Capital formation in machinery in Latin America, 1890-1930

Investment in machinery is a key aspect in the analysis of long-term economic growth during the era of the spread of industrialisation. But, historiography has only revealed what the pace of capital accumulation was in a few Latin American economies. This article offers continuous (annual) and consistent series on the magnitude of this investment in all of the Latin American countries for the period at the height of the first globalisation, 1890-1930. The paper gives special attention to comparative analysis, showing the differences that exist at the heart of the Latin American community, in the levels of capital formation in machinery as well as in the national development of this over time. The differences in the levels appear very indicative of the unequal degree of development reached by these economies. This article puts to test the hypothesis of intraregional divergence, obtaining the tentative result that there was divergence until 1913, but that there was convergence from 1914-1930.

A decomposition formula for option prices in the Heston model and applications to option pricing approximation

By means of classical Itô's calculus we decompose option prices asthe sum of the classical Black-Scholes formula with volatility parameterequal to the root-mean-square future average volatility plus a term dueby correlation and a term due to the volatility of the volatility. Thisdecomposition allows us to develop first and second-order approximationformulas for option prices and implied volatilities in the Heston volatilityframework, as well as to study their accuracy. Numerical examples aregiven.

Composition of electricity generation portfolios, pivotal dynamics and market prices

We use a simulation model to study how the diversification of electricity generation portfoliosinfluences wholesale prices. We find that technological diversification generally leads to lower market prices but that the relationship is mediated by the supply to demand ratio. In each demand case there is a threshold where pivotal dynamics change. Pivotal dynamics pre- and post-threshold are the cause of non-linearities in the influence of diversification on market prices. The findings are robust to our choice of behavioural parameters and match close-form solutions where those are available.

Money and prices in models of bounded rationality in high inflation economies

This paper studies the short run correlation of inflation and money growth. We study whether a model of learning can do better than a model of rational expectations, we focus our study on countries of high inflation. We take the money process as an exogenous variable, estimated from the data through a switching regime process. We findthat the rational expectations model and the model of learning both offer very good explanations for the joint behavior of money and prices.

Poor, hungry and ignorant: Numeracy and the impact of high food prices in industrializing Britain, 1780-1850

This paper uses the ability to recall one s age correctly as an indicator of numeracy.We show that low levels of nutrition impaired numeracy in industrializing England, 1780-1850.Numeracy declined markedly among those born during the war years, especially where wheatwas dear. England s nascent welfare state mitigated the negative effect of high food prices oncognitive skills. Nutrition during early development mattered for labor market outcomes:individuals born in periods or countries with high age heaping were more likely to sort intooccupations with limited intellectual requirements.

Drug innovation, prices and health

This article tries to reconcile economic-industrial policy with health policy when dealing with biomedical innovation and welfare state sustainability. Better health accounts for an increasingly large proportion of welfare improvements. Explanation is given to the welfare losses coming from the fact than industrial and health policy tend to ignore each other. Drug s prices reflecting their relative relative effectiveness send the right signal to the industry rewarding innovation with impact on quantity and quality of life- and to the buyers of health care services.The level of drug s public reimbursement indicates the social willingness to pay of the different national health systems, not only by means of inclusion, or rejection, in the basket of services covered, but especially establishing the proportion of the price that is going to be financed publicly.Reference pricing for therapeutic equivalents as the upper limit of the social willingness to pay- and two-tiered co-payments for users (avoidable and inversely related with the incremental effectiveness of de drug) are deemed appropriate for those countries concerned at the same time with increasing their productivity and maintaining its welfare state. Profits drive R&D but not its location. There is no intrinsic contradiction between high productivity and a consolidated National Health Service (welfare state) as the European Nordic Countries are telling us every day.

How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?

Self-reported home values are widely used as a measure of housing wealth by researchers employing a variety of data sets and studying a number of different individual and household level decisions. The accuracy of this measure is an open empirical question, and requires some type of market assessment of the values reported. In this research, we study the predictive power of self-reported housing wealth when estimating sales prices utilizing the Health and Retirement Study. We find that homeowners, on average, overestimate the value of their properties by between 5% and 10%. More importantly, we are the first to document a strong correlation between accuracy and the economic conditions at the time of the purchase of the property (measured by the prevalent interest rate, the growth of household income, and the growth of median housing prices). While most individuals overestimate the value of their properties, those who bought during more difficult economic times tend to be more accurate, and in some cases even underestimate the value of their house. These results establish a surprisingly strong, likely permanent, and in many cases long-lived, effect of the initial conditions surrounding the purchases of properties, on how individuals value them. This cyclicality of the overestimation of house prices can provide some explanations for the difficulties currently faced by many homeowners, who were expecting large appreciations in home value to rescue them in case of increases in interest rates which could jeopardize their ability to live up to their financial commitments.

How important are tobacco prices in the propensity to start and quit smoking? An analysis of smoking histories from the Spanish National Health Survey

This paper analyses the effect of tobacco prices on the propensity tostart and quit smoking using a pool of the 1993, 1995 and 1997 editionsof the Spanish National Health Surveys. The estimates for severalparametric models of the hazard rate for starting and quitting suggestthat i) The public health measures applied as of 1992 have had asignificative effect on both reducing the hazard of starting andincreasing the hazard of quitting, ii) Prices have a very weak effect onthe hazard of starting in the male population and no significant effectin the female population, iii) The price floor of cigarrettes, proxiedby the average price of a pack of black cigarrettes, has a significanteffect on the quitting hazard which is robust across specifications andapplies to both men and women. The implied price elasticity of the timeup to quitting is situated around -1.4.

Increasing returns, imperfect competition and factor prices

We show how, in general equilibrium models featuring increasing returns, imperfectcompetition and endogenous markups, changes in the scale of economic activity affectincome distribution across factors. Whenever final goods are gross-substitutes (gross-complements), a scale expansion raises (lowers) the relative reward of the scarce factoror the factor used intensively in the sector characterized by a higher degree of product differentiation and higher fixed costs. Under very reasonable hypothesis, our theory suggests that scale is skill-biased. This result provides a microfoundation for the secular increase in the relative demand for skilled labor. Moreover, it constitutes an important link among major explanations for the rise in wage inequality: skill-biased technical change, capital-skill complementarities and international trade. We provide new evidence on the mechanism underlying the skill bias of scale.

cAMP-dependent chloride secretion mediates tubule enlargement and cyst formation by cultured mammalian collecting duct cells.

Polycystic kidney diseases result from disruption of the genetically defined program that controls the size and geometry of renal tubules. Cysts which frequently arise from the collecting duct (CD) result from cell proliferation and fluid secretion. From mCCD(cl1) cells, a differentiated mouse CD cell line, we isolated a clonal subpopulation (mCCD-N21) that retains morphogenetic capacity. When grown in three-dimensional gels, mCCD-N21 cells formed highly organized tubular structures consisting of a palisade of polarized epithelial cells surrounding a cylindrical lumen. Subsequent addition of cAMP-elevating agents (forskolin or cholera toxin) or of membrane-permeable cAMP analogs (CPT-cAMP) resulted in rapid and progressive dilatation of existing tubules, leading to the formation of cystlike structures. When grown on filters, mCCD-N21 cells exhibited a high transepithelial resistance as well as aldosterone- and/or vasopressin-induced amiloride-sensitive and -insensitive current. The latter was in part inhibited by Na(+)-K(+)-2Cl(-) cotransporter (bumetanide) and chloride channel (NPPB) inhibitors. Real-time PCR analysis confirmed the expression of NKCC1, the ubiquitous Na(+)-K(+)-2Cl(-) cotransporter and cystic fibrosis transmembrane regulator (CFTR) in mCCD-N21 cells. Tubule enlargement and cyst formation were prevented by inhibitors of Na(+)-K(+)-2Cl(-) cotransporters (bumetanide or ethacrynic acid) or CFTR (NPPB or CFTR inhibitor-172). These results further support the notion that cAMP signaling plays a key role in renal cyst formation, at least in part by promoting chloride-driven fluid secretion. This new in vitro model of tubule-to-cyst conversion affords a unique opportunity for investigating the molecular mechanisms that govern the architecture of epithelial tubes, as well as for dissecting the pathophysiological processes underlying cystic kidney diseases.

Interleukin-12p40 overexpression promotes interleukin-12p70 and interleukin-23 formation but does not affect bacille Calmette-Guérin and Mycobacterium tuberculosis clearance.

Interleukin (IL)-12p40, a subunit of IL-12p70 and IL-23, has previously been shown to inhibit IL-12p70 activity and interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) production. However, recent evidence has suggested that the role of IL-12p40 is more complex. To study the contribution of IL-12p40 to immune responses against mycobacterial infections, we have used transgenic (tg) mice overexpressing IL-12p40 under the control of a major histocompatibility complex-II promoter. The IL-12p40 transgene was expressed during steady state at concentrations of 129 +/- 25 ng/ml of serum and 75 +/- 13 ng per spleen, while endogenous IL-12p40 was hardly detectable in control littermates. Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) infection strongly induced the expression of IL-12p40 transgene in infected organs, and IL-12p40 monomeric and dimeric forms were identified in spleen of IL-12p40 tg mice. Excessive production of IL-12p40 resulted in a 14-fold increase in IL-12p70 serum levels in tg mice versus non-transgenic mice. IL-23 was also strongly elevated in the serum and spleens of IL-12p40 tg mice through BCG infection. While IFN-gamma and tumour necrosis factor protein levels were similar in IL-12p40 tg and non-transgenic mice, Th2 type immune responses were reduced in IL-12p40 tg mice. The number of BCG granulomas and macrophage expressing inducible nitric oxide synthase were similar in IL-12p40 tg and non-transgenic mice. IL-12p40 tg mice were as resistant as non-transgenic mice to BCG and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections as they could efficiently control bacillary growth. These data show that high amounts of IL-12p40 promotes IL-12p70 and IL-23 formation, but that does not affect T helper 1 type immune responses and granuloma function, thus leading to normal mycobacterial clearance in infected organs.

Asset prices and the measurement of wealth and saving

The paper defines concepts of real wealth and saving which take into account the intertemporal index number problem that results from changing interest rates. Unlike conventional measures of real wealth, which are based on the market value of assets and ignore the index number problem, the new measure correctly reflects the changes in the welfare of households over time. An empirically operational approximation to the theoretical measure is provided and applied to US data. A major empirical finding is that US real financial wealth increased strongly in the 1980s, much more than is revealed by the market value of assets.

In-vitro testing of biofilm formation on infected bone grafts and bone substitutes

Background: Bacteria form biofilms on the surface of orthopaedic devices, causing persistent infections. Monitoring biofilm formation on bone grafts and bone substitutes is challenging due to heterogeneous surface characteristics. We analyzed various bone grafts and bone substitutes regarding their propensity for in-vitro biofilm formation caused by S. aureus and S. epidermidis. Methods: Beta-tricalciumphosphate (b-TCP, ChronOsTM), processed human spongiosa (TutoplastTM) and PMMA (PalacosTM) were investigated. PE was added as a growth control. As test strains S. aureus (ATCC 29213) and S. epidermidis RP62A (ATCC 35984) were used. Test materials were incubated with 105 cfu/ml. After 24 h, test materials were removed and washed, followed by a standardised sonication protocol. The resulting sonication fluid was plated and bacterial counts were enumerated and expressed as cfu/sample. Sonicated samples were transferred to a microcalorimeter (TA Instrument) and heat flow monitored over a 24 h period with a precision of 0.0001°C and a sensitiviy of 200 μW. Experiments were performed in triplicates to calculate the mean ± SD. One-way ANOVA analysis was used for statistical analysis. Results: Bacterial counts (log10 cfu/sample) were highest on b-TCP (S. aureus 7.67 ± 0.17; S. epidermidis 8.14 ± 0.05) while bacterial density (log10 cfu/surface) was highest on PMMA (S. aureus 6.12 ± 0.2, S. epidermidis 7.65 ± 0.13). Detection time for S. aureus biofilms was shorter for the porous materials (b-TCP and Tutoplast, p <0.001) compared to the smooth materials (PMMA and PE) with no differences between b-TCP and TutoplastTM (p >0.05) or PMMA and PE (p >0.05). In contrast, for S. epidermidis biofilms the detection time was different (p <0.001) between all materials except between Tutoplast and PE (p >0.05). Conclusion: Our results demonstrate biofilm formation with both strains on all tested materials. Microcalorimetry was able to detect quantitatively the amount of biofilm. Further studies are needed to see whether calorimetry is a suitable tool also to monitor approaches to prevent and treat infections associated with bone grafts and bone substitutes.

Adaptive sequence evolution in a color gene involved in the formation of the characteristic egg-dummies of male haplochromine cichlid fishes.

BACKGROUND: The exceptionally diverse species flocks of cichlid fishes in East Africa are prime examples of parallel adaptive radiations. About 80% of East Africa's more than 1 800 endemic cichlid species, and all species of the flocks of Lakes Victoria and Malawi, belong to a particularly rapidly evolving lineage, the haplochromines. One characteristic feature of the haplochromines is their possession of egg-dummies on the males' anal fins. These egg-spots mimic real eggs and play an important role in the mating system of these maternal mouthbrooding fish. RESULTS: Here, we show that the egg-spots of haplochromines are made up of yellow pigment cells, xanthophores, and that a gene coding for a type III receptor tyrosine kinase, colony-stimulating factor 1 receptor a (csf1ra), is expressed in egg-spot tissue. Molecular evolutionary analyses reveal that the extracellular ligand-binding and receptor-interacting domain of csf1ra underwent adaptive sequence evolution in the ancestral lineage of the haplochromines, coinciding with the emergence of egg-dummies. We also find that csf1ra is expressed in the egg-dummies of a distantly related cichlid species, the ectodine cichlid Ophthalmotilapia ventralis, in which markings with similar functions evolved on the pelvic fin in convergence to those of the haplochromines. CONCLUSION: We conclude that modifications of existing signal transduction mechanisms might have evolved in the haplochromine lineage in association with the origination of anal fin egg-dummies. That positive selection has acted during the evolution of a color gene that seems to be involved in the morphogenesis of a sexually selected trait, the egg-dummies, highlights the importance of further investigations of the comparative genomic basis of the phenotypic diversification of cichlid fishes.