905 resultados para Population balance model (PBM)
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Given the very large amount of data obtained everyday through population surveys, much of the new research again could use this information instead of collecting new samples. Unfortunately, relevant data are often disseminated into different files obtained through different sampling designs. Data fusion is a set of methods used to combine information from different sources into a single dataset. In this article, we are interested in a specific problem: the fusion of two data files, one of which being quite small. We propose a model-based procedure combining a logistic regression with an Expectation-Maximization algorithm. Results show that despite the lack of data, this procedure can perform better than standard matching procedures.
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Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.
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INTRODUCTION The Rasch model is increasingly used in the field of rehabilitation because it improves the accuracy of measurements of patient status and their changes after therapy. OBJECTIVE To determine the long-term effectiveness of a holistic neuropsychological rehabilitation program for Spanish outpatients with acquired brain injury (ABI) using Rasch analysis. METHODS Eighteen patients (ten with long evolution - patients who started the program > 6 months after ABI- and eight with short evolution) and their relatives attended the program for 6 months. Patients' and relatives' answers to the European Brain Injury Questionnaire and the Frontal Systems Behavior Scale at 3 time points (pre-intervention. post-intervention and 12 month follow-up) were transformed into linear measures called logits. RESULTS The linear measures revealed significant improvements with large effects at the follow-up assessment on cognitive and executive functioning, social and emotional self-regulation, apathy and mood. At follow-up, the short evolution group achieved greater improvements in mood and cognitive functioning than the long evolution patients. CONCLUSIONS The program showed long-term effectiveness for most of the variables, and it was more effective for mood and cognitive functioning when patients were treated early. Relatives played a key role in the effectiveness of the rehabilitation program.
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In this review, we analyse the impact of a population and evolutionary genetics approach on the study of insect behaviour. Our attention is focused on the model organism Drosophila melanogaster and several other insect species. In particular, we explore the relationship between rhythmic behaviours and the molecular evolution of clock and ion channel genes.
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BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence suggests a mechanistic link between the glycemic environment and renal and cardiovascular events, even below the threshold for diabetes. We aimed to assess the association between HbA1c and chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: A cross-sectional study involving a random representative sample of 2270 adults from southern Spain (Malaga) was undertaken. We measured HbA1c, serum creatinine and albuminuria in fasting blood and urine samples. RESULTS: Individuals without diabetes in the upper HbA1c tertile had an unfavorable cardiovascular and renal profile and shared certain clinical characteristics with the patients with diabetes. Overall, a higher HbA1c concentration was strongly associated with CKD or CVD after adjustment for traditional risk factors. The patients with known diabetes had a 2-fold higher odds of CKD or CVD. However, when both parameters were introduced in the same model, the HbA1c concentration was only significantly associated with clinical endpoints (OR: 1.4, 95% CI, 1.1-1.6, P = 0.002). An increase in HbA1c of one percentage point was associated with a 30% to 40% increase in the rate of CKD or CVD. This relationship was apparent in persons with and without known diabetes. ROC curves illustrated that a HbA1c of 37 mmol/mol (5.5%) was the optimal value in terms of sensitivity and specificity for predicting endpoints in this population. CONCLUSION: HbA1c levels were associated with a higher prevalence of CKD and CVD cross-sectionally, regardless of diabetes status. These data support the value of HbA1c as a marker of cardiovascular and renal disease in the general population.
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AIM: This study aims to investigate the clinical and demographic factors influencing gentamicin pharmacokinetics in a large cohort of unselected premature and term newborns and to evaluate optimal regimens in this population. METHODS: All gentamicin concentration data, along with clinical and demographic characteristics, were retrieved from medical charts in a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit over 5 years within the frame of a routine therapeutic drug monitoring programme. Data were described using non-linear mixed-effects regression analysis ( nonmem®). RESULTS: A total of 3039 gentamicin concentrations collected in 994 preterm and 455 term newborns were included in the analysis. A two compartment model best characterized gentamicin disposition. The average parameter estimates, for a median body weight of 2170 g, were clearance (CL) 0.089 l h(-1) (CV 28%), central volume of distribution (Vc ) 0.908 l (CV 18%), intercompartmental clearance (Q) 0.157 l h(-1) and peripheral volume of distribution (Vp ) 0.560 l. Body weight, gestational age and post-natal age positively influenced CL. Dopamine co-administration had a significant negative effect on CL, whereas the influence of indomethacin and furosemide was not significant. Both body weight and gestational age significantly influenced Vc . Model-based simulations confirmed that, compared with term neonates, preterm infants need higher doses, superior to 4 mg kg(-1) , at extended intervals to achieve adequate concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: This observational study conducted in a large cohort of newborns confirms the importance of body weight and gestational age for dosage adjustment. The model will serve to set up dosing recommendations and elaborate a Bayesian tool for dosage individualization based on concentration monitoring.
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Escherichia coli is commonly involved in infections with a heavy bacterial burden. Piperacillin-tazobactam and carbapenems are among the recommended empirical treatments for health care-associated complicated intra-abdominal infections. In contrast to amoxicillin-clavulanate, both have reduced in vitro activity in the presence of high concentrations of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing and non-ESBL-producing E. coli bacteria. Our goal was to compare the efficacy of these antimicrobials against different concentrations of two clinical E. coli strains, one an ESBL-producer and the other a non-ESBL-producer, in a murine sepsis model. An experimental sepsis model {~5.5 log10 CFU/g [low inoculum concentration (LI)] or ~7.5 log(10) CFU/g [high inoculum concentration (HI)]} using E. coli strains ATCC 25922 (non-ESBL producer) and Ec1062 (CTX-M-14 producer), which are susceptible to the three antimicrobials, was used. Amoxicillin-clavulanate (50/12.5 mg/kg given intramuscularly [i.m.]), piperacillin-tazobactam (25/3.125 mg/kg given intraperitoneally [i.p.]), and imipenem (30 mg/kg i.m.) were used. Piperacillin-tazobactam and imipenem reduced spleen ATCC 25922 strain concentrations (-2.53 and -2.14 log10 CFU/g [P < 0.05, respectively]) in the HI versus LI groups, while amoxicillin-clavulanate maintained its efficacy (-1.01 log10 CFU/g [no statistically significant difference]). Regarding the Ec1062 strain, the antimicrobials showed lower efficacy in the HI than in the LI groups: -0.73, -1.89, and -1.62 log10 CFU/g (P < 0.05, for piperacillin-tazobactam, imipenem, and amoxicillin-clavulanate, respectively, although imipenem and amoxicillin-clavulanate were more efficacious than piperacillin-tazobactam). An adapted imipenem treatment (based on the time for which the serum drug concentration remained above the MIC obtained with a HI of the ATCC 25922 strain) improved its efficacy to -1.67 log10 CFU/g (P < 0.05). These results suggest that amoxicillin-clavulanate could be an alternative to imipenem treatment of infections caused by ESBL- and non-ESBL-producing E. coli strains in patients with therapeutic failure with piperacillin-tazobactam.
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This paper aims to provide empirical support for the use of the principal-agent framework in the analysis of public sector and public policies. After reviewing the different conditions to be met for a relevant analysis of the relationship between population and government using the principal-agent theory, our paper focuses on the assumption of conflicting goals between the principal and the agent. A principal-agent analysis assumes in effect that inefficiencies may arise because principal and agent pursue different goals. Using data collected during an amalgamation project of two Swiss municipalities, we show the existence of a gap between the goals of the population and those of the government. Consequently, inefficiencies as predicted by the principal-agent model may arise during the implementation of a public policy, i.e. an amalgamation project. In a context of direct democracy where policies are regularly subjected to referendum, the conflict of objectives may even lead to a total failure of the policy at the polls.
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We test the hypothesis that PARP inhibition can decrease acute tubular necrosis (ATN) and other renal lesions related to prolonged cold ischemia/reperfusion (IR) in kidneys preserved at 4°C in University of Wisconsin (UW) solution. Material and Methods. We used 30 male Parp1(+/+) wild-type and 15 male Parp1(0/0) knockout C57BL/6 mice. Fifteen of these wild-type mice were pretreated with 3,4-dihydro-5-[4-(1-piperidinyl)butoxyl]-1(2H)-isoquinolinone (DPQ) at a concentration of 15 mg/kg body weight, used as PARP inhibitor. Subgroups of mice were established (A: IR 45 min/6 h; B: IR + 48 h in UW solution; and C: IR + 48 h in UW solution plus DPQ). We processed samples for morphological, immunohistochemical, ultrastructural, and western-blotting studies. Results. Prolonged cold ischemia time in UW solution increased PARP-1 expression and kidney injury. Preconditioning with PARP inhibitor DPQ plus DPQ supplementation in UW solution decreased PARP-1 nuclear expression in renal tubules and renal damage. Parp1(0/0) knockout mice were more resistant to IR-induced renal lesion. In conclusion, PARP inhibition attenuates ATN and other IR-related renal lesions in mouse kidneys under prolonged cold storage in UW solution. If confirmed, these data suggest that pharmacological manipulation of PARP activity may have salutary effects in cold-stored organs at transplantation.
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In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.
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One of the criticisms leveled at the model of dispersed city found all over the world is its unarticulated, random, and undifferentiated nature. To check this idea in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region, we estimated the impact of the urban spatial structure (CBD, subcenters and transportation infrastructures) over the population density and commuting distance. The results are unfavorable to the hypothesis of the increasing destructuring of cities given that the explanatory capacity of both functions improves over time, both when other control variables are not included and when they are included.
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In order to identify new compounds to treat Chagas disease during the acute phase with higher activity and lower toxicity than the reference drug benznidazole (Bz), two hydroxyphthalazine derivative compounds were prepared and their trypanocidal effects against Trypanosoma cruzi were evaluated by light microscopy through the determination of IC50 values. Cytotoxicity was determined by flow cytometry assays against Vero cells. In vivo assays were performed in BALB/c mice, in which the parasitemia levels were quantified by fresh blood examination; the assignment of a cure was determined by reactivation of blood parasitemia levels after immunosuppression. The mechanism of action was elucidated at metabolic and ultra-structural levels, by (1)H NMR and TEM studies. Finally, as these compounds are potentially capable of causing oxidative damage in the parasites, the study was completed, by assessing their activity as potential iron superoxide dismutase (Fe-SOD) inhibitors. High-selectivity indices observed in vitro were the basis of promoting one of the tested compounds to in vivo assays. The tests on the murine model for the acute phase of Chagas disease showed better parasitemia inhibition values than those found for Bz. Compound 2 induced a remarkable decrease in the reactivation of parasitemia after immunosuppression. Compound 2 turned out to be a great inhibitor of Fe-SOD. The high antiparasitic activity and low toxicity together with the modest costs for the starting materials render this compound an appropriate molecule for the development of an affordable anti-Chagas agent.
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased in societies of all socio-cultural backgrounds. To date, guidelines set forward to prevent obesity have universally emphasized optimal levels of physical activity. However there are few empirical data to support the assertion that low levels of energy expenditure in activity is a causal factor in the current obesity epidemic are very limited. METHODS: The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a cohort study designed to assess the association between physical activity levels and relative weight, weight gain and diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five population-based samples at different stages of economic development. Twenty-five hundred young adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study; 500 from sites in Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the United States. At baseline, physical activity levels were assessed using accelerometry and a questionnaire in all participants and by doubly labeled water in a subsample of 75 per site. We assessed dietary intake using two separate 24-h recalls, body composition using bioelectrical impedance analysis, and health history, social and economic indicators by questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured and blood samples collected for measurement of lipids, glucose, insulin and adipokines. Full examination including physical activity using accelerometry, anthropometric data and fasting glucose will take place at 12 and 24 months. The distribution of the main variables and the associations between physical activity, independent of energy intake, glucose metabolism and anthropometric measures will be assessed using cross-section and longitudinal analysis within and between sites. DISCUSSION: METS will provide insight on the relative contribution of physical activity and diet to excess weight, age-related weight gain and incident glucose impairment in five populations' samples of young adults at different stages of economic development. These data should be useful for the development of empirically-based public health policy aimed at the prevention of obesity and associated chronic diseases.
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Teicoplanin is frequently administered to treat Gram-positive infections in pediatric patients. However, not enough is known about the pharmacokinetics (PK) of teicoplanin in children to justify the optimal dosing regimen. The aim of this study was to determine the population PK of teicoplanin in children and evaluate the current dosage regimens. A PK hospital-based study was conducted. Current dosage recommendations were used for children up to 16 years of age. Thirty-nine children were recruited. Serum samples were collected at the first dose interval (1, 3, 6, and 24 h) and at steady state. A standard 2-compartment PK model was developed, followed by structural models that incorporated weight. Weight was allowed to affect clearance (CL) using linear and allometric scaling terms. The linear model best accounted for the observed data and was subsequently chosen for Monte Carlo simulations. The PK parameter medians/means (standard deviation [SD]) were as follows: CL, [0.019/0.023 (0.01)] × weight liters/h/kg of body weight; volume, 2.282/4.138 liters (4.14 liters); first-order rate constant from the central to peripheral compartment (Kcp), 0.474/3.876 h(-1) (8.16 h(-1)); and first-order rate constant from peripheral to central compartment (Kpc), 0.292/3.994 h(-1) (8.93 h(-1)). The percentage of patients with a minimum concentration of drug in serum (Cmin) of <10 mg/liter was 53.85%. The median/mean (SD) total population area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) was 619/527.05 mg · h/liter (166.03 mg · h/liter). Based on Monte Carlo simulations, only 30.04% (median AUC, 507.04 mg · h/liter), 44.88% (494.1 mg · h/liter), and 60.54% (452.03 mg · h/liter) of patients weighing 50, 25, and 10 kg, respectively, attained trough concentrations of >10 mg/liter by day 4 of treatment. The teicoplanin population PK is highly variable in children, with a wider AUC distribution spread than for adults. Therapeutic drug monitoring should be a routine requirement to minimize suboptimal concentrations. (This trial has been registered in the European Clinical Trials Database Registry [EudraCT] under registration number 2012-005738-12.).
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La tomodensitométrie (CT) est une technique d'imagerie dont l'intérêt n'a cessé de croître depuis son apparition dans le début des années 70. Dans le domaine médical, son utilisation est incontournable à tel point que ce système d'imagerie pourrait être amené à devenir victime de son succès si son impact au niveau de l'exposition de la population ne fait pas l'objet d'une attention particulière. Bien évidemment, l'augmentation du nombre d'examens CT a permis d'améliorer la prise en charge des patients ou a rendu certaines procédures moins invasives. Toutefois, pour assurer que le compromis risque - bénéfice soit toujours en faveur du patient, il est nécessaire d'éviter de délivrer des doses non utiles au diagnostic.¦Si cette action est importante chez l'adulte elle doit être une priorité lorsque les examens se font chez l'enfant, en particulier lorsque l'on suit des pathologies qui nécessitent plusieurs examens CT au cours de la vie du patient. En effet, les enfants et jeunes adultes sont plus radiosensibles. De plus, leur espérance de vie étant supérieure à celle de l'adulte, ils présentent un risque accru de développer un cancer radio-induit dont la phase de latence peut être supérieure à vingt ans. Partant du principe que chaque examen radiologique est justifié, il devient dès lors nécessaire d'optimiser les protocoles d'acquisitions pour s'assurer que le patient ne soit pas irradié inutilement. L'avancée technologique au niveau du CT est très rapide et depuis 2009, de nouvelles techniques de reconstructions d'images, dites itératives, ont été introduites afin de réduire la dose et améliorer la qualité d'image.¦Le présent travail a pour objectif de déterminer le potentiel des reconstructions itératives statistiques pour réduire au minimum les doses délivrées lors d'examens CT chez l'enfant et le jeune adulte tout en conservant une qualité d'image permettant le diagnostic, ceci afin de proposer des protocoles optimisés.¦L'optimisation d'un protocole d'examen CT nécessite de pouvoir évaluer la dose délivrée et la qualité d'image utile au diagnostic. Alors que la dose est estimée au moyen d'indices CT (CTDIV0| et DLP), ce travail a la particularité d'utiliser deux approches radicalement différentes pour évaluer la qualité d'image. La première approche dite « physique », se base sur le calcul de métriques physiques (SD, MTF, NPS, etc.) mesurées dans des conditions bien définies, le plus souvent sur fantômes. Bien que cette démarche soit limitée car elle n'intègre pas la perception des radiologues, elle permet de caractériser de manière rapide et simple certaines propriétés d'une image. La seconde approche, dite « clinique », est basée sur l'évaluation de structures anatomiques (critères diagnostiques) présentes sur les images de patients. Des radiologues, impliqués dans l'étape d'évaluation, doivent qualifier la qualité des structures d'un point de vue diagnostique en utilisant une échelle de notation simple. Cette approche, lourde à mettre en place, a l'avantage d'être proche du travail du radiologue et peut être considérée comme méthode de référence.¦Parmi les principaux résultats de ce travail, il a été montré que les algorithmes itératifs statistiques étudiés en clinique (ASIR?, VEO?) ont un important potentiel pour réduire la dose au CT (jusqu'à-90%). Cependant, par leur fonctionnement, ils modifient l'apparence de l'image en entraînant un changement de texture qui pourrait affecter la qualité du diagnostic. En comparant les résultats fournis par les approches « clinique » et « physique », il a été montré que ce changement de texture se traduit par une modification du spectre fréquentiel du bruit dont l'analyse permet d'anticiper ou d'éviter une perte diagnostique. Ce travail montre également que l'intégration de ces nouvelles techniques de reconstruction en clinique ne peut se faire de manière simple sur la base de protocoles utilisant des reconstructions classiques. Les conclusions de ce travail ainsi que les outils développés pourront également guider de futures études dans le domaine de la qualité d'image, comme par exemple, l'analyse de textures ou la modélisation d'observateurs pour le CT.¦-¦Computed tomography (CT) is an imaging technique in which interest has been growing since it first began to be used in the early 1970s. In the clinical environment, this imaging system has emerged as the gold standard modality because of its high sensitivity in producing accurate diagnostic images. However, even if a direct benefit to patient healthcare is attributed to CT, the dramatic increase of the number of CT examinations performed has raised concerns about the potential negative effects of ionizing radiation on the population. To insure a benefit - risk that works in favor of a patient, it is important to balance image quality and dose in order to avoid unnecessary patient exposure.¦If this balance is important for adults, it should be an absolute priority for children undergoing CT examinations, especially for patients suffering from diseases requiring several follow-up examinations over the patient's lifetime. Indeed, children and young adults are more sensitive to ionizing radiation and have an extended life span in comparison to adults. For this population, the risk of developing cancer, whose latency period exceeds 20 years, is significantly higher than for adults. Assuming that each patient examination is justified, it then becomes a priority to optimize CT acquisition protocols in order to minimize the delivered dose to the patient. Over the past few years, CT advances have been developing at a rapid pace. Since 2009, new iterative image reconstruction techniques, called statistical iterative reconstructions, have been introduced in order to decrease patient exposure and improve image quality.¦The goal of the present work was to determine the potential of statistical iterative reconstructions to reduce dose as much as possible without compromising image quality and maintain diagnosis of children and young adult examinations.¦The optimization step requires the evaluation of the delivered dose and image quality useful to perform diagnosis. While the dose is estimated using CT indices (CTDIV0| and DLP), the particularity of this research was to use two radically different approaches to evaluate image quality. The first approach, called the "physical approach", computed physical metrics (SD, MTF, NPS, etc.) measured on phantoms in well-known conditions. Although this technique has some limitations because it does not take radiologist perspective into account, it enables the physical characterization of image properties in a simple and timely way. The second approach, called the "clinical approach", was based on the evaluation of anatomical structures (diagnostic criteria) present on patient images. Radiologists, involved in the assessment step, were asked to score image quality of structures for diagnostic purposes using a simple rating scale. This approach is relatively complicated to implement and also time-consuming. Nevertheless, it has the advantage of being very close to the practice of radiologists and is considered as a reference method.¦Primarily, this work revealed that the statistical iterative reconstructions studied in clinic (ASIR? and VECO have a strong potential to reduce CT dose (up to -90%). However, by their mechanisms, they lead to a modification of the image appearance with a change in image texture which may then effect the quality of the diagnosis. By comparing the results of the "clinical" and "physical" approach, it was showed that a change in texture is related to a modification of the noise spectrum bandwidth. The NPS analysis makes possible to anticipate or avoid a decrease in image quality. This project demonstrated that integrating these new statistical iterative reconstruction techniques can be complex and cannot be made on the basis of protocols using conventional reconstructions. The conclusions of this work and the image quality tools developed will be able to guide future studies in the field of image quality as texture analysis or model observers dedicated to CT.