Fish and habitat community assessments on North Carolina shipwrecks: potential sites for detecting climate change in the graveyard of the Atlantic

The Monitor National Marine Sanctuary (MNMS) was the nation’s first sanctuary, originally established in 1975 to protect the famous civil war ironclad shipwreck, the USS Monitor. Since 2008, sanctuary sponsored archeological research has branched out to include historically significant U-boats and World War II shipwrecks within the larger Graveyard of the Atlantic off the coast of North Carolina. These shipwrecks are not only important for their cultural value, but also as habitat for a wide diversity of fishes, invertebrates and algal species. Additionally, due to their unique location within an important area for biological productivity, the sanctuary and other culturally valuable shipwrecks within the Graveyard of the Atlantic are potential sites for examining community change. For this reason, from June 8-30, 2010, biological and ecological investigations were conducted at four World War II shipwrecks (Keshena, City of Atlanta, Dixie Arrow, EM Clark), as part of the MNMS 2010 Battle of the Atlantic (BOTA) research project. At each shipwreck site, fish community surveys were conducted and benthic photo-quadrats were collected to characterize the mobile conspicuous fish, smaller prey fish, and sessile invertebrate and algal communities. In addition, temperature sensors were placed at all four shipwrecks previously mentioned, as well as an additional shipwreck, the Manuela. The data, which establishes a baseline condition to use in future assessments, suggest strong differences in both the fish and benthic communities among the surveyed shipwrecks based on the oceanographic zone (depth). In order to establish these shipwrecks as sites for detecting community change it is suggested that a subset of locations across the shelf be selected and repeatedly sampled over time. In order to reduce variability within sites for both the benthic and fish communities, a significant number of surveys should be conducted at each location. This sampling strategy will account for the natural differences in community structure that exist across the shelf due to the oceanographic regime, and allow robust statistical analyses of community differences over time.

Recruitment as an evolving random process of aggregation and mortality

The dynamics of the survival of recruiting fish are analyzed as evolving random processes of aggregation and mortality. The analyses draw on recent advances in the physics of complex networks and, in particular, the scale-free degree distribution arising from growing random networks with preferential attachment of links to nodes. In this study simulations were conducted in which recruiting fish 1) were subjected to mortality by using alternative mortality encounter models and 2) aggregated according to random encounters (two schools randomly encountering one another join into a single school) or preferential attachment (the probability of a successful aggregation of two schools is proportional to the school sizes). The simulations started from either a “disaggregated” (all schools comprised a single fish) or an aggregated initial condition. Results showed the transition of the school-size distribution with preferential attachment evolving toward a scale-free school size distribution, whereas random attachment evolved toward an exponential distribution. Preferential attachment strategies performed better than random attachment strategies in terms of recruitment survival at time when mortality encounters were weighted toward schools rather than to individual fish. Mathematical models were developed whose solutions (either analytic or numerical) mimicked the simulation results. The resulting models included both Beverton-Holt and Ricker-like recruitment, which predict recruitment as a function of initial mean school size as well as initial stock size. Results suggest that school-size distributions during recruitment may provide information on recruitment processes. The models also provide a template for expanding both theoretical and empirical recruitment research.

Radiocarbon record of solar variability and Holocene climatic change in coastal southern California

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Pollen analysis and 5 radiocarbon dates for a 687-cm core provide a detailed chronology of environmental change for San Joaquin Marsh at the head of Newport Bay, Orange County, California. Sediment deposition kept pace with sea level rise during the mid-Holocene, but after 4500 years BP, sea water regularly reached the coring site, and salt marsh was the local vegetation. Brief periods of dominance by fresh-water vegetation 3800, 2800, 2300 and after 560 years BP correlate global cooling events and (except the 3800-year BP event) with carbon-14 production anomalies. The coincidence of climate change and carbon-14 anomalies support a causal connection with solar variability, but regardless of the causal mechanism(s) the delta-carbon-14 curves provide a chronology for global, high-frequency climatic change comparable to that of Milankovitch cyclicity for longer time scales.

Determining the role of linear and nonlinear interactions in records of climate change: possible solar influences in annual to century-scale records

Time series analysis methods have traditionally helped in identifying the role of various forcing mechanisms in influencing climate change. A challenge to understanding decadal and century-scale climate change has been that the linkages between climate changes and potential forcing mechanisms such as solar variability are often uncertain. However, most studies have focused on the role of climate forcing and climate response within a strictly linear framework. Nonlinear time series analysis procedures provide the opportunity to analyze the role of climate forcing and climate responses between different time scales of climate change. An example is provided by the possible nonlinear response of paleo-ENSO-scale climate changes as identified from coral records to forcing by the solar cycle at longer time scales.

High-resolution record of climate change in the Owens Lake Basin, California, for the period 52,500 to 12,500 YBP

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High-resolution oxygen-18 and total inorganic carbon (TIC) studies of cored sediments from the Owens Lake Basin, California, indicate that Owens Lake was hydrologically open (overflowing) most of the time between 52,500 and 12,500 carbon-14 YBP. ... The lack of a strong correspondence between North Atlantic climate records and the Owens Lake delta-oxygen-18 record has two possible explanations: (1) the sequence of large and abrupt climate change indicated in North Atlantic records is not global in scope and is largely confined to the North Atlantic and surrounding areas, or (2) Owens Lake is located in a part of the Great Basin that is relatively insensitive to the effects of climate perturbations recorded in the North Atlantic region.

Gaussian process change point models

We combine Bayesian online change point detection with Gaussian processes to create a nonparametric time series model which can handle change points. The model can be used to locate change points in an online manner; and, unlike other Bayesian online change point detection algorithms, is applicable when temporal correlations in a regime are expected. We show three variations on how to apply Gaussian processes in the change point context, each with their own advantages. We present methods to reduce the computational burden of these models and demonstrate it on several real world data sets. Copyright 2010 by the author(s)/owner(s).

The role of adaptive thermal comfort in the prediction of the thermal performance of a modern mixed-mode office building in the UK under climate change

Climate change is becoming a serious issue for the construction industry, since the time scales at which climate change takes place can be expected to show a true impact on the thermal performance of buildings and HVAC systems. In predicting this future building performance by means of building simulation, the underlying assumptions regarding thermal comfort conditions and the related heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) control set points become important. This article studies the thermal performance of a reference office building with mixedmode ventilation in the UK, using static and adaptive thermal approaches, for a series of time horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080). Results demonstrate the importance of the implementation of adaptive thermal comfort models, and underpin the case for its use in climate change impact studies. Adaptive thermal comfort can also be used by building designers to make buildings more resilient towards change. © 2010 International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA).

Learning feedforward commands to muscles using time-shifted sensory feedback

In adapting to changing forces in the mechanical environment, humans change the force being applied by the limb by reciprocal changes in the activation of antagonistic muscles. However, they also cocontract these muscles when interaction with the environment is mechanically unstable to increase the mechanical impedance of the limb. We have postulated that appropriate patterns of muscle activation could be learned using a simple scheme in which the naturally occurring stretch reflex is used as a template to adjust feedforward commands to muscles. Feedforward commands are modified iteratively by shifting a scaled version of the reflex response forward in time and adding it to the previous feedforward command. We show that such an algorithm can account for the principal features of changes in muscle activation observed when human subjects adapt to instabilities in the mechanical environment. © 2006.

Influence of cold storage time on the protein changes and fatty acids deterioration of (Rutilus frisi kutum) during frozen storage

The main aim of this research was to identify fatty acids composition of Caspian sea of White fish Rutilus frisi kutum tissue and their changes during one year cold storage (-18Ċ).The secondary aim was to determine the changes of moisture, ash, protein, fat, and to investigate the effects of storage time on peroxide, TBAi, FFA, and extractability of myofibrillar proteins of the fish tissue during one year cold storage (-18 Ċ). 10 samples of (Rutilus frisi kutum) were randomly collected from Anzali landings. The samples were frozen at -30 Ċ and kept in cold storage at -18Ċ for one year. According to time table, the samples were examined. The results showed that 27 fatty acids were identified. The unsaturated fatty acids (UFA) and saturated fatty acids (SFA) were 74/09 and 21/63 %, respectively, in fresh tissue. So that DHA (C22:6) oleic acid (C18:1c) had high amounts (15/07 ,20/57 ) among the UFA and palmitic acid (C16:0) was the most (13/09 %) among the SFA. The effects of freezing and cold storage on fish tissue showed that UFA and SFA contents have reached to 58/79 and 22/17 %, respectively, at the end of cold storage. It indicated that these compound change to each other during frozen storage. Also ω-3 and ω-6 series of fatty acids was 24/22 and 15/56% in fresh tissue, but their contents decreased to 8/68 and 5/11% at the end of period. Among the fatty acids C22:6, C18:1c and C16:0 had the most changes. The changes of fatty acids were significantly at 95% level expected for C18:0. Results showed that moisture, ash, protein, and fat contents were 75/9±0/03, 1/28±0/012, 21/8±0/2, and 4/1±0/01 % respectively, in fresh tissue. The moisture, ash, protein, and fat contents were 72/3±0/04, 1/83±0/05, 1/91±0/01 and 19/9±0/01 % respectively, at the end of storage period. Lipid damage was measured on the basis of free fatty acids (FFA), peroxide value (PV), and Thiobarbituric acid index (TBA-i). PV, TBARS and FFA concentration of frozen Caspian Sea white fish stored at -18 Ċ the temporal variation of these three variables were statistically significant (p<0.001). Results of White fish myofibrillar proteins showed aggregation of bound reduced for stored at 12 months. SDS-PAGE analysis revealed that, the intensity of the myosin heavy chain and actin bound was reduced with increasing storage time. SDS-PAGE patterns showed that myosin heavy chain was much more susceptible to hydrolysis than actin. Key words: Rutilus frisi kutum, frozen storage, ω-3, ω-6, protein myofibrillar

A matrix-calculation-based algorithm for numerical change propagation analysis

Engineering changes (ECs) are raised throughout the lifecycle of engineering products. A single change to one component produces knock-on effects on others necessitating additional changes. This change propagation significantly affects the development time and cost and determines the product's success. Predicting and managing such ECs is, thus, essential to companies. Some prediction tools model change propagation by algorithms, whereof a subgroup is numerical. Current numerical change propagation algorithms either do not account for the exclusion of cyclic propagation paths or are based on exhaustive searching methods. This paper presents a new matrix-calculation-based algorithm which can be applied directly to a numerical product model to analyze change propagation and support change prediction. The algorithm applies matrix multiplications on mutations of a given design structure matrix accounting for the exclusion of self-dependences and cyclic propagation paths and delivers the same results as the exhaustive search-based Trail Counting algorithm. Despite its factorial time complexity, the algorithm proves advantageous because of its straightforward matrix-based calculations which avoid exhaustive searching. Thereby, the algorithm can be implemented in established numerical programs such as Microsoft Excel which promise a wider application of the tools within and across companies along with better familiarity, usability, practicality, security, and robustness. © 1988-2012 IEEE.

Stall warning by blade pressure signature analysis

At low mass flow rates axial compressors suffer from flow instabilities leading to stall and surge. The inception process of these instabilities has been widely researched in the past - primarily with the aim of predicting or averting stall onset. In recent times, attention has shifted to conditions well before stall and has focussed on the level of irregularity in the blade passing signature in the rotor tip region. In general, this irregularity increases in intensity as the flow rate through the compressor is reduced. Attempts have been made to develop stall warning/avoidance procedures based on the level of the flow irregularity, but little effort has been made to characterise the irregularity, or to understand its underlying causes. Work on this project has revealed for the first time that the increase in irregularity in the blade passing signature is highly dependent on both tip-clearance and eccentricity. In a compressor with small, uniform, tip-clearance, the increase in blade passing irregularity which accompanies a reduction in flow rate will be modest. If the tip-clearance is enlarged, however, there will be a sharp rise in irregularity at all circumferential locations. In a compressor with eccentric tip-clearance, the increase in irregularity will only occur in the part of the annulus where the tip-clearance is largest, regardless of the average clearance level. In this paper, some attention is also given to the question of whether this irregularity observed in the pre-stall flow field is due to random turbulence, or to some form of coherent flow structure. Detailed flow measurements reveal that the latter is the case. From these findings, it is clear that a stall warning system based on blade passing signature irregularity will not be viable in an aero-engine where tip-clearance size and eccentricity change during each flight cycle and over the life of the compressor. Copyright © 2011 by ASME.

Stall Warning by Blade Pressure Signature Analysis

At low mass flow rates, axial compressors suffer from flow instabilities leading to stall and surge. The inception process of these instabilities has been widely researched in the past---primarily with the aim of predicting or averting stall onset. In recent times, attention has shifted to conditions well before stall and has focused on the level of irregularity in the blade passing signature in the rotor tip region. In general, the irregularity increases in intensity as the flow rate through the compressor is reduced. Attempts have been made to develop stall warning/avoidance procedures based on the level of flow irregularity, but little effort has been made to characterize the irregularity itself, or to understand its underlying cause. Work on this project has revealed for the first time that the increase in irregularity in the blade passing signature is highly dependent on both tip-clearance size and eccentricity. In a compressor with small, uniform, tip-clearance, the increase in blade passing irregularity that accompanies a reduction in flow rate will be modest. If the tip-clearance is enlarged, however, there will be a sharp rise in irregularity at all circumferential locations. In a compressor with eccentric tip-clearance, the increase in irregularity will only occur in the part of the annulus where the tip-clearance is largest, regardless of the average clearance level. In this paper, some attention is also given to the question of whether the irregularity observed in the prestall flow field is due to random turbulence or to some form of coherent flow structure. Detailed flow measurements reveal that the latter is the case. From these findings, it is clear that a stall warning system based on blade passing signature irregularity would be difficult to implement in an aero-engine where tip-clearance size and eccentricity change during each flight cycle and over the life of the compressor. © 2013 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.

Change propagation analysis in complex technical systems

Understanding how and why changes propagate during engineering design is critical because most products and systems emerge from predecessors and not through clean sheet design. This paper applies change propagation analysis methods and extends prior reasoning through examination of a large data set from industry including 41,500 change requests, spanning 8 years during the design of a complex sensor system. Different methods are used to analyze the data and the results are compared to each other and evaluated in the context of previous findings. In particular the networks of connected parent, child and sibling changes are resolved over time and mapped to 46 subsystem areas. A normalized change propagation index (CPI) is then developed, showing the relative strength of each area on the absorber-multiplier spectrum between -1 and +1. Multipliers send out more changes than they receive and are good candidates for more focused change management. Another interesting finding is the quantitative confirmation of the "ripple" change pattern. Unlike the earlier prediction, however, it was found that the peak of cyclical change activity occurred late in the program driven by systems integration and functional testing. Patterns emerged from the data and offer clear implications for technical change management approaches in system design. Copyright © 2007 by ASME.

Graduate education for leadership and organisational change in sustainable development

This paper reflects on the motivation, method and effectiveness of teaching leadership and organisational change to graduate engineers. Delivering progress towards sustainable development requires engineers who are aware of pressing global issues (such as resource depletion, climate change, social inequity and an interdependent economy) since it is they who deliver the goods and services that underpin society within these constraints. They also must understand how to implement change in the organisations within which they will work. In recognition of this fact the Cambridge University MPhil in Engineering for Sustainable Development has focussed on educating engineers to become effective change agents in their professional field with the confidence to challenge orthodoxy in adopting traditional engineering solutions. This paper reflects on ten years of delivering a special module to review how teaching change management and leadership aspects of the programme have evolved and progressed over that time. As the students who embark on this professional practice have often extensive experience as practising engineers and scientists, many have already learned the limitations of their technical background when solving complex problems. Students often join the course recognising their need to broaden their knowledge of relevant cross-disciplinary skills. The programme offers an opportunity for these early to mid-career engineers to explore an ethical and value-based approach to bringing about effective change in their particular sectors and organisations. This is achieved through action learning assignments in combination with reflections on the theory of change to enable students to equip themselves with tools that help them to be effective in making their professional and personal life choices. This paper draws on feedback gathered from students during their participation on the programme and augments this with alumni reflections gathered some years after their graduation. These professionals are able to look back on their experience of the taught components and reflect on how they have been able to apply this key learning in their subsequent careers. Copyright © 2012 September.

Sensitivity analysis of a time-delayed thermo-acoustic system via an adjoint-based approach

We apply adjoint-based sensitivity analysis to a time-delayed thermo-acoustic system: a Rijke tube containing a hot wire. We calculate how the growth rate and frequency of small oscillations about a base state are affected either by a generic passive control element in the system (the structural sensitivity analysis) or by a generic change to its base state (the base-state sensitivity analysis). We illustrate the structural sensitivity by calculating the effect of a second hot wire with a small heat-release parameter. In a single calculation, this shows how the second hot wire changes the growth rate and frequency of the small oscillations, as a function of its position in the tube. We then examine the components of the structural sensitivity in order to determine the passive control mechanism that has the strongest influence on the growth rate. We find that a force applied to the acoustic momentum equation in the opposite direction to the instantaneous velocity is the most stabilizing feedback mechanism. We also find that its effect is maximized when it is placed at the downstream end of the tube. This feedback mechanism could be supplied, for example, by an adiabatic mesh. We illustrate the base-state sensitivity by calculating the effects of small variations in the damping factor, the heat-release time-delay coefficient, the heat-release parameter, and the hot-wire location. The successful application of sensitivity analysis to thermo-acoustics opens up new possibilities for the passive control of thermo-acoustic oscillations by providing gradient information that can be combined with constrained optimization algorithms in order to reduce linear growth rates. © Cambridge University Press 2013.