Identification of patients at risk of poor outcomes following hip or knee arthroplasty

Les arthroplasties totales de la hanche (ATH) et du genou (ATG) sont souvent offertes aux patients atteints de dégénérescence articulaire sévère. Bien qu’efficace chez la majorité des patients, ces interventions mènent à des résultats sous-optimaux dans de nombreux cas. Il demeure difficile d’identifier les patients à risque de résultats sous-optimaux à l’heure actuelle. L’identification de ces patients avant la chirurgie pourrait permettre d’optimiser la gamme de soins et de services offerts et de possiblement améliorer les résultats de leur chirurgie. Ce mémoire a comme objectifs : 1) de réaliser une revue systématique des déterminants associés à la douleur et aux incapacités fonctionnelles rapportées par les patients à moyen-terme suivant ces deux types d’arthroplastie et 2) de développer des modèles de prédiction clinique permettant l’identification des patients à risque de mauvais résultats en terme de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles suivant l’ATH et l’ATG. Une revue systématique de la littérature identifiant les déterminants de la douleur et de la fonction suivant l’ATH et l’ATG a été réalisée dans quatre bases de données jusqu’en avril 2015 et octobre 2014, respectivement. Afin de développer un algorithme de prédiction pouvant identifier les patients à risque de résultats sous-optimaux, nous avons aussi utilisé des données rétrospectives provenant de 265 patients ayant subi une ATH à l’Hôpital Maisonneuve-Rosemont (HMR) de 2004 à 2010. Finalement, des données prospectives sur 141 patients recrutés au moment de leur inclusion sur une liste d’attente pour une ATG dans trois hôpitaux universitaires à Québec, Canada et suivis jusqu’à six mois après la chirurgie ont permis l’élaboration d’une règle de prédiction clinique permettant l’identification des patients à risque de mauvais résultats en terme de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles. Vingt-deux (22) études d’une qualité méthodologique moyenne à excellente ont été incluses dans la revue. Les principaux déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATH incluaient: le niveau préopératoire de douleur et de fonction, un indice de la masse corporelle plus élevé, des comorbidités médicales plus importantes, un état de santé générale diminué, une scolarité plus faible, une arthrose radiographique moins sévère et la présence d’arthrose à la hanche controlatérale. Trente-quatre (34) études évaluant les déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATG avec une qualité méthodologique moyenne à excellente ont été évaluées et les déterminants suivant ont été identifiés: le niveau préopératoire de douleur et de fonction, des comorbidités médicales plus importantes, un état de santé générale diminué, un plus grands niveau d’anxiété et/ou de symptômes dépressifs, la présence de douleur au dos, plus de pensées catastrophiques ou un faible niveau socioéconomique. Pour la création d’une règle de prédiction clinique, un algorithme préliminaire composé de l’âge, du sexe, de l’indice de masse corporelle ainsi que de trois questions du WOMAC préopératoire a permis l’identification des patients à risque de résultats chirurgicaux sous-optimaux (pire quartile du WOMAC postopératoire et percevant leur hanche opérée comme artificielle avec des limitations fonctionnelles mineures ou majeures) à une durée moyenne ±écart type de 446±171 jours après une ATH avec une sensibilité de 75.0% (95% IC: 59.8 – 85.8), une spécificité de 77.8% (95% IC: 71.9 – 82.7) et un rapport de vraisemblance positif de 3.38 (98% IC: 2.49 – 4.57). Une règle de prédiction clinique formée de cinq items du questionnaire WOMAC préopratoire a permis l’identification des patients en attente d’une ATG à risque de mauvais résultats (pire quintile du WOMAC postopératoire) six mois après l’ATG avec une sensibilité de 82.1 % (95% IC: 66.7 – 95.8), une spécificité de 71.7% (95% IC: 62.8 – 79.8) et un rapport de vraisemblance positif de 2.9 (95% IC: 1.8 – 4.7). Les résultats de ce mémoire ont permis d’identifier, à partir de la littérature, une liste de déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATH et l’ATG avec le plus haut niveau d’évidence à ce jour. De plus, deux modèles de prédiction avec de très bonnes capacités prédictives ont été développés afin d’identifier les patients à risque de mauvais résultats chirurgicaux après l’ATH et l’ATG. L’identification de ces patients avant la chirurgie pourrait permettre d’optimiser leur prise en charge et de possiblement améliorer les résultats de leur chirurgie.

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF THE ANTERIOR CRUCIATE LIGAMENT INJURY-RISK-ESTIMATION QUIZ (ACL-IQ)

Over 2 million Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) injuries occur annually worldwide resulting in considerable economic and health burdens (e.g., suffering, surgery, loss of function, risk for re-injury, and osteoarthritis). Current screening methods are effective but they generally rely on expensive and time-consuming biomechanical movement analysis, and thus are impractical solutions. In this dissertation, I report on a series of studies that begins to investigate one potentially efficient alternative to biomechanical screening, namely skilled observational risk assessment (e.g., having experts estimate risk based on observations of athletes movements). Specifically, in Study 1 I discovered that ACL injury risk can be accurately and reliably estimated with nearly instantaneous visual inspection when observed by skilled and knowledgeable professionals. Modern psychometric optimization techniques were then used to develop a robust and efficient 5-item test of ACL injury risk prediction skill—i.e., the ACL Injury-Risk-Estimation Quiz or ACL-IQ. Study 2 cross-validated the results from Study 1 in a larger representative sample of both skilled (Exercise Science/Sports Medicine) and un-skilled (General Population) groups. In accord with research on human expertise, quantitative structural and process modeling of risk estimation indicated that superior performance was largely mediated by specific strategies and skills (e.g., ignoring irrelevant information), independent of domain general cognitive abilities (e.g., metal rotation, general decision skill). These cognitive models suggest that ACL-IQ is a trainable skill, providing a foundation for future research and applications in training, decision support, and ultimately clinical screening investigations. Overall, I present the first evidence that observational ACL injury risk prediction is possible including a robust technology for fast, accurate and reliable measurement—i.e., the ACL-IQ. Discussion focuses on applications and outreach including a web platform that was developed to house the test, provide a repository for further data collection, and increase public and professional awareness and outreach (www.ACL-IQ.org). Future directions and general applications of the skilled movement analysis approach are also discussed.

A case-only genome-wide association study of gender- and age-specific risk markers for childhood leukemia

Males and age group 1 to 5 years show a much higher risk for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). We performed a case-only genome-wide association study (GWAS), using the Illumina Infinium HumanCoreExome Chip, to unmask gender- and age-specific risk variants in 240 non-Hispanic white children with ALL recruited at Texas Children’s Cancer Center, Houston, Texas. Besides statistically most significant results, we also considered results that yielded the highest effect sizes. Existing experimental data and bioinformatic predictions were used to complement results, and to examine the biological significance of statistical results. ^ Our study identified novel risk variants for childhood ALL. The SNP, rs4813720 (RASSF2), showed the statistically most significant gender-specific associations (P < 2 x 10-6). Likewise, rs10505918 (SOX5) yielded the lowest P value (P < 1 x 10-5 ) for age-specific associations, and also showed the statistically most significant association with age-at-onset (P < 1 x 10-4). Two SNPs, rs12722042 and 12722039, from the HLA-DQA1 region yielded the highest effect sizes (odds ratio (OR) = 15.7; P = 0.002) for gender-specific results, and the SNP, rs17109582 (OR = 12.5; P = 0.006), showed the highest effect size for age-specific results. Sex chromosome variants did not appear to be involved in gender-specific associations. ^ The HLA-DQA1 SNPs belong to DQA1*01:07and confirmed previously reported male-specific association with DQA1*01:07. Twenty one of the SNPs identified as risk markers for gender- or age-specific associations were located in the transcription factor binding sites and 56 SNPs were non-synonymous variants, likely to alter protein function. Although bioinformatic analysis did not implicate a particular mechanism for gender- and age-specific associations, RASSF2 has an estrogen receptor-alpha binding site in its promoter. The unknown mechanisms may be due to lack of interest in gender- and age-specificity in associations. These results provide a foundation for further studies to examine the gender- and age-differential in childhood ALL risk. Following replication and mechanistic studies, risk factors for one gender or age group may have a potential to be used as biomarkers for targeted intervention for prevention and maybe also for treatment.^

Prevalence and risk factors for reduced sound tolerance (hyperacusis) in children

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of reduced sound tolerance (hyperacusis) in a UK population of 11-year-old children and examine the association of early life and auditory risk factors with report of hyperacusis. DESIGN: A prospective UK population-based study. STUDY SAMPLE: A total of 7097 eleven-year-old children within the Avon longitudinal study of parents and children (ALSPAC) were asked about sound tolerance; hearing and middle-ear function was measured using audiometry, otoacoustic emissions, and tympanometry. Information on neonatal risk factors and socioeconomic factors were obtained through parental questionnaires. RESULTS: 3.7% (95% CI 3.25, 4.14) children reported hyperacusis. Hyperacusis report was less likely in females (adj OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.49, 0.85), and was more likely with higher maternal education level (adj OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.08, 2.72) and with readmission to hospital in first four weeks (adj OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.20, 3.25). Report of hyperacusis was associated with larger amplitude otoacoustic emissions but with no other auditory factors. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of hyperacusis in the population of 11-year-old UK children is estimated to be 3.7%. It is more common in boys.

Identification of patients at risk of poor outcomes following hip or knee arthroplasty

Les arthroplasties totales de la hanche (ATH) et du genou (ATG) sont souvent offertes aux patients atteints de dégénérescence articulaire sévère. Bien qu’efficace chez la majorité des patients, ces interventions mènent à des résultats sous-optimaux dans de nombreux cas. Il demeure difficile d’identifier les patients à risque de résultats sous-optimaux à l’heure actuelle. L’identification de ces patients avant la chirurgie pourrait permettre d’optimiser la gamme de soins et de services offerts et de possiblement améliorer les résultats de leur chirurgie. Ce mémoire a comme objectifs : 1) de réaliser une revue systématique des déterminants associés à la douleur et aux incapacités fonctionnelles rapportées par les patients à moyen-terme suivant ces deux types d’arthroplastie et 2) de développer des modèles de prédiction clinique permettant l’identification des patients à risque de mauvais résultats en terme de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles suivant l’ATH et l’ATG. Une revue systématique de la littérature identifiant les déterminants de la douleur et de la fonction suivant l’ATH et l’ATG a été réalisée dans quatre bases de données jusqu’en avril 2015 et octobre 2014, respectivement. Afin de développer un algorithme de prédiction pouvant identifier les patients à risque de résultats sous-optimaux, nous avons aussi utilisé des données rétrospectives provenant de 265 patients ayant subi une ATH à l’Hôpital Maisonneuve-Rosemont (HMR) de 2004 à 2010. Finalement, des données prospectives sur 141 patients recrutés au moment de leur inclusion sur une liste d’attente pour une ATG dans trois hôpitaux universitaires à Québec, Canada et suivis jusqu’à six mois après la chirurgie ont permis l’élaboration d’une règle de prédiction clinique permettant l’identification des patients à risque de mauvais résultats en terme de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles. Vingt-deux (22) études d’une qualité méthodologique moyenne à excellente ont été incluses dans la revue. Les principaux déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATH incluaient: le niveau préopératoire de douleur et de fonction, un indice de la masse corporelle plus élevé, des comorbidités médicales plus importantes, un état de santé générale diminué, une scolarité plus faible, une arthrose radiographique moins sévère et la présence d’arthrose à la hanche controlatérale. Trente-quatre (34) études évaluant les déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATG avec une qualité méthodologique moyenne à excellente ont été évaluées et les déterminants suivant ont été identifiés: le niveau préopératoire de douleur et de fonction, des comorbidités médicales plus importantes, un état de santé générale diminué, un plus grands niveau d’anxiété et/ou de symptômes dépressifs, la présence de douleur au dos, plus de pensées catastrophiques ou un faible niveau socioéconomique. Pour la création d’une règle de prédiction clinique, un algorithme préliminaire composé de l’âge, du sexe, de l’indice de masse corporelle ainsi que de trois questions du WOMAC préopératoire a permis l’identification des patients à risque de résultats chirurgicaux sous-optimaux (pire quartile du WOMAC postopératoire et percevant leur hanche opérée comme artificielle avec des limitations fonctionnelles mineures ou majeures) à une durée moyenne ±écart type de 446±171 jours après une ATH avec une sensibilité de 75.0% (95% IC: 59.8 – 85.8), une spécificité de 77.8% (95% IC: 71.9 – 82.7) et un rapport de vraisemblance positif de 3.38 (98% IC: 2.49 – 4.57). Une règle de prédiction clinique formée de cinq items du questionnaire WOMAC préopratoire a permis l’identification des patients en attente d’une ATG à risque de mauvais résultats (pire quintile du WOMAC postopératoire) six mois après l’ATG avec une sensibilité de 82.1 % (95% IC: 66.7 – 95.8), une spécificité de 71.7% (95% IC: 62.8 – 79.8) et un rapport de vraisemblance positif de 2.9 (95% IC: 1.8 – 4.7). Les résultats de ce mémoire ont permis d’identifier, à partir de la littérature, une liste de déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATH et l’ATG avec le plus haut niveau d’évidence à ce jour. De plus, deux modèles de prédiction avec de très bonnes capacités prédictives ont été développés afin d’identifier les patients à risque de mauvais résultats chirurgicaux après l’ATH et l’ATG. L’identification de ces patients avant la chirurgie pourrait permettre d’optimiser leur prise en charge et de possiblement améliorer les résultats de leur chirurgie.

The role of inflammation in vascular function and pregnancy outcome in the pregnant stroke prone spontaneously hypertensive rat

During pregnancy, the maternal cardiovascular system undergoes major adaptation. One of these changes is a 40-50 % increase in circulating blood volume which requires a systemic remodelling of the vasculature in order to regulate maternal blood pressure and maximise blood supply to the developing placenta and fetus. These changes are broadly conserved between humans and rats making them an appropriate pre-clinical model in which to study the underlying mechanisms of pregnancy-dependent cardiovascular remodelling. Whilst women are normally protected against cardiovascular disease; pregnancy marks a period of time where women are susceptible to cardiovascular complications. Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of maternal mortality in the United Kingdom; in particular hypertensive conditions are among the most common complications of pregnancy. One of the main underlying pathologies of these pregnancy complications is thought to be a failure of the maternal cardiovascular system to adapt. The remodelling of the uterine arteries, which directly supply the maternal-fetal interface, is paramount to a healthy pregnancy. Failure of the uterine arteries to remodel sufficiently can result in a number of obstetric complications such as preeclampsia, fetal growth restriction and spontaneous pregnancy loss. At present, it is poorly understood whether this deficient vascular response is due to a predisposition from existing maternal cardiovascular risk factors, the physiological changes that occur during pregnancy or a combination of both. Previous work in our group employed the stroke prone spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHRSP) as a model to investigate pregnancy-dependent remodelling of the uterine arteries. The SHRSP develops hypertension from 6 weeks of age and can be contrasted with the control strain, the Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rat. The phenotype of the SHRSP is therefore reflective of the clinical situation of maternal chronic hypertension during pregnancy. We showed that the SHRSP exhibited a deficient uterine artery remodelling response with respect to both structure and function accompanied by a reduction in litter size relative to the WKY at gestational day (GD) 18. A previous intervention study using nifedipine in the SHRSP achieved successful blood pressure reduction from 6 weeks of age and throughout pregnancy; however uterine artery remodelling and litter size at GD18 was not improved. We concluded that the abnormal uterine artery remodelling present in the SHRSP was independent of chronic hypertension. From these findings, we hypothesised that the SHRSP could be a novel model of spontaneously deficient uterine artery remodelling in response to pregnancy which was underpinned by other as yet unidentified cardiovascular risk factors. In Chapter 1 of this thesis, I have characterised the maternal, placental and fetal phenotype in pregnant (GD18) SHRSP and WKY. The pregnant SHRSP exhibit features of left ventricular hypertrophy in response to pregnancy and altered expression of maternal plasma biomarkers which have been previously associated with hypertension in human pregnancy. I developed a protocol for accurate dissection of the rat uteroplacental unit using qPCR probes specific for each layer. This allowed me to make an accurate and specific statement about gene expression in the SHRSP GD18 placenta; where oxidative stress related gene markers were increased in the vascular compartments. The majority of SHRSP placenta presented at GD18 with a blackened ring which encircled the tissue. Further investigation of the placenta using western blot for caspase 3 cleavage determined that this was likely due to increased cell death in the SHRSP placenta. The SHRSP also presented with a loss of one particular placental cell type at GD18: the glycogen cells. These cells could have been the target of cell death in the SHRSP placenta or were utilised early in pregnancy as a source of energy due to the deficient uterine artery blood supply. Blastocyst implantation was not altered but resorption rate was increased between SHRSP and WKY; indicating that the reduction in litter size in the SHRSP was primarily due to late (>GD14) pregnancy loss. Fetal growth was not restricted in SHRSP which led to the conclusion that SHRSP sacrifice part of their litter to deliver a smaller number of healthier pups. Activation of the immune system is a common pathway that has been implicated in the development of both hypertension and adverse pregnancy outcome. In Chapter 2, I proposed that this may be a mechanism of interest in SHRSP pregnancy and measured the pro-inflammatory cytokine, TNFα, as a marker of inflammation in pregnant SHRSP and WKY and in the placentas from these animals. TNFα was up-regulated in maternal plasma and urine from the GD18 SHRSP. In addition, TNFα release was increased from the GD18 SHRSP placenta as was the expression of the pro-inflammatory TNFα receptor 1 (Tnfr1). In order to investigate whether this excess TNFα was detrimental to SHRSP pregnancy, a vehicle-controlled intervention study using etanercept (a monoclonal antibody which works as a TNFα antagonist) was carried out. Etanercept treatment at GD0, 6, 12 and 18 resulted in an improvement in pregnancy outcome in the SHRSP with an increased litter size and reduced resorption rate. Furthermore, there was an improved uterine artery function in GD18 SHRSP treated with etanercept which was associated with an improved uterine artery blood flow over the course of gestation. In Chapter 3, I sought to identify the source of this detrimental excess of TNFα by designing a panel for maternal leukocytes in the blood and placenta at GD18. A population of CD3- CD161+ cells, which are defined as rat natural killer (NK) cells, were increased in number in the SHRSP. Intracellular flow cytometry also identified this cell type as a source of excess TNFα in blood and placenta from pregnant SHRSP. I then went on to evaluate the effects of etanercept treatment on these CD3- CD161+ cells and showed that etanercept reduced the expression of CD161 and the cytotoxic molecule, granzyme B, in the NK cells. Thus, etanercept limits the cytotoxicity and potential damaging effect of these NK cells in the SHRSP placenta. Analysing the urinary peptidome has clinical potential to identify novel pathways involved with disease and/or to develop biomarker panels to aid and stratify diagnosis. In Chapter 4, I utilised the SHRSP as a pre-clinical model to identify novel urinary peptides associated with hypertensive pregnancy. Firstly, a characterisation study was carried out in the kidney of the WKY and SHRSP. Urine samples from WKY and SHRSP taken at pre-pregnancy, mid-pregnancy (GD12) and late pregnancy (GD18) were used in the peptidomic screen. In order to capture peptides which were markers of hypertensive pregnancy from the urinary peptidomic data, I focussed on those that were only changed in a strain dependent manner at GD12 and 18 and not pre-pregnancy. Peptide fragments from the uromodulin protein were identified from this analysis to be increased in pregnant SHRSP relative to pregnant WKY. This increase in uromodulin was validated at the SHRSP kidney level using qPCR. Uromodulin has previously been identified to be a candidate molecule involved in systemic arterial hypertension but not in hypertensive pregnancy thus is a promising target for further study. In summary, we have characterised the SHRSP as the first model of maternal chronic hypertension during pregnancy and identified that inflammation mediated by TNFα and NK cells plays a key role in the pathology. The evidence presented in this thesis establishes the SHRSP as a pre-clinical model for pregnancy research and can be continued into clinical studies in pregnant women with chronic hypertension which remains an area of unmet research need.

Erythropoietin reduces pathogenic humoral immunity by inhibiting T Follicular Helper cell differentiation and function

A large fraction of organ transplant recipients develop anti-donor antibodies (DSA), with accelerated graft loss and increased mortality. We tested the hypothesis that erythropoietin (EPO) reduces DSA formation by inhibiting T follicular helper (TFH) cells. We measured DSA levels, splenic TFH, TFR cells, germinal center (GC), and class switched B cells, in murine models of allogeneic sensitization, allogeneic transplantation and in parent-to-F1 models of graft versus host disease (GVHD). We quantified the same cell subsets and specific antibodies, upon EPO or vehicle treatment, in wild type mice and animals lacking EPO receptor selectively on T or B cells, immunized with T-independent or T-dependent stimuli. In vitro, we tested the EPO effect on TFH induction. We isolated TFH and TFR cells to perform in vitro assay and clarify their role. EPO reduced DSA levels, GC, class switched B cells, and increased the TFR/TFH ratio in the heart transplanted mice and in two GVHD models. EPO did also reduce TFH and GC B cells in SRBC-immunized mice, while had no effect in TNP-AECM-FICOLL-immunized animals, indicating that EPO inhibits GC B cells by targeting TFH cells. EPO effects were absent in T cells EPOR conditional KO mice, confirming that EPO affects TFH in vivo through EPOR. In vitro, EPO affected TFH induction through an EPO-EPOR-STAT5-dependent pathway. Suppression assay demonstrated that the reduction of IgG antibodies was dependent on TFH cells, sustaining the central role of the subset in this EPO-mediated mechanism. In conclusion, EPO prevents DSA formation in mice through a direct suppression of TFH. Development of DSA is associated with high risk of graft rejection, giving our data a strong rationale for studies testing the hypothesis that EPO administration prevents their formation in organ transplant recipients. Our findings provide a foundation for testing EPO as a treatment of antibody mediated disease processes.

Modeling Alzheimer disease with iPSCs and mouse model for the identification of risk factors, new targets, and potential therapeutical strategies

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common neurodegenerative disease in elderly. Donepezil is the first-line drug used for AD. In section one, the experimental activity was oriented to evaluate and characterize molecular and cellular mechanisms that contribute to neurodegeneration induced by the Aβ1-42 oligomers (Aβ1-42O) and potential neuroprotective effects of the hybrids feruloyl-donepezil compound called PQM130. The effects of PQM130 were compared to donepezil in a murine AD model, obtained by intracerebroventricular (i.c.v.) injection of Aβ1-42O. The intraperitoneal administration of PQM130 (0.5-1 mg/kg) after i.c.v. Aβ1-42O injection improved learning and memory, protecting mice against spatial cognition decline. Moreover, it reduced oxidative stress, neuroinflammation and neuronal apoptosis, induced cell survival and protein synthesis in mice hippocampus. PQM130 modulated different pathways than donepezil, and it is more effective in counteracting Aβ1-42O damage. The section two of the experimental activity was focused on studying a loss of function variants of ABCA7. GWA studies identified mutations in the ABCA7 gene as a risk factor for AD. The mechanism through which ABCA7 contributes to AD is not clear. ABCA7 regulates lipid metabolism and critically controls phagocytic function. To investigate ABCA7 functions, CRISPR/Cas9 technology was used to engineer human iPSCs and to carry the genetic variant Y622*, which results in a premature stop codon, causing ABCA7 loss-of-function. From iPSCs, astrocytes were generated. This study revealed the effects of ABCA7 loss in astrocytes. ABCA7 Y622* mutation induced dysfunctional endocytic trafficking, impairing Aβ clearance, lipid dysregulation and cell homeostasis disruption, alterations that could contribute to AD. Though further studies are needed to confirm the PQM130 neuroprotective role and ABCA7 function in AD, the provided results showed a better understanding of AD pathophysiology, a new therapeutic approach to treat AD, and illustrated an innovative methodology for studying the disease.

Joint value at risk: a new conditional risk measure

In this PhD thesis a new firm level conditional risk measure is developed. It is named Joint Value at Risk (JVaR) and is defined as a quantile of a conditional distribution of interest, where the conditioning event is a latent upper tail event. It addresses the problem of how risk changes under extreme volatility scenarios. The properties of JVaR are studied based on a stochastic volatility representation of the underlying process. We prove that JVaR is leverage consistent, i.e. it is an increasing function of the dependence parameter in the stochastic representation. A feasible class of nonparametric M-estimators is introduced by exploiting the elicitability of quantiles and the stochastic ordering theory. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the two stage M-estimator are derived, and a simulation study is reported to illustrate its finite-sample properties. Parametric estimation methods are also discussed. The relation with the VaR is exploited to introduce a volatility contribution measure, and a tail risk measure is also proposed. The analysis of the dynamic JVaR is presented based on asymmetric stochastic volatility models. Empirical results with S&P500 data show that accounting for extreme volatility levels is relevant to better characterize the evolution of risk. The work is complemented by a review of the literature, where we provide an overview on quantile risk measures, elicitable functionals and several stochastic orderings.

New perspectives on A.I. in sentencing. Human decision-making between risk assessment tools and protection of humans rights.

The aim of this thesis is to investigate a field that until a few years ago was foreign to and distant from the penal system. The purpose of this undertaking is to account for the role that technology could plays in the Italian Criminal Law system. More specifically, this thesis attempts to scrutinize a very intricate phase of adjudication. After deciding on the type of an individual's liability, a judge must decide on the severity of the penalty. This type of decision implies a prognostic assessment that looks to the future. It is precisely in this field and in prognostic assessments that, as has already been anticipated in the United, instruments and processes are inserted in the pre-trial but also in the decision-making phase. In this contribution, we attempt to describe the current state of this field, trying, as a matter of method, to select the most relevant or most used tools. Using comparative and qualitative methods, the uses of some of these instruments in the supranational legal system are analyzed. Focusing attention on the Italian system, an attempt was made to investigate the nature of the element of an individual's ‘social dangerousness’ (pericolosità sociale) and capacity to commit offences, types of assessments that are fundamental in our system because they are part of various types of decisions, including the choice of the best sanctioning treatment. It was decided to turn our attention to this latter field because it is believed that the judge does not always have the time, the means and the ability to assess all the elements of a subject and identify the best 'individualizing' treatment in order to fully realize the function of Article 27, paragraph 3 of the Constitution.

Retrospective assessment of fracture risk through opportunistic radiological screening in a large modern cohort of liver transplant recipients

Objective: Liver transplantation has been associated with a high prevalence of osteoporosis, although most data rely on single-center studies with limited sample size, with most of them dating back to late 1990s and early 2000s. The present thesis aims to assess the prevalence of fragility fractures and contributing factors in a large modern cohort of liver transplant recipients managed in a referral Italian Liver Transplant Center. Design and Methods: Paper and electronic medical records of 429 consecutive patients receiving liver transplantation from 1/1/2010 to 31/12/2015 were reviewed, and 366 patients were selected. Clinically obtained electronic radiological images within 6 months from the date of liver transplant surgery, such as lateral views of spine X-rays or CT abdominal scans, were opportunistically reviewed in a blinded fashion to screen for morphometric vertebral fractures. Clinical fragility fractures reported in the medical records, along with information on etiology of cirrhosis and biochemistries at the time of liver surgery were also recorded. Results: Prevalence of fragility fractures in the whole cohort was 155/366 (42.3%), with no significant differences between sexes. Of patients with fractures, most sustained vertebral fractures (145/155, 93.5%), the majority of which were mild or moderate wedges. Multiple vertebral fractures were common (41.3%). Fracture rates were similar across different etiologies of cirrhosis and were also comparable in patients with diabetes or exposed to glucocorticoids. Kidney function was significantly worse in women with fractures. Independent of age, sex, alcohol use, eGFR, etiology of liver disease, lower BMI was the only independent risk factor for fractures (adjusted OR 1,058, 95%CI 1,001-1,118, P=0.046) in this study population. Conclusions: A considerable fracture burden was shown in a large and modern cohort of liver transplant recipients. Given the remarkably high prevalence of fractures, a metabolic bone disease screening should be implemented in every patient awaiting liver transplantation.

Lung Age Is Related To Carotid Structural Alterations In Hypertensive Subjects.

Hypertensive patients exhibit higher cardiovascular risk and reduced lung function compared with the general population. Whether this association stems from the coexistence of two highly prevalent diseases or from direct or indirect links of pathophysiological mechanisms is presently unclear. This study investigated the association between lung function and carotid features in non-smoking hypertensive subjects with supposed normal lung function. Hypertensive patients (n = 67) were cross-sectionally evaluated by clinical, hemodynamic, laboratory, and carotid ultrasound analysis. Forced vital capacity, forced expired volume in 1 second and in 6 seconds, and lung age were estimated by spirometry. Subjects with ventilatory abnormalities according to current guidelines were excluded. Regression analysis adjusted for age and prior smoking history showed that lung age and the percentage of predicted spirometric parameters associated with common carotid intima-media thickness, diameter, and stiffness. Further analyses, adjusted for additional potential confounders, revealed that lung age was the spirometric parameter exhibiting the most significant regression coefficients with carotid features. Conversely, plasma C-reactive protein and matrix-metalloproteinases-2/9 levels did not influence this relationship. The present findings point toward lung age as a potential marker of vascular remodeling and indicate that lung and vascular remodeling might share common pathophysiological mechanisms in hypertensive subjects.

Relationship Between Orofacial Function, Dentofacial Morphology, And Bite Force In Young Subjects.

The aim was to evaluate the relationship between orofacial function, dentofacial morphology, and bite force in young subjects. Three hundred and sixteen subjects were divided according to dentition stage (early, intermediate, and late mixed and permanent dentition). Orofacial function was screened using the Nordic Orofacial Test-Screening (NOT-S). Orthodontic treatment need, bite force, lateral and frontal craniofacial dimensions and presence of sleep bruxism were also assessed. The results were submitted to descriptive statistics, normality and correlation tests, analysis of variance, and multiple linear regression to test the relationship between NOT-S scores and the studied independent variables. The variance of NOT-S scores between groups was not significant. The evaluation of the variables that significantly contributed to NOT-S scores variation showed that age and presence of bruxism related to higher NOT-S total scores, while the increase in overbite measurement and presence of closed lip posture related to lower scores. Bite force did not show a significant relationship with scores of orofacial dysfunction. No significant correlations between craniofacial dimensions and NOT-S scores were observed. Age and sleep bruxism were related to higher NOT-S scores, while the increase in overbite measurement and closed lip posture contributed to lower scores of orofacial dysfunction.

Impaired Compensatory Beta-cell Function And Growth In Response To High-fat Diet In Ldl Receptor Knockout Mice.

In this study, we investigated the effect of low density lipoprotein receptor (LDLr) deficiency on gap junctional connexin 36 (Cx36) islet content and on the functional and growth response of pancreatic beta-cells in C57BL/6 mice fed a high-fat (HF) diet. After 60 days on regular or HF diet, the metabolic state and morphometric islet parameters of wild-type (WT) and LDLr-/- mice were assessed. HF diet-fed WT animals became obese and hypercholesterolaemic as well as hyperglycaemic, hyperinsulinaemic, glucose intolerant and insulin resistant, characterizing them as prediabetic. Also they showed a significant decrease in beta-cell secretory response to glucose. Overall, LDLr-/- mice displayed greater susceptibility to HF diet as judged by their marked cholesterolaemia, intolerance to glucose and pronounced decrease in glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. HF diet induced similarly in WT and LDLr-/- mice, a significant decrease in Cx36 beta-cell content as revealed by immunoblotting. Prediabetic WT mice displayed marked increase in beta-cell mass mainly due to beta-cell hypertrophy/replication. Nevertheless, HF diet-fed LDLr-/- mice showed no significant changes in beta-cell mass, but lower islet-duct association (neogenesis) and higher beta-cell apoptosis index were seen as compared to controls. The higher metabolic susceptibility to HF diet of LDLr-/- mice may be explained by a deficiency in insulin secretory response to glucose associated with lack of compensatory beta-cell expansion.

Long-term Postoperative Atrophy Of Contralateral Hippocampus And Cognitive Function In Unilateral Refractory Mtle With Unilateral Hippocampal Sclerosis.

This study aimed to evaluate long-term atrophy in contralateral hippocampal volume after surgery for unilateral MTLE, as well as the cognitive outcome for patients submitted to either selective transsylvian amygdalohippocampectomy (SelAH) or anterior temporal lobe resection (ATL). We performed a longitudinal study of 47 patients with MRI signs of unilateral hippocampal sclerosis (23 patients with right-sided hippocampal sclerosis) who underwent surgical treatment for MTLE. They underwent preoperative/postoperative high-resolution MRI as well as neuropsychological assessment for memory and estimated IQ. To investigate possible changes in the contralateral hippocampus of patients, we included 28 controls who underwent two MRIs at long-term intervals. The volumetry using preoperative MRI showed significant hippocampal atrophy ipsilateral to the side of surgery when compared with controls (p<0.0001) but no differences in contralateral hippocampal volumes. The mean postoperative follow-up was 8.7 years (± 2.5 SD; median=8.0). Our patients were classified as Engel I (80%), Engel II (18.2%), and Engel III (1.8%). We observed a small but significant reduction in the contralateral hippocampus of patients but no volume changes in controls. Most of the patients presented small declines in both estimated IQ and memory, which were more pronounced in patients with left TLE and in those with persistent seizures. Different surgical approaches did not impose differences in seizure control or in cognitive outcome. We observed small declines in cognitive scores with most of these patients, which were worse in patients with left-sided resection and in those who continued to suffer from postoperative seizures. We also demonstrated that manual volumetry can reveal a reduction in volume in the contralateral hippocampus, although this change was mild and could not be detected by visual analysis. These new findings suggest that dynamic processes continue to act after the removal of the hippocampus, and further studies with larger groups may help in understanding the underlying mechanisms.