Probabilistic age classification with Bayesian networks: a study on the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis

In the past few decades, the rise of criminal, civil and asylum cases involving young people lacking valid identification documents has generated an increase in the demand of age estimation. The chronological age or the probability that an individual is older or younger than a given age threshold are generally estimated by means of some statistical methods based on observations performed on specific physical attributes. Among these statistical methods, those developed in the Bayesian framework allow users to provide coherent and transparent assignments which fulfill forensic and medico-legal purposes. The application of the Bayesian approach is facilitated by using probabilistic graphical tools, such as Bayesian networks. The aim of this work is to test the performances of the Bayesian network for age estimation recently presented in scientific literature in classifying individuals as older or younger than 18 years of age. For these exploratory analyses, a sample related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis available in scientific literature was used. Results obtained in the classification are promising: in the criminal context, the Bayesian network achieved, on the average, a rate of correct classifications of approximatively 97%, whilst in the civil context, the rate is, on the average, close to the 88%. These results encourage the continuation of the development and the testing of the method in order to support its practical application in casework.

A comparison of three established age estimation methods on an adult Spanish sample.

Most current methods for adult skeletal age-at-death estimation are based on American samples comprising individuals of European and African ancestry. Our limited understanding of population variability hampers our efforts to apply these techniques to various skeletal populations around the world, especially in global forensic contexts. Further, documented skeletal samples are rare, limiting our ability to test our techniques. The objective of this paper is to test three pelvic macroscopic methods (1-Suchey-Brooks; 2- Lovejoy; 3- Buckberry and Chamberlain) on a documented modern Spanish sample. These methods were selected because they are popular among Spanish anthropologists and because they never have been tested in a Spanish sample. The study sample consists of 80 individuals (55 ♂ and 25 ♀) of known sex and age from the Valladolid collection. Results indicate that in all three methods, levels of bias and inaccuracy increase with age. The Lovejoy method performs poorly (27%) compared with Suchey-Brooks (71%) and Buckberry and Chamberlain (86%). However, the levels of correlation between phases and chronological ages are low and comparable in the three methods (< 0.395). The apparent accuracy of the Suchey-Brooks and Buckberry and Chamberlain methods is largely based on the broad width of the methods" estimated intervals. This study suggests that before systematic application of these three methodologies in Spanish populations, further statistical modeling and research into the co-variance of chronological age with morphological change is necessary. Future methods should be developed specific to various world populations, and should allow for both precision and flexibility in age estimation.

ADHD candidate gene (DRD4 exon III) affects inhibitory control in a healthy sample.

Background Dopamine is believed to be a key neurotransmitter in the development of attention-deficit/ hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Several recent studies point to an association of the dopamine D4 receptor (DRD4) gene and this condition. More specifically, the 7 repeat variant of a variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) polymorphism in exon III of this gene is suggested to bear a higher risk for ADHD. In the present study, we investigated the role of this polymorphism in the modulation of neurophysiological correlates of response inhibition (Go/Nogo task) in a healthy, high-functioning sample. Results Homozygous 7 repeat carriers showed a tendency for more accurate behavior in the Go/Nogo task compared to homozygous 4 repeat carriers. Moreover, 7 repeat carriers presented an increased nogo-related theta band response together with a reduced go-related beta decrease. Conclusions These data point to improved cognitive functions and prefrontal control in the 7 repeat carriers, probably due to the D4 receptor's modulatory role in prefrontal areas. The results are discussed with respect to previous behavioral data on this polymorphism and animal studies on the impact of the D4 receptor on cognitive functions.

A test of Suchey-Brooks (pubic symphysis) and Buckberry-Chamberlain (auricular surface) methods on an identified Spanish sample: paleodemographic implications

Forensic Anthropology and Bioarchaeology studies depend critically on the accuracy and reliability of age-estimation techniques. In this study we have evaluated two age-estimation methods for adults based on the pubic symphysis (Suchey-Brooks) and the auricular surface (Buckberry-Chamberlain) in a current sample of 139 individuals (67 women and 72 men) from Madrid in order to verify the accuracy of both methods applied to a sample of innominate bones from the central Iberian Peninsula. Based on the overall results of this study, the Buckberry-Chamberlain method seems to be the method that provides better estimates in terms of accuracy (percentage of hits) and absolute difference to the chronological age taking into account the total sample. The percentage of hits and mean absolute difference of the Buckberry-Chamberlain and Suchey-Brooks methods are 97.3% and 11.24 years, and 85.7% and 14.38 years, respectively. However, this apparently greater applicability of the Buckberry-Chamberlain method is mainly due to the broad age ranges provided. Results indicated that Suchey-Brooks method is more appropriate for populations with a majority of young individuals, whereas Buckberry-Chamberlain method is recommended for populations with a higher percentage of individuals in the range 60-70 years. These different age estimation methodologies significantly influence the resulting demographic profile, consequently affecting the biological characteristics reconstruction of the samples in which they are applied.

Epidemiology and injury patterns of patients consulting following assault by nightclub security agents in a university hospital emergency service and an associated specialised forensic consultation

Introduction: The Violence Medical Unit (VMU), a specialised forensic medical consultation, was created at the Lausanne university Hospital in 2006. All patients consulting at the ED for interpersonal violencerelated injury are referred to the VMU, which provides forensic documentation of the injury and referral to the relevant community based victim-support organisations within 48 hours of the ED visit. This frees the ED medical staff from forensic injury documentation and legal/social referral, tasks for which they lack both time and training. Among community violence, assaults by nightclub security agents against patrons have increased from 6% to 10% between 2007 and 2009. We set out to characterise the demographics, assault mechanisms, subsequent injuries, prior alcohol intake and ED & VMU costs incurred by this group of patients. Methods: We retrospectively included all patients consulting at the VMU due to assault by nightclub security agents from January 2007 to December 2009. Data was obtained from ED & VMU medical, nursing and administrative records. Results: Our sample included 70 patients, of which 64 were referred by the CHUV ED. The victims were typically young (median age 29) males (93%). 77% of assaults occurred on the weekend between 12 PM and 4 AM, and 73% of the victims were under the influence of alcohol. 83% of the patients were punched, kicked and/or head-butted; 9% had been struck with a blunt instrument. 80% of the injuries were in the head and neck area and 19% of the victims sustained fractures. 21% of the victims were prescribed medical leave. Total ED & VMU costs averaged 1048 SFr. Conclusion: Medical staff treating this population of assault victims must be aware of the assault mechanisms and injury patterns, in particular the high probability of fractures, in order to provide adequate diagnosis and care. Associated inebriation mandates liberal use of radiology, as delayed or missed diagnosis may have medical, medicolegal and legal implications. Emergency medical services play an important role in detecting and reporting of such incidents. Centralised management of the forensic documentation facilitates referral to victim support organisations and epidemiological data collection. Magnitudes and trends of the different types of violence can be determined, and this information can be then impact public safety management policies.

Modelling the consequences of a reduction in alcohol consumption among patients with alcohol dependence based on real-life observational data.

BACKGROUND: Most available pharmacotherapies for alcohol-dependent patients target abstinence; however, reduced alcohol consumption may be a more realistic goal. Using randomized clinical trial (RCT) data, a previous microsimulation model evaluated the clinical relevance of reduced consumption in terms of avoided alcohol-attributable events. Using real-life observational data, the current analysis aimed to adapt the model and confirm previous findings about the clinical relevance of reduced alcohol consumption. METHODS: Based on the prospective observational CONTROL study, evaluating daily alcohol consumption among alcohol-dependent patients, the model predicted the probability of drinking any alcohol during a given day. Predicted daily alcohol consumption was simulated in a hypothetical sample of 200,000 patients observed over a year. Individual total alcohol consumption (TAC) and number of heavy drinking days (HDD) were derived. Using published risk equations, probabilities of alcohol-attributable adverse health events (e.g., hospitalizations or death) corresponding to simulated consumptions were computed, and aggregated for categories of patients defined by HDDs and TAC (expressed per 100,000 patient-years). Sensitivity analyses tested model robustness. RESULTS: Shifting from >220 HDDs per year to 120-140 HDDs and shifting from 36,000-39,000 g TAC per year (120-130 g/day) to 15,000-18,000 g TAC per year (50-60 g/day) impacted substantially on the incidence of events (14,588 and 6148 events avoided per 100,000 patient-years, respectively). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This study corroborates the previous microsimulation modeling approach and, using real-life data, confirms RCT-based findings that reduced alcohol consumption is a relevant objective for consideration in alcohol dependence management to improve public health.

Independent and combined associations of risky single-occasion drinking and drinking volume with alcohol use disorder: Evidence from a sample of young Swiss men.

BACKGROUND: Risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD) is a prevalent and potentially harmful alcohol use pattern associated with increased alcohol use disorder (AUD). However, RSOD is commonly associated with a higher level of alcohol intake, and most studies have not controlled for drinking volume (DV). Thus, it is unclear whether the findings provide information about RSOD or DV. This study sought to investigate the independent and combined effects of RSOD and DV on AUD. METHODS: Data were collected in the longitudinal Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF) among 5598 young Swiss male alcohol users in their early twenties. Assessment included DV, RSOD, and AUD at two time points. Generalized linear models for binomial distributions provided evidence regarding associations of DV, RSOD, and their interaction. RESULTS: DV, RSOD, and their interaction were significantly related to the number of AUD criteria. The slope of the interaction was steeper for non/rare RSOD than for frequent RSOD. CONCLUSIONS: RSOD appears to be a harmful pattern of drinking, associated with increased AUD and it moderated the relationship between DV and AUD. This study highlighted the importance of taking drinking patterns into account, for both research and public health planning, since RSO drinkers constitute a vulnerable subgroup for AUD.

Drinking locations and alcohol-related harm: Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations in a sample of young Swiss men.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption--in particular drinking volume (DV) and risky single occasion drinking (RSOD)--has been related to a wide range of negative consequences and health problems. Previous studies also suggested that drinking in certain locations may be more strongly associated with the occurrence of alcohol-related harm than drinking in others. However, they were conducted in countries culturally and legally different from European countries and were limited to cross-sectional designs. This study investigates the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of alcohol-related harm with DVs in different locations in a sample of young Swiss men. METHODS: A representative sample of 4536 young Swiss male drinkers completed baseline and 15-month follow-up questionnaires. These assessed DVs in 11 locations, alcohol-related harm (i.e. number of alcohol-related consequences and alcohol use disorder criteria) and frequency of RSOD. Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of alcohol-related harm with DVs in each location were tested using regression models, with and without adjustment for frequency of RSOD. RESULTS: Both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses showed significant positive associations between alcohol-related harm and DVs at friends' homes, in discos/nightclubs and in outdoor public places, when controlling for frequency of RSOD. In contrast, the contribution of DVs at one's own home and in restaurants was consistently not significant when adjusted for frequency of RSOD. When controlling for RSOD, associations between alcohol-related harm and DVs in bars/pubs, when playing sports, during other leisure activities, at cinemas/theatres, during sporting events, and during special events were not consistent between cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that prevention interventions should not only target reducing the overall volume of alcohol consumed and the frequency of RSOD in general, but they should additionally focus on limiting alcohol consumption in outdoor public places, discos/nightclubs, and in friends' homes in particular, or at least on preventing harm occurring in these occasions.

Latent Class Analysis of Gambling Activities in a Sample of Young Swiss Men : Association with Gambling Problems, Substance Use Outcomes, Personality Traits and Coping Strategies.

The study aimed to identify different patterns of gambling activities (PGAs) and to investigate how PGAs differed in gambling problems, substance use outcomes, personality traits and coping strategies. A representative sample of 4989 young Swiss males completed a questionnaire assessing seven distinct gambling activities, gambling problems, substance use outcomes, personality traits and coping strategies. PGAs were identified using latent class analysis (LCA). Differences between PGAs in gambling and substance use outcomes, personality traits and coping strategies were tested. LCA identified six different PGAs. With regard to gambling and substance use outcomes, the three most problematic PGAs were extensive gamblers, followed by private gamblers, and electronic lottery and casino gamblers, respectively. By contrast, the three least detrimental PGAs were rare or non-gamblers, lottery only gamblers and casino gamblers. With regard to personality traits, compared with rare or non-gamblers, private and casino gamblers reported higher levels of sensation seeking. Electronic lottery and casino gamblers, private gamblers and extensive gamblers had higher levels of aggression-hostility. Extensive and casino gamblers reported higher levels of sociability, whereas casino gamblers reported lower levels of anxiety-neuroticism. Extensive gamblers used more maladaptive and less adaptive coping strategies than other groups. Results suggest that gambling is not a homogeneous activity since different types of gamblers exist according to the PGA they are engaged in. Extensive gamblers, electronic and casino gamblers and private gamblers may have the most problematic PGAs. Personality traits and coping skills may predispose individuals to PGAs associated with more or less negative outcomes.

Solitary pulmonary nodule and 18F-FDG PET/CT. Part 1: epidemiology, morphological evaluation and cancer probability

Abstract Solitary pulmonary nodule corresponds to a common radiographic finding, which is frequently detected incidentally. The investigation of this entity remains complex, since characteristics of benign and malignant processes overlap in the differential diagnosis. Currently, many strategies are available to evaluate solitary pulmonary nodules with the main objective of characterizing benign lesions as best as possible, while avoiding to expose patients to the risks inherent to invasive methods, besides correctly detecting cases of lung cancer so as the potential curative treatment is not delayed. This first part of the study focuses on the epidemiology, the morfological evaluation and the methods to determine the likelihood of cancer in cases of indeterminate solitary pulmonary nodule.

A nonparametric method for the measurement of size diversity with emphasis on data standardization

The most suitable method for estimation of size diversity is investigated. Size diversity is computed on the basis of the Shannon diversity expression adapted for continuous variables, such as size. It takes the form of an integral involving the probability density function (pdf) of the size of the individuals. Different approaches for the estimation of pdf are compared: parametric methods, assuming that data come from a determinate family of pdfs, and nonparametric methods, where pdf is estimated using some kind of local evaluation. Exponential, generalized Pareto, normal, and log-normal distributions have been used to generate simulated samples using estimated parameters from real samples. Nonparametric methods include discrete computation of data histograms based on size intervals and continuous kernel estimation of pdf. Kernel approach gives accurate estimation of size diversity, whilst parametric methods are only useful when the reference distribution have similar shape to the real one. Special attention is given for data standardization. The division of data by the sample geometric mean is proposedas the most suitable standardization method, which shows additional advantages: the same size diversity value is obtained when using original size or log-transformed data, and size measurements with different dimensionality (longitudes, areas, volumes or biomasses) may be immediately compared with the simple addition of ln k where kis the dimensionality (1, 2, or 3, respectively). Thus, the kernel estimation, after data standardization by division of sample geometric mean, arises as the most reliable and generalizable method of size diversity evaluation

New sample of drosophilids from the Font Groga site, Barcelona (Spain)

A new sample of drosophilids was obtained from Font Groga (Barcelona) on 9th October 2013. Flies were netted over 12 baits containing fermenting bananas placed along a trail from 4 to 7 pm. The number of flies classified according to species and sex is presented in Table 1. The most abundant species is D. subobscura (62.60%). This is expected because the sample was obtained during its autumn peak of expansion. Also interesting is to find again D. suzukii, and in a percentage similar (9.20%) to that obtained in 2012 sample. This species invaded recently many European regions and seems it is well established. We have finally estimated the species diversity using H" (Shannon diversity index) and J (Shannon uniformity index). The values obtained were 0.990 and 0.615, respectively. They are similar to those estimates obtained in the same site by Calabria in autumn 2007 and higher than those of Canals et al. in late autumn 2012.

Estimating extreme value cumulative distribution functions using bias-corrected kernel approaches

We propose a new kernel estimation of the cumulative distribution function based on transformation and on bias reducing techniques. We derive the optimal bandwidth that minimises the asymptotic integrated mean squared error. The simulation results show that our proposed kernel estimation improves alternative approaches when the variable has an extreme value distribution with heavy tail and the sample size is small.

Learning in later life: participation in formal, non-formal and informal activities in a nationally representative Spanish sample

This article examines the participation of Spanish older people in formal, non-formal and informal learning activities and presents a profile of participants in each kind of learning activity. We used data from a nationally representative sample of Spanish people between 60 and 75 years old (n = 4,703). The data were extracted from the 2007 Encuesta sobre la Participación de la Población Adulta en Actividades de Aprendizaje (EADA, Survey on Adult Population Involvement in Learning Activities). Overall, only 22.8 % of the sample participated in a learning activity. However, there was wide variation in the participation rates for the different types of activity. Informal activities were far more common than formal ones. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that education level and involvement in social and cultural activities were associated with likelihood of participating, regardless of the type of learning activity. When these variables were taken into account, age did not predict decreasing participation, at least in non-formal and informal activities. Implications for further research, future trends and policies to promote older adult education are discussed.

Job losses, outsourcing and relocation: empirical evidence using microdata

Using microdata, we analyse the determinants of firm relocation and conventional outsourcing decisions as a way to reduce employment. The results for a sample of 32 countries show the relevance of factors not considered previously in the literature. Firms that are below average in quality or innovation have a higher propensity to externalise part of their production through outsourcing, while lower relative profitability and longer time to market for new products each imply a higher probability of relocation.