Contributions to trajectory prediction theory and its application to arrival management for air traffic control

La gestión del tráfico aéreo (Air Traffic Management, ATM) está experimentando un cambio de paradigma hacia las denominadas operaciones basadas trayectoria. Bajo dicho paradigma se modifica el papel de los controladores de tráfico aéreo desde una operativa basada su intervención táctica continuada hacia una labor de supervisión a más largo plazo. Esto se apoya en la creciente confianza en las soluciones aportadas por las herramientas automatizadas de soporte a la decisión más modernas. Para dar soporte a este concepto, se precisa una importante inversión para el desarrollo, junto con la adquisición de nuevos equipos en tierra y embarcados, que permitan la sincronización precisa de la visión de la trayectoria, basada en el intercambio de información entre ambos actores. Durante los últimos 30 a 40 años las aerolíneas han generado uno de los menores retornos de la inversión de entre todas las industrias. Sin beneficios tangibles, la industria aérea tiene dificultades para atraer el capital requerido para su modernización, lo que retrasa la implantación de dichas mejoras. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo responder a la pregunta de si las capacidades actualmente instaladas en las aeronaves comerciales se pueden aplicar para lograr la sincronización de la trayectoria con el nivel de calidad requerido. Además, se analiza en ella si, conjuntamente con mejoras en las herramientas de predicción trayectorias instaladas en tierra en para facilitar la gestión de las arribadas, dichas capacidades permiten obtener los beneficios esperados en el marco de las operaciones basadas en trayectoria. Esto podría proporcionar un incentivo para futuras actualizaciones de la aviónica que podrían llevar a mejoras adicionales. El concepto operacional propuesto en esta tesis tiene como objetivo permitir que los aviones sean pilotados de una manera consistente con las técnicas actuales de vuelo optimizado. Se permite a las aeronaves que desciendan en el denominado “modo de ángulo de descenso gestionado” (path-managed mode), que es el preferido por la mayoría de las compañías aéreas, debido a que conlleva un reducido consumo de combustible. El problema de este modo es que en él no se controla de forma activa el tiempo de llegada al punto de interés. En nuestro concepto operacional, la incertidumbre temporal se gestiona en mediante de la medición del tiempo en puntos estratégicamente escogidos a lo largo de la trayectoria de la aeronave, y permitiendo la modificación por el control de tierra de la velocidad de la aeronave. Aunque la base del concepto es la gestión de las ordenes de velocidad que se proporcionan al piloto, para ser capaces de operar con los niveles de equipamiento típicos actualmente, dicho concepto también constituye un marco en el que la aviónica más avanzada (por ejemplo, que permita el control por el FMS del tiempo de llegada) puede integrarse de forma natural, una vez que esta tecnología este instalada. Además de gestionar la incertidumbre temporal a través de la medición en múltiples puntos, se intenta reducir dicha incertidumbre al mínimo mediante la mejora de las herramienta de predicción de la trayectoria en tierra. En esta tesis se presenta una novedosa descomposición del proceso de predicción de trayectorias en dos etapas. Dicha descomposición permite integrar adecuadamente los datos de la trayectoria de referencia calculada por el Flight Management System (FMS), disponibles usando Futuro Sistema de Navegación Aérea (FANS), en el sistema de predicción de trayectorias en tierra. FANS es un equipo presente en los aviones comerciales de fuselaje ancho actualmente en la producción, e incluso algunos aviones de fuselaje estrecho pueden tener instalada avionica FANS. Además de informar automáticamente de la posición de la aeronave, FANS permite proporcionar (parte de) la trayectoria de referencia en poder de los FMS, pero la explotación de esta capacidad para la mejora de la predicción de trayectorias no se ha estudiado en profundidad en el pasado. La predicción en dos etapas proporciona una solución adecuada al problema de sincronización de trayectorias aire-tierra dado que permite la sincronización de las dimensiones controladas por el sistema de guiado utilizando la información de la trayectoria de referencia proporcionada mediante FANS, y también facilita la mejora en la predicción de las dimensiones abiertas restantes usado un modelo del guiado que explota los modelos meteorológicos mejorados disponibles en tierra. Este proceso de predicción de la trayectoria de dos etapas se aplicó a una muestra de 438 vuelos reales que realizaron un descenso continuo (sin intervención del controlador) con destino Melbourne. Dichos vuelos son de aeronaves del modelo Boeing 737-800, si bien la metodología descrita es extrapolable a otros tipos de aeronave. El método propuesto de predicción de trayectorias permite una mejora en la desviación estándar del error de la estimación del tiempo de llegada al punto de interés, que es un 30% menor que la que obtiene el FMS. Dicha trayectoria prevista mejorada se puede utilizar para establecer la secuencia de arribadas y para la asignación de las franjas horarias para cada aterrizaje (slots). Sobre la base del slot asignado, se determina un perfil de velocidades que permita cumplir con dicho slot con un impacto mínimo en la eficiencia del vuelo. En la tesis se propone un nuevo algoritmo que determina las velocidades requeridas sin necesidad de un proceso iterativo de búsqueda sobre el sistema de predicción de trayectorias. El algoritmo se basa en una parametrización inteligente del proceso de predicción de la trayectoria, que permite relacionar el tiempo estimado de llegada con una función polinómica. Resolviendo dicho polinomio para el tiempo de llegada deseado, se obtiene de forma natural el perfil de velocidades optimo para cumplir con dicho tiempo de llegada sin comprometer la eficiencia. El diseño de los sistemas de gestión de arribadas propuesto en esta tesis aprovecha la aviónica y los sistemas de comunicación instalados de un modo mucho más eficiente, proporcionando valor añadido para la industria. Por tanto, la solución es compatible con la transición hacia los sistemas de aviónica avanzados que están desarrollándose actualmente. Los beneficios que se obtengan a lo largo de dicha transición son un incentivo para inversiones subsiguientes en la aviónica y en los sistemas de control de tráfico en tierra. ABSTRACT Air traffic management (ATM) is undergoing a paradigm shift towards trajectory based operations where the role of an air traffic controller evolves from that of continuous intervention towards supervision, as decision making is improved based on increased confidence in the solutions provided by advanced automation. To support this concept, significant investment for the development and acquisition of new equipment is required on the ground as well as in the air, to facilitate the high degree of trajectory synchronisation and information exchange required. Over the past 30-40 years the airline industry has generated one of the lowest returns on invested capital among all industries. Without tangible benefits realised, the airline industry may find it difficult to attract the required investment capital and delay acquiring equipment needed to realise the concept of trajectory based operations. In response to these challenges facing the modernisation of ATM, this thesis aims to answer the question whether existing aircraft capabilities can be applied to achieve sufficient trajectory synchronisation and improvements to ground-based trajectory prediction in support of the arrival management process, to realise some of the benefits envisioned under trajectory based operations, and to provide an incentive for further avionics upgrades. The proposed operational concept aims to permit aircraft to operate in a manner consistent with current optimal aircraft operating techniques. It allows aircraft to descend in the fuel efficient path managed mode as preferred by a majority of airlines, with arrival time not actively controlled by the airborne automation. The temporal uncertainty is managed through metering at strategically chosen points along the aircraft’s trajectory with primary use of speed advisories. While the focus is on speed advisories to support all aircraft and different levels of equipage, the concept also constitutes a framework in which advanced avionics as airborne time-of-arrival control can be integrated once this technology is widely available. In addition to managing temporal uncertainty through metering at multiple points, this temporal uncertainty is minimised by improving the supporting trajectory prediction capability. A novel two-stage trajectory prediction process is presented to adequately integrate aircraft trajectory data available through Future Air Navigation Systems (FANS) into the ground-based trajectory predictor. FANS is standard equipment on any wide-body aircraft in production today, and some single-aisle aircraft are easily capable of being fitted with FANS. In addition to automatic position reporting, FANS provides the ability to provide (part of) the reference trajectory held by the aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS), but this capability has yet been widely overlooked. The two-stage process provides a ‘best of both world’s’ solution to the air-ground synchronisation problem by synchronising with the FMS reference trajectory those dimensions controlled by the guidance mode, and improving on the prediction of the remaining open dimensions by exploiting the high resolution meteorological forecast available to a ground-based system. The two-stage trajectory prediction process was applied to a sample of 438 FANS-equipped Boeing 737-800 flights into Melbourne conducting a continuous descent free from ATC intervention, and can be extrapolated to other types of aircraft. Trajectories predicted through the two-stage approach provided estimated time of arrivals with a 30% reduction in standard deviation of the error compared to estimated time of arrival calculated by the FMS. This improved predicted trajectory can subsequently be used to set the sequence and allocate landing slots. Based on the allocated landing slot, the proposed system calculates a speed schedule for the aircraft to meet this landing slot at minimal flight efficiency impact. A novel algorithm is presented that determines this speed schedule without requiring an iterative process in which multiple calls to a trajectory predictor need to be made. The algorithm is based on parameterisation of the trajectory prediction process, allowing the estimate time of arrival to be represented by a polynomial function of the speed schedule, providing an analytical solution to the speed schedule required to meet a set arrival time. The arrival management solution proposed in this thesis leverages the use of existing avionics and communications systems resulting in new value for industry for current investment. The solution therefore supports a transition concept from mixed equipage towards advanced avionics currently under development. Benefits realised under this transition may provide an incentive for ongoing investment in avionics.

A level set approach for the analysis of flow and compaction during resin infusion in composite materials

Fluid flow and fabric compaction during vacuum assisted resin infusion (VARI) of composite materials was simulated using a level set-based approach. Fluid infusion through the fiber preform was modeled using Darcy’s equations for the fluid flow through a porous media. The stress partition between the fluid and the fiber bed was included by means of Terzaghi’s effective stress theory. Tracking the fluid front during infusion was introduced by means of the level set method. The resulting partial differential equations for the fluid infusion and the evolution of flow front were discretized and solved approximately using the finite differences method with a uniform grid discretization of the spatial domain. The model results were validated against uniaxial VARI experiments through an [0]8 E-glass plain woven preform. The physical parameters of the model were also independently measured. The model results (in terms of the fabric thickness, pressure and fluid front evolution during filling) were in good agreement with the numerical simulations, showing the potential of the level set method to simulate resin infusion

Graphoids and separoids in model theory

We treat graphoid and separoid structures within the mathematical framework of model theory, specially suited for representing and analysing axiomatic systems with multiple semantics. We represent the graphoid axiom set in model theory, and translate algebraic separoid structures to another axiom set over the same symbols as graphoids. This brings both structures to a common, sound theoretical ground where they can be fairly compared. Our contribution further serves as a bridge between the most recent developments in formal logic research, and the well-known graphoid applications in probabilistic graphical modelling.

The vibrational energy flow transition in organic molecules: Theory meets experiment

Most large dynamical systems are thought to have ergodic dynamics, whereas small systems may not have free interchange of energy between degrees of freedom. This assumption is made in many areas of chemistry and physics, ranging from nuclei to reacting molecules and on to quantum dots. We examine the transition to facile vibrational energy flow in a large set of organic molecules as molecular size is increased. Both analytical and computational results based on local random matrix models describe the transition to unrestricted vibrational energy flow in these molecules. In particular, the models connect the number of states participating in intramolecular energy flow to simple molecular properties such as the molecular size and the distribution of vibrational frequencies. The transition itself is governed by a local anharmonic coupling strength and a local state density. The theoretical results for the transition characteristics compare well with those implied by experimental measurements using IR fluorescence spectroscopy of dilution factors reported by Stewart and McDonald [Stewart, G. M. & McDonald, J. D. (1983) J. Chem. Phys. 78, 3907–3915].

Theory for normal and impaired experience-dependent plasticity in neocortex of adult rats

We model experience-dependent plasticity in the cortical representation of whiskers (the barrel cortex) in normal adult rats, and in adult rats that were prenatally exposed to alcohol. Prenatal exposure to alcohol (PAE) caused marked deficits in experience-dependent plasticity in a cortical barrel-column. Cortical plasticity was induced by trimming all whiskers on one side of the face except two. This manipulation produces high activity from the intact whiskers that contrasts with low activity from the cut whiskers while avoiding any nerve damage. By a computational model, we show that the evolution of neuronal responses in a single barrel-column after this sensory bias is consistent with the synaptic modifications that follow the rules of the Bienenstock, Cooper, and Munro (BCM) theory. The BCM theory postulates that a neuron possesses a moving synaptic modification threshold, θM, that dictates whether the neuron's activity at any given instant will lead to strengthening or weakening of its input synapses. The current value of θM changes proportionally to the square of the neuron's activity averaged over some recent past. In the model of alcohol impaired cortex, the effective θM has been set to a level unattainable by the depressed levels of cortical activity leading to “impaired” synaptic plasticity that is consistent with experimental findings. Based on experimental and computational results, we discuss how elevated θM may be related to (i) reduced levels of neurotransmitters modulating plasticity, (ii) abnormally low expression of N-methyl-d-aspartate receptors (NMDARs), and (iii) the membrane translocation of Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) in adult rat cortex subjected to prenatal alcohol exposure.

A fast marching level set method for monotonically advancing fronts.

A fast marching level set method is presented for monotonically advancing fronts, which leads to an extremely fast scheme for solving the Eikonal equation. Level set methods are numerical techniques for computing the position of propagating fronts. They rely on an initial value partial differential equation for a propagating level set function and use techniques borrowed from hyperbolic conservation laws. Topological changes, corner and cusp development, and accurate determination of geometric properties such as curvature and normal direction are naturally obtained in this setting. This paper describes a particular case of such methods for interfaces whose speed depends only on local position. The technique works by coupling work on entropy conditions for interface motion, the theory of viscosity solutions for Hamilton-Jacobi equations, and fast adaptive narrow band level set methods. The technique is applicable to a variety of problems, including shape-from-shading problems, lithographic development calculations in microchip manufacturing, and arrival time problems in control theory.

An evolutionary theory of the family.

An evolutionary framework for viewing the formation, the stability, the organizational structure, and the social dynamics of biological families is developed. This framework is based upon three conceptual pillars: ecological constraints theory, inclusive fitness theory, and reproductive skew theory. I offer a set of 15 predictions pertaining to living within family groups. The logic of each is discussed, and empirical evidence from family-living vertebrates is summarized. I argue that knowledge of four basic parameters, (i) genetic relatedness, (ii) social dominance, (iii) the benefits of group living, and (iv) the probable success of independent reproduction, can explain many aspects of family life in birds and mammals. I suggest that this evolutionary perspective will provide insights into understanding human family systems as well.

Seven newly discovered intron positions in the triose-phosphate isomerase gene: evidence for the introns-late theory.

The gene encoding the glycolytic enzyme triose-phosphate isomerase (TPI; EC 5.3.1.1) has been central to the long-standing controversy on the origin and evolutionary significance of spliceosomal introns by virtue of its pivotal support for the introns-early view, or exon theory of genes. Putative correlations between intron positions and TPI protein structure have led to the conjecture that the gene was assembled by exon shuffling, and five TPI intron positions are old by the criterion of being conserved between animals and plants. We have sequenced TPI genes from three diverse eukaryotes--the basidiomycete Coprinus cinereus, the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, and the insect Heliothis virescens--and have found introns at seven novel positions that disrupt previously recognized gene/protein structure correlations. The set of 21 TPI introns now known is consistent with a random model of intron insertion. Twelve of the 21 TPI introns appear to be of recent origin since each is present in but a single examined species. These results, together with their implication that as more TPI genes are sequenced more intron positions will be found, render TPI untenable as a paradigm for the introns-early theory and, instead, support the introns-late view that spliceosomal introns have been inserted into preexisting genes during eukaryotic evolution.

Groups, information theory, and Einstein's likelihood principle

We propose a unifying picture where the notion of generalized entropy is related to information theory by means of a group-theoretical approach. The group structure comes from the requirement that an entropy be well defined with respect to the composition of independent systems, in the context of a recently proposed generalization of the Shannon-Khinchin axioms. We associate to each member of a large class of entropies a generalized information measure, satisfying the additivity property on a set of independent systems as a consequence of the underlying group law. At the same time, we also show that Einstein's likelihood function naturally emerges as a byproduct of our informational interpretation of (generally nonadditive) entropies. These results confirm the adequacy of composable entropies both in physical and social science contexts.

Desarrollo cultural en las organizaciones: un modelo de estudio basado en la Grounded Theory

La cultura organizacional se configura a partir de la interrelación de los procesos de apropiación de la filosofía, la pertenencia, la adaptación, la satisfacción y el liderazgo compartidos por un grupo. Este conjunto de categorías puede ser reconocido mediante el uso de una matriz que incluye en su estructura subcategorías o conceptos y un conjunto de propiedades observables en el público interno. El presente artículo tiene por objetivo describir un modelo de estudio construido a partir de la Grounded Theory o Teoría Fundamentada que nos permita comprender el desarrollo cultural de las organizaciones. El estudio de caso se realizó en una compañía líder en Europa del sector de la distribución.

Sustainable Development and Collective Learning: Theory and a European Case Study. Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) Briefing 7/2004

Network governance of collective learning processes is an essential approach to sustainable development. The first section of the article briefly refers to recent theories about both market and government failures that express scepticism about the way framework conditions for market actors are set. For this reason, the development of networks for collective learning processes seems advantageous if new solutions are to be developed in policy areas concerned with long-term changes and a stepwise internalisation of externalities. With regard to corporate actors’ interests, the article shows recent insights from theories about the knowledge-based firm, where the creation of new knowledge is based on the absorption of societal views. This concept shifts the focus towards knowledge generation as an essential element in the evolution of sustainable markets. This involves at the same time the development of new policies. In this context innovation-inducing regulation is suggested and discussed. The evolution of the Swedish, German and Dutch wind turbine industries are analysed based on the approach of governance put forward in this article. We conclude that these coevolutionary mechanisms may take for granted some of the stabilising and orientating functions previously exercised by basic regulatory activities of the state. In this context, the main function of the governments is to facilitate learning processes that depart from the government functions suggested by welfare economics.

On finding the maximal elements in a set of plane vectors /

"UIUCDCS-R-74-667"

Are you a bromide? : or, The sulphitic theory expounded and exemplified according to the most recent researches into the psychology of boredom, including many well-known bromidioms now in use /

"This essay is reprinted, with revisions and additions, from 'The sulphitic theory,' published in 'the Smart set' for April, 1906."

On the use of impact theory for slender configurations exhibiting flow separation /

Photocopy.

Transition-state-theory calculations for reactions of O(3P) with halogenated olefins

The potential energy surfaces for the reactions of atomic oxygen in its ground electronic state, O(P-3), with the olefins: CF2=CCl2 and CF2=CF - CF3, have been characterized using ab initio molecular orbital calculations. Geometry optimization and vibrational frequency calculations were performed for reactants, transition states and products at the MP2 and QCISD levels of theory using the 6-31G(d) basis set. This database was then used to calculate the rate constants by means of Transition-State-Theory. To obtain a better reference and to test the reliability of the activation barriers we have also carried out computations using the CCSD(T)(fc)/6-311Gdagger, MP4(SDQ)(fc)/CBSB4 and MP2(fc)/CBSB3 single point energy calculations at both of the above levels of theory, as well as with the composite CBS-RAD procedure ( P. M. Mayer, C. J. Parkinson, D. M. Smith and L. Radom, J. Chem. Phys., 1998, 108, 604) and a modi. cation of this approach, called: CBS-RAD( MP2, MP2). It was found that the kinetic parameters obtained in this work particularly with the CBS-RAD ( MP2, MP2) procedure are in reasonable agreement with the experimental values. For both reactions it is found that the channels leading to the olefin double-bond addition predominates with respect to any other reaction pathway. However, on account of the different substituents in the alkenes we have located, at all levels of theory, two transition states for each reaction. Moreover, we have found that, for the reactions studied, a correlation exists between the activation energies and the electronic structure of the transition states which can explain the influence of the substituent effect on the reactivity of the halo-olefins.