Climate change impacts on portuguese energy system in 2050

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, perfil Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

Assessment of climate change statistical downscaling methods: Application and comparison of two statistical methods to a single site in Lisbon

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente

A trader portfolio optimization of bilateral contracts in electricity retail markets

Electricity markets are systems for effecting the purchase and sale of electricity using supply and demand to set energy prices. Two major market models are often distinguished: pools and bilateral contracts. Pool prices tend to change quickly and variations are usually highly unpredictable. In this way, market participants often enter into bilateral contracts to hedge against pool price volatility. This article addresses the challenge of optimizing the portfolio of clients managed by trader agents. Typically, traders buy energy in day-ahead markets and sell it to a set of target clients, by negotiating bilateral contracts involving three-rate tariffs. Traders sell energy by considering the prices of a reference week and five different types of clients. They analyze several tariffs and determine the best share of customers, i.e., the share that maximizes profit. © 2014 IEEE.

Hospitalization due to drug use did not change after a decade of the Psychiatric Reform

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To investigate whether the psychiatric hospitalization rates due to use of psychoactive substances and average time of hospitalization suffered any changes after the first decade of effective implementation of the psychiatric reform in Brazil. METHODS This article examines the evolution of hospitalizations due to disorders arising from the use of alcohol or other substances in the state of Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil, from 2000 to 2012. This is an ecological, time-series study, which uses data from admissions obtained by the Informatics Service of the Brazilian Unified Health System. Hospitalization rates by 100,000 inhabitants and average time of occupancy of beds were estimated. Coefficients of variation of these rates were estimated by Poisson Regression. RESULTS The total and male hospitalization rates did not vary (p = 0.056 and p = 0.244, respectively). We observed an increase of 3.0% for the female sex (p = 0.049). We did not observe any significant variation for occupancy time of beds. CONCLUSIONS The deployment of services triggered by the Brazilian psychiatric reform was not accompanied by a reduction of hospitalization rates or mean occupancy time of hospitalized patients during this first decade of implementation of the reform.

Maximum-revenue tariff with different roles in a price-setting competition

Published also at Lecture Notes in Engineering and Computer Science

Land use / land cover change detection: an object oriented approach, Münster, Germany

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Urban land use change analysis and modelling: a case study of Setubal-Sesimbra, Portugal

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case Study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

Desirable role in a price-setting international mixed duopoly

In this paper, we study the order of moves in a mixed international duopoly for differentiated goods, where firms choose whether to set prices sequentially or simultaneously. We discuss the desirable role of the public firm by comparing welfare among three games. We find that, in the three possible roles, the domestic public firm put a lower price, and then produces more than the foreign private firm.

Urban change monitoring using GIS and remote sensing tools in Kathmandu valley (Nepal)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Land use/ land cover change and its impact on soil erosion process in Begnas Tal Rupa Tal watershed using geospatial tools, Kaski district, Nepal

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Human and climatic change impact modelling on the habitat suitability for the chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes ellioti) – Case study: The proposed Mount Cameroon National Park

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Mensagens para a adesão da população pediátrica aos exames de ressonância magnética: aplicação do modelo Perceived Behavioral Change

Segundo o modelo de mudança de comportamento [Perceived Behavioral Change (PBC)], proposto por Thus Ajzen e aplicado pelo Centro de Programas de Comunicação, nos EUA, a adesão das crianças aos exames de ressonância magnética (RM) poderá ser facilitada através da aplicação de estratégias, como o conhecimento prévio do exame pelas crianças, pelos cuidadores ou ambos. Com este estudo pretendeu-se identificar critérios e boas práticas na produção de informação relativa ao exame de RM, dirigida à população pediátrica.

Ground Vibrations Induced by High-Speed Trains in Regions with Sudden Foundation Stiffness Change

In this paper analytical transient solutions of dynamic response of one-dimensional systems with sudden change of foundation stiffness are derived. In more details, cantilever dynamic response, expressed in terms of vertical displacement, is extended to account for elastic foundation and then two cantilever solutions, corresponding to beams clamped on left and right hand side, with different value of Winkler constant are connected together by continuity conditions. The internal forces, as the unknowns, can be introduced by the same values in both clamped beam solutions and solved. Assumption about time variation of internal forces at the section of discontinuity must be adopted and originally analytical solution will have to include numerical procedure.