High-resolution dynamical downscaling products for the North Slope of Alaska and surrounding areas, links to model result files

Climatic changes are most pronounced in northern high latitude regions. Yet, there is a paucity of observational data, both spatially and temporally, such that regional-scale dynamics are not fully captured, limiting our ability to make reliable projections. In this study, a group of dynamical downscaling products were created for the period 1950 to 2100 to better understand climate change and its impacts on hydrology, permafrost, and ecosystems at a resolution suitable for northern Alaska. An ERA-interim reanalysis dataset and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) served as the forcing mechanisms in this dynamical downscaling framework, and the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, embedded with an optimization for the Arctic (Polar WRF), served as the Regional Climate Model (RCM). This downscaled output consists of multiple climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, dew point temperature, and surface air pressure) for a 10 km grid spacing at three-hour intervals. The modeling products were evaluated and calibrated using a bias-correction approach. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) produced reasonable climatic variables as a result, yielding a more closely correlated temperature field than precipitation field when long-term monthly climatology was compared with its forcing and observational data. A linear scaling method then further corrected the bias, based on ERA-interim monthly climatology, and bias-corrected ERA-WRF fields were applied as a reference for calibration of both the historical and the projected CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) products. Biases, such as, a cold temperature bias during summer and a warm temperature bias during winter as well as a wet bias for annual precipitation that CESM holds over northern Alaska persisted in CESM-WRF runs. The linear scaling of CESM-WRF eventually produced high-resolution downscaling products for the Alaskan North Slope for hydrological and ecological research, together with the calibrated ERA-WRF run, and its capability extends far beyond that. Other climatic research has been proposed, including exploration of historical and projected climatic extreme events and their possible connections to low-frequency sea-atmospheric oscillations, as well as near-surface permafrost degradation and ice regime shifts of lakes. These dynamically downscaled, bias corrected climatic datasets provide improved spatial and temporal resolution data necessary for ongoing modeling efforts in northern Alaska focused on reconstructing and projecting hydrologic changes, ecosystem processes and responses, and permafrost thermal regimes. The dynamical downscaling methods presented in this study can also be used to create more suitable model input datasets for other sub-regions of the Arctic.

Anatomy of a hemiramphid pharyngeal mill with reference to arrhamphus sclerolepis krefftii (steindachner) (teleostei: hemiramphidae)

The structure and function of the pharyngeal jaw apparatus (PJA) and postpharyngeal alimentary tract of Arrhamphus sclerolepis krefftii, an herbivorous hemiramphid, were investigated by dissection, light and scanning electron microscopy, and X-ray analysis of live specimens. A simple model of PJA operation is proposed, consisting of an adductive power stroke of the third pharyngobranchial that draws it posteriorly while the fifth ceratobranchial is adducted, and a return stroke in which the third pharyngobranchial bone is drawn anteriorly during abduction of the fifth ceratobranchial. Teeth in the posteromedial region of the PJA are eroded into an occlusion zone where the teeth of the third pharyngobranchial are spatulate incisiform and face posteriorly in opposition to the rostrally oriented spatulate incisiform teeth in the wear zone of the fifth ceratobranchial. The shape of the teeth and their pedestals (bone of attachment) is consistent with the model and with the forces likely to operate on the elements of the PJA during mastication. The role of pharyngeal tooth replacement in maintaining the occlusal surfaces in the PJA during growth is described. The postpharyngeal alimentary tract of A. sclerolepis krefftii comprises a stomachless cylinder that attenuates gradually as it passes straight to the anus, interrupted only by a rectal valve. The ratio of gut length to standard length is about 0.5. Despite superficial similarities to the cichlid PJA (Stiassny and Jensen [1987] Bull Mus Comp Zool 151: 269-319), the hemiramphid PJA differs in the fusion of the third pharyngobranchial bones, teeth in the second pharyngobranchials and the fifth ceratobranchial face anteriorly, the presence of a slide-like diarthroses between the heads of the fourth epibranchials and the third pharyngobranchial, the occlusion zone of constantly wearing teeth, and the unusual form of the muscularis craniopharyngobranchialis. The functional relationship between these structures is explained and the consequence for the fish of a complex PJA and a simple gut is discussed. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Investigation of factors related to employment outcome following traumatic brain injury: a critical review and conceptual model

Purpose : The purpose of this article is to critically review the literature to examine factors that are most consistently related to employment outcome following traumatic brain injury (TBI), with a particular focus on metacognitive skills. It also aims to develop a conceptual model of factors related to employment outcome. Method : The first stage of the review considered 85 studies published between 1980 and December 2003 which investigated factors associated with employment outcome following TBI. English-language studies were identified through searches of Medline and PsycINFO, as well as manual searches of journals and reference lists. The studies were evaluated and rated by two independent raters (Kappa = 0.835) according to the quality of their methodology based upon nine criteria. Fifty studies met the criteria for inclusion in the second stage of the review, which examined the relationship between a broad range of variables and employment outcome. Results : The factors most consistently associated with employment outcome included pre-injury occupational status, functional status at discharge, global cognitive functioning, perceptual ability, executive functioning, involvement in vocational rehabilitation services and emotional status. Conclusions : A conceptual model is presented which emphasises the importance of metacognitive, emotional and social environment factors for improving employment outcome.

A simulation model of cereal-legume intercropping systems for semi-arid regions II. Model application

Smallholder farmers in Africa practice traditional cropping techniques such as intercropping. Intercropping is thought to offer higher productivity and resource milisation than sole cropping. In this study, risk associated with maize-bean intercropping was evaluated by quantifying long-term yield in both intercropping and sole cropping in a semi-arid region of South Africa (Bloemfontein, Free State) with reference to rainfall variability. The crop simulation model was run with different cultural practices (planting date and plant density) for 52 summer crop growing seasons (1950/1951-2001/2002). Eighty-one scenarios, consisted of three levels of initial soil water, planting date, maize population, and bean population, were simulated. From the simulation outputs, the total land equivalent ratio (LER) was greater than one. The intercrop (equivalent to sole maize) had greater energy value (EV) than sole beans, and the intercrop (equivalent to sole beans) had greater monetary value (MV) than sole maize. From these results, it can be concluded that maize-bean intercropping is advantageous for this semi-arid region. Soil water at planting was the most important factor of all scenario factors, followed by planting date. Irrigation application at planting, November/December planting and high plant density of maize for EV and beans for MV can be one of the most effective cultural practices in the study region. With regard to rainfall variability, seasonal (October-April) rainfall positively affected EV and MV, but not LER. There was more intercrop production in La Nina years than in El Nino years. Thus, better cultural practices may be selected to maximize maize-bean intercrop yields for specific seasons in the semi-arid region based on the global seasonal outlook. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pore size distribution analysis of activated carbons: Application of density functional theory using nongraphitized carbon black as a reference system

The application of nonlocal density functional theory (NLDFT) to determine pore size distribution (PSD) of activated carbons using a nongraphitized carbon black, instead of graphitized thermal carbon black, as a reference system is explored. We show that in this case nitrogen and argon adsorption isotherms in activated carbons are precisely correlated by the theory, and such an excellent correlation would never be possible if the pore wall surface was assumed to be identical to that of graphitized carbon black. It suggests that pore wall surfaces of activated carbon are closer to that of amorphous solids because of defects of crystalline lattice, finite pore length, and the presence of active centers.. etc. Application of the NLDFT adapted to amorphous solids resulted in quantitative description of N-2 and Ar adsorption isotherms on nongraphitized carbon black BP280 at their respective boiling points. In the present paper we determined solid-fluid potentials from experimental adsorption isotherms on nongraphitized carbon black and subsequently used those potentials to model adsorption in slit pores and generate a corresponding set of local isotherms, which we used to determine the PSD functions of different activated carbons. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Customised birthweight: Coefficients for an Australian population and validation of the model

Background: Published birthweight references in Australia do not fully take into account constitutional factors that influence birthweight and therefore may not provide an accurate reference to identify the infant with abnormal growth. Furthermore, studies in other regions that have derived adjusted (customised) birthweight references have applied untested assumptions in the statistical modelling. Aims: To validate the customised birthweight model and to produce a reference set of coefficients for estimating a customised birthweight that may be useful for maternity care in Australia and for future research. Methods: De-identified data were extracted from the clinical database for all births at the Mater Mother's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia, between January 1997 and June 2005. Births with missing data for the variables under study were excluded. In addition the following were excluded: multiple pregnancies, births less than 37 completed week's gestation, stillbirths, and major congenital abnormalities. Multivariate analysis was undertaken. A double cross-validation procedure was used to validate the model. Results: The study of 42 206 births demonstrated that, for statistical purposes, birthweight is normally distributed. Coefficients for the derivation of customised birthweight in an Australian population were developed and the statistical model is demonstrably robust. Conclusions: This study provides empirical data as to the robustness of the model to determine customised birthweight. Further research is required to define where normal physiology ends and pathology begins, and which segments of the population should be included in the construction of a customised birthweight standard.

Toy model for a relational formulation of quantum theory

In the absence of an external frame of reference-i.e., in background independent theories such as general relativity-physical degrees of freedom must describe relations between systems. Using a simple model, we investigate how such a relational quantum theory naturally arises by promoting reference systems to the status of dynamical entities. Our goal is twofold. First, we demonstrate using elementary quantum theory how any quantum mechanical experiment admits a purely relational description at a fundamental. Second, we describe how the original non-relational theory approximately emerges from the fully relational theory when reference systems become semi-classical. Our technique is motivated by a Bayesian approach to quantum mechanics, and relies on the noiseless subsystem method of quantum information science used to protect quantum states against undesired noise. The relational theory naturally predicts a fundamental decoherence mechanism, so an arrow of time emerges from a time-symmetric theory. Moreover, our model circumvents the problem of the collapse of the wave packet as the probability interpretation is only ever applied to diagonal density operators. Finally, the physical states of the relational theory can be described in terms of spin networks introduced by Penrose as a combinatorial description of geometry, and widely studied in the loop formulation of quantum gravity. Thus, our simple bottom-up approach (starting from the semiclassical limit to derive the fully relational quantum theory) may offer interesting insights on the low energy limit of quantum gravity.

A reference methodology for conducting ontological analyses

The ontological analysis of conceptual modelling techniques is of increasing popularity. Related research did not only explore the ontological deficiencies of classical techniques such as ER or UML, but also business process modelling techniques such as ARIS or even Web services standards such as BPEL4WS. While the selected ontologies are reasonably mature, it is the actual process of an ontological analysis that still lacks rigor. The current procedure leaves significant room for individual interpretations and is one reason for criticism of the entire ontological analysis. This paper proposes a procedural model for the ontological analysis based on the use of meta models, the involvement of more than one coder and metrics. This model is explained with examples from various ontological analyses.

A reference architecture for instructional educational software

Our extensive research has indicated that high-school teachers are reluctant to make use of existing instructional educational software (Pollard, 2005). Even software developed in a partnership between a teacher and a software engineer is unlikely to be adopted by teachers outside the partnership (Pollard, 2005). In this paper we address these issues directly by adopting a reusable architectural design for instructional educational software which allows easy customisation of software to meet the specific needs of individual teachers. By doing this we will facilitate more teachers regularly using instructional technology within their classrooms. Our domain-specific software architecture, Interface-Activities-Model, was designed specifically to facilitate individual customisation by redefining and restructuring what constitutes an object so that they can be readily reused or extended as required. The key to this architecture is the way in which the software is broken into small generic encapsulated components with minimal domain specific behaviour. The domain specific behaviour is decoupled from the interface and encapsulated in objects which relate to the instructional material through tasks and activities. The domain model is also broken into two distinct models - Application State Model and Domainspecific Data Model. This decoupling and distribution of control gives the software designer enormous flexibility in modifying components without affecting other sections of the design. This paper sets the context of this architecture, describes it in detail, and applies it to an actual application developed to teach high-school mathematical concepts.

Computer control of chemical process plants with special reference to distillation

A sieve plate distillation column has been constructed and interfaced to a minicomputer with the necessary instrumentation for dynamic, estimation and control studies with special bearing on low-cost and noise-free instrumentation. A dynamic simulation of the column with a binary liquid system has been compiled using deterministic models that include fluid dynamics via Brambilla's equation for tray liquid holdup calculations. The simulation predictions have been tested experimentally under steady-state and transient conditions. The simulator's predictions of the tray temperatures have shown reasonably close agreement with the measured values under steady-state conditions and in the face of a step change in the feed rate. A method of extending linear filtering theory to highly nonlinear systems with very nonlinear measurement functional relationships has been proposed and tested by simulation on binary distillation. The simulation results have proved that the proposed methodology can overcome the typical instability problems associated with the Kalman filters. Three extended Kalman filters have been formulated and tested by simulation. The filters have been used to refine a much simplified model sequentially and to estimate parameters such as the unmeasured feed composition using information from the column simulation. It is first assumed that corrupted tray composition measurements are made available to the filter and then corrupted tray temperature measurements are accessed instead. The simulation results have demonstrated the powerful capability of the Kalman filters to overcome the typical hardware problems associated with the operation of on-line analyzers in relation to distillation dynamics and control by, in effect, replacirig them. A method of implementing estimator-aided feedforward (EAFF) control schemes has been proposed and tested by simulation on binary distillation. The results have shown that the EAFF scheme provides much better control and energy conservation than the conventional feedback temperature control in the face of a sustained step change in the feed rate or multiple changes in the feed rate, composition and temperature. Further extensions of this work are recommended as regards simulation, estimation and EAFF control.

Majority versus minority influence, message processing and attitude change:the Source-Context-Elaboration Model

This chapter examines the contexts in which people will process more deeply, and therefore be more influenced by, a position that is supported by either a numerical majority or minority. The chapter reviews the major theories of majority and minority influence with reference to which source condition is associated with most message processing (and where relevant, the contexts under which this occurs) and experimental research examining these predictions. The chapter then presents a new theoretical model (the source-context-elaboration model, SCEM) that aims to integrate the disparate research findings. The model specifies the processes underlying majority and minority influence, the contexts under which these processes occur and the consequences for attitudes changed by majority and minority influence. The chapter then describes a series of experiments that address each of the aspects of the theoretical model. Finally, a range of research-related issues are discussed and future issues for the research area as a whole are considered.

An investigation of the emerging system of host government participation in the international oil industry with particular reference to Libyan participation arrangements

This study has been conceived with the primary objective of identifying and evaluating the financial aspects of the transformation in country/company relations of the international oil industry from the traditional concessionary system to the system of governmental participation in the ownership and operation of oil concessions. The emphasis of the inquiry was placed on assembling a case study of the oil exploitation arrangements of Libya. Through a comprehensive review of the literature, the sociopolitical factors surrounding the international oil business were identified and examined in an attempt to see their influence on contractual arrangements and particularly to gauge the impact of any induced contractual changes on the revenue benefit accruing to the host country from its oil operations. Some comparative analyses were made in the study to examine the viability of the Libyan participation deals both as an investment proposal and as a system of conducting oil activities in the country. The analysis was carried out in the light of specific hypotheses to assess the relative impact of the participation scheme in comparison with the alternative concessionary model on the net revenue resulting to the government from oil operations and the relative effect on the level of research and development within the industry. A discounted cash flow analysis was conducted to measure inputs and outputs of the comparative models and judge their revenue benefits. Then an empirical analysis was carried out to detect any significant behavioural changes in the exploration and development effort associated with the different oil exploitation systems. Results of the investigation of revenues support the argument that the mere introduction of the participation system has not resulted in a significant revenue benefit to the host government. Though there has been a significant increase in government revenue, associated with the period following the emergence of the participation agreements, this increase was mainly due to socio-economic factors other than the participation scheme. At the same time the empirical results have shown an association of the participation scheme with a decline of the oil industry's research and development efforts.

Risk assessment applied to comsumer products with reference to CE marking machines for use at work

New Approach’ Directives now govern the health and safety of most products whether destined for workplace or domestic use. These Directives have been enacted into UK law by various specific legislation principally relating to work equipment, machinery and consumer products. This research investigates whether the risk assessment approach used to ensure the safety of machinery may be applied to consumer products. Crucially, consumer products are subject to the Consumer Protection Act (CPA) 1987, where there is no direct reference to “assessing risk”. This contrasts with the law governing the safety of products used in the workplace, where risk assessment underpins the approach. New Approach Directives are supported by European harmonised standards, and in the case of machinery, further supported by the risk assessment standard, EN 1050. The system regulating consumer product safety is discussed, its key elements identified and a graphical model produced. This model incorporates such matters as conformity assessment, the system of regulation, near miss and accident reporting. A key finding of the research is that New Approach Directives have a common feature of specifying essential performance requirements that provide a hazard prompt-list that can form the basis for a risk assessment (the hazard identification stage). Drawing upon 272 prosecution cases, and with thirty examples examined in detail, this research provides evidence that despite the high degree of regulation, unsafe consumer products still find their way onto the market. The research presents a number of risk assessment tools to help Trading Standards Officers (TSOs) prioritise their work at the initial inspection stage when dealing with subsequent enforcement action.

Drug action on anxiety models with special reference to serotonergic mechanisms

A study has been made of drugs acting at 5-HT receptors on animal models of anxiety. An elevated X-maze was used as a model of anxiety for rats and the actions of various ligands for the 5-HT receptor, and its subtypes, were examined in this model. 5-HT agonists, with varying affinities for the 5-HT receptor subtypes, were demonstrated to have anxiogenic-like activity. The 5-HT2 receptor antagonists ritanserin and ketanserin exhibited an anxiolytic-like profile. The new putatuve anxiolytics ipsapirone and buspirone, which are believed to be selective for 5-HT1 receptors, were also examined. The former had an anxiolytic profile whilst the latter was without effect. Antagonism studies showed the anxiogenic response to 8-hydroxy-2-(Di-n-propylamino)tetralin (8-OH-DPAT) to be antagonised by ipsapirone, pindolol, alprenolol and para-chlorophenylalanine, but not by diazepam, ritanserin, metoprolol, ICI118,551 or buspirone. To confirm some of the results obtained in the elevated X-maze the Social Interaction Test of anxiety was used. Results in this test mirrored the effects seen with the 5-HT agonists, ipsapirone and pindolol, whilst the 5-HT2 receptor antagonists were without effect. Studies using operant conflict models of anxiety produced marginal and varying results which appear to be in agreement with recent criticisms of such models. Finally, lesions of the dorsal raphe nucleus (DRN) were performed in order to investigate the mechanisms involved in the production of the anxiogenic response to 8-OH-DPAT. Overall the results lend support to the involvement of 5-HT, and more precisely 5-HT1, receptors in the manifestation of anxiety in such animal models.

A comparison of road accidents in developing countries with special reference to Jamaica

This research was originally undertaken to aid the Jamaican government and the World Bank in making funding decisions relative to improvement of road systems and traffic control in Jamaica. An investigation of the frequency and causes of road accidents and an evaluation of their impact on the Jamaican economy were carried out, and a model system which might be applied was developed. It is believed that the importance of road accident economic and manpower losses to the survival of developing countries, such as Jamaica, cannot be overemphasized. It is suggested that the World Bank, in cooperation with national governments, has a role to play in alleviating this serious problem. Data was collected from such organizations as the Jamaica Ministry of Construction, Police Department, the World Bank, and the World Health Organization. A variety of methodologies were utilized to organize this data in useful and understandable forms. The most important conclusion of this research is that solvable problems in road systems and in traffic control result in the unnecessary loss of useful citizens, in both developed and developing countries. However, a lack of information and understanding regarding the impact of high rates of road accident death and injury on the national economy and stability of a country results in an apparent lack of concern. Having little internal expertise in the field of road accident prevention, developing countries usually hire consultants to help them address this problem. In the case of Jamaica, this practice has resulted in distrust and hard feelings between the Jamaican authorities and major organizations involved in the field. Jamaican officials have found confusing the recommendations of most experts contracted to study traffic safety. The attempts of foreign consultants to utilize a technological approach (the use of coding systems and computers), methods which do not appear cost-effective for Jamaica, have resulted in the expenditure of limited funds for studies which offer no feasible approach to the problem. This funding limitation, which hampers research and road improvement, could be alleviated by such organizations as the World Bank. The causes of high accident rates are many, it was found. Formulation of a plan to address this serious problem must take into account the current failure to appreciate the impact of a high level of road accidents on national economy and stability, inability to find a feasible approach to the problem, and inadequate funding. Such a plan is discussed in detail in the main text of this research.