Prediction of hyperglycemia in preterm newborn infants

Many conditions are associated with hyperglycemia in preterm neonates because they are very susceptible to changes in carbohydrate homeostasis. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of hyperglycemia in preterm infants undergoing glucose infusion during the first week of life, and to enumerate the main variables predictive of hyperglycemia. This prospective study (during 1994) included 40 preterm neonates (gestational age <37 weeks); 511 determinations of glycemic status were made in these infants (average 12.8/infant), classified by gestational age, birth weight, glucose infusion rate and clinical status at the time of determination (based on clinical and laboratory parameters). The clinical status was classified as stable or unstable, as an indication of the stability or instability of the mechanisms governing glucose homeostasis at the time of determination of blood glucose; 59 episodes of hyperglycemia (11.5%) were identified. A case-control study was used (case = hyperglycemia; control = normoglycemia) to derive a model for predicting glycemia. The risk factors considered were gestational age (<=31 vs. >31 weeks), birth weight (<=1500 vs. >1500 g), glucose infusion rate (<=6 vs. >6 mg/kg/min) and clinical status (stable vs. unstable). Multivariate analysis by logistic regression gave the following mathematical model for predicting the probability of hyperglycemia: 1/exp{-3.1437 + 0.5819(GA) + 0.9234(GIR) + 1.0978(Clinical status)} The main predictive variables in our study, in increasing order of importance, were gestational age, glucose infusion rate and, the clinical status (stable or unstable) of the preterm newborn infant. The probability of hyperglycemia ranged from 4.1% to 36.9%.

Assessing the role of social networks on migrant labor market outcomes: Evidence from a representative immigrant survey

What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

Microstructural changes befor macroeconomic announcements: Predictability of economic surprises in the U.S. market

Flow of new information is what produces price changes, understanding if the market is unbalanced is fundamental to know how much inventory market makers should keep during an important economic release. After identifying which economic indicators impact the S&P and 10 year Treasuries. The Volume Synchronized Probability of Information-Based Trading (VPIN) will be used as a predictability measure. The results point to some predictability power over economic surprises of the VPIN metric, mainly when calculated using the S&P. This finding appears to be supported when analysing depth imbalance before economic releases. Inferior results were achieved when using treasuries. The final aim of this study is to fill the gap between microstructural changes and macroeconomic events.

Comparison of catheter-related infection risk in two different long-term venous devices in adult hematology-oncology patients

PURPOSE: Infection is the leading complication of long-term central venous catheters, and its incidence may vary according to catheter type. The objective of this study was to compare the frequency and probability of infection between two types of long-term intravenous devices. METHODS: Retrospective study in 96 onco-hematology patients with partially implanted catheters (n = 55) or completely implanted ones (n = 42). Demographic data and catheter care were similar in both groups. Infection incidence and infection-free survival were used for the comparison of the two devices. RESULTS: In a median follow-up time of 210 days, the catheter-related infection incidence was 0.2102/100 catheter-days for the partially implanted devices and 0.0045/100 catheter-days for the completely implanted devices; the infection incidence rate was 46.7 (CI 95% = 6.2 to 348.8). The 1-year first infection-free survival ratio was 45% versus 97%, and the 1-year removal due to infection-free survival ratio was 42% versus 97% for partially and totally implanted catheters, respectively (P <.001 for both comparisons). CONCLUSION: In the present study, the infection risk was lower in completely implanted devices than in partially implanted ones.

Assessing the role of social networks on migrant labor market outcomes: Evidence from a representative immigrant survey

What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

Dispersal of seeds of Hymenaea courbaril (Fabaceae) in a logged rain forest in the Peruvian Amazonian

Seed dispersal of Hymenaea courbaril was studied by following the fate of 585 seeds embedded with small magnets and set in displays in and near a logged strip in rain forest in the Peruvian Amazonian. Mammals took fruits from all displays, which were located in the forest, edge, and cleared strip. Overall removal rates were low - a median of 8.1 fruits / month from displays maintained with 8-10 fruits - but were higher in August than in earlier months. Most fruits were dropped near the display or had their seeds eaten, but > 13% were successfully dispersed. Most of the dispersed seeds were buried, which increases probability of germination. Maximum dispersal distance of live seeds was 12.1 m (median 3.1 m), but other magnets were transported up to 34 m, indicating seeds were dispersed further, but then eaten. Acouchies (most likely Myoprocta pratti) and agoutis (Dasyprocta fuliginosa) were apparently the main dispersal agents. Dispersal of seeds from the forest into the logged strip was rare, suggesting that although rodents disperse H. courbaril, they cannot be relied on for the reseeding this and similar species in recent clearings.

On the Hill estimator: a comparison of methods

Extreme value theory (EVT) deals with the occurrence of extreme phenomena. The tail index is a very important parameter appearing in the estimation of the probability of rare events. Under a semiparametric framework, inference requires the choice of a number k of upper order statistics to be considered. This is the crux of the matter and there is no definite formula to do it, since a small k leads to high variance and large values of k tend to increase the bias. Several methodologies have emerged in literature, specially concerning the most popular Hill estimator (Hill, 1975). In this work we compare through simulation well-known procedures presented in Drees and Kaufmann (1998), Matthys and Beirlant (2000), Beirlant et al. (2002) and de Sousa and Michailidis (2004), with a heuristic scheme considered in Frahm et al. (2005) within the estimation of a different tail measure but with a similar context. We will see that the new method may be an interesting alternative.

Identification of duplicates of cassava accessions sampled on the North Region of Brazil using microsatellite markers

Duplicates are common in germplasm banks and their identification is needed to facilitate germplasm bank management and to reduce maintenance costs. The aim of this work was to identify duplicates of cassava from a germplasm bank in Eastern Amazon, which had been previously characterized both morphological and agronomically. In order to be genotyped with 15 microsatellite loci, 36 accessions were selected. These accessions were classified into 13 groups of similar morpho-agronomical characteristics. All loci were polymorphic, and 75 alleles were identified, with an average of five alleles per loci and H E = 0.66. There were determined 34 pairs of genotypes with identical multiloci profiles and the probability of genetic identity was 1.1x10-12 with probability of exclusion of 99.9999%. Among these duplicates, there are accessions sampled on different years and places, but with different names and accessions with the same name sampled in different places and years. The study identified genotypes that are grown in different places and that have been maintained over the years by local farmers.

Joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data on breast cancer

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências (Especialidade em Matemática)

Systems biology approaches for the design of novel Saccharomyces cerevisiae winemaking strains for enhanced flavour compounds synthesis

Tese de Doutoramento em Biologia Ambiental e Molecular

High-level of viral genomic diversity in cervical cancers: a Brazilian study on human papillomavirus type 16

Invasive cervical cancer (ICC) is the third most frequent cancer among women worldwide and is associated with persistent infection by carcinogenic human papillomaviruses (HPVs). The combination of large populations of viral progeny and decades of sustained infection may allow for the generation of intra-patient diversity, in spite of the assumedly low mutation rates of PVs. While the natural history of chronic HPVs infections has been comprehensively described, within-host viral diversity remains largely unexplored. In this study we have applied next generation sequencing to the analysis of intra-host genetic diversity in ten ICC and one condyloma cases associated to single HPV16 infection. We retrieved from all cases near full-length genomic sequences. All samples analyzed contained polymorphic sites, ranging from 3 to 125 polymorphic positions per genome, and the median probability of a viral genome picked at random to be identical to the consensus sequence in the lesion was only 40%. We have also identified two independent putative duplication events in two samples, spanning the L2 and the L1 gene, respectively. Finally, we have identified with good support a chimera of human and viral DNA. We propose that viral diversity generated during HPVs chronic infection may be fueled by innate and adaptive immune pressures. Further research will be needed to understand the dynamics of viral DNA variability, differentially in benign and malignant lesions, as well as in tissues with differential intensity of immune surveillance. Finally, the impact of intralesion viral diversity on the long-term oncogenic potential may deserve closer attention.

Chest pain in the emergency room. Importance of a systematic approach

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficiency of a systematic diagnostic approach in patients with chest pain in the emergency room in relation to the diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and the rate of hospitalization in high-cost units. METHODS: One thousand and three consecutive patients with chest pain were screened according to a pre-established process of diagnostic investigation based on the pre-test probability of ACS determinate by chest pain type and ECG changes. RESULTS: Of the 1003 patients, 224 were immediately discharged home because of no suspicion of ACS (route 5) and 119 were immediately transferred to the coronary care united because of ST elevation or left bundle-branch block (LBBB) (route 1) (74% of these had a final diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction [AMI]). Of the 660 patients that remained in the emergency room under observation, 77 (12%) had AMI without ST segment elevation and 202 (31%) had unstable angina (UA). In route 2 (high probability of ACS) 17% of patients had AMI and 43% had UA, whereas in route 3 (low probability) 2% had AMI and 7 % had UA. The admission ECG has been confirmed as a poor sensitivity test for the diagnosis of AMI ( 49%), with a positive predictive value considered only satisfactory (79%). CONCLUSION: A systematic diagnostic strategy, as used in this study, is essential in managing patients with chest pain in the emergency room in order to obtain high diagnostic accuracy, lower cost, and optimization of the use of coronary care unit beds.

Efficacy of a diagnostic strategy for patients with chest pain and no ST-segment elevation in the emergency room

PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of a systematic model of care for patients with chest pain and no ST segment elevation in the emergency room. METHODS: From 1003 patients submitted to an algorithm diagnostic investigation by probability of acute ischemic syndrome. We analyzed 600 ones with no elevation of ST segment, then enrolled to diagnostic routes of median (route 2) and low probability (route 3) to ischemic syndrome. RESULTS: In route 2 we found 17% acute myocardial infarction and 43% unstable angina, whereas in route 3 the rates were 2% and 7%, respectively. Patients with normal/non--specific ECG had 6% probability of AMI whereas in those with negative first CKMB it was 7%; the association of the 2 data only reduced it to 4%. In patients in route 2 the diagnosis of AMI could only be ruled out with serial CKMB measurement up to 9 hours, while in route 3 it could be done in up to 3 hours. Thus, sensitivity and negative predictive value of admission CKMB for AMI were 52% and 93%, respectively. About one-half of patients with unstable angina did not disclose objective ischemic changes on admission. CONCLUSION: The use of a systematic model of care in patients with chest pain offers the opportunity of hindering inappropriate release of patients with ACI and reduces unnecessary admissions. However some patients even with normal ECG should not be released based on a negative first CKMB. Serial measurement of CKMB up to 9 hours is necessary in patients with medium probability of AMI.

Predictive value of clinical and electrophysiological variables in patients with chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia

OBJECTIVE: Risk stratification of patients with nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) and chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy (CCC). METHODS: Seventy eight patients with CCC and NSVT were consecutively and prospectively studied. All patients underwent to 24-hour Holter monitoring, radioisotopic ventriculography, left ventricular angiography, and electrophysiologic study. With programmed ventricular stimulation. RESULTS: Sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT) was induced in 25 patients (32%), NSVT in 20 (25.6%) and ventricular fibrillation in 4 (5.1%). In 29 patients (37.2%) no arrhythmia was inducible. During a 55.7-month-follow-up, 22 (28.2%) patients died, 16 due to sudden death, 2 due to nonsudden cardiac death and 4 due to noncardiac death. Logistic regression analysis showed that induction was the independent and main variable that predicted the occurrence of subsequent events and cardiac death (probability of 2.56 and 2.17, respectively). The Mantel-Haenszel chi-square test showed that survival probability was significantly lower in the inducible group than in the noninductible group. The percentage of patients free of events was significantly higher in the noninducible group. CONCLUSION: Induction of SMVT during programmed ventricular stimulation was a predictor of arrhythmia occurrence cardiac death and general mortality in patients with CCC and NSVT.

Hazard assessment of storm events for the battery, New York

The environmental and socio-economic importance of coastal areas is widely recognized, but at present these areas face severe weaknesses and high-risk situations. The increased demand and growing human occupation of coastal zones have greatly contributed to exacerbating such weaknesses. Today, throughout the world, in all countries with coastal regions, episodes of waves overtopping and coastal flooding are frequent. These episodes are usually responsible for property losses and often put human lives at risk. The floods are caused by coastal storms primarily due to the action of very strong winds. The propagation of these storms towards the coast induces high water levels. It is expected that climate change phenomena will contribute to the intensification of coastal storms. In this context, an estimation of coastal flooding hazards is of paramount importance for the planning and management of coastal zones. Consequently, carrying out a series of storm scenarios and analyzing their impacts through numerical modeling is of prime interest to coastal decision-makers. Firstly, throughout this work, historical storm tracks and intensities are characterized for the northeastern region of United States coast, in terms of probability of occurrence. Secondly, several storm events with high potential of occurrence are generated using a specific tool of DelftDashboard interface for Delft3D software. Hydrodynamic models are then used to generate ensemble simulations to assess storms' effects on coastal water levels. For the United States’ northeastern coast, a highly refined regional domain is considered surrounding the area of The Battery, New York, situated in New York Harbor. Based on statistical data of numerical modeling results, a review of the impact of coastal storms to different locations within the study area is performed.