promover la creación de una infraestructura portuaria adaptada a suministros de GNL y a descargas de vertidos procedentes de los equipos scrubber. Deberían además, prestar especial atención sobre las ayudas al sector de corta distancia para evitar que pierda competitividad frente a otros medios de transporte por el cumplimiento de esta normativa. Actualmente existen varios programas europeos de incentivos, como TEN-T o Marco Polo, pero no los consideramos suficientes. Por otro lado, la Organización Marítima Internacional debe confirmar cuanto antes si retrasa o no al 2025 la nueva bajada del nivel de azufre en combustibles. De esta manera, se eliminaría la gran incertidumbre temporal que actualmente tienen tanto navieros, como empresas petroleras y puertos para iniciar sus futuras inversiones y poder estudiar la viabilidad de cada alternativa de forma individual. ABSTRACT On 10 October 2008 the International Maritime Organization (IMO) signed an amendment to Annex VI of the MARPOL 73/78 convention establishing a gradual reduction in sulphur oxide (SOx) emissions from ships, and an additional reduction in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from marine engines which cause environmental problems such as acid rain and the greenhouse effect. According to this regulation, from 1 January 2015, ships travelling in an Emission Control Area (ECA) must use fuels with a sulphur content of less than 0.1%. From 1 January 2020, or alternatively from 2025 if the IMO should decide to delay its introduction, all ships must use fuels with a sulphur content of less than 0.5%. As before, this content will be 0.1%S for voyages within ECAs. Meanwhile, the European Union has gone further than the IMO, and will apply the strictest limits of the MARPOL directives in the waters of its exclusive economic zone from 2020. To this end, Directive 2012/33/EU was issued on 21 November 2013 as an addendum to the 1999 Directive. These laws are intended to improve public health and the environment, benefiting society by reducing disease, particularly respiratory problems. The first question which arises is: what fuel do ships currently use, and what fuel will they have to use to comply with the Convention? Today, large international shipping vessels consume fuel oil with a sulphur level of 3.5%. Do fuel oils exist with a sulphur level of 0.5%S? As we conclude in Chapter 4, oil companies regard marine fuel oil as a by-product of refining Brent to produce their basket of products, as the demand for fuel oil is declining in comparison to other products, and the profit margin on the sale of other petroleum products is higher. Thus, oil companies are not interested in investing in their refineries to produce low-sulphur fuel oils, and if a company should decide to invest in producing a 0.5%S fuel oil, its price would have to be very similar to that of marine gas oil in order to recoup the investment. Therefore, the only fuel which presently complies with the new levels required by the IMO is marine gas oil, which was priced on average 307 USD/tonne higher than current fuel oils during 2014. This higher purchasing price for fuel will have a direct impact on the cost of maritime transport. The entry into force of the above directive presents a challenge for the entire maritime sector. There are various alternative approaches to this situation, with different technical, operational and financial implications. At present three options are the most widespread in the sector. The first option consists of “doing nothing” and simply switching from fuel oil to marine gas oil in large ships. The second option is installing a scrubber system, which would enable ships to continue consuming fuel oil, cleaning the combustion gases before they are released to the atmosphere. And finally, the third option is using Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which is priced lower than marine gas oil, as a fuel. However, there is still significant uncertainty on future variations in prices, the operation and maintenance of the new technologies, the investments required, the availability of port infrastructure and even future developments in the international regulations themselves. These uncertainties mean that none of these three alternatives has been unanimously accepted by the sector. In this Thesis, after discussing all the regulations applicable to the sector in Chapter 3, we investigate their consequences. In Chapter 4 we examine whether there are currently any marine fuels on the market which meet the new sulphur limits, and if not, how much new fuels would cost. In Chapter 5, based on the hypothesis that all ships will switch from fuel oil to marine gas oil to comply with the regulations, we calculate the increase in demand for marine gas oil this would lead to, and analyse the consequences this would have on marine gas oil production in the Mediterranean. We also calculate the economic impact such a cost increase would have on Spain's external sector. To do this, we also use the Automatic Identification System (AIS) system to analyse the data of every ship stopping in any Spanish port, in order to calculate the extra cost of using marine gas oil in maritime transport for all Spain's imports and exports. Finally, in Chapter 6, we examine and compare the other two alternatives to marine gas oil, scrubbers and LNG, and in Chapter 7 we analyse the viability of investing in these two technologies in order to comply with the regulations. In Chapter 5 we explain the many existing methods for calculating a ship's fuel consumption. We use a bottom-up calculation method, based on aggregating the activity and characteristics of each type of vessel. The result is based on the installed engine power of each ship, the engine load percentage and its specific consumption. To do this, we analyse the number of ships travelling in the Mediterranean in the course of one year, using the AIS, a marine traffic monitoring system, to take “snapshots” of marine traffic in the Mediterranean and report all ships at sea on random days throughout 2014. Finally, with the above data, we calculate the potential demand for marine gas oil in the Mediterranean. If nothing else is done and ships begin to use marine gas oil instead of fuel oil in order to comply with the regulation, the demand for marine gas oil in the Mediterranean will increase by 12.12 MTA (Millions Tonnes per Annum) from 2020. This means an increase of around 3.72 billion dollars a year in fuel costs, taking as reference the average price of marine fuels in 2014. Such an increase in demand in the Mediterranean would be equivalent to 43% of the total demand for diesel in Spain in 2013, including automotive diesel fuels, biodiesel and marine gas oils, and 3.2% of European consumption of middle distillates in 2014. Would the European market be able to supply enough to meet this greater demand for diesel? Europe has always had a surplus of gasoline and a deficit of middle distillates. In 2009, Europe had to import 4.8 MTA from North America and 22.1 MTA from Asia. Therefore, this increased demand on Europe's already limited capacity for refining middle distillates would lead to increased imports and higher prices, especially in the diesel market. The sector which would suffer the greatest impact of increased demand for marine gas oil would be Mediterranean cruise ships, which represent 30.4% of the fuel demand of the entire world cruise fleet, meaning their fuel costs would rise by 386 million USD per year. ROROs in the Mediterranean, which represent 23.6% of the demand of the world fleet of this type of ship, would see their fuel costs increase by 171 million USD a year. The greatest cost increase would be among container ships, with an increase on current costs of 1.168 billion USD per year. However, their consumption in the Mediterranean represents only 5.3% of worldwide fuel consumption by container ships. These figures raise the question of whether a cost increase of this size for RORO ships would lead to short-distance marine transport in general becoming less competitive compared to other transport options on certain routes. For example, some of the goods that ships now carry could switch to road transport, with the undesirable effects on the environment and on operations that this would produce. In the particular case of Spain, the extra cost of switching to marine gas oil in all ships stopping at any Spanish port in 2013 would be 1.717 billion EUR per year, as we demonstrate in the last part of Chapter 5. For this calculation, we used the AIS system to analyse all ships which stopped at any Spanish port, classifying them by distance travelled, type of ship and engine power. This rising cost of marine transport would be passed on to the Spanish external sector, increasing the cost of imports and exports by sea in a country which relies heavily on maritime transport, which accounts for 75.61% of Spain's total imports and 53.64% of its total exports. The three industries which would be worst affected are those with goods of lower value relative to transport costs. The increased costs over the total value of each good would be 2.94% for wood and cork, 2.14% for mineral products and 1.93% for manufactured stone, cement, ceramic and glass products. Goods entering via the two Spanish archipelagos, the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands, would suffer the greatest impact from the extra cost of marine transport, as these ports are further away from other major ports and thus the distance travelled is greater. However, this is not the only option for compliance with the new regulations. From our readings in Chapter 6 we conclude that scrubbers and LNG propulsion would enable ships to use cheaper fuels than marine gas oil, in exchange for investing in these technologies. Would the savings gained by these new technologies be enough to justify the investment? To answer this question, in Chapter 7 we compare the three alternatives and calculate both the cost of investment and the operating costs associated with scrubbers or LNG propulsion for a selection of 53 categories of ships. Investing in scrubbers is more advisable for large ships with no fixed runs. However, for smaller ships with regular runs to ports with good LNG supply infrastructure, investing in LNG propulsion would be the best choice. In the case of total transit time within an ECA and the pricing scenario seen in 2014, the best payback periods on investments in scrubbers are for large cruise ships (100,000 gross tonnage), which would recoup their investment in 0.62 years; large container ships, with a 0.64 year payback period for those over 8,000 TEUs and 0.71 years for the 5,000-8,000 TEU category; and finally, large oil tankers over 200,000 deadweight tonnage, which would recoup their investment in 0.82 years. However, investing in scrubbers would have a longer payback period for smaller ships, up to 5 years or more for oil tankers and chemical tankers under 5,000 deadweight tonnage. In the case of LNG propulsion, a possible investment is more favourable and the payback period is shorter for smaller ship classes, such as ferries, cruise ships and ROROs. We now take the case of a ship transporting clean products, already built, with a deadweight tonnage of 38,500, and consider the viability of investing in installing a scrubber or changing to LNG propulsion, starting in 2015. The two variables with the greatest impact on the advisability of the investment are how long the ship is at sea within emission control areas (ECA) and the future price scenario of MGO, HSFO and LNG. For this analysis, we studied each investment, calculating a battery of merit conditions such as the payback period, IRR, NPV and variations in the investors' liquid assets. We then calculated the minimum boundary conditions to ensure the investment was not only acceptable but advisable for the investor shipowner. Thus, for the average price differential of 264.35 USD/tonne between HSFO and MGO during 2014, investors' return on investment (IRR) in scrubbers would be the same as the required opportunity cost of 9.6%, for values of over 56% ship transit time in ECAs. For the case of investing in LNG and the average price differential between MGO and LNG of 353.8 USD/tonne FOE in 2014, the ship must spend 64.8% of its time in ECAs for the investment to be advisable. For an estimated 60% of time in an ECA, the internal rate of return (IRR) for investors equals the required opportunity cost of 9.6%, based on a price difference of 244.73 USD/tonne between the two alternative fuels, marine gas oil (MGO) and fuel oil (HSFO). An investment in LNG propulsion would require a price differential between MGO and LNG of 382.3 USD/tonne FOE. Thus, for a 38,500 DWT ship carrying clean products, investing in retrofitting to install a scrubber is more advisable than converting to LNG, with an internal rate of return (IRR) for investors of 12.77%, compared to 6.81% for investing in LNG. Both calculations were based on a ship which spends 60% of its time at sea in an ECA and a scenario of average 2014 prices. However, for newly-built ships, investments in either of these technologies from 2025 would be advisable. Here, the shipowner must pay particular attention to the specific characteristics of their ship, the type of operation, and the infrastructure for supplying fuel and handling discharges in the ports where it will usually operate. Thus, while the consequences of switching to marine gas oil in order to comply with the MARPOL regulations are certainly alarming, there are alternatives to marine gas oil, with smaller increases in the costs of maritime transport, while maintaining the benefits to society this law is intended to provide. Indeed, as we have demonstrated, the options which appear most favourable from a financial viewpoint are conversion to LNG for small ships and regular runs (cruise ships, ferries, ROROs), and installing scrubbers for large ships. Unfortunately, however, these investments are not being made, due to the high uncertainty associated with these two markets, which increases business risk, both for shipowners and for the providers of these new technologies. This means we are seeing considerable reluctance regarding these two options among the private sector. This high level of risk can be lowered only by encouraging joint efforts by the public and private sectors to overcome these barriers to entry into the market for scrubbers and LNG, which could reduce the environmental externalities of emissions without affecting the competitiveness of marine transport. Our opinion is that the same bodies which approved this law must help the shipping industry invest in these technologies, drive research on them, and promote the creation of a port infrastructure which is adapted to supply LNG and handle the discharges from scrubber systems. At present there are several European incentive programmes, such as TEN-T and Marco Polo, but we do not consider these to be sufficient. For its part, the International Maritime Organization should confirm as soon as possible whether the new lower sulphur levels in fuels will be postponed until 2025. This would eliminate the great uncertainty among shipowners, oil companies and ports regarding the timeline for beginning their future investments and for studying their viability.

Human deafness dystonia syndrome is a mitochondrial disease

The human deafness dystonia syndrome results from the mutation of a protein (DDP) of unknown function. We show now that DDP is a mitochondrial protein and similar to five small proteins (Tim8p, Tim9p, Tim10p, Tim12p, and Tim13p) of the yeast mitochondrial intermembrane space. Tim9p, Tim10p, and Tim12p mediate the import of metabolite transporters from the cytoplasm into the mitochondrial inner membrane and interact structurally and functionally with Tim8p and Tim13p. DDP is most similar to Tim8p. Tim8p exists as a soluble 70-kDa complex with Tim13p and Tim9p, and deletion of Tim8p is synthetically lethal with a conditional mutation in Tim10p. The deafness dystonia syndrome thus is a novel type of mitochondrial disease that probably is caused by a defective mitochondrial protein-import system.

The Gln-Ala repeat transcriptional activator CA150 interacts with huntingtin: Neuropathologic and genetic evidence for a role in Huntington's disease pathogenesis

Huntington's disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative disease caused by polyglutamine expansion in the protein huntingtin (htt). Pathogenesis in HD appears to involve the formation of ubiquitinated neuronal intranuclear inclusions containing N-terminal mutated htt, abnormal protein interactions, and the aggregate sequestration of a variety of proteins (noticeably, transcription factors). To identify novel htt-interacting proteins in a simple model system, we used a yeast two-hybrid screen with a Caenorhabditis elegans activation domain library. We found a predicted WW domain protein (ZK1127.9) that interacts with N-terminal fragments of htt in two-hybrid tests. A human homologue of ZK1127.9 is CA150, a transcriptional coactivator with a N-terminal insertion that contains an imperfect (Gln-Ala)38 tract encoded by a polymorphic repeat DNA. CA150 interacted in vitro with full-length htt from lymphoblastoid cells. The expression of CA150, measured immunohistochemically, was markedly increased in human HD brain tissue compared with normal age-matched human brain tissue, and CA150 showed aggregate formation with partial colocalization to ubiquitin-positive aggregates. In 432 HD patients, the CA150 repeat length explains a small, but statistically significant, amount of the variability in the onset age. Our data suggest that abnormal expression of CA150, mediated by interaction with polyglutamine-expanded htt, may alter transcription and have a role in HD pathogenesis.

Autoimmune response to U1 small nuclear ribonucleoprotein (U1 snRNP) associated with cytomegalovirus infection

The induction of autoantibodies to U1 small nuclear ribonucleoprotein (U1 snRNP) complexes is not well understood. We present evidence that healthy individuals with cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection have an increased frequency and quantity of antibodies to ribonucleoprotein, directed primarily against the U1-70k protein. A significant association between the presence of antibodies to CMV and antibodies to the total RNP targeted by the immune response to the spliceosome (to both the Sm and RNP; Sm/RNP) was found for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) but not those with mixed connective-tissue disease. CMV thus may play a role in inducing autoimmune responses in a subset of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.