Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Pin guidance of reconstruction plate contour: an expanded role of external fixation

This article presents a modification of intraoperative external fixation for mandibular reconstruction with free tissue flaps. This technique is indicated when preregistration of the reconstruction plate is not possible due to transmandibular tumor extension. Once standard external fixation has been carried out and prior to segmental mandibulectomy, additional pins are fixed to the connecting rod that delineate the mandibular contour in three-dimensional (3D) space. Following mandibulectomy, these pins allow accurate contouring of the reconstruction plate and improved restoration of mandibular contour, projection, and dental occlusion. A step-by-step description of the technique using models and intraoperative photos is presented. This method of mandibular reconstruction is a simple and time-effective alternative to intraoperative computer navigation and 3D modeling in select cases of oral carcinoma where tumor infiltration of the outer mandibular cortex precludes prebending of the reconstruction plates.

Subjective mental time: the functional architecture of projecting the self to past and future.

Abstract Human experience takes place in the line of mental time (MT) created through 'self-projection' of oneself to different time-points in the past or future. Here we manipulated self-projection in MT not only with respect to one's life events but also with respect to one's faces from different past and future time-points. Behavioural and event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging activity showed three independent effects characterized by (i) similarity between past recollection and future imagination, (ii) facilitation of judgements related to the future as compared with the past, and (iii) facilitation of judgements related to time-points distant from the present. These effects were found with respect to faces and events, and also suggest that brain mechanisms of MT are independent of whether actual life episodes have to be re-experienced or pre-experienced, recruiting a common cerebral network including the anteromedial temporal, posterior parietal, inferior frontal, temporo-parietal and insular cortices. These behavioural and neural data suggest that self-projection in time is a fundamental aspect of MT, relying on neural structures encoding memory, mental imagery and self.

Gadolinium-enhanced pulmonary magnetic resonance angiography in the diagnosis of acute pulmonary embolism: a prospective study on 48 patients.

OBJECTIVE: Gadolinium-enhanced pulmonary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) can be an option in patients with a history of previous adverse reaction to iodinated contrast material and renal insufficiency. Radiation is also avoided. The aim of this study is to prospectively compare the diagnostic value of MRA with that of a diagnostic strategy, taking into account catheter angiography, computed tomography angiography (CTA), and lung scintigraphy [ventilation-perfusion (VQ)]. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Magnetic resonance angiography was done in 48 patients with clinically suspected pulmonary embolism (PE) using fast gradient echo coronal acquisition with gadolinium. Interpretation was done with native coronal images and multiplanar maximum intensity projection reconstructions. Results were compared to catheter angiography (n=15), CTA (n=34), VQ (n=45), as well as 6-12 months clinical follow-ups, according to a sequenced reference tree. RESULTS: The final diagnosis of PE was retained in 11 patients (23%). There were two false negatives and no false positive results with MRA. Computed tomography angiography resulted in no false negatives or false positives. Magnetic resonance angiography had a sensitivity of 82% and a specificity of 100%. CONCLUSION: In our study, pulmonary MRA had a sensitivity of 82% and a specificity of 100% for the diagnosis of PE, with slightly less sensitivity than CTA. In the diagnostic algorithm of PE, pulmonary MRA should be considered as an alternative to CTA when iodine contrast injection or radiation is a significant matter.

Study of OSEM with different subsets in grating-based X-ray differential phase-contrast imaging.

Impressive developments in X-ray imaging are associated with X-ray phase contrast computed tomography based on grating interferometry, a technique that provides increased contrast compared with conventional absorption-based imaging. A new "single-step" method capable of separating phase information from other contributions has been recently proposed. This approach not only simplifies data-acquisition procedures, but, compared with the existing phase step approach, significantly reduces the dose delivered to a sample. However, the image reconstruction procedure is more demanding than for traditional methods and new algorithms have to be developed to take advantage of the "single-step" method. In the work discussed in this paper, a fast iterative image reconstruction method named OSEM (ordered subsets expectation maximization) was applied to experimental data to evaluate its performance and range of applicability. The OSEM algorithm with different subsets was also characterized by comparison of reconstruction image quality and convergence speed. Computer simulations and experimental results confirm the reliability of this new algorithm for phase-contrast computed tomography applications. Compared with the traditional filtered back projection algorithm, in particular in the presence of a noisy acquisition, it furnishes better images at a higher spatial resolution and with lower noise. We emphasize that the method is highly compatible with future X-ray phase contrast imaging clinical applications.

Genetic parameters and variability in physic nut accessions during early developmental stages

The objective of this work was to estimate the genetic parameters and variability among accessions (half-sib families) of physic nut (Jatropha curcas) during the early stages of development. For this study, 110 accessions in the first year of development of the physic nut germplasm bank, maintained at Embrapa Cerrados, DF, Brazil, were evaluated in situ. The experiment was established in a randomized complete block design, with two replicates and five plants per plot arranged in rows at 4x2 m spacing. Grain yield, total number of branches per plant, plant height, stem diameter, canopy projection on the row, canopy projection between rows, canopy volume, number of days until first flowering and height of the first inflorescence were evaluated. Estimates of vegetative genetic parameters showed the existence of genetic variability in the physic nut germplasm bank. Physic nut accessions of the germplasm bank were grouped into five similarity groups based on character divergence. Although preliminary, the obtained results are promising for showing potential for Jatropha improvement with selective efficiency.

The effect of virtual reality on visual vertigo symptoms in patients with peripheral vestibular dysfunction: a pilot study.

Individuals with vestibular dysfunction may experience visual vertigo (VV), in which symptoms are provoked or exacerbated by excessive or disorientating visual stimuli (e.g. supermarkets). VV can significantly improve when customized vestibular rehabilitation exercises are combined with exposure to optokinetic stimuli. Virtual reality (VR), which immerses patients in realistic, visually challenging environments, has also been suggested as an adjunct to VR to improve VV symptoms. This pilot study compared the responses of sixteen patients with unilateral peripheral vestibular disorder randomly allocated to a VR regime incorporating exposure to a static (Group S) or dynamic (Group D) VR environment. Participants practiced vestibular exercises, twice weekly for four weeks, inside a static (Group S) or dynamic (Group D) virtual crowded square environment, presented in an immersive projection theatre (IPT), and received a vestibular exercise program to practice on days not attending clinic. A third Group D1 completed both the static and dynamic VR training. Treatment response was assessed with the Dynamic Gait Index and questionnaires concerning symptom triggers and psychological state. At final assessment, significant betweengroup differences were noted between Groups D (p = 0.001) and D1 (p = 0.03) compared to Group S for VV symptoms with the former two showing a significant 59.2% and 25.8% improvement respectively compared to 1.6% for the latter. Depression scores improved only for Group S (p = 0.01) while a trend towards significance was noted for Group D regarding anxiety scores (p = 0.07). Conclusion: Exposure to dynamic VR environments should be considered as a useful adjunct to vestibular rehabilitation programs for patients with peripheral vestibular disorders and VV symptoms.

Axiomatization of the nucl eolus of assignment games

On the domain of general assignment games (with possible reservation prices) the core is axiomatized as the unique solution satisfying two consistency principles: projection consistency and derived consistency. Also, an axiomatic characterization of the nucleolus is given as the unique solution that satisfies derived consistency and equal maximum complaint between groups. As a consequence, we obtain a geometric characterization of the nucleolus. Maschler et al. (1979) provide a geometrical characterization for the intersection of the kernel and the core of a coalitional game, showing that those allocations that lie in both sets are always the midpoint of certain bargaining range between each pair of players. In the case of the assignment game, this means that the kernel can be determined as those core allocations where the maximum amount, that can be transferred without getting outside the core, from one agent to his / her optimally matched partner equals the maximum amount that he / she can receive from this partner, also remaining inside the core. We now prove that the nucleolus of the assignment game can be characterized by requiring this bisection property be satisfied not only for optimally matched pairs but also for optimally matched coalitions. Key words: cooperative games, assignment game, core, nucleolus

A note on the Lorenz-maximal allocations in the imputation set

In this note we introduce the Lorenz stable set and provide an axiomatic characterization in terms of constrained egalitarianism and projection consistency. On the domain of all coalitional games, we find that this solution connects the weak constrained egalitarian solution (Dutta and Ray, 1989) with their strong counterpart (Dutta and Ray, 1991)

Genetic gains in physic nut using selection indexes

The objective of this work was to estimate genetic gains in physic nut (Jatropha curcas) using selection indexes and to establish the best selection strategy for the species. Direct and indirect selection was carried out using different selection indexes, totalizing 14 strategies. One hundred and seventy five families from the active germplasm bank of Embrapa Agroenergy, Brasília, Brazil, were analyzed in a randomized complete block design with two replicates. The evaluated traits were: grain yield; seeds per fruit; endosperm/seed ratio; seed weight, length, width, and thickness; branches per plant at 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 m; plant height; stem diameter; canopy projection on rows and between lines; canopy volume; juvenility (days to the first flowering); and height of the first inflorescence. Evaluations were done during the second year of cultivation. The use of selection indexes is relevant to maximize the genetic gains in physic nut, favoring a better distribution of desirable traits. The multiplicative and restrictive indexes are considered the most promising for selection.

Superior pedicle breast reduction for hypertrophy with massive ptosis.

Breast hypertrophy, combined with massive ptosis with a suprasternal notch-to-nipple distance of more than 40 cm, remains an endeavour. Different refinements of the initial technique with free nipple grafts have been described to circumvent the problems of nipple underprojection, areolar hypopigmentation and loss of sensibility secondary to nipple grafting, as well as lacking breast projection due to scarce glandular tissue. Techniques relying on nipple areola complex transposition, rather than grafting, have been described with inferior, superomedial and medial pedicles. The aim of this study is to present the results obtained in a series of 10 patients suffering from bilateral breast hypertrophy with massive ptosis, which was defined as a distance >40 cm from the suprasternal notch-to the nipple. All breasts were managed with a superior pedicle and inverted T technique. The mean preoperative suprasternal notch-to-nipple distance was 44 ± 2 cm, and the resection weight ranged from 800 to 2490 g per breast with an average of about 1450 g in this patient population presenting with overweight or obesity. With a mean nipple areola complex (NAC) lift of 20 ± 3 cm, neither nipple nor areola necrosis was observed. One partial epidermolysis of the areola and two cases of delayed wound healing at the trifurcation point of the inverted T were conservatively managed. Only one re-operation was necessary for an important wound dehiscence of the lateral part of the horizontal scar. These results underscore the safety of the superior pedicle technique in cases of massive ptosis with transposition of the NAC of approximately 20 cm, that is, a pedicle length of about 25 cm.

Reconstruction of the join time-delay Doppler-scale reflectivity density in the wide-band regime. A frame theory based approach

The inverse scattering problem concerning the determination of the joint time-delayDoppler-scale reflectivity density characterizing continuous target environments is addressed by recourse to the generalized frame theory. A reconstruction formula,involving the echoes of a frame of outgoing signals and its corresponding reciprocalframe, is developed. A ‘‘realistic’’ situation with respect to the transmission ofa finite number of signals is further considered. In such a case, our reconstruction formula is shown to yield the orthogonal projection of the reflectivity density onto a subspace generated by the transmitted signals.

On wideband deconvolution using wavelet transform

A discussion on the expression proposed in [1]–[3]for deconvolving the wideband density function is presented. Weprove here that such an expression reduces to be proportionalto the wideband correlation receiver output, or continuous wavelettransform of the received signal with respect to the transmittedone. Moreover, we show that the same result has been implicitlyassumed in [1], when the deconvolution equation is derived. Westress the fact that the analyzed approach is just the orthogonalprojection of the density function onto the image of the wavelettransform with respect to the transmitted signal. Consequently,the approach can be considered a good representation of thedensity function only under the prior knowledge that the densityfunction belongs to such a subspace. The choice of the transmittedsignal is thus crucial to this approach.

On the q=1/2 non-extensive maximum entropy distribution

A detailed mathematical analysis on the q = 1/2 non-extensive maximum entropydistribution of Tsallis' is undertaken. The analysis is based upon the splitting of such adistribution into two orthogonal components. One of the components corresponds to theminimum norm solution of the problem posed by the fulfillment of the a priori conditionson the given expectation values. The remaining component takes care of the normalizationconstraint and is the projection of a constant onto the Null space of the "expectation-values-transformation"

The effect of virtual reality on visual vertigo symptoms in patients with peripheral vestibular dysfunction: a pilot study

Individuals with vestibular dysfunction may experience visual vertigo (VV), in which symptoms are provoked or exacerbated by excessive or disorientating visual stimuli (e.g. supermarkets). VV can significantly improve when customized vestibular rehabilitation exercises are combined with exposure to optokinetic stimuli. Virtual reality (VR), which immerses patients in realistic, visually challenging environments, has also been suggested as an adjunct to VR to improve VV symptoms. This pilot study compared the responses of sixteen patients with unilateral peripheral vestibular disorder randomly allocated to a VR regime incorporating exposure to a static (Group S) or dynamic (Group D) VR environment. Participants practiced vestibular exercises, twice weekly for four weeks, inside a static (Group S) or dynamic (Group D) virtual crowded square environment, presented in an immersive projection theatre (IPT), and received a vestibular exercise program to practice on days not attending clinic. A third Group D1 completed both the static and dynamic VR training. Treatment response was assessed with the Dynamic Gait Index and questionnaires concerning symptom triggers and psychological state. At final assessment, significant betweengroup differences were noted between Groups D (p = 0.001) and D1 (p = 0.03) compared to Group S for VV symptoms with the former two showing a significant 59.2% and 25.8% improvement respectively compared to 1.6% for the latter. Depression scores improved only for Group S (p = 0.01) while a trend towards significance was noted for Group D regarding anxiety scores (p = 0.07). Conclusion: Exposure to dynamic VR environments should be considered as a useful adjunct to vestibular rehabilitation programs for patients with peripheral vestibular disorders and VV symptoms.