Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-series varying conditional correlations

This paper provides evidence on the sources of co-movement in monthly US and UK stock price movements by investigating the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in a bivariate system with time-varying conditional correlations. Crosscountry communality in response is uncovered, with changes in the US Federal Funds rate, UK bond yields and oil prices having similar negative effects in both markets. Other variables also play a role, especially for the UK market. These effects do not, however, explain the marked increase in cross-market correlations observed from around 2000, which we attribute to time variation in the correlations of shocks to these markets. A regime-switching smooth transition model captures this time variation well and shows the correlations increase dramatically around 1999-2000. JEL classifications: C32, C51, G15 Keywords: international stock returns, DCC-GARCH model, smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH model, model evaluation.

Improving the accuracy of heat balance integral methods applied to thermal problems with time dependent boundary conditions

In this paper the two main drawbacks of the heat balance integral methods are examined. Firstly we investigate the choice of approximating function. For a standard polynomial form it is shown that combining the Heat Balance and Refined Integral methods to determine the power of the highest order term will either lead to the same, or more often, greatly improved accuracy on standard methods. Secondly we examine thermal problems with a time-dependent boundary condition. In doing so we develop a logarithmic approximating function. This new function allows us to model moving peaks in the temperature profile, a feature that previous heat balance methods cannot capture. If the boundary temperature varies so that at some time t & 0 it equals the far-field temperature, then standard methods predict that the temperature is everywhere at this constant value. The new method predicts the correct behaviour. It is also shown that this function provides even more accurate results, when coupled with the new CIM, than the polynomial profile. Analysis primarily focuses on a specified constant boundary temperature and is then extended to constant flux, Newton cooling and time dependent boundary conditions.

Chronic potassium depletion increases adrenal progesterone production that is necessary for efficient renal retention of potassium.

Modern dietary habits are characterized by high-sodium and low-potassium intakes, each of which was correlated with a higher risk for hypertension. In this study, we examined whether long-term variations in the intake of sodium and potassium induce lasting changes in the plasma concentration of circulating steroids by developing a mathematical model of steroidogenesis in mice. One finding of this model was that mice increase their plasma progesterone levels specifically in response to potassium depletion. This prediction was confirmed by measurements in both male mice and men. Further investigation showed that progesterone regulates renal potassium handling both in males and females under potassium restriction, independent of its role in reproduction. The increase in progesterone production by male mice was time dependent and correlated with decreased urinary potassium content. The progesterone-dependent ability to efficiently retain potassium was because of an RU486 (a progesterone receptor antagonist)-sensitive stimulation of the colonic hydrogen, potassium-ATPase (known as the non-gastric or hydrogen, potassium-ATPase type 2) in the kidney. Thus, in males, a specific progesterone concentration profile induced by chronic potassium restriction regulates potassium balance.

Hybrid consumption paths in the attribute space: A model and application with scanner data

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the standard attribute-based model is extended by considering a general utility function where pure inertia and pure variety-seeking behaviors can be explained in the model as particular linear cases. The dynamics of the model are fully characterized by standard dynamic programming techniques. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys one product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer shifts among varied products.We run some simulations to analyze the consumption paths out of the steady state. Underthe hybrid utility assumption, the consumer behaves inertially among the unfamiliar brandsfor several periods, eventually switching to a variety-seeking behavior when the stationary levels are approached. An empirical analysis is run using scanner databases for three different product categories: fabric softener, saltine cracker, and catsup. Non-linear specifications provide the best fit of the data, as hybrid functional forms are found in all the product categories for most attributes and segments. These results reveal the statistical superiority of the non-linear structure and confirm the gradual trend to seek variety as the level of familiarity with the purchased items increases.

A search theory of money and commerce with Neoclassical production

This paper advances a highly tractable model with search theoretic foundations for money and neoclassical growth. In the model, manufacturingand commerce are distinct and separate activities. In manufacturing,goods are efficiently produced combining capital and labor. In commerce,goods are exchanged in bilateral meetings. The model is applied to studythe effects of inßation on capital accumulation and welfare. With realisticparameters, inflation has large negative effects on welfare even though itraises capital and output. In contrast, with cash-in-advance, a deviceinformally motivated with bilateral trading, inflation depresses capitaland output and has a negligible effect on welfare.

Simulating maize phenology as a function of air temperature with a linear and a nonlinear model

The objective of this study was to adapt a nonlinear model (Wang and Engel - WE) for simulating the phenology of maize (Zea mays L.), and to evaluate this model and a linear one (thermal time), in order to predict developmental stages of a field-grown maize variety. A field experiment, during 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 was conducted in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, in two growing seasons, with seven sowing dates each. Dates of emergence, silking, and physiological maturity of the maize variety BRS Missões were recorded in six replications in each sowing date. Data collected in 2005/2006 growing season were used to estimate the coefficients of the two models, and data collected in the 2006/2007 growing season were used as independent data set for model evaluations. The nonlinear WE model accurately predicted the date of silking and physiological maturity, and had a lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the linear (thermal time) model. The overall RMSE for silking and physiological maturity was 2.7 and 4.8 days with WE model, and 5.6 and 8.3 days with thermal time model, respectively.

Activities of fosfomycin and rifampin on planktonic and adherent Enterococcus faecalis strains in an experimental foreign-body infection model.

Enterococcal implant-associated infections are difficult to treat because antibiotics generally lack activity against enterococcal biofilms. We investigated fosfomycin, rifampin, and their combinations against planktonic and adherent Enterococcus faecalis (ATCC 19433) in vitro and in a foreign-body infection model. The MIC/MBClog values were 32/>512 μg/ml for fosfomycin, 4/>64 μg/ml for rifampin, 1/2 μg/ml for ampicillin, 2/>256 μg/ml for linezolid, 16/32 μg/ml for gentamicin, 1/>64 μg/ml for vancomycin, and 1/5 μg/ml for daptomycin. In time-kill studies, fosfomycin was bactericidal at 8× and 16× MIC, but regrowth of resistant strains occurred after 24 h. With the exception of gentamicin, no complete inhibition of growth-related heat production was observed with other antimicrobials on early (3 h) or mature (24 h) biofilms. In the animal model, fosfomycin alone or in combination with daptomycin reduced planktonic counts by ≈4 log10 CFU/ml below the levels before treatment. Fosfomycin cleared planktonic bacteria from 74% of cage fluids (i.e., no growth in aspirated fluid) and eradicated biofilm bacteria from 43% of cages (i.e., no growth from removed cages). In combination with gentamicin, fosfomycin cleared 77% and cured 58% of cages; in combination with vancomycin, fosfomycin cleared 33% and cured 18% of cages; in combination with daptomycin, fosfomycin cleared 75% and cured 17% of cages. Rifampin showed no activity on planktonic or adherent E. faecalis, whereas in combination with daptomycin it cured 17% and with fosfomycin it cured 25% of cages. Emergence of fosfomycin resistance was not observed in vivo. In conclusion, fosfomycin showed activity against planktonic and adherent E. faecalis. Its role against enterococcal biofilms should be further investigated, especially in combination with rifampin and/or daptomycin treatment.

Massaräätälöintija modulointi parkettiliiketoiminnassa

Tässä diplomityössä tarkastellaan massaräätälöintiä ja modulointia parkettiliiketoiminnassa yhden case-yrityksen näkökulmasta. Työn tavoitteena on kuvata nykyinen toiminta ja luoda massaräätälöintiin ja modulointiin perustuva toimintamalli sekä selvittää uudistetun toimintamallin taloudelliset ja toiminnalliset vaikutukset. Kirjallisuustutkimuksessa tarkastellaan massaräätälöinnin ja moduloinnin käsitettä sekä näihin käsitteisiin liittyviä ohjauksellisia menetelmiä. Tutkimuksessa kuvataan edellä mainittujen käsitteiden perusmallit ja siirtyminen näiden mallien käyttämiseen. Diplomityön empiirisessä osassa tutkitaan massaräätälöinnin ja moduloinnin taloudellisia vaikutuksia case-yrityksessä. Taloudellisia vaikutuksia tutkittiin kolmella eri tavalla. Ensimmäisenä selvitettiin toimintamallin muutoksen vaikutus tuotantoon ja valmisvarastoon sitoutuneenvaihto-omaisuuden määrään. Tämän jälkeen tutkittiin vaikutukset tuotannon läpimenoaikoihin sekä tehtiin laskelmat toimintamallin muuttamisen vaatimista investoinneista ja niistä saavutettavista hyödyistä. Empiiriset tulokset osoittavat, että case-yrityksen nykyisessä toiminnassa on puutteita. Tuotantoon sitoutuu liikaa pääomaa ja tuotannon läpäisyajat ovat liian pitkiä asiakasvaatimuksiin nähden. Tulosten mukaan massaräätälöinnin ja moduloinnin keinoilla voidaan saavuttaa merkittäviä parannuksia tuotannon läpimenoon, pääoman sitoutumiseen ja saadaan aikaan mittavia rahallisia säästöjä. Tulosten perusteella suositellaan, että yritys ottaa käyttöön massaräätälöinnin ja moduloinnin menetelmät kuvatun toimintamallin mukaisesti.

The Besançon Galaxy Model renewed. I. Constraints on the Galactic thin disc evolution from Tycho data

Context. The understanding of Galaxy evolution can be facilitated by the use of population synthesis models, which allow to test hypotheses on the star formation history, star evolution, as well as chemical and dynamical evolution of the Galaxy. Aims. The new version of the Besanc¸on Galaxy Model (hereafter BGM) aims to provide a more flexible and powerful tool to investigate the Initial Mass Function (IMF) and Star Formation Rate (SFR) of the Galactic disc. Methods. We present a new strategy for the generation of thin disc stars which assumes the IMF, SFR and evolutionary tracks as free parameters. We have updated most of the ingredients for the star count production and, for the first time, binary stars are generated in a consistent way. We keep in this new scheme the local dynamical self-consistency as in Bienayme et al (1987). We then compare simulations from the new model with Tycho-2 data and the local luminosity function, as a first test to verify and constrain the new ingredients. The effects of changing thirteen different ingredients of the model are systematically studied. Results. For the first time, a full sky comparison is performed between BGM and data. This strategy allows to constrain the IMF slope at high masses which is found to be close to 3.0, excluding a shallower slope such as Salpeter"s one. The SFR is found decreasing whatever IMF is assumed. The model is compatible with a local dark matter density of 0.011 M pc−3 implying that there is no compelling evidence for significant amount of dark matter in the disc. While the model is fitted to Tycho2 data, a magnitude limited sample with V<11, we check that it is still consistent with fainter stars. Conclusions. The new model constitutes a new basis for further comparisons with large scale surveys and is being prepared to become a powerful tool for the analysis of the Gaia mission data.

The Besançon Galaxy Model renewed. I. Constraints on the Galactic thin disc evolution from Tycho data

Context. The understanding of Galaxy evolution can be facilitated by the use of population synthesis models, which allow to test hypotheses on the star formation history, star evolution, as well as chemical and dynamical evolution of the Galaxy. Aims. The new version of the Besanc¸on Galaxy Model (hereafter BGM) aims to provide a more flexible and powerful tool to investigate the Initial Mass Function (IMF) and Star Formation Rate (SFR) of the Galactic disc. Methods. We present a new strategy for the generation of thin disc stars which assumes the IMF, SFR and evolutionary tracks as free parameters. We have updated most of the ingredients for the star count production and, for the first time, binary stars are generated in a consistent way. We keep in this new scheme the local dynamical self-consistency as in Bienayme et al (1987). We then compare simulations from the new model with Tycho-2 data and the local luminosity function, as a first test to verify and constrain the new ingredients. The effects of changing thirteen different ingredients of the model are systematically studied. Results. For the first time, a full sky comparison is performed between BGM and data. This strategy allows to constrain the IMF slope at high masses which is found to be close to 3.0, excluding a shallower slope such as Salpeter"s one. The SFR is found decreasing whatever IMF is assumed. The model is compatible with a local dark matter density of 0.011 M pc−3 implying that there is no compelling evidence for significant amount of dark matter in the disc. While the model is fitted to Tycho2 data, a magnitude limited sample with V<11, we check that it is still consistent with fainter stars. Conclusions. The new model constitutes a new basis for further comparisons with large scale surveys and is being prepared to become a powerful tool for the analysis of the Gaia mission data.

Description of epidemics of coffee rust with neural networks

The objective of this paper was to evaluate the potential of neural networks (NN) as an alternative method to the basic epidemiological approach to describe epidemics of coffee rust. The NN was developed from the intensities of coffee (Coffea arabica) rust along with the climatic variables collected in Lavras-MG between 13 February 1998 and 20 April 2001. The NN was built with climatic variables that were either selected in a stepwise regression analysis or by the Braincel® system, software for NN building. Fifty-nine networks and 26 regression models were tested. The best models were selected based on small values of the mean square deviation (MSD) and of the mean prediction error (MPE). For the regression models, the highest coefficients of determination (R²) were used. The best model developed with neural networks had an MSD of 4.36 and an MPE of 2.43%. This model used the variables of minimum temperature, production, relative humidity of the air, and irradiance 30 days before the evaluation of disease. The best regression model was developed from 29 selected climatic variables in the network. The summary statistics for this model were: MPE=6.58%, MSE=4.36, and R²=0.80. The elaborated neural networks from a time series also were evaluated to describe the epidemic. The incidence of coffee rust at four previous fortnights resulted in a model with MPE=4.72% and an MSD=3.95.

Evidence for eosinophil recruitment, leukotriene B4 production and mast cell hyperplasia following Toxocara canis infection in rats

It is well known that eosinophilia is a key pathogenetic component of toxocariasis. The objective of the present study was to determine if there is an association between peritoneal and blood eosinophil influx, mast cell hyperplasia and leukotriene B4 (LTB4) production after Toxocara canis infection. Oral inoculation of 56-day-old Wistar rats (N = 5-7 per group) with 1000 embryonated eggs containing third-stage (L3) T. canis larvae led to a robust accumulation of total leukocytes in blood beginning on day 3 and peaking on day 18, mainly characterized by eosinophils and accompanied by higher serum LTB4 levels. At that time, we also noted increased eosinophil numbers in the peritoneal cavity. In addition, we observed increased peritoneal mast cell number in the peritoneal cavity, which correlated with the time course of eosinophilia during toxocariasis. We also demonstrated that mast cell hyperplasia in the intestines and lungs began soon after the T. canis larvae migrated to these compartments, reaching maximal levels on day 24, which correlated with the complete elimination of the parasite. Therefore, mast cells appear to be involved in peritoneal and blood eosinophil infiltration through an LTB4-dependent mechanism following T. canis infection in rats. Our data also demonstrate a tight association between larval migratory stages and intestinal and pulmonary mast cell hyperplasia in the toxocariasis model.

The time-course of lexical activation in Japanese morphographic word recognition: Evidence for a character-driven processing model

This lexical decision study with eye tracking of Japanese two-kanji-character words investigated the order in which a whole two-character word and its morphographic constituents are activated in the course of lexical access, the relative contributions of the left and the right characters in lexical decision, the depth to which semantic radicals are processed, and how nonlinguistic factors affect lexical processes. Mixed-effects regression analyses of response times and subgaze durations (i.e., first-pass fixation time spent on each of the two characters) revealed joint contributions of morphographic units at all levels of the linguistic structure with the magnitude and the direction of the lexical effects modulated by readers’ locus of attention in a left-to-right preferred processing path. During the early time frame, character effects were larger in magnitude and more robust than radical and whole-word effects, regardless of the font size and the type of nonwords. Extending previous radical-based and character-based models, we propose a task/decision-sensitive character-driven processing model with a level-skipping assumption: Connections from the feature level bypass the lower radical level and link up directly to the higher character level.

Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Chew–Dekel Preferences

In this paper we provide a thorough characterization of the asset returns implied by a simple general equilibrium production economy with Chew–Dekel risk preferences and convex capital adjustment costs. When households display levels of disappointment aversion consistent with the experimental evidence, a version of the model parameterized to match the volatility of output and consumption growth generates unconditional expected asset returns and price of risk in line with the historical data. For the model with Epstein–Zin preferences to generate similar statistics, the relative risk aversion coefficient needs to be about 55, two orders of magnitude higher than the available estimates. We argue that this is not surprising, given the limited risk imposed on agents by a reasonably calibrated stochastic growth model.

MQFD: A Model for Synergizing TPM and QFD

This thesis presents the methodology of linking Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) and Quality Function Deployment (QFD). The Synergic power ofTPM and QFD led to the formation of a new maintenance model named Maintenance Quality Function Deployment (MQFD). This model was found so powerful that, it could overcome the drawbacks of TPM, by taking care of customer voices. Those voices of customers are used to develop the house of quality. The outputs of house of quality, which are in the form of technical languages, are submitted to the top management for making strategic decisions. The technical languages, which are concerned with enhancing maintenance quality, are strategically directed by the top management towards their adoption of eight TPM pillars. The TPM characteristics developed through the development of eight pillars are fed into the production system, where their implementation is focused towards increasing the values of the maintenance quality parameters, namely overall equipment efficiency (GEE), mean time between failures (MTBF), mean time to repair (MTIR), performance quality, availability and mean down time (MDT). The outputs from production system are required to be reflected in the form of business values namely improved maintenance quality, increased profit, upgraded core competence, and enhanced goodwill. A unique feature of the MQFD model is that it is not necessary to change or dismantle the existing process ofdeveloping house ofquality and TPM projects, which may already be under practice in the company concerned. Thus, the MQFD model enables the tactical marriage between QFD and TPM.First, the literature was reviewed. The results of this review indicated that no activities had so far been reported on integrating QFD in TPM and vice versa. During the second phase, a survey was conducted in six companies in which TPM had been implemented. The objective of this survey was to locate any traces of QFD implementation in TPM programme being implemented in these companies. This survey results indicated that no effort on integrating QFD in TPM had been made in these companies. After completing these two phases of activities, the MQFD model was designed. The details of this work are presented in this research work. Followed by this, the explorative studies on implementing this MQFD model in real time environments were conducted. In addition to that, an empirical study was carried out to examine the receptivity of MQFD model among the practitioners and multifarious organizational cultures. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to find the hierarchy of various factors influencing MQFD in a company. Throughout the research work, the theory and practice of MQFD were juxtaposed by presenting and publishing papers among scholarly communities and conducting case studies in real time scenario.