Predictive Capability of HPV and Pap Tests in Screening for Cervical Cancer over a Three-Year Follow-up

Purpose To compare the predictive capability of HPV and Pap smear tests for screening pre-cancerous lesions of the cervix over a three-year follow-up, in a population of users of the Brazilian National Health System (SUS). Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of 2,032 women with satisfactory results for Pap smear and HPV tests using second-generation hybrid capture,made in a previous study. We followed them for 36 months with data obtained from medical records, the Cervix Cancer Information System (SISCOLO), and the Mortality Information System (SIM). The outcome was a histological diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more advanced lesions (CIN2ş). We constructed progression curves of the baseline test results for the period, using the Kaplan-Meier method, and estimated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios for each test. Results A total of 1,440 women had at least one test during follow-up. Progression curves of the baseline test results indicated differences in capability to detect CIN2ş (p < 0.001) with significantly greater capability when both tests were abnormal, followed by only a positive HPV test. The HPV test was more sensitive than the Pap smear (88.7% and 73.6%, respectively; p < 0.05) and had a better negative likelihood ratio (0.13 and 0.30, respectively). Specificity and positive likelihood ratio of the tests were similar. Conclusions These findings corroborate the importance of HPV test as a primary cervical cancer screening.

The prognostic and predictive value of selected biomarkers in colorectal cancer

Tissue-based biomarkers are studied to receive information about the pathologic processes and cancer outcome, and to enable development of patient-tailored treatments. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential prognostic and/or predictive value of selected biomarkers in colorectal cancer (CRC). Group IIA secretory phospholipase A2 (IIA PLA2) expression was assessed in 114 samples presenting different phases of human colorectal carcinogenesis. Securin, Ki-67, CD44 variant 6 (CD44v6), aldehyde dehydrogenase 1 (ALDH1) and β-catenin were studied in a material including 227 rectal carcinoma patients treated with short-course preoperative radiotherapy (RT), long-course preoperative (chemo)RT (CRT) or surgery only. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene copy number (GCN), its heterogeneity in CRC tissue, and association with response to EGFR-targeted antibodies cetuximab and panitumumab were analyzed in a cohort of 76 metastatic CRC. IIA PLA2 expression was decreased in invasive carcinomas compared to adenomas, but did not relate to patient survival. High securin expression after long-course (C)RT and high ALDH1 expression in node-negative rectal cancer were independent adverse prognostic factors, ALDH1 specifically in patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. The lack of membranous CD44v6 in the rectal cancer invasive front associated with infiltrative growth pattern and the risk of disease recurrence. Heterogeneous EGFR GCN increase predicted benefit from EGFR-targeted antibodies, also in the chemorefractory patient population. In summary, high securin and ALDH1 protein expression independently relate to poor outcome in subgroups of rectal cancer patients, potentially because of resistance to conventional chemotherapeutics. Heterogeneous increase in EGFR GCN was validated to be a promising predictive factor in the treatment of metastatic CRC.

On Bayesian predictive modeling : with applications on the analysis of chromatography data in forensic investigations

Med prediktion avses att man skattar det framtida värdet på en observerbar storhet. Kännetecknande för det bayesianska paradigmet är att osäkerhet gällande okända storheter uttrycks i form av sannolikheter. En bayesiansk prediktiv modell är således en sannolikhetsfördelning över de möjliga värden som en observerbar, men ännu inte observerad storhet kan anta. I de artiklar som ingår i avhandlingen utvecklas metoder, vilka bl.a. tillämpas i analys av kromatografiska data i brottsutredningar. Med undantag för den första artikeln, bygger samtliga metoder på bayesiansk prediktiv modellering. I artiklarna betraktas i huvudsak tre olika typer av problem relaterade till kromatografiska data: kvantifiering, parvis matchning och klustring. I den första artikeln utvecklas en icke-parametrisk modell för mätfel av kromatografiska analyser av alkoholhalt i blodet. I den andra artikeln utvecklas en prediktiv inferensmetod för jämförelse av två stickprov. Metoden tillämpas i den tredje artik eln för jämförelse av oljeprover i syfte att kunna identifiera den förorenande källan i samband med oljeutsläpp. I den fjärde artikeln härleds en prediktiv modell för klustring av data av blandad diskret och kontinuerlig typ, vilken bl.a. tillämpas i klassificering av amfetaminprover med avseende på produktionsomgångar.

Hypomagnesemia in critically ill cancer patients: a prospective study of predictive factors

Hypomagnesemia is the most common electrolyte disturbance seen upon admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Reliable predictors of its occurrence are not described. The objective of this prospective study was to determine factors predictive of hypomagnesemia upon admission to the ICU. In a single tertiary cancer center, 226 patients with different diagnoses upon entering were studied. Hypomagnesemia was defined by serum levels <1.5 mg/dl. Demographic data, type of cancer, cause of admission, previous history of arrhythmia, cardiovascular disease, renal failure, drug administration (particularly diuretics, antiarrhythmics, chemotherapy and platinum compounds), previous nutrition intake and presence of hypovolemia were recorded for each patient. Blood was collected for determination of serum magnesium, potassium, sodium, calcium, phosphorus, blood urea nitrogen and creatinine levels. Upon admission, 103 (45.6%) patients had hypomagnesemia and 123 (54.4%) had normomagnesemia. A normal dietary habit prior to ICU admission was associated with normal Mg levels (P = 0.007) and higher average levels of serum Mg (P = 0.002). Postoperative patients (N = 182) had lower levels of serum Mg (0.60 ± 0.14 mmol/l compared with 0.66 ± 0.17 mmol/l, P = 0.006). A stepwise multiple linear regression disclosed that only normal dietary habits (OR = 0.45; CI = 0.26-0.79) and the fact of being a postoperative patient (OR = 2.42; CI = 1.17-4.98) were significantly correlated with serum Mg levels (overall model probability = 0.001). These findings should be used to identify patients at risk for such disturbance, even in other critically ill populations.

Effect of the aerobic capacity on the validity of the anaerobic threshold for determination of the maximal lactate steady state in cycling

The maximal lactate steady state (MLSS) is the highest blood lactate concentration that can be identified as maintaining a steady state during a prolonged submaximal constant workload. The objective of the present study was to analyze the influence of the aerobic capacity on the validity of anaerobic threshold (AT) to estimate the exercise intensity at MLSS (MLSS intensity) during cycling. Ten untrained males (UC) and 9 male endurance cyclists (EC) matched for age, weight and height performed one incremental maximal load test to determine AT and two to four 30-min constant submaximal load tests on a mechanically braked cycle ergometer to determine MLSS and MLSS intensity. AT was determined as the intensity corresponding to 3.5 mM blood lactate. MLSS intensity was defined as the highest workload at which blood lactate concentration did not increase by more than 1 mM between minutes 10 and 30 of the constant workload. MLSS intensity (EC = 282.1 ± 23.8 W; UC = 180.2 ± 24.5 W) and AT (EC = 274.8 ± 24.9 W; UC = 187.2 ± 28.0 W) were significantly higher in trained group. However, there was no significant difference in MLSS between EC (5.0 ± 1.2 mM) and UC (4.9 ± 1.7 mM). The MLSS intensity and AT were not different and significantly correlated in both groups (EC: r = 0.77; UC: r = 0.81). We conclude that MLSS and the validity of AT to estimate MLSS intensity during cycling, analyzed in a cross-sectional design (trained x sedentary), do not depend on the aerobic capacity.

Reliability and validity of a Portuguese version of the Young Mania Rating Scale

The reliability and validity of a Portuguese version of the Young Mania Rating Scale were evaluated. The original scale was translated into and adapted to Portuguese by the authors. Definitions of clinical manifestations, a semi-structured anchored interview and more explicit rating criteria were added to the scale. Fifty-five adult subjects, aged 18 to 60 years, with a diagnosis of Current Manic Episode according to DSM-III-R criteria were assessed using the Young Mania Rating Scale as well as the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale in two sessions held at intervals from 7 to 10 days. Good reliability ratings were obtained, with intra-class correlation coefficient of 0.97 for total scores, and levels of agreement above 0.80 (P < 0.001) for all individual items. Internal consistency analysis resulted in an alpha = 0.67 for the scale as a whole, and an alpha = 0.72 for each standardized item (P < 0.001). For the concurrent validity, a correlation of 0.78 was obtained by the Pearson coefficient between the total scores of the Young Mania Rating Scale and Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale. The results are similar to those reported for the English version, indicating that the Portuguese version of the scale constitutes a reliable and valid instrument for the assessment of manic patients.

Correlation of serum leptin and insulin levels of pregnant protein-restricted rats with predictive obesity variables

During pregnancy and protein restriction, changes in serum insulin and leptin levels, food intake and several metabolic parameters normally result in enhanced adiposity. We evaluated serum leptin and insulin levels and their correlations with some predictive obesity variables in Wistar rats (90 days), up to the 14th day of pregnancy: control non-pregnant (N = 5) and pregnant (N = 7) groups (control diet: 17% protein), and low-protein non-pregnant (N = 5) and pregnant (N = 6) groups (low-protein diet: 6%). Independent of the protein content of the diet, pregnancy increased total (F1,19 = 22.28, P < 0.001) and relative (F1,19 = 5.57, P < 0.03) food intake, the variation of weight (F1,19 = 49.79, P < 0.000) and final body weight (F1,19 = 19.52, P < 0.001), but glycemia (F1,19 = 9.02, P = 0.01) and the relative weight of gonadal adipose tissue (F1,19 = 17.11, P < 0.001) were decreased. Pregnancy (F1,19 = 18.13, P < 0.001) and low-protein diet (F1,19 = 20.35, P < 0.001) increased the absolute weight of brown adipose tissue. However, the relative weight of this tissue was increased only by protein restriction (F1,19 = 15.20, P < 0.001) and the relative lipid in carcass was decreased in low-protein groups (F1,19 = 4.34, P = 0.05). Serum insulin and leptin levels were similar among groups and did not correlate with food intake. However, there was a positive relationship between serum insulin levels and carcass fat depots in low-protein groups (r = 0.37, P < 0.05), while in pregnancy serum leptin correlated with weight of gonadal (r = 0.39, P < 0.02) and retroperitoneal (r = 0.41, P < 0.01) adipose tissues. Unexpectedly, protein restriction during 14 days of pregnancy did not alter the serum profile of adiposity signals and their effects on food intake and adiposity, probably due to the short term of exposure to low-protein diet.

An HPLC-UV method for the measurement of permeability of marker drugs in the Caco-2 cell assay

The Caco-2 cell line has been used as a model to predict the in vitro permeability of the human intestinal barrier. The predictive potential of the assay relies on an appropriate in-house validation of the method. The objective of the present study was to develop a single HPLC-UV method for the identification and quantitation of marker drugs and to determine the suitability of the Caco-2 cell permeability assay. A simple chromatographic method was developed for the simultaneous determination of both passively (propranolol, carbamazepine, acyclovir, and hydrochlorothiazide) and actively transported drugs (vinblastine and verapamil). Separation was achieved on a C18 column with step-gradient elution (acetonitrile and aqueous solution of ammonium acetate, pH 3.0) at a flow rate of 1.0 mL/min and UV detection at 275 nm during the total run time of 35 min. The method was validated and found to be specific, linear, precise, and accurate. This chromatographic system can be readily used on a routine basis and its utilization can be extended to other permeability models. The results obtained in the Caco-2 bi-directional transport experiments confirmed the validity of the assay, given that high and low permeability profiles were identified, and P-glycoprotein functionality was established.

Reliability and validity of heart rate variability threshold assessment during an incremental shuttle-walk test in middle-aged and older adults

Studies on the assessment of heart rate variability threshold (HRVT) during walking are scarce. We determined the reliability and validity of HRVT assessment during the incremental shuttle walk test (ISWT) in healthy subjects. Thirty-one participants aged 57 ± 9 years (17 females) performed 3 ISWTs. During the 1st and 2nd ISWTs, instantaneous heart rate variability was calculated every 30 s and HRVT was measured. Walking velocity at HRVT in these tests (WV-HRVT1 and WV-HRVT2) was registered. During the 3rd ISWT, physiological responses were assessed. The ventilatory equivalents were used to determine ventilatory threshold (VT) and the WV at VT (WV-VT) was recorded. The difference between WV-HRVT1 and WV-HRVT2 was not statistically significant (median and interquartile range = 4.8; 4.8 to 5.4 vs4.8; 4.2 to 5.4 km/h); the correlation between WV-HRVT1 and WV-HRVT2 was significant (r = 0.84); the intraclass correlation coefficient was high (0.92; 0.82 to 0.96), and the agreement was acceptable (-0.08 km/h; -0.92 to 0.87). The difference between WV-VT and WV-HRVT2 was not statistically significant (4.8; 4.8 to 5.4 vs 4.8; 4.2 to 5.4 km/h) and the agreement was acceptable (0.04 km/h; -1.28 to 1.36). HRVT assessment during walking is a reliable measure and permits the estimation of VT in adults. We suggest the use of the ISWT for the assessment of exercise capacity in middle-aged and older adults.

Predictive significance of standardized uptake value parameters of FDG-PET in patients with non-small cell lung carcinoma

18F-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) is widely used to diagnose and stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the predictive ability of different FDG standardized uptake values (SUVs) in 74 patients with newly diagnosed NSCLC. 18F-FDG PET/CT scans were performed and different SUV parameters (SUVmax, SUVavg, SUVT/L, and SUVT/A) obtained, and their relationship with clinical characteristics were investigated. Meanwhile, correlation and multiple stepwise regression analyses were performed to determine the primary predictor of SUVs for NSCLC. Age, gender, and tumor size significantly affected SUV parameters. The mean SUVs of squamous cell carcinoma were higher than those of adenocarcinoma. Poorly differentiated tumors exhibited higher SUVs than well-differentiated ones. Further analyses based on the pathologic type revealed that the SUVmax, SUVavg, and SUVT/L of poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma tumors were higher than those of moderately or well-differentiated tumors. Among these four SUV parameters, SUVT/Lwas the primary predictor for tumor differentiation. However, in adenocarcinoma, SUVmax was the determining factor for tumor differentiation. Our results showed that these four SUV parameters had predictive significance related to NSCLC tumor differentiation; SUVT/L appeared to be most useful overall, but SUVmax was the best index for adenocarcinoma tumor differentiation.

Stability and predictive ability of beta

The purpose of this paper is to examine the stability and predictive abilities of the beta coefficients of individual equities in the Finnish stock market. As beta is widely used in several areas of finance, including risk management, asset pricing and performance evaluation among others, it is important to understand its characteristics and find out whether its estimates can be trusted and utilized.