Prediction of psychosis in adolescents and young adults at high risk: results from the prospective European prediction of psychosis study

Indicated prevention is currently regarded as the most promising strategy to attenuate, delay, or even avert psychosis. Existing criteria need improvement in terms of specificity and individual risk assessment to allow for better targeted and earlier interventions.

Poor performance of microbiological sampling in the prediction of recurrent arthroplasty infection

During a two-stage revision for prosthetic joint infections (PJI), joint aspirations, open tissue sampling and serum inflammatory markers are performed before re-implantation to exclude ongoing silent infection. We investigated the performance of these diagnostic procedures on the risk of recurrence of PJI among asymptomatic patients undergoing a two-stage revision. A total of 62 PJI were found in 58 patients. All patients had intra-operative surgical exploration during re-implantation, and 48 of them had intra-operative microbiological swabs. Additionally, 18 joint aspirations and one open biopsy were performed before second-stage reimplantation. Recurrence or persistence of PJI occurred in 12 cases with a mean delay of 218 days after re-implantation, but only four pre- or intraoperative invasive joint samples had grown a pathogen in cultures. In at least seven recurrent PJIs (58%), patients had a normal C-reactive protein (CRP, < 10 mg/l) level before re-implantation. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive values of pre-operative invasive joint aspiration and CRP for the prediction of PJI recurrence was 0.58, 0.88, 0.5, 0.84 and 0.17, 0.81, 0.13, 0.86, respectively. As a conclusion, pre-operative joint aspiration, intraoperative bacterial sampling, surgical exploration and serum inflammatory markers are poor predictors of PJI recurrence. The onset of reinfection usually occurs far later than reimplantation.

Metabolic imaging allows early prediction of response to vandetanib

The RET (rearranged-during-transfection protein) protooncogene triggers multiple intracellular signaling cascades regulating cell cycle progression and cellular metabolism. We therefore hypothesized that metabolic imaging could allow noninvasive detection of response to the RET inhibitor vandetanib in vivo.

Screening and prediction of erosive potential

The literature on the erosive potential of drinks and other products is summarised, and aspects of the conduct of screening tests as well as possible correlations of the erosive potential with various solution parameters are discussed. The solution parameters that have been suggested as important include pH, acid concentration (with respect to buffer capacity and concentration of undissociated acid), degree of saturation, calcium and phosphate concentrations, and inhibitors of erosion. Based on the available data, it is concluded that the dominant factor in erosion is pH. The effect of buffer capacity seems to be pH dependent. The degree of saturation probably has a non-linear relationship with erosion. While calcium at elevated concentrations is known to reduce erosion effectively, it is not known whether it is important at naturally occurring concentrations. Fluoride at naturally occurring concentrations is inversely correlated with erosive potential, but phosphate is probably not. Natural plant gums, notably pectin, do not inhibit erosion, so they are unlikely to interfere with the prediction of erosive potential. The non-linearity of some solution factors and interactions with pH need to be taken into account when developing multivariate models for predicting the erosive potential of different solutions. Finally, the erosive potential of solutions towards enamel and dentine might differ.

Prediction of Psychosis by Mismatch Negativity

BACKGROUND: To develop risk-adapted prevention of psychosis, an accurate estimation of the individual risk of psychosis at a given time is needed. Inclusion of biological parameters into multilevel prediction models is thought to improve predictive accuracy of models on the basis of clinical variables. To this aim, mismatch negativity (MMN) was investigated in a sample clinically at high risk, comparing individuals with and without subsequent conversion to psychosis. METHODS: At baseline, an auditory oddball paradigm was used in 62 subjects meeting criteria of a late risk at-state who remained antipsychotic-naive throughout the study. Median follow-up period was 32 months (minimum of 24 months in nonconverters, n = 37). Repeated-measures analysis of covariance was employed to analyze the MMN recorded at frontocentral electrodes; additional comparisons with healthy controls (HC, n = 67) and first-episode schizophrenia patients (FES, n = 33) were performed. Predictive value was evaluated by a Cox regression model. RESULTS: Compared with nonconverters, duration MMN in converters (n = 25) showed significantly reduced amplitudes across the six frontocentral electrodes; the same applied in comparison with HC, but not FES, whereas the duration MMN in in nonconverters was comparable to HC and larger than in FES. A prognostic score was calculated based on a Cox regression model and stratified into two risk classes, which showed significantly different survival curves. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate the duration MMN is significantly reduced in at-risk subjects converting to first-episode psychosis compared with nonconverters and may contribute not only to the prediction of conversion but also to a more individualized risk estimation and thus risk-adapted prevention.

Prediction of Accurate Anharmonic Experimental Vibrational Frequencies for Water Clusters, (H2O)n, n = 2−5

Accurate anharmonic experimental vibrational frequencies for water clusters consisting of 2−5 water molecules have been predicted on the basis of comparing different methods with MP2/aug-cc-pVTZ calculated and experimental anharmonic frequencies. The combination of using HF/6-31G* scaled frequencies for intramolecular modes and anharmonic frequencies for intermolecular modes gives excellent agreement with experiment for the water dimer and trimer and are as good as the expensive anharmonic MP2 calculations. The water trimer, the cyclic Ci and S4 tetramers, and the cyclic pentamer all have unique peaks in the infrared spectrum between 500 and 800 cm-1 and between 3400 and 3700 cm-1. Under the right experimental conditions these different clusters can be uniquely identified using high-resolution IR spectroscopy.

Exploration of the Potential Energy Surfaces, Prediction of Atmospheric Concentrations, and Prediction of Vibrational Spectra for the HO2···(H2O)n (n = 1−2) Hydrogen Bonded Complexes

The hydroperoxy radical (HO2) plays a critical role in Earth's atmospheric chemistry as a component of many important reactions. The self-reaction of hydroperoxy radicals in the gas phase is strongly affected by the presence of water vapor. In this work, we explore the potential energy surfaces of hydroperoxy radicals hydrogen bonded to one or two water molecules, and predict atmospheric concentrations and vibrational spectra of these complexes. We predict that when the HO2 concentration is on the order of 108molecules·cm-3 at 298 K, that the number of HO2···H2O complexes is on the order of 107molecules·cm-3 and the number of HO2···(H2O)2 complexes is on the order of 106molecules·cm-3. Using the computed abundance of HO2···H2O, we predict that, at 298 K, the bimolecular rate constant for HO2···H2O + HO2 is about 10 times that for HO2 + HO2.

Prediction of bone strength at the distal tibia by HR-pQCT and DXA

Areal bone mineral density (aBMD) at the distal tibia, measured at the epiphysis (T-EPI) and diaphysis (T-DIA), is predictive for fracture risk. Structural bone parameters evaluated at the distal tibia by high resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) displayed differences between healthy and fracture patients. With its simple geometry, T-DIA may allow investigating the correlation between bone structural parameter and bone strength.

Impact of random and systematic recall errors and selection bias in case--control studies on mobile phone use and brain tumors in adolescents (CEFALO study)

Whether the use of mobile phones is a risk factor for brain tumors in adolescents is currently being studied. Case--control studies investigating this possible relationship are prone to recall error and selection bias. We assessed the potential impact of random and systematic recall error and selection bias on odds ratios (ORs) by performing simulations based on real data from an ongoing case--control study of mobile phones and brain tumor risk in children and adolescents (CEFALO study). Simulations were conducted for two mobile phone exposure categories: regular and heavy use. Our choice of levels of recall error was guided by a validation study that compared objective network operator data with the self-reported amount of mobile phone use in CEFALO. In our validation study, cases overestimated their number of calls by 9% on average and controls by 34%. Cases also overestimated their duration of calls by 52% on average and controls by 163%. The participation rates in CEFALO were 83% for cases and 71% for controls. In a variety of scenarios, the combined impact of recall error and selection bias on the estimated ORs was complex. These simulations are useful for the interpretation of previous case-control studies on brain tumor and mobile phone use in adults as well as for the interpretation of future studies on adolescents.

Real-time adaptive models for the personalized prediction of glycemic profile in type 1 diabetes patients

Prediction of glycemic profile is an important task for both early recognition of hypoglycemia and enhancement of the control algorithms for optimization of insulin infusion rate. Adaptive models for glucose prediction and recognition of hypoglycemia based on statistical and artificial intelligence techniques are presented.

Genome-wide prediction of childhood asthma and related phenotypes in a longitudinal birth cohort

Childhood wheezing and asthma vary greatly in clinical presentation and time course. The extent to which phenotypic variation reflects heterogeneity in disease pathways is unclear.