Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole

Synopsis and critique of the unofficial American/Australian co-production film of animation and fantasy genres.

Mary and Max

Synopsis and critique of Australian film in animation, comedy, and drama genres.

The Sapphires

Synopsis and critique of Indigenous musical comedy, The Saphhires, directed by Wayne Blair.

Bait

A synopsis and critique of the Australian/Singaporean film, Bait, directed by Kimble Rendall in the horror genre.

Razorback

Synopsis and critique of Australian Film, Razorback, directed by Russell Mulcahy in the horror genre.

Dark city

A synopsis and critique of an Australian/American film, Dark City, directed by Alex Proyas in the science fiction genre.

Daybreakers

It is 2019, ten years after a plague turns most humans into vampires. Human blood is in short supply. The shortage of causing panic in vampire population Charles Bromley, CEO of pharmaceutic company Bromley Marks - the largest supplier of human blood in the United States- is intent on developing a viable blood substitute. When a cure that can transform vampires back into human...

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Architectural changes of the biceps femoris after concentric or eccentric training

Purpose To determine i) the architectural adaptations of the biceps femoris long head (BFlf) following concentric or eccentric strength training interventions; ii) the time course of adaptation during training and detraining. Methods Participants in this randomized controlled trial (control [n=28], concentric training group [n=14], eccentric training group [n=14], males) completed a 4-week control period, followed by 6 weeks of either concentric- or eccentric-only knee flexor training on an isokinetic dynamometer and finished with 28 days of detraining. Architectural characteristics of BFlf were assessed at rest and during graded isometric contractions utilizing two-dimensional ultrasonography at 28 days pre-baseline, baseline, days 14, 21 and 42 of the intervention and then again following 28 days of detraining. Results BFlf fascicle length was significantly longer in the eccentric training group (p<0.05, d range: 2.65 to 2.98) and shorter in the concentric training group (p<0.05, d range: -1.62 to -0.96) after 42 days of training compared to baseline at all isometric contraction intensities. Following the 28-day detraining period, BFlf fascicle length was significantly reduced in the eccentric training group at all contraction intensities compared to the end of the intervention (p<0.05, d range: -1.73 to -1.55). There was no significant change in fascicle length of the concentric training group following the detraining period. Conclusions These results provide evidence that short term resistance training can lead to architectural alterations in the BFlf. In addition, the eccentric training-induced lengthening of BFlf fascicle length was reversed and returned to baseline values following 28 days of detraining. The contraction mode specific adaptations in this study may have implications for injury prevention and rehabilitation.

Biceps femoris architecture and strength in athletes with a prior ACL reconstruction

Purpose To determine if limbs with a history of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury reconstructed from the semitendinosus (ST) display different biceps femoris long head (BFlh) architecture and eccentric strength, assessed during the Nordic hamstring exercise, compared to the contralateral uninjured limb. Methods The architectural characteristics of the BFlh were assessed at rest and at 25% of a maximal voluntary isometric contraction (MVIC) in the control (n=52) and previous ACL injury group (n=15) using two-dimensional ultrasonography. Eccentric knee-flexor strength was assessed during the Nordic hamstring exercise. Results Fascicle length was shorter (p=0.001; d range: 0.90 to 1.31) and pennation angle (p range: 0.001 to 0.006: d range: 0.87 to 0.93) was greater in the BFlh of the ACL injured limb when compared to the contralateral uninjured limb at rest and during 25% of MVIC. Eccentric strength was significantly lower in the ACL injured limb than the contralateral uninjured limb (-13.7%; -42.9N; 95% CI = -78.7 to -7.2; p=0.021; d=0.51). Fascicle length, MVIC and eccentric strength were not different between the left and right limb in the control group. Conclusions Limbs with a history of ACL injury reconstructed from the ST have shorter fascicles and greater pennation angles in the BFlh compared to the contralateral uninjured side. Eccentric strength during the Nordic hamstring exercise of the ACL injured limb is significantly lower than the contralateral side. These findings have implications for ACL rehabilitation and hamstring injury prevention practices which should consider altered architectural characteristics.

Identification of a novel fusion transcript between human relaxin-1 (RLN1) and human relaxin-2 (RLN2) in prostate cancer

Simultaneous expression of highly homologous RLN1 and RLN2 genes in prostate impairs their accurate delineation. We used PacBio SMRT sequencing and RNA-Seq in LNCaP cells in order to dissect the expression of RLN1 and RLN2 variants. We identified a novel fusion transcript comprising the RLN1 and RLN2 genes and found evidence of its expression in the normal and prostate cancer tissues. The RLN1-RLN2 fusion putatively encodes RLN2 isoform with the deleted secretory signal peptide. The identification of the fusion transcript provided information to determine unique RLN1-RLN2 fusion and RLN1 regions. The RLN1-RLN2 fusion was co-expressed with RLN1 in LNCaP cells, but the two gene products were inversely regulated by androgens. We showed that RLN1 is underrepresented in common PCa cell lines in comparison to normal and PCa tissue. The current study brings a highly relevant update to the relaxin field, and will encourage further studies of RLN1 and RLN2 in PCa and broader.

Target acquired: Progress and promise of targeted therapeutics in the treatment of prostate cancer

Cancer is fundamentally a genomic disease caused by mutations or rearrangements in the DNA or epigenetic machinery of a patient. An emerging field in cancer treatment targets key aberrations arising from the mutational landscape of an individual patient’s disease rather than employing a cancer-wide cytotoxic therapy approach. In prostate cancer in particular, where there is an observed variation in response to standard treatments between patients with disease of a similar pathological stage and grade, mutationdirected treatment may grow to be a viable tool for clinicians to tailor more effective treatments. This review will describe a number of mutations across multiple forms of cancer that have been successfully antagonised by targeted therapeutics including their identification, the development of targeted compounds to combat them and the development of resistance to these therapies. This review will continue to examine these same mutations in the treatment and management of prostate cancer; the prevalence of targetable mutations in prostate cancer, recent clinical trials of targeted-agents and the potential or limitations for their use.

Massive black-hole binary inspirals: results from the LISA parameter estimation taskforce

The LISA Parameter Estimation Taskforce was formed in September 2007 to provide the LISA Project with vetted codes, source distribution models and results related to parameter estimation. The Taskforce's goal is to be able to quickly calculate the impact of any mission design changes on LISA's science capabilities, based on reasonable estimates of the distribution of astrophysical sources in the universe. This paper describes our Taskforce's work on massive black-hole binaries (MBHBs). Given present uncertainties in the formation history of MBHBs, we adopt four different population models, based on (i) whether the initial black-hole seeds are small or large and (ii) whether accretion is efficient or inefficient at spinning up the holes. We compare four largely independent codes for calculating LISA's parameter-estimation capabilities. All codes are based on the Fisher-matrix approximation, but in the past they used somewhat different signal models, source parametrizations and noise curves. We show that once these differences are removed, the four codes give results in extremely close agreement with each other. Using a code that includes both spin precession and higher harmonics in the gravitational-wave signal, we carry out Monte Carlo simulations and determine the number of events that can be detected and accurately localized in our four population models.