Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Microscopic theory of chemical-reaction rate

In this paper we deduce the formulae for rate-constant of microreaction with high resolving power of energy from the time-dependent Schrdinger equation for the general case when there is a depression on the reaetional potential surface (when the depression is zero in depth, the case is reduced to that of Eyring). Based on the assumption that Bolzmann distribution is appropriate to the description of reactants, the formula for the constant of macrorate in a form similar to Eyring's is deduced and the expression for the coefficient of transmission is given. When there is no depression on the reactional potential surface and the coefficient of transmission does not seriously depend upon temperature, it is reduced to Eyring's. Thus Eyring's is a special case of the present work.

Reference Points and Optimal Management in Stochastic Age-Structured Fisheries Models

The purpose of this article is to characterize dynamic optimal harvesting trajectories that maximize discounted utility assuming an age-structured population model, in the same line as Tahvonen (2009). The main novelty of our study is that uses as an age-structured population model the standard stochastic cohort framework applied in Virtual Population Analysis for fish stock assessment. This allows us to compare optimal harvesting in a discounted economic context with standard reference points used by fisheries agencies for long term management plans (e.g. Fmsy). Our main findings are the following. First, optimal steady state is characterized and sufficient conditions that guarantees its existence and uniqueness for the general case of n cohorts are shown. It is also proved that the optimal steady state coincides with the traditional target Fmsy when the utility function to be maximized is the yield and the discount rate is zero. Second, an algorithm to calculate the optimal path that easily drives the resource to the steady state is developed. And third, the algorithm is applied to the Northern Stock of hake. Results show that management plans based exclusively on traditional reference targets as Fmsy may drive fishery economic results far from the optimal.

Selectivity, pulse fishing and endogenous lifespan in Beverton-Holt models

Optimal management in a multi-cohort Beverton-Holt model with any number of age classes and imperfect selectivity is equivalent to finding the optimal fish lifespan by chosen fallow cycles. Optimal policy differs in two main ways from the optimal lifespan rule with perfect selectivity. First, weight gain is valued in terms of the whole population structure. Second, the cost of waiting is the interest rate adjusted for the increase in the pulse length. This point is especially relevant for assessing the role of selectivity. Imperfect selectivity reduces the optimal lifespan and the optimal pulse length. We illustrate our theoretical findings with a numerical example. Results obtained using global numerical methods select the optimal pulse length predicted by the optimal lifespan rule.

Mechanical properties and constitutive relationships of 30CrMnSiA steel heated at high rate

In this paper, the mechanical behavior of 30CrMnSiA steel after heating at a high rate are investigated experimentally and theoretically, including a detailed discussion of the effects of strain rate and temperature. Two constitutive models are presented to describe the mechanical response of this material after heating at a high rate, and verified by experimental results. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of generalised additive models to categorise continuous variables in clinical prediction

13 P.

Rate and Microstructure Effects on the Dynamics of Carbon Nanotube Foams

Soft hierarchical materials often present unique functional properties that are sensitive to the geometry and organization of their micro- and nano-structural features across different lengthscales. Carbon Nanotube (CNT) foams are hierarchical materials with fibrous morphology that are known for their remarkable physical, chemical and electrical properties. Their complex microstructure has led them to exhibit intriguing mechanical responses at different length-scales and in different loading regimes. Even though these materials have been studied for mechanical behavior over the past few years, their response at high-rate finite deformations and the influence of their microstructure on bulk mechanical behavior and energy dissipative characteristics remain elusive.

In this dissertation, we study the response of aligned CNT foams at the high strain-rate regime of 10² - 10⁴ s^-1. We investigate their bulk dynamic response and the fundamental deformation mechanisms at different lengthscales, and correlate them to the microstructural characteristics of the foams. We develop an experimental platform, with which to study the mechanics of CNT foams in high-rate deformations, that includes direct measurements of the strain and transmitted forces, and allows for a full field visualization of the sample’s deformation through high-speed microscopy.

We synthesize various CNT foams (e.g., vertically aligned CNT (VACNT) foams, helical CNT foams, micro-architectured VACNT foams and VACNT foams with microscale heterogeneities) and show that the bulk functional properties of these materials are highly tunable either by tailoring their microstructure during synthesis or by designing micro-architectures that exploit the principles of structural mechanics. We also develop numerical models to describe the bulk dynamic response using multiscale mass-spring models and identify the mechanical properties at length scales that are smaller than the sample height.

The ability to control the geometry of microstructural features, and their local interactions, allows the creation of novel hierarchical materials with desired functional properties. The fundamental understanding provided by this work on the key structure-function relations that govern the bulk response of CNT foams can be extended to other fibrous, soft and hierarchical materials. The findings can be used to design materials with tailored properties for different engineering applications, like vibration damping, impact mitigation and packaging.

Reference-growth rate – a simple and handy parameter summarizing the influence of environmental conditions

Abstract Environmental changes may have an impact on life conditions of the fish, e.g. food supply for the fish. The prevailing environmental conditions apply evenly to all age groups of one stock. Small fish have high growth rates, whereas large fish grow with low rates. But, it can be shown on the basis of the von Bertalanffy-growth model that it is sufficient to know only the growth rate of one single age group to compute the growth rates of all other age groups. The growth rate of a reference fish GRF (e.g. a fish with a body mass of 1 kg) was introduced as a reference growth describing the current food condition of all age groups of the stock. As an example a time series of the reference-growth rate of the northern cod stock (NAFO, 3K) was computed for the time span 1979 to 1999. For the northern cod stock it can be observed that environmental conditions caused growth rates below the long-term mean for seven years in a row. After a prolonged hunger period the fish stock collapsed in 1992 also by the impact of fisheries - and this was probably not a coincidence. Now, with the reference-growth rate GRF a simple and handy parameter was found to summarize the influence of the environmental conditions on growth and other derived models and therefore makes it easier to compute the influence of environmental changes within stock assessment. Zusammenfassung Veränderungen der Umwelt können Auswirkungen auf die Lebensbedingungen der Fische haben, z. B. auf das Nahrungsangebot der Fische. Die vorherrschenden Umgebungsbedingungen wirken gleichmäßig auf alle Altersgruppen eines Bestandes, wobei typischer Weise kleineFische hohe Wachstumsraten haben, während die großen Fische mit niedrigen Raten wachsen. Auf der Grundlage des von Bertalanffy-Wachstumsmodells kann gezeigt werden, dass es ausreicht, nur die Wachstumsrate von einer einzigen Altersgruppe zu kennen, um die Wachstumsraten von allen anderen Altersgruppen berechnen zu können. Die Wachstumsrate eines Referenz-Fisches (z.B. eines Fisches mit einer Körpermasse von 1 kg) wurde als Referenz-Wachstum GRF eingeführt, die den aktuellen Zustand des Nahrungsangebots füralle Altersgruppen des Bestandes beschreibt. Als Beispiel wurde einer Zeitreihe der Referenz-Wachstumsraten des nördlichen Kabeljaubestandes (NAFO, 3K) für die Zeitsraum 1979 bis 1999 berechnet. Für diesen Kabeljaubestand war zu beobachten, dass Umgebungsbedingungen für sieben Jahre in Folge Wachstumsraten unter dem langjährigen Mittelwert verursachten. Nach einer längeren Hungerperiode kollabierte dieser Fischbestand im Jahr 1992 auch durch den Einfluß der Fischerei - und dies war sicher kein Zufall. Jetzt, mit der Referenz-Wachstumsrate GRF, ist ein einfacher und handlicher Parameter gefunden, der es gestattet den Einfluss der Umweltbedingungen auf die Wachstumsbedingungen und andere davon abgeleitete Modelle zusammenzufassen. Dies macht es einfach, den Einfluss von Umweltveränderungen innerhalb der Bestandsabschätzungen zu berechnen.

I. Quantum mechanics of one-dimensional two-particle models. II. A quantum mechanical treatment of inelastic collisions

Part I

Solutions of Schrödinger’s equation for system of two particles bound in various stationary one-dimensional potential wells and repelling each other with a Coulomb force are obtained by the method of finite differences. The general properties of such systems are worked out in detail for the case of two electrons in an infinite square well. For small well widths (1-10 a.u.) the energy levels lie above those of the noninteresting particle model by as much as a factor of 4, although excitation energies are only half again as great. The analytical form of the solutions is obtained and it is shown that every eigenstate is doubly degenerate due to the “pathological” nature of the one-dimensional Coulomb potential. This degeneracy is verified numerically by the finite-difference method. The properties of the square-well system are compared with those of the free-electron and hard-sphere models; perturbation and variational treatments are also carried out using the hard-sphere Hamiltonian as a zeroth-order approximation. The lowest several finite-difference eigenvalues converge from below with decreasing mesh size to energies below those of the “best” linear variational function consisting of hard-sphere eigenfunctions. The finite-difference solutions in general yield expectation values and matrix elements as accurate as those obtained using the “best” variational function.

The system of two electrons in a parabolic well is also treated by finite differences. In this system it is possible to separate the center-of-mass motion and hence to effect a considerable numerical simplification. It is shown that the pathological one-dimensional Coulomb potential gives rise to doubly degenerate eigenstates for the parabolic well in exactly the same manner as for the infinite square well.

Part II

A general method of treating inelastic collisions quantum mechanically is developed and applied to several one-dimensional models. The formalism is first developed for nonreactive “vibrational” excitations of a bound system by an incident free particle. It is then extended to treat simple exchange reactions of the form A + BC →AB + C. The method consists essentially of finding a set of linearly independent solutions of the Schrödinger equation such that each solution of the set satisfies a distinct, yet arbitrary boundary condition specified in the asymptotic region. These linearly independent solutions are then combined to form a total scattering wavefunction having the correct asymptotic form. The method of finite differences is used to determine the linearly independent functions.

The theory is applied to the impulsive collision of a free particle with a particle bound in (1) an infinite square well and (2) a parabolic well. Calculated transition probabilities agree well with previously obtained values.

Several models for the exchange reaction involving three identical particles are also treated: (1) infinite-square-well potential surface, in which all three particles interact as hard spheres and each two-particle subsystem (i.e. BC and AB) is bound by an attractive infinite-square-well potential; (2) truncated parabolic potential surface, in which the two-particle subsystems are bound by a harmonic oscillator potential which becomes infinite for interparticle separations greater than a certain value; (3) parabolic (untruncated) surface. Although there are no published values with which to compare our reaction probabilities, several independent checks on internal consistency indicate that the results are reliable.

Small scale turbulence in high Karlovitz number premixed flames

The purpose of this thesis is to characterize the behavior of the smallest turbulent scales in high Karlovitz number (Ka) premixed flames. These scales are particularly important in the two-way coupling between turbulence and chemistry and better understanding of these scales will support future modeling efforts using large eddy simulations (LES). The smallest turbulent scales are studied by considering the vorticity vector, ω, and its transport equation.

Due to the complexity of turbulent combustion introduced by the wide range of length and time scales, the two-dimensional vortex-flame interaction is first studied as a simplified test case. Numerical and analytical techniques are used to discern the dominate transport terms and their effects on vorticity based on the initial size and strength of the vortex. This description of the effects of the flame on a vortex provides a foundation for investigating vorticity in turbulent combustion.

Subsequently, enstrophy, ω² = ω • ω, and its transport equation are investigated in premixed turbulent combustion. For this purpose, a series of direct numerical simulations (DNS) of premixed n-heptane/air flames are performed, the conditions of which span a wide range of unburnt Karlovitz numbers and turbulent Reynolds numbers. Theoretical scaling analysis along with the DNS results support that, at high Karlovitz number, enstrophy transport is controlled by the viscous dissipation and vortex stretching/production terms. As a result, vorticity scales throughout the flame with the inverse of the Kolmogorov time scale, τ_η, just as in homogeneous isotropic turbulence. As τ_η is only a function of the viscosity and dissipation rate, this supports the validity of Kolmogorov’s first similarity hypothesis for sufficiently high Ka numbers (Ka ≳ 100). These conclusions are in contrast to low Karlovitz number behavior, where dilatation and baroclinic torque have a significant impact on vorticity within the flame. Results are unaffected by the transport model, chemical model, turbulent Reynolds number, and lastly the physical configuration.

Next, the isotropy of vorticity is assessed. It is found that given a sufficiently large value of the Karlovitz number (Ka ≳ 100) the vorticity is isotropic. At lower Karlovitz numbers, anisotropy develops due to the effects of the flame on the vortex stretching/production term. In this case, the local dynamics of vorticity in the strain-rate tensor, S, eigenframe are altered by the flame. At sufficiently high Karlovitz numbers, the dynamics of vorticity in this eigenframe resemble that of homogeneous isotropic turbulence.

Combined, the results of this thesis support that both the magnitude and orientation of vorticity resemble the behavior of homogeneous isotropic turbulence, given a sufficiently high Karlovitz number (Ka ≳ 100). This supports the validity of Kolmogorov’s first similarity hypothesis and the hypothesis of local isotropy under these condition. However, dramatically different behavior is found at lower Karlovitz numbers. These conclusions provides/suggests directions for modeling high Karlovitz number premixed flames using LES. With more accurate models, the design of aircraft combustors and other combustion based devices may better mitigate the detrimental effects of combustion, from reducing CO₂ and soot production to increasing engine efficiency.

Digital Quantum Rabi and Dicke Models in Superconducting Circuits

We propose the analog-digital quantum simulation of the quantum Rabi and Dicke models using circuit quantum electrodynamics (QED). We find that all physical regimes, in particular those which are impossible to realize in typical cavity QED setups, can be simulated via unitary decomposition into digital steps. Furthermore, we show the emergence of the Dirac equation dynamics from the quantum Rabi model when the mode frequency vanishes. Finally, we analyze the feasibility of this proposal under realistic superconducting circuit scenarios.

Fecundity estimates for Maryland Striped Bass

Contemporary striped bass population modeling efforts on coastal stocks point to a reduced population fecundity in Chesapeake Bay being partially responsible for declining reproduction (Anonymous 1985; Boreman and Goodyear 1984). Fecundity values used in these models were based on earlier work by jackson and tiller (1952), lewis and Bonner (1966), Hollis (1967) and Holland and Yelverton (1973). An important feature to the Boreman and Goodyear (1985) model (FSIM) is an accurate determination of the fecundity weight regression equation used to determine the rate of egg deposition over time. Egg deposition models in turn can be used to determine how reproductive potential is changing over time in response to various management actions, i.e. reducing fishing mortality rates. thus it is imperative to follow population stock structure in the Bay system and to develop a contemporary fecundity relationship for striped bass. This report deals with the gonadal material collected in 1986 and 1987 from a coordinated Maryland field program. Samples were obtained from drift gill net collections during the spawning season from four localities: Potomac Estuary, Upper Bay, Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, and the Choptank Estuary (Figure 1).

Interactions of age-dependent mortality and selectivity functions in age-based stock assessment models

The natural mortality rate (M) of fish varies with size and age, although it is often assumed to be constant in stock assessments. Misspecification of M may bias important assessment quantities. We simulated fishery data, using an age-based population model, and then conducted stock assessments on the simulated data. Results were compared to known values. Misspecification of M had a negligible effect on the estimation of relative stock depletion; however, misspecification of M had a large effect on the estimation of parameters describing the stock recruitment relationship, age-specific selectivity, and catchability. If high M occurs in juvenile and old fish, but is misspecified in the assessment model, virgin biomass and catchability are often poorly estimated. In addition, stock recruitment relationships are often very difficult to estimate, and steepness values are commonly estimated at the upper bound (1.0) and overfishing limits tend to be biased low. Natural mortality can be estimated in assessment models if M is constant across ages or if selectivity is asymptotic. However if M is higher in old fish and selectivity is dome-shaped, M and the selectivity cannot both be adequately estimated because of strong interactions between M and selectivity.

Natural mortality rate, annual fecundity, and maturity at length for Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) from the northeastern Pacific Ocean

Mortality, fecundity, and size at maturity are important life history traits, and their interactions determine the evolution of life history strategies (Roff, 1992; Stearns, 1992; Charnov, 2002). These same traits are also important for population dynamics models (Hunter et al., 1992; Clark, 1999). It is increasingly important to accurately determine Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) life history traits and to correctly assess the status of its stocks because low recruitment or low biomass estimates have led to catch restrictions in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands (Ianelli et al.1), the Northeastern Arctic (Ådlandsvik et al., 2004), and the Northwest Atlantic (Bowering and Nedreaas, 2000).

Estimates of growth and comparisons of growth rates determined from length- and age-based models for populations of purple wrasse (Notolabrus fucicola)

Growth of a temperate reefa-ssociated fish, the purple wrasse (Notolabrus fucicola), was examined from two sites on the east coast of Tasmania by using age- and length-based models. Models based on the von Bertalanffy growth function, in the standard and a reparameterized form, were constructed by using otolith-derived age estimates. Growth trajectories from tag-recaptures were used to construct length-based growth models derived from the GROTAG model, in turn a reparameterization of the Fabens model. Likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) determined the optimal parameterization of the GROTAG model, including estimators of individual growth variability, seasonal growth, measurement error, and outliers for each data set. Growth models and parameter estimates were compared by bootstrap confidence intervals, LRTs, and randomization tests and plots of bootstrap parameter estimates. The relative merit of these methods for comparing models and parameters was evaluated; LRTs combined with bootstrapping and randomization tests provided the most insight into the relationships between parameter estimates. Significant differences in growth of purple wrasse were found between sites in both length- and age-based models. A significant difference in the peak growth season was found between sites, and a large difference in growth rate between sexes was found at one site with the use of length-based models.