Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

Genetic and environmental components of phenotypic variation in immune response and body size of a colonial bird, Delichon urbica (the house martin).

Directional selection for parasite resistance is often intense in highly social host species. Using a partial cross-fostering experiment we studied environmental and genetic variation in immune response and morphology in a highly colonial bird species, the house martin (Delichon urbica). We manipulated intensity of infestation of house martin nests by the haematophagous parasitic house martin bug Oeciacus hirundinis either by spraying nests with a weak pesticide or by inoculating them with 50 bugs. Parasitism significantly affected tarsus length, T cell response, immunoglobulin and leucocyte concentrations. We found evidence of strong environmental effects on nestling body mass, body condition, wing length and tarsus length, and evidence of significant additive genetic variance for wing length and haematocrit. We found significant environmental variance, but no significant additive genetic variance in immune response parameters such as T cell response to the antigenic phytohemagglutinin, immunoglobulins, and relative and absolute numbers of leucocytes. Environmental variances were generally greater than additive genetic variances, and the low heritabilities of phenotypic traits were mainly a consequence of large environmental variances and small additive genetic variances. Hence, highly social bird species such as the house martin, which are subject to intense selection by parasites, have a limited scope for immediate microevolutionary response to selection because of low heritabilities, but also a limited scope for long-term response to selection because evolvability as indicated by small additive genetic coefficients of variation is weak.

Managing the size of the Olympic Games

The last two decades have seen dramatic increases in the size and scope of the Summer Olympic Games. In many ways, London 2012 reached even higher summits than the Beijing Games in 2008. This growth is a major challenge for the Olympics and its future organizers, as it is making the Games increasingly difficult to stage and has greatly reduced the number of cities capable of hosting them. This study shows how various participation and organization indicators have expanded over six Olympiads, from Barcelona 1992 to London 2012, and examines the reasons for this growth. It suggests ways of reducing the size of the Summer Olympic Games in order to make them more manageable and to encourage candidatures from smaller cities and countries.

Strategies of emotion regulation in adolescents and young adults with substance dependence or eating disorders

Some authors argue that both substance dependence and eating disorders should be considered as dependent behaviours. Similarities and differences between these disorders, however, remain unclear. This study compares processes of emotion regulation in adolescents and young adults (15 to 25 years old) with substance dependence (SD) or eating disorders (ED). One hundred and thirteen SD, 50 ED and 86 non-clinical subjects (NC), recruited in four French and Swiss locations, completed a self-report questionnaire of emotion regulation strategies. This questionnaire addresses the subjects' relationships, concerning past and present family, and refers to Main's (1990) concept of primary strategy (balanced activation and deactivation of attachment behaviours), and of secondary strategies (hyperactivation or excessive deactivation of the attachment system). Participants were also questioned in structured interviews, about life events and DSM-IV classification criteria. SD reported more adverse events than ED and NC. SD and ED reported using fewer primary strategies than NC, and SD had secondary strategies that were different from those of ED. Patients with eating disorders reported more hyperactivation, and SD reported more deactivation of the attachment system. It is hypothesized that while subjects with SD and ED have in common poorly regulated strategies, they differ in the way they process emotion or relationship-related information.

Larval biometry of Simulium rubrithorax (Diptera: Simuliidae) and size comparison between populations in the states of Minas Gerais and Roraima, Brazil

The number of larval instars of Simulium (Hemicnetha) rubrithorax Lutz (Diptera: Nematocera) was determined using the lateral length of the head capsule. In this study 1,035 larvae, of different sizes, were measured (639 from the state of Roraima and 396 from the state of Minas Gerais). A frequency distribution analysis was carried out on the measurements of the lateral length of the head capsule to determine the number of larval instars. The limits of each instar were defined by the lower frequency of the measurements falling in a range of values, by the presence of the "egg burster" that characterizes the first larval instar, and by the developmental stage of the gill histoblast. The determination of the instar number was tested using a Student's t-test (p < 0.05), the Dyar rule and the Crosby growth rule. The results indicate the existence of 7 larval instars for this species, although this result was not in accordance to the Crosby rule. Last-instar larvae from two widely separated geographical populations (Roraima and Minas Gerais), collected in habitats with different water temperature were compared and no differences (p > 0.05) were observed between them.

Substitution rates at neutral genes depend on population size under fluctuating demography and overlapping generations.

It is widely accepted that the rate of evolution (substitution rate) at neutral genes is unaffected by population size fluctuations. This result has implications for the analysis of genetic data in population genetics and phylogenetics, and provides, in particular, a justification for the concept of the molecular clock. Here, we show that the substitution rate at neutral genes does depend on population size fluctuations in the presence of overlapping generations. As both population size fluctuations and overlapping generations are expected to be the norm rather than the exception in natural populations, this observation may be relevant for understanding variation in substitution rates within and between lineages.

Variant within the promoter region of the CHRNA3 gene associated with FTN dependence is not related to self-reported willingness to quit smoking.

INTRODUCTION: Common variation in the CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 gene region is robustly associated with smoking quantity. Conversely, the association between one of the most significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; rs1051730 within the CHRNA3 gene) with perceived difficulty or willingness to quit smoking among current smokers is unknown. METHODS: Cross-sectional study including current smokers, 502 women, and 552 men. Heaviness of smoking index (HSI), difficulty, attempting, and intention to quit smoking were assessed by questionnaire. RESULTS: The rs1051730 SNP was associated with increased HSI (age, gender, and education-adjusted mean ± SE: 2.6 ± 0.1, 2.2 ± 0.1, and 2.0 ± 0.1 for AA, AG, and GG genotypes, respectively, p < .01). Multivariate logistic regression adjusting for gender, age, education, leisure-time physical activity, and personal history of cardiovascular or lung disease showed rs1051730 to be associated with higher smoking dependence (odds ratio [OR] and 95% CI for each additional A-allele: 1.38 [1.11-1.72] for smoking more than 20 cigarette equivalents/day; 1.31 [1.00-1.71] for an HSI ≥5 and 1.32 [1.05-1.65] for smoking 5 min after waking up) and borderline associated with difficulty to quit (OR = 1.29 [0.98-1.70]), but this relationship was no longer significant after adjusting for nicotine dependence. Also, no relationship was found with willingness (OR = 1.03 [0.85-1.26]), attempt (OR = 1.00 [0.83-1.20]), or preparation (OR = 0.95 [0.38-2.38]) to quit. Similar findings were obtained for other SNPs, but their effect on nicotine dependence was no longer significant after adjusting for rs1051730. Conclusions: These data confirm the effect of rs1051730 on nicotine dependence but failed to find any relationship with difficulty, willingness, and motivation to quit.

What is a serving size: A guide for pre-schools

This guide offers practical help to all those providing food for pre-school age children. It is a pictorial manual giving real life serving sizes to guide care-givers, parents and guardians on suitable size servings. This booklet also provides sound advice on family-style eating habits, the introduction of new foods and the environment which nurtures healthy eating habits for life. Establishing good lifestyle habits, including positive attitudes and behaviours around food is one of the key cornerstones to shaping future health. This starts during the pre-school years when children grow rapidly and begin to learn about the environment around them. Providing an environment that supports healthy eating both at home and at school is important. It is well recognised that gauging portion sizes for young children can besomewhat difficult; they need to be adequate without being excessive.

Effects of brood size manipulation and common origin on phenotype and telomere length in nestling collared flycatchers.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is accumulating that telomere length is a good predictor of life expectancy, especially early in life, thus calling for determining the factors that affect telomere length at this stage. Here, we investigated the relative influence of early growth conditions and origin (genetics and early maternal effects) on telomere length of collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) at fledging. We experimentally transferred hatchlings among brood triplets to create reduced, control (i.e. unchanged final nestling number) and enlarged broods. RESULTS: Although our treatment significantly affected body mass at fledging, we found no evidence that increased sibling competition affected nestling tarsus length and telomere length. However, mixed models showed that brood triplets explained a significant part of the variance in body mass (18%) and telomere length (19%), but not tarsus length (13%), emphasizing that unmanipulated early environmental factors influenced telomere length. These models also revealed low, but significant, heritability of telomere length (h(2) = 0.09). For comparison, the heritability of nestling body mass and tarsus length was 0.36 and 0.39, respectively, which was in the range of previously published estimates for those two traits in this species. CONCLUSION: Those findings in a wild bird population demonstrate that telomere length at the end of the growth period is weakly, but significantly, determined by genetic and/or maternal factors taking place before hatching. However, we found no evidence that the brood size manipulation experiment, and by extension the early growth conditions, influenced nestling telomere length. The weak heritability of telomere length suggests a close association with fitness in natural populations.

The meaning of dependence and independence of older people with a disability in Ireland

The paper presents the findings of a research study carried out in Ireland in 2006 (Murphy et al., 2007) which explored the meaning of dependence and independence for older people with a disability. The research adopted a grounded theory approach; purposive sampling was used initially with some relational sampling towards the latter interviews. The sample was comprised of 143 older people with one of six disabilities: stroke (n=20), arthritis (20), depression (20), sensory disability (20), a learning disability (24), and dementia (18). All participants lived at home, some participants required high levels of help in activities of living while others were mostly independent. An interview schedule was used to guide interviews, all of which were tape recorded and transcribed. Data was collected on levels of dependence and independence using the Katz scale. Participants recorded high levels of independence in relation to transferring (93%), toileting (92%), dressing (87%), continence (87%) and feeding (98%). The main area of dependence where participants required assistance from others was with bathing (77%). The constant comparative technique was used to analyze qualitative data. The findings of the study would suggest that participants personal definition of their independence or dependence shifted relative to others and/or improvement or worsening of their capacity People were aware of the difference between independence and dependence, but these two concepts were not always perceived as opposites. It was possible to be independent and dependent at the same time. People valued being able to do things for themselves, accepted help when necessary but wanted to reciprocate when possible. Participants used varied coping strategies to regain and retain control of their lives. Strategies to promote older peoples independence and self esteem will be explored in this paper.

The Size of the Problem: NAO Report - Tackling Obesity in England

Powerpoint presentation by Rob Pridequx from the National Audit office

Coevolution of adaptive technology, maladaptive culture and population size in a producer-scrounger game.

Technology (i.e. tools, methods of cultivation and domestication, systems of construction and appropriation, machines) has increased the vital rates of humans, and is one of the defining features of the transition from Malthusian ecological stagnation to a potentially perpetual rising population growth. Maladaptations, on the other hand, encompass behaviours, customs and practices that decrease the vital rates of individuals. Technology and maladaptations are part of the total stock of culture carried by the individuals in a population. Here, we develop a quantitative model for the coevolution of cumulative adaptive technology and maladaptive culture in a 'producer-scrounger' game, which can also usefully be interpreted as an 'individual-social' learner interaction. Producers (individual learners) are assumed to invent new adaptations and maladaptations by trial-and-error learning, insight or deduction, and they pay the cost of innovation. Scroungers (social learners) are assumed to copy or imitate (cultural transmission) both the adaptations and maladaptations generated by producers. We show that the coevolutionary dynamics of producers and scroungers in the presence of cultural transmission can have a variety of effects on population carrying capacity. From stable polymorphism, where scroungers bring an advantage to the population (increase in carrying capacity), to periodic cycling, where scroungers decrease carrying capacity, we find that selection-driven cultural innovation and transmission may send a population on the path of indefinite growth or to extinction.

Genome size rather than content might affect call properties in toads of three ploidy levels (Anura: Bufonidae: Bufo viridis subgroup).

In vertebrates, genome size has been shown to correlate with nuclear and cell sizes, and influences phenotypic features, such as brain complexity. In three different anuran families, advertisement calls of polyploids exhibit longer notes and intervals than diploids, and difference in cellular dimensions have been hypothesized to cause these modifications. We investigated this phenomenon in green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup) of three ploidy levels, in a different call type (release calls) that may evolve independently from advertisement calls, examining 1205 calls, from ten species, subspecies, and hybrid forms. Significant differences between pulse rates of six diploid and four polyploid (3n, 4n) green toad forms across a range of temperatures from 7 to 27 °C were found. Laboratory data supported differences in pulse rates of triploids vs. tetraploids, but failed to reach significance when including field recordings. This study supports the idea that genome size, irrespective of call type, phylogenetic context, and geographical background, might affect call properties in anurans and suggests a common principle governing this relationship. The nuclear-cell size ratio, affected by genome size, seems the most plausible explanation. However, we cannot rule out hypotheses under which call-influencing genes from an unexamined diploid ancestral species might also affect call properties in the hybrid-origin polyploids.