Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter.

The classical approach to predicting the geographical extent of species invasions consists of training models in the native range and projecting them in distinct, potentially invasible areas. However, recent studies have demonstrated that this approach could be hampered by a change of the realized climatic niche, allowing invasive species to spread into habitats in the invaded ranges that are climatically distinct from those occupied in the native range. We propose an alternative approach that involves fitting models with pooled data from all ranges. We show that this pooled approach improves prediction of the extent of invasion of spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa) in North America on models based solely on the European native range. Furthermore, it performs equally well on models based on the invaded range, while ensuring the inclusion of areas with similar climate to the European niche, where the species is likely to spread further. We then compare projections from these models for 2080 under a severe climate warming scenario. Projections from the pooled models show fewer areas of intermediate climatic suitability than projections from the native or invaded range models, suggesting a better consensus among modelling techniques and reduced uncertainty.

Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges

Given the rate of projected environmental change for the 21st century, urgent adaptation and mitigation measures are required to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Even though increasing evidence shows that recent human-induced environmental changes have already triggered species' range shifts, changes in phenology and species' extinctions, accurate projections of species' responses to future environmental changes are more difficult to ascertain. This is problematic, since there is a growing awareness of the need to adopt proactive conservation planning measures using forecasts of species' responses to future environmental changes. There is a substantial body of literature describing and assessing the impacts of various scenarios of climate and land-use change on species' distributions. Model predictions include a wide range of assumptions and limitations that are widely acknowledged but compromise their use for developing reliable adaptation and mitigation strategies for biodiversity. Indeed, amongst the most used models, few, if any, explicitly deal with migration processes, the dynamics of population at the "trailing edge" of shifting populations, species' interactions and the interaction between the effects of climate and land-use. In this review, we propose two main avenues to progress the understanding and prediction of the different processes A occurring on the leading and trailing edge of the species' distribution in response to any global change phenomena. Deliberately focusing on plant species, we first explore the different ways to incorporate species' migration in the existing modelling approaches, given data and knowledge limitations and the dual effects of climate and land-use factors. Secondly, we explore the mechanisms and processes happening at the trailing edge of a shifting species' distribution and how to implement them into a modelling approach. We finally conclude this review with clear guidelines on how such modelling improvements will benefit conservation strategies in a changing world. (c) 2007 Rubel Foundation, ETH Zurich. Published by Elsevier GrnbH. All rights reserved.

Dynamic estimation of three-dimensional cerebrovascular deformation from rotational angiography

Purpose: The objective of this study is to investigate the feasibility of detecting and quantifying 3D cerebrovascular wall motion from a single 3D rotational x-ray angiography (3DRA) acquisition within a clinically acceptable time and computing from the estimated motion field for the further biomechanical modeling of the cerebrovascular wall. Methods: The whole motion cycle of the cerebral vasculature is modeled using a 4D B-spline transformation, which is estimated from a 4D to 2D + t image registration framework. The registration is performed by optimizing a single similarity metric between the entire 2D + t measured projection sequence and the corresponding forward projections of the deformed volume at their exact time instants. The joint use of two acceleration strategies, together with their implementation on graphics processing units, is also proposed so as to reach computation times close to clinical requirements. For further characterizing vessel wall properties, an approximation of the wall thickness changes is obtained through a strain calculation. Results: Evaluation on in silico and in vitro pulsating phantom aneurysms demonstrated an accurate estimation of wall motion curves. In general, the error was below 10% of the maximum pulsation, even in the situation when substantial inhomogeneous intensity pattern was present. Experiments on in vivo data provided realistic aneurysm and vessel wall motion estimates, whereas in regions where motion was neither visible nor anatomically possible, no motion was detected. The use of the acceleration strategies enabled completing the estimation process for one entire cycle in 5-10 min without degrading the overall performance. The strain map extracted from our motion estimation provided a realistic deformation measure of the vessel wall. Conclusions: The authors' technique has demonstrated that it can provide accurate and robust 4D estimates of cerebrovascular wall motion within a clinically acceptable time, although it has to be applied to a larger patient population prior to possible wide application to routine endovascular procedures. In particular, for the first time, this feasibility study has shown that in vivo cerebrovascular motion can be obtained intraprocedurally from a 3DRA acquisition. Results have also shown the potential of performing strain analysis using this imaging modality, thus making possible for the future modeling of biomechanical properties of the vascular wall.

Morphodynamic analysis of cerebral aneurysm pulsation from time-resolved rotational angiography

This paper presents a technique to estimate and model patient-specific pulsatility of cerebral aneurysms over onecardiac cycle, using 3D rotational X-ray angiography (3DRA) acquisitions. Aneurysm pulsation is modeled as a time varying-spline tensor field representing the deformation applied to a reference volume image, thus producing the instantaneousmorphology at each time point in the cardiac cycle. The estimated deformation is obtained by matching multiple simulated projections of the deforming volume to their corresponding original projections. A weighting scheme is introduced to account for the relevance of each original projection for the selected time point. The wide coverage of the projections, together with the weighting scheme, ensures motion consistency in all directions. The technique has been tested on digital and physical phantoms that are realistic and clinically relevant in terms of geometry, pulsation and imaging conditions. Results from digital phantomexperiments demonstrate that the proposed technique is able to recover subvoxel pulsation with an error lower than 10% of the maximum pulsation in most cases. The experiments with the physical phantom allowed demonstrating the feasibility of pulsation estimation as well as identifying different pulsation regions under clinical conditions.

Cyclic AMP induces differentiation in vitro of human melanoma cells.

Treating human melanoma lines with dibutyryl adenosine 3':5'-cyclic monophosphate (dbc AMP) resulted in morphologic changes associated with the altered expression of cell surface antigens. After treatment, cells developed long cellular projections characteristic of mature melanocytes and showed the presence of an increased number of Stage II premelanosomes. In addition, induction of melanin synthesis, detected as brown perinuclear pigmentation, was observed. The AMP further drastically reduced the growth rate of the five melanoma cell lines that were tested. The influence of dbc AMP was completely reversible 3 days after the agent was removed from the culture medium. The antigenic phenotype of the melanoma lines was compared before and after dbc AMP treatment. This was done with four monoclonal antibodies directed against major histocompatibility complex (MHC) Class I and II antigens and 11 monoclonal antibodies defining eight different melanoma-associated antigenic systems. Treatment with dbc AMP reduced the expression of human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-ABC antigens and beta-2-microglobulin in five of five melanoma lines. In the two HLA-DR-positive cell lines dbc AMP reduced the expression of this antigen in one line and enhanced it in the other. No induction of HLA-DR or HLA-DC antigens was observed in the Class II negative cell lines. Furthermore, dbc-AMP modulated the expression of the majority of the melanoma antigenic systems tested. The expression of a 90-kilodalton (KD) antigen, which has been found to be upregulated by interferon-gamma, was markedly decreased in all the five cell lines. A similar decrease in the expression of the high molecular weight proteoglycan-associated antigen (220-240 KD) was observed. The reduced expression of Class I and II MHC antigens as well as the altered expression of the melanoma-associated antigens studied were shown to be reversible after dbc AMP was removed. Our results collectively show that the monoclonal antibody-defined melanoma-associated molecules are linked to differentiation. They could provide useful tools for monitoring the maturation of melanomas in vivo induced by chemical agents or natural components favoring differentiation.

Oxytocin selectively gates fear responses through distinct outputs from the central amygdala.

Central amygdala (CeA) projections to hypothalamic and brain stem nuclei regulate the behavioral and physiological expression of fear, but it is unknown whether these different aspects of the fear response can be separately regulated by the CeA. We combined fluorescent retrograde tracing of CeA projections to nuclei that modulate fear-related freezing or cardiovascular responses with in vitro electrophysiological recordings and with in vivo monitoring of related behavioral and physiological parameters. CeA projections emerged from separate neuronal populations with different electrophysiological characteristics and different response properties to oxytocin. In vivo, oxytocin decreased freezing responses in fear-conditioned rats without affecting the cardiovascular response. Thus, neuropeptidergic signaling can modulate the CeA outputs through separate neuronal circuits and thereby individually steer the various aspects of the fear response.

The Standard Biplot

Biplots are graphical displays of data matrices based on the decomposition of a matrix as the product of two matrices. Elements of these two matrices are used as coordinates for the rows and columns of the data matrix, with an interpretation of the joint presentation that relies on the properties of the scalar product. Because the decomposition is not unique, there are several alternative ways to scale the row and column points of the biplot, which can cause confusion amongst users, especially when software packages are not united in their approach to this issue. We propose a new scaling of the solution, called the standard biplot, which applies equally well to a wide variety of analyses such as correspondence analysis, principal component analysis, log-ratio analysis and the graphical results of a discriminant analysis/MANOVA, in fact to any method based on the singular-value decomposition. The standard biplot also handles data matrices with widely different levels of inherent variance. Two concepts taken from correspondence analysis are important to this idea: the weighting of row and column points, and the contributions made by the points to the solution. In the standard biplot one set of points, usually the rows of the data matrix, optimally represent the positions of the cases or sample units, which are weighted and usually standardized in some way unless the matrix contains values that are comparable in their raw form. The other set of points, usually the columns, is represented in accordance with their contributions to the low-dimensional solution. As for any biplot, the projections of the row points onto vectors defined by the column points approximate the centred and (optionally) standardized data. The method is illustrated with several examples to demonstrate how the standard biplot copes in different situations to give a joint map which needs only one common scale on the principal axes, thus avoiding the problem of enlarging or contracting the scale of one set of points to make the biplot readable. The proposal also solves the problem in correspondence analysis of low-frequency categories that are located on the periphery of the map, giving the false impression that they are important.

Effects of pro-cholinergic treatment in patients suffering from spatial neglect.

Spatial neglect is a neurological condition characterized by a breakdown of spatial cognition contralateral to hemispheric damage. Deficits in spatial attention toward the contralesional side are considered to be central to this syndrome. Brain lesions typically involve right fronto-parietal cortices mediating attentional functions and subcortical connections in underlying white matter. Convergent findings from neuroimaging and behavioral studies in both animals and humans suggest that the cholinergic system might also be critically implicated in selective attention by modulating cortical function via widespread projections from the basal forebrain. Here we asked whether deficits in spatial attention associated with neglect could partly result from a cholinergic deafferentation of cortical areas subserving attentional functions, and whether such disturbances could be alleviated by pro-cholinergic therapy. We examined the effect of a single-dose transdermal nicotine treatment on spatial neglect in 10 stroke patients in a double-blind placebo-controlled protocol, using a standardized battery of neglect tests. Nicotine-induced systematic improvement on cancellation tasks and facilitated orienting to single visual targets, but had no significant effect on other tests. These results support a global effect of nicotine on attention and arousal, but no effect on other spatial mechanisms impaired in neglect.

Life expectancy with and without disability

Average life expectancy reached 78.8 years in Europe in 2002 (WHO 2003); most Europeans can, therefore, now anticipate living well past 75 years of age. Projections in industrialized nations suggest a continuing mortality decline in the next decades 1 while birth rates will probably continue to decline, resulting in further ageing of these nations. As those aged 80 years and over are the fastest expanding segment of the older population, concerns are growing about a potential dramatic increase in the number of disabled persons. The ageing of the population and the related increase in chronic disease burden have already had major impacts on most Western health-care systems, and will probably further affect these systems in the future as the baby-boom generation becomes older. For instance, in Switzerland, it is estimated that costs due to long-term care could more than double by 2030, from 6.5 to 15.3 billion SFr.2 Similar trends are expected in most European countries. As a consequence, postponement of the onset of disability, with a compression of functional dependency into a shorter period towards the end of life, is becoming a major goal. To successfully achieve this goal and improve the control of growing health and social care expenditures, various strategies of health promotion and disease prevention are developed and tested. Although several of these experiences had some effects on functional decline and institutional placement, they have not been shown to be cost-effective. Additional strategies are, therefore, needed to prevent or delay the onset of disability in older persons, reduce functional impairment, and face the challenge of an increasing disabled elderly population.

Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets, 2007

Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. The impacts of higher oil prices, a drought combined with an ethanol mandate, and removal of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) relative to baseline projections are also presented. The results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher feed costs, livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases. Retail meat, egg, and dairy prices will also increase. If oil prices are permanently $10-per-barrel higher than assumed in the baseline projections, U.S. ethanol will expand significantly. The magnitude of the expansion will depend on the future makeup of the U.S. automobile fleet. If sufficient demand for E-85 from flex-fuel vehicles is available, corn-based ethanol production is projected to increase to over 30 billion gallons per year with the higher oil prices. The direct effect of higher feed costs is that U.S. food prices would increase by a minimum of 1.1% over baseline levels. Results of a model of a 1988-type drought combined with a large mandate for continued ethanol production show sharply higher crop prices, a drop in livestock production, and higher food prices. Corn exports would drop significantly, and feed costs would rise. Wheat feed use would rise sharply. Taking additional land out of the CRP would lower crop prices in the short run. But because long-run corn prices are determined by ethanol prices and not by corn acreage, the long-run impacts on commodity prices and food prices of a smaller CRP are modest. Cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and biodiesel from soybeans do not become economically viable in the Corn Belt under any of the scenarios. This is so because high energy costs that increase the prices of biodiesel and switchgrass ethanol also increase the price of cornbased ethanol. So long as producers can choose between soybeans for biodiesel, switchgrass for ethanol, and corn for ethanol, they will choose to grow corn. Cellulosic ethanol from corn stover does not enter into any scenario because of the high cost of collecting and transporting corn stover over the large distances required to supply a commercial-sized ethanol facility.

Population by Age Group and % of Total Population, 2007

Estimates/projections for age 60+ for the state and for its counties and incorporated places. DEA also provides population estimates on poverty, race and ethnicity, and urban and rural for age 60+. This statistical information is obtained from numerous resources, including the State Data Center of Iowa, US Census Bureau, the Administration on Aging, and Iowa State University Census Services. "The Census Bureau uses the latest available estimates as starting points for population projections. Sometimes the user may see both an estimate and a projection available for the same reference date, which may not agree because they were produced at different times. In such cases, estimates are the preferred data." (Source: State Data Center)

Population by Age Group and Perecnt of Total Popluation by County, 2006

The Department of Elder Affairs maintains and provides population and demographic estimates/projections for age 60+ for the state and for its counties and incorporated places. DEA also provides population estimates on poverty, race and ethnicity, and urban and rural for age 60+. This statistical information is obtained from numerous resources, including the State Data Center of Iowa, US Census Bureau, the Administration on Aging, and Iowa State University Census Services. "The Census Bureau uses the latest available estimates as starting points for population projections. Sometimes the user may see both an estimate and a projection available for the same reference date, which may not agree because they were produced at different times. In such cases, estimates are the preferred data." (Source: State Data Center)

Différences régionales de l'incidence des fractures de la hanche dues à l'ostéoporose chez les femmes âgées : influence de la condition physique et de la nutrition

Résumé L'ostéoporose est une maladie systémique du squelette caractérisée par une fragilité osseuse augmentée avec pour conséquence une augmentation de la susceptibilité aux fractures. C'est actuellement un important problème de santé publique avec des conséquences majeures pour les systèmes de soins tant d'un point de vue médical que financier. Les projections mondiales prévoient une augmentation significative du nombre de fractures de la hanche d'ici 2050. Cette étude vise à analyser l'influence des apports nutritionnels par rapport à celle de la condition physique sur le risque de fracture ostéoporotique en reprenant les données évaluant la consommation de produits laitiers au sein du collectif de l'étude SEMOF («Evaluation suisse de méthodes de mesure du risque de fracture ostéoporotique»). Nous avons d'abord montré que les apports moyens en calcium des 7788 femmes âgées de 70 ans et plus ayant participé à l'étude sont inférieurs aux recommandations suisses et internationales. Des trois régions étudiées, la Suisse romande est celle où les apports quotidiens moyens en calcium et en protéines provenant des produits laitiers sont les plus faibles et où l'incidence des fractures de la hanche secondaires à l'ostéoporose est la plus élevée. Les apports en calcium et en protéines sont également plus élevés à la campagne par rapport à la ville alors que l'incidence des fractures de la hanche n'est pas significativement différente entre ville et campagne. De plus, nous avons montré que les apports quotidiens moyens en calcium et en protéines provenant des produits laitiers ne diffèrent pas significativement entre les femmes avec ou sans fracture de la hanche pendant le suivi. En revanche, la condition physique des femmes qui ont présenté une fracture de la hanche est significativement moins bonne. Sur la base de données anamnestiques concernant les facteurs de risque de chute et la mobilité, nous avons développé un score permettant d'identifier les femmes les plus à risque de chute. La condition physique de ces femmes, attestée par le test de la chaise et la mesure de la force de préhension est la moins bonne. Toutefois, leurs apports quotidiens moyens en calcium et en protéines provenant des produits laitiers ne diffèrent pas significativement par rapport aux femmes à faible risque de chute. En conclusion, le risque de fracture de la hanche liée à l'ostéoporose est plus élevé chez les femmes de plus de 70 ans vivant en Suisse romande que dans les deux autres régions linguistiques. Il est déterminé avant tout par le risque de chute et par la condition physique. Les apports en calcium et en protéines provenant des produits laitiers, tels que nous les avons évalués ne semblent pas déterminants.

A synopsis of the Hydrometra (Hemiptera, Heteroptera, Hydrometridae) from the Amazon River floodplain, Brazil, with redescription of Hydrometra argentina Berg

Hydrometra argentina Berg, 1879, H. caraiba Guérin-Méneville, 1857 and H. guianana Hungerford & Evans, 1934 are newly recorded in the Amazon River floodplain, Brazil. A redescription of H. argentina is also given, as the original description is incomplete. A key to the three known species occurring in this region is provided. Hydrometra argentina can be distinguished from H. caraiba and H. guianana by the body length smaller than 12.50 mm, anteoculus/postoculus ratio between 1.80 and 2.00, clypeus narrow and conical, metacetabulum with no circular pits, and projections on male abdominal sternite VI in the shape of simple spines. The other species can be distinguished mainly by the anteoculus/postoculus ratio and position of projections on male abdominal sternite VI.