Dynamics and constraints of the massive graviton dark matter flat cosmologies

We discuss the dynamics of the Universe within the framework of the massive graviton cold dark matter scenario (MGCDM) in which gravitons are geometrically treated as massive particles. In this modified gravity theory, the main effect of the gravitons is to alter the density evolution of the cold dark matter component in such a way that the Universe evolves to an accelerating expanding regime, as presently observed. Tight constraints on the main cosmological parameters of the MGCDM model are derived by performing a joint likelihood analysis involving the recent supernovae type Ia data, the cosmic microwave background shift parameter, and the baryonic acoustic oscillations as traced by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey red luminous galaxies. The linear evolution of small density fluctuations is also analyzed in detail. It is found that the growth factor of the MGCDM model is slightly different (similar to 1-4%) from the one provided by the conventional flat Lambda CDM cosmology. The growth rate of clustering predicted by MGCDM and Lambda CDM models are confronted to the observations and the corresponding best fit values of the growth index (gamma) are also determined. By using the expectations of realistic future x-ray and Sunyaev-Zeldovich cluster surveys we derive the dark matter halo mass function and the corresponding redshift distribution of cluster-size halos for the MGCDM model. Finally, we also show that the Hubble flow differences between the MGCDM and the Lambda CDM models provide a halo redshift distribution departing significantly from the those predicted by other dark energy models. These results suggest that the MGCDM model can observationally be distinguished from Lambda CDM and also from a large number of dark energy models recently proposed in the literature.

Confronting dark energy models using galaxy cluster number counts

The mass function of cluster-size halos and their redshift distribution are computed for 12 distinct accelerating cosmological scenarios and confronted to the predictions of the conventional flat Lambda CDM model. The comparison with Lambda CDM is performed by a two-step process. First, we determine the free parameters of all models through a joint analysis involving the latest cosmological data, using supernovae type Ia, the cosmic microwave background shift parameter, and baryon acoustic oscillations. Apart from a braneworld inspired cosmology, it is found that the derived Hubble relation of the remaining models reproduces the Lambda CDM results approximately with the same degree of statistical confidence. Second, in order to attempt to distinguish the different dark energy models from the expectations of Lambda CDM, we analyze the predicted cluster-size halo redshift distribution on the basis of two future cluster surveys: (i) an X-ray survey based on the eROSITA satellite, and (ii) a Sunayev-Zeldovich survey based on the South Pole Telescope. As a result, we find that the predictions of 8 out of 12 dark energy models can be clearly distinguished from the Lambda CDM cosmology, while the predictions of 4 models are statistically equivalent to those of the Lambda CDM model, as far as the expected cluster mass function and redshift distribution are concerned. The present analysis suggests that such a technique appears to be very competitive to independent tests probing the late time evolution of the Universe and the associated dark energy effects.

Spiral-like structure at the centre of nearby clusters of galaxies

Context. X-ray data analysis have found that fairly complex structures at cluster centres are more common than expected. Many of these structures have similar morphologies, which exhibit spiral-like substructure. Aims. It is not yet well known how these structures are formed or maintained. Understanding the origin of these spiral-like features at the centre of some clusters is the major motivation behind this work. Methods. We analyse deep Chandra observations of 15 nearby galaxy clusters ( 0.01 < z < 0.06), and use X-ray temperature and substructure maps to detect small features at the cores of the clusters. Results. We detect spiral-like features at the centre of 7 clusters: A85, A426, A496, Hydra A cluster, Centaurus, Ophiuchus, and A4059. These patterns are similar to those found in numerical hydrodynamic simulations of cluster mergers with non-zero impact parameter. In some clusters of our sample, a strong radio source also occupies the inner region of the cluster, which indicates a possible connection between the two. Our investigation implies that these spiral-like structures may be caused by off-axis minor mergers. Since these features occur in regions of high density, they may confine radio emission from the central galaxy producing, in some cases, unusual radio morphology.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

The knowledge gap: A perspective on trade, industry, technology and policy from pre-war Australian music technology manufacturing (1903-30)

Australia struggles to achieve economic competitiveness, prevent expansion of the trade deficit and develop value-added production despite applications of policy strategies from protectionism to trade liberalisation. This article argues that these problems were emerging at the turn of the century, and that an investigation of music technology manufacturing in the first two decades of this century reveals fundamental problems in the conduct of relevant policy analysis. Analysis has focused on the trade or technology gap which is only symptomatic of an underlying knowledge gap. The article calls for a knowledge policy approach which can allow protection without the negative effects of isolation from global markets and without having to resort to unworkable utopian free-trade dogma. A shift of focus from a 'goods traded' view to a knowledge transaction (or diffusion) perspective is advocated.

Impact of increasing the re-supply interval on the seasonality of subsidised prescription use in Australia

Objective: To evaluate the impact of increasing the minimum resupply period for prescriptions on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) in November 1994. The intervention was designed to reduce the stockpiling of medicines used for chronic medical conditions under the PBS safety net. Methods: Interrupted times series regression analyses were performed on 114 months of PBS drug utilisation data from January 1991 to June 2000. These analyses assessed whether there had been a significant interaction between the onset of the intervention in November 1994 and the extreme levels of drug utilisation in the months of December (peak utilisation) and January (lowest utilisation) respectively. Both serial and 12-month lag autocorrelations were controlled for. Results: The onset of the intervention was associated with a significant reduction in the December peak in drug utilisation; after the introduction of the policy there were 1,150,196 fewer proscriptions on average or that month (95% Cl 708,333-1,592,059). There was, however, no significant change in the low level of utilisation in January. The effect of the policy appears to be decreasing across successive postintervention years. though the odds of a prescription being dispensed in December remained significantly lower in 1999 compared to each of the pre-intervention years (11% vs. 14%) Conclusion: Analysis of the impact of increasing the re-supply period for PBS prescriptions showed that the magnitude of peak utilisation in December had been markedly reduced by the policy, though this effect appears to be decreasing over time. Continued monitoring and policy review is warranted in order to ensure that the initial effect of the intervention be maintained.

Effect of removing user fees on attendance for curative and preventive primary health care services in rural South Africa

User fees are used to recover costs and discourage unnecessary attendance at primary care clinics in many developing countries. In South Africa, user fees for children aged under 6 yea rs and pregnant women were removed in 1994, and in 1997 all user fees at all primary health care clinics were abolished. The intention of these policy changes was to improve access to health services for previously disadvantaged communities. We investigated the impact of these changes on clinic attendance patterns in Hlabisa health district. Average quarterly new registrations and total attendances for preventive services (antenatal care, immunization, growth monitoring) and curative services (treatment of ailments) at a mobile primary health care unit were studied from 1992 to 1998. Regression analysis was undertaken to assess whether trends were statistically significant. There was a sustained increase in new registrations (P = 0.0001) and total attendances (P = 0.0001)for curative services, and a fall in new registrations (P = 0.01) and total attendances for immunization and growth monitoring (P = 0.0002) over the study period. The upturn in demand for curative services started at the time of the first policy change. The decreases in antenatal registrations (P = 0.07) and attendances (P = 0.09) were not statistically significant The number of new registrations for immunization and growth monitoring increased following the first policy change but declined thereafter. We found no evidence that the second policy change influenced underlying trends. The removal of user fees improved access to curative services but this may have happened at the expense of some preventive services. Governments should remain vigilant about the effects of new health policies in order to ensure that objectives are being met.

The economic determinants of the Brazilian nominal term structure of interest rates

The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. We estimate a near-VAR model under the identification scheme proposed by Christiano et al. (1996, 1999). The results resemble those of the US economy: monetary policy shocks that flatten the term structure of interest rates. We find that monetary policy shocks in Brazil explain a significantly larger share of the dynamics of the term structure than in the USA. Finally, we analyse the importance of standard macroeconomic variables (e. g. GDP, inflation and measure of country risk) to the dynamics of the term structure in Brazil.

Mediatizing educational policy: The journalistic field, science policy, and cross-field effects

This paper is concerned to demonstrate the usefulness of the theory of Bourdieu, including the concepts of field, logics of practice and habitus, to understanding relationships between media and policy, what Fairclough has called the 'mediatization' of policy. Specifically, the paper draws upon Bourdieu's accessible account of the journalistic field as outlined in On television and journalism. The usefulness of this work is illustrated through a case study of a recent Australian science policy, The chance to change. As this policy went through various iterations and media representations, its naming and structure became more aphoristic. This is the mediatization of contemporary policy, which often results in policy as sound bite. The case study also shows the cross-field effects of this policy in education, illustrating how today educational policy can be spawned from developments in other public policy fields.

An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.

Globalizing policy sociology in education: Working with Bourdieu

This paper uses Bourdieu to develop theorizing about policy processes in education and to extend the policy cycle approach in a time of globalization. Use is made of Bourdieu's concept of social field and the argument is sustained that in the context of globalization the field of educational policy has reduced autonomy, with enhanced cross-field effects in educational policy production, particularly from the fields of the economy and journalism. Given the social rather than geographical character of Bourdieu's concept of social fields, it is also argued that the concept can be, and indeed has to be, stretched beyond the nation to take account of the emergent global policy field in education. Utilizing Bourdieu's late work on the globalization of the economy through neo-liberal politics, we argue that a non-reified account of the emergent global educational policy field can be provided.

The threat of agroterrorism to Australia: A preliminary assessment

This article provides a preliminary assessment of the agroterrorism threat to Australia. Based on primary research conducted among Australia's biotechnology and agriculture sectors, it examines current threat scenarios and existing vulnerabilities within Australia. It argues that the threat of agroterrorism to Australia is real, and, for prudential reasons, should be taken more seriously by government authorities. The article concludes with a series of broad policy options to mitigate the threat of agroterrorism to Australia.

Deaths from cirrhosis in Poland and Hungary: The impact of different alcohol policies during the 1980s

Objective - To compare patterns of deaths from cirrhosis in Poland and Hungary in the context of differing alcohol policies in the 1980s. Design - Cohort analysis of deaths from chronic Liver disease and cirrhosis between 1959 and 1992 using mortality data from the World Health Organization database. Results - The pattern of alcohol related mortality in these countries is quite different. In both countries, death rates increased in the 1960s and 1970s. In Poland, this increase was arrested in 1980 and death rates have levelled out, with the exception of those in young females. In Hungary, rates have continued to climb, although the rate of increase decreased in the 1980s. This change coincides with the introduction of a policy, following the introduction of martial law, to reduce alcohol consumption. Conclusions - The countries of central and eastern Europe display many similarities in both political history and measures of health such as overall life expectancy. When examined more closely, substantial differences emerge. Policy makers must be cautious about adopting global solutions to health challenges that fail to take into account national variations.

Scale-free network of a dengue epidemic

In this work we show that the dengue epidemic in the city of Singapore organized itself into a scale-free network of transmission as the 2000-2005 outbreaks progressed. This scale-free network of cluster comprised geographical breeding places for the aedes mosquitoes, acting as super-spreaders nodes in a network of transmission. The geographical organization of the network was analysed by the corresponding distribution of weekly number of new cases. Therefore, our hypothesis is that the distribution of dengue cases reflects the geographical organization of a transmission network, which evolved towards a power law as the epidemic intensity progressed until 2005. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonhuman primate models and the failure of the Merck HIV-1 vaccine in humans

The adenovirus type 5 (Ad5)-based vaccine developed by Merck failed to either prevent HIV-1 infection or suppress viral load in subsequently infected subjects in the STEP human Phase 2b efficacy trial. Analogous vaccines had previously also failed in the simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) challenge-rhesus macaque model. In contrast, vaccine protection studies that used challenge with a chimeric simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV89.6P) in macaques did not predict the human trial results. Ad5 vector -based vaccines did not protect macaques from infection after SHIV89.6P challenge but did cause a substantial reduction in viral load and a preservation of CD4(+) T cell counts after infection, findings that were not reproduced in the human trials. Although the SIV challenge model is incompletely validated, we propose that its expanded use can help facilitate the prioritization of candidate HIV-1 vaccines, ensuring that resources are focused on the most promising candidates. Vaccine designers must now develop T cell vaccine strategies that reduce viral load after heterologous challenge.