Climate-driven expansion of blanket bogs in Britain during the Holocene

Blanket bog occupies approximately 6% of the area of the UK today. The Holocene expansion of this hyperoceanic biome has previously been explained as a consequence of Neolithic forest clearance. However, the present distribution of blanket bog in Great Britain can be predicted accurately with a simple model (PeatStash) based on summer temperature and moisture index thresholds, and the same model correctly predicts the highly disjunct distribution of blanket bog worldwide. This finding suggests that climate, rather than land-use history, controls blanket-bog distribution in the UK and everywhere else. We set out to test this hypothesis for blanket bogs in the UK using bioclimate envelope modelling compared with a database of peat initiation age estimates. We used both pollen-based reconstructions and climate model simulations of climate changes between the mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP, 6 ka) and modern climate to drive PeatStash and predict areas of blanket bog. We compiled data on the timing of blanketbog initiation, based on 228 age determinations at sites where peat directly overlies mineral soil. The model predicts that large areas of northern Britain would have had blanket bog by 6000 yr BP, and the area suitable for peat growth extended to the south after this time. A similar pattern is shown by the basal peat ages and new blanket bog appeared over a larger area during the late Holocene, the greatest expansion being in Ireland,Wales, and southwest England, as the model predicts. The expansion was driven by a summer cooling of about 2 °C, shown by both pollen-based reconstructions and climate models. The data show early Holocene (pre- Neolithic) blanket-bog initiation at over half of the sites in the core areas of Scotland and northern England. The temporal patterns and concurrence of the bioclimate model predictions and initiation data suggest that climate change provides a parsimonious explanation for the early Holocene distribution and later expansion of blanket bogs in the UK, and it is not necessary to invoke anthropogenic activity as a driver of this major landscape change.

Evaluation of a modern-analogue methodology for reconstructing Australian palaeoclimate from pollen

Quantitative palaeoclimate reconstructions are widely used to evaluate climatemodel performance. Here, as part of an effort to provide such a data set for Australia, we examine the impact of analytical decisions and sampling assumptions on modern-analogue reconstructions using a continent-wide pollen data set. There is a high degree of correlation between temperature variables in the modern climate of Australia, but there is sufficient orthogonality in the variations of precipitation, summer and winter temperature and plant–available moisture to allow independent reconstructions of these four variables to be made. The method of analogue selection does not affect the reconstructions, although bootstrap resampling provides a more reliable technique for obtaining robust measures of uncertainty. The number of analogues used affects the quality of the reconstructions: the most robust reconstructions are obtained using 5 analogues. The quality of reconstructions based on post-1850 CE pollen samples differ little from those using samples from between 1450 and 1849 CE, showing that European post settlement modification of vegetation has no impact on the fidelity of the reconstructions although it substantially increases the availability of potential analogues. Reconstructions based on core top samples are more realistic than those using surface samples, but only using core top samples would substantially reduce the number of available analogues and therefore increases the uncertainty of the reconstructions. Spatial and/or temporal averaging of pollen assemblages prior to analysis negatively affects the subsequent reconstructions for some variables and increases the associated uncertainties. In addition, the quality of the reconstructions is affected by the degree of spatial smoothing of the original climate data, with the best reconstructions obtained using climate data froma 0.5° resolution grid, which corresponds to the typical size of the pollen catchment. This study provides a methodology that can be used to provide reliable palaeoclimate reconstructions for Australia, which will fill in a major gap in the data sets used to evaluate climate models.

Late Quaternary environmental change in the interior South American tropics: new insight from leaf wax stable isotopes

Stable isotope analysis of leaf waxes in a sediment core from Laguna La Gaiba, a shallow lake located at the Bolivian margin of the Pantanal wetlands, provides new perspective on vegetation and climate change in the lowland interior tropics of South America over the past 40,000 years. The carbon isotopic compositions (δ13C) of long-chain n-alkanes reveal large shifts between C3-and C4-dominated vegetation communities since the last glacial period, consistent with landscape reconstructions generated with pollen data from the same sediment core. Leaf wax δ13C values during the last glacial period reflect an open landscape composed of C4grasses and C3herbs from 41–20ka. A peak in C4abundance during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21ka) suggests drier or more seasonal conditions relative to the earlier glacial period, while the development of a C3-dominated forest community after 20 ka points to increased humidity during the last deglaciation. Within the Holocene, large changes in the abundance of C4 vegetation indicate a transition from drier or more seasonal conditions during the early/mid-Holocene to wetter conditions in the late Holocene coincident with increasing austral summer insolation. Strong negative correlations between leaf wax δ13C and δD values over the entire record indicate that the majority of variability in leaf wax δD at this site can be explained by variability in the magnitude of biosynthetic fractionation by different vegetation types rather than changes in meteoric water δD signatures. However, positive δD deviations from the observed δ13C–δD trends are consistent with more enriched source water and drier or more seasonal conditions during the early/mid-Holocene and LGM. Overall, our record adds to evidence of varying influence of glacial boundary conditions and orbital forcing on South American Summer Monsoon precipitation in different regions of the South American tropics. Moreover, the relationships between leaf wax stable isotopes and pollen data observed at this site underscore the complementary nature of pollen and leaf wax δ13C data for reconstructing past vegetation changes and the potentially large effects of such changes on leaf wax δD signatures.

Reconstructing paleosalinity from δ18O: coupled model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum, Last Interglacial and Late Holocene

Reconstructions of salinity are used to diagnose changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean circulation. A widely used method of determining past salinity uses oxygen isotope (δOw) residuals after the extraction of the global ice volume and temperature components. This method relies on a constant relationship between δOw and salinity throughout time. Here we use the isotope-enabled fully coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) HadCM3 to test the application of spatially and time-independent relationships in the reconstruction of past ocean salinity. Simulations of the Late Holocene (LH), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Last Interglacial (LIG) climates are performed and benchmarked against existing compilations of stable oxygen isotopes in carbonates (δOc), which primarily reflect δOw and temperature. We find that HadCM3 produces an accurate representation of the surface ocean δOc distribution for the LH and LGM. Our simulations show considerable variability in spatial and temporal δOw-salinity relationships. Spatial gradients are generally shallower but within ∼50% of the actual simulated LH to LGM and LH to LIG temporal gradients and temporal gradients calculated from multi-decadal variability are generally shallower than both spatial and actual simulated gradients. The largest sources of uncertainty in salinity reconstructions are found to be caused by changes in regional freshwater budgets, ocean circulation, and sea ice regimes. These can cause errors in salinity estimates exceeding 4 psu. Our results suggest that paleosalinity reconstructions in the South Atlantic, Indian and Tropical Pacific Oceans should be most robust, since these regions exhibit relatively constant δOw-salinity relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Largest uncertainties will affect North Atlantic and high latitude paleosalinity reconstructions. Finally, the results show that it is difficult to generate reliable salinity estimates for regions of dynamic oceanography, such as the North Atlantic, without additional constraints.

Seasonality of westerly moisture transport in the East Asian summer monsoon and its implications for interpreting precipitation δ18O

East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall impacts the world's most populous regions. Accurate EASM rainfall prediction necessitates robust paleoclimate reconstructions from proxy data and quantitative linkage to modern climatic conditions. Many precisely dated oxygen isotope records from Chinese stalagmites have been interpreted as directly reflecting past EASM rainfall amount variability, but recent research suggests that such records instead integrate multiple hydroclimatic processes. Using a Lagrangian precipitation moisture source diagnostic, we demonstrate that EASM rainfall is primarily derived from the Indian Ocean. Conversely, Pacific Ocean moisture export peaks during winter, and the moisture uptake area does not differ significantly between summer and winter and is thus a minor contributor to monsoonal precipitation. Our results are substantiated by an accurate reproduction of summer and winter spatial rainfall distributions across China. We also correlate modern EASM rainfall oxygen isotope ratios with instrumental rainfall amount and our moisture source data. This analysis reveals that the strength of the source effect is geographically variable, and differences in atmospheric moisture transport may significantly impact the isotopic signature of EASM rainfall at the Hulu, Dongge, and Wanxiang Cave sites. These results improve our ability to isolate the rainfall amount signal in paleomonsoon reconstructions and indicate that precipitation across central and eastern China will directly respond to variability in Indian Ocean moisture supply.

Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest

South American seasonally-dry tropical forests (SDTF) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12,000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8,000 and 7,000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined, but severe regional droughts persisted through the mid-Holocene, SDTF, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTF are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime.

Triple isotope (δD, δ17O, δ18O) study on precipitation, drip water and speleothem fluid inclusions for a central European cave (NW Switzerland)

Deuterium (dD) and oxygen (d18O) isotopes are powerful tracers of the hydrological cycle and have been extensively used for paleoclimate reconstructions as they can provide information on past precipitation, temperature and atmospheric circulation. More recently, the use of 17Oexcess derived from precise measurement of d17O and d18O gives new and additional insights in tracing the hydrological cycle whereas uncertainties surround this proxy. However, 17Oexcess could provide additional information on the atmospheric conditions at the moisture source as well as about fractionations associated with transport and site processes. In this paper we trace water stable isotopes (dD, d17O and d18O) along their path from precipitation to cave drip water and finally to speleothem fluid inclusions for Milandre cave in northwestern Switzerland. A two year-long daily resolved precipitation isotope record close to the cave site is compared to collected cave drip water (3 months average resolution) and fluid inclusions of modern and Holocene stalagmites. Amount weighted mean dD, d18O and d17O are �71.0‰, �9.9‰, �5.2‰ for precipitation, �60.3‰, �8.7‰, �4.6‰ for cave drip water and �61.3‰, �8.3‰, �4.7‰ for recent fluid inclusions respectively. Second order parameters have also been derived in precipitation and drip water and present similar values with 18 per meg for 17Oexcess whereas d-excess is 1.5‰ more negative in drip water. Furthermore, the atmospheric signal is shifted towards enriched values in the drip water and fluid inclusions (D of ~ þ 10‰ for dD). The isotopic composition of cave drip water exhibits a weak seasonal signal which is shifted by around 8e10 months (groundwater residence time) when compared to the precipitation. Moreover, we carried out the first d17O measurement in speleothem fluid inclusions, as well as the first comparison of the d17O behaviour from the meteoric water to the fluid inclusions entrapment in speleothems. This study on precipitation, drip water and fluid inclusions will be used as a speleothem proxy calibration for Milandre cave in order to reconstruct paleotemperatures and moisture source variations for Western Central Europe.

Climate variability and socio-environmental changes in the northern Aegean (NE Mediterranean) during the last 1500 years

We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multidecadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 �C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ~2 �C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 АD ‘unknown’ and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

PMIP4-CMIP6: the contribution of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to CMIP6

The goal of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to changes in different climate forcings and to feedbacks. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impacts of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art models simulate climate changes. Palaeoclimate states are radically different from those of the recent past documented by the instrumental record and thus provide an out-of-sample test of the models used for future climate projections and a way to assess whether they have the correct sensitivity to forcings and feedbacks. Five distinctly different periods have been selected as focus for the core palaeoclimate experiments that are designed to contribute to the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). This manuscript describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments, with a focus upon their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP as well as the benefits of common analyses of the models across multiple climate states. It also describes the information needed to document each experiment and the model outputs required for analysis and benchmarking.

Immunohistochemical, tomographic and histological study on onlay bone graft remodeling. Part II: calvarial bone

Objectives Little information is available on the molecular events that occur during graft incorporation over time. The calvarial bone (Cb) grafts have been reported to produce greater responses compared with other donor regions in maxillofacial reconstructions, but the scientific evidences for this are still lacking. The objectives of this study are (1) to study the morphological pattern of Cb onlay bone grafts and compare them with the biological events through immunohistochemical responses and (2) to establish the effects of perforations in maintaining the volume and bone density of the receptor bed. Material and methods Sixty New Zealand White rabbits were submitted to Cb onlay bone grafts on the mandible. In 30 rabbits, the receptor bed was perforated (perforated group), while for the remaining animals the bed was kept intact (non-perforated group). Six animals from each group were sacrificed at 5, 7, 10, 20 and 60 days after surgery. Histological sections from the grafted area were prepared for immunohistochemical and histological analyses. Immuno-labeling was found for proteins Osteoprotegerin (OPG), receptor activator of nuclear factor-kappa beta ligand (RANKL), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), osteopontin (OPN), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP), Type I collagen (COL I) and osteocalcin (OC). The tomography examination [computerized tomography (CT) scan] was conducted just after surgery and at the sacrifice. Results The histological findings revealed that the perforations contributed to higher bone deposition during the initial stages at the graft-receptor bed interface, accelerating the graft incorporation process. The results of the CT scan showed lower resorption for the perforated group (P < 0.05), and both groups showed high bone density rates at 60 days. This set of evidences is corroborated by the immunohistochemical outcomes indicating that proteins associated with revascularization and osteogenesis (VEGF, OPN, TRAP and ALP) were found in higher levels in the perforated group. Conclusions These findings indicate that the bone volume of calvarial grafts is better maintained when the receptor bed is perforated, probably resulting from more effective graft revascularization and greater bone deposition. The process of bone resorption peaked between 20 and 60 days post-operatively in both groups although significantly less in the perforated group. To cite this article:Pedrosa Jr WF, Okamoto R, Faria PEP, Arnez MFM, Xavier SP, Salata LA. Immunohistochemical, tomographic and histological study on onlay bone grafts remodeling. Part II: calvarial bone.Clin. Oral Impl. Res. 20, 2009; 1254-1264.doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0501.2009.01747.x.

Outcome Analysis of Immediate and Delayed Conservative Breast Surgery Reconstruction With Mastopexy and Reduction Mammaplasty Techniques

Background: Bilateral mammaplasty or mastopexy is frequently used for oncoplastic objectives. However, little information has been available regarding outcome following immediate and delayed reconstruction. Method: Patients were divided into Group I (immediate reconstruction) and Group II (delayed reconstruction). Retrospective review was performed to compare complications, length of hospital stay, revision surgeries, and satisfaction. The associations between the complications with potential risk factors (timing, age, body mass index, smoking, and comorbid medical conditions) were analyzed. Results: There were a total of 144 patients with a mean follow-up of 47 months. Of the 106 patients in Group I, complications occurred in 24 (22.6%), skin necrosis was observed in 7.5%, fat necrosis in 5.6%, and 6.6% patients developed local recurrence. Mean period of hospitalization was 1.89 days. Of the 38 patients of the Group II, complications occurred in 12 (31.5%), skin necrosis was observed in 7 (18.4%), fat necrosis in 4 (10.5%), and 5.2% patients developed local recurrence. Mean period of hospitalization was 1.35 days. Increased length of hospital stay greater than 1 day (P < 0.001) and the number of revision surgeries (P = 0.043) were associated with the timing of the reconstruction. In univariate analysis, no difference between groups was found with respect to complication incidence (P = 0.275); however, after adjusting for other risk factors, the probability of complications tend to be higher for Group II (OR = 2.65; 95% confidence interval - 1.01-7.00; P = 0.049). Conclusions: On the basis of the results of our study, the probability of complications tends to be higher for delayed reconstructions, and it is demonstrated that obesity and smoking are risk factors for complications. Ultimately, these data may facilitate the provision of individualized risk information for shared medical decision-making.

Immediate conservative breast surgery reconstruction with perforator flaps: New challenges in the era of partial mastectomy reconstruction?

Introduction: Although the use of local flaps in conservative breast surgery (CBS) reconstruction is a reliable technique, little information has been available regarding outcome following the use of perforator flaps. The purpose of this study is to analyze the feasibility, surgical planning and outcome following CBS reconstruction with intercostal artery perforator (ICAP) flap. Patients/methods: Thirteen patients underwent CBS reconstructions with an ICAP flap. These flaps were raised from adjacent tissue located on the lateral and thoracic region and based on perforators originating from the costal and muscular segment of the intercostal vessels. The technique was indicated in patients with small/moderate volume breasts. Results: Mean time of follow-up was 32 months. Flap complications were evaluated and information on patient satisfaction were collected. 61.5 percent had tumors located in the lower-outer quadrants and 69.2 percent had tumors measuring 2 cm or less (T1). Complications occurred in 3 patients (23%), including wound dehiscence in 2 patients and fat necrosis in one. All cases were treated by conservative approach with a good result. No flap loss or wound infection were reported. 90 percent were either satisfied or very satisfied with their result. Conclusion: The ICAP flap is a reliable technique for immediate CBS reconstruction. The technique is advantageous because it does not require the use of muscle transfer, with minimum donor site morbidity. Success depends on patient selection, coordinated planning with the oncological surgeon and careful intra-operative management. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimizing the nipple-areola sparing mastectomy with double concentric periareolar incision and biodimensional expander-implant reconstruction: Aesthetic and technical refinements

Although the biodimensional anatomical expander-implant system (BEIS) is a reliable technique, little information has been available regarding outcome following nipple-areola sparing mastectomy (NSM). To perform the resection of glandular tissue, while improving the surgical access and maintaining the nipple-areola vascularization we have developed a new approach for NSM based on the double concentric periareolar incision (DCPI). The purpose of this study is to analyze the feasibility, surgical planning and its outcome following NSM. 18 patients underwent NSM reconstructions. Mean time of follow-up was 29 months. The technique was indicated in patients with small/moderate volume breasts. Flap complications were evaluated and information on aesthetic results and patient satisfaction were collected. 83.3% had tumors measuring 2 cm or less (T1) and 72.1% were stage 0 and 1. All patients presented peripherally tumors located (at least 5 cm from the nipple). Skin complications occurred in 11.1%. One patient (5.5%) presented small skin necrosis and a wound dehiscence was observed in one patient (5.5%). The aesthetic result was good/very good in 94.4 percent and the majority of patients were very satisfied/satisfied. No local recurrences were observed. All complications except one were treated by a conservative approach. DCPI-BEIS is a simple and reliable technique for NSM reconstruction. The success depends on patient selection, coordinated planning with the oncologic surgeon and careful intra-operative and post-operative management. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tomographic Simulations of accretion disks in cataclysmic variables - Flickering and wind

Both continuum and emission line flickering are phenomena directly associated with the mass-accretion process. In this work we simulated accretion-disk Doppler maps, including the effects of winds and flickering flares. Synthetic flickering Doppler maps were calculated and the effect of the flickering parameters on the maps was explored. Jets and winds occur in many astrophysical objects where accretion disks are present. Jets are generally absent among the cataclysmic variables (CVs), but there is evidence of mass loss by wind in many objects. CVs are ideal objects to study accretion disks, and consequently to study the wind associated with these disks. We also present simulations of accretion disks, including the presence of a wind with orbital phase resolution. Synthetic Ha line profiles in the optical region were obtained and their corresponding Doppler maps were calculated. The effect of the wind simulation parameters on the wind line profiles was also explored. From this study we verified that optically thick lines and/or emission by diffuse material into the primary Roche lobe are necessary to generate single peaked line profiles, often seen in CVs. The future accounting of these effects is suggested for interpreting Doppler tomography reconstructions.