974 resultados para Parametric studies


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Charcot-Marie-Tooth neuropathy type 1 (CMT1) is an autosomal dominant disorder originally localized to chromosome 1 by linkage to the Duffy blood group. Studies have since shown that the disorder may be heterogeneous, as not all families show this linkage. We tested genetic heterogeneity by the HOMOG computer program in 15 CMT1 pedigrees informative for Duffy. We detected no evidence for heterogeneity in this sample, but when we combined results with previously published lod scores, heterogeneity was statistically significant. Twelve of the 15 families studied did not show linkage to Duffy. We found six of these families to be informative for a chromosome 19 marker, apolipoprotein CII(ApoC2). Despite a previous report showing probable linkage of a non-Duffy-linked CMT1 pedigree to two chromosome 19 markers, we did not detect significant linkage of ApoC2 to CMT1 in these families.

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Nine probes were isolated from a human chromosome 1 enriched library and mapped to regions of chromosome 1 using somatic cell hybrid lines. One clone, LR67, which mapped 1q12→q23 detected a BglI RFLP. This probe, as well as 4 other known chromosome 1 markers, α-spectrin, Factor XIIIB, DR10 and DR78, were used for linkage studies in 15 Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease (CMT1) families. Close linking of CMT1 to any of the 5 markers was not indicated. Total lod scores excluded linkage of CMT1 to LR67 and to DR10 at 5 cM or less, to DR78 and 10 cM or less, α-spectrin at 15 cM or less and Factor XIIIB at 20 cM or less. Possible linkage, however, was shown between LR67 and CMT1 at a distance of 30 cM. Also linkage at a distance of 5 cM was detected between this probe and α-spectrin.

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1. Essential hypertension occurs in people with an underlying genetic predisposition who subject themselves to adverse environmental influences. The number of genes involved is unknown, as is the extent to which each contributes to final blood pressure and the severity of the disease. 2. In the past, studies of potential candidate genes have been performed by association (case-control) analysis of unrelated individuals or linkage (pedigree or sibpair) analysis of families. These studies have resulted in several positive findings but, as one may expect, also an enormous number of negative results. 3. In order to uncover the major genetic loci for essential hypertension, it is proposed that scanning the genome systematically in 100- 200 affected sibships should prove successful. 4. This involves genotyping sets of hypertensive sibships to determine their complement of several hundred microsatellite polymorphisms. Those that are highly informative, by having a high heterozygosity, are most suitable. Also, the markers need to be spaced sufficiently evenly across the genome so as to ensure adequate coverage. 5. Tests are performed to determine increased segregation of alleles of each marker with hypertension. The analytical tools involve specialized statistical programs that can detect such differences. Non- parametric multipoint analysis is an appropriate approach. 6. In this way, loci for essential hypertension are beginning to emerge.

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Interest in chromosome 18 in essential hypertension comes from comparative mapping of rat blood pressure quantitative trait loci (QTL), familial orthostatic hypotensive syndrome studies, and essential hypertension pedigree linkage analyses indicating that a locus or loci on human chromosome 18 may play a role in hypertension development. To further investigate involvement of chromosome 18 in human essential hypertension, the present study utilized a linkage scan approach to genotype twelve microsatellite markers spanning human chromosome 18 in 177 Australian Caucasian hypertensive (HT) sibling pairs. Linkage analysis showed significant excess allele sharing of the D18S61 marker when analyzed with SPLINK (P=0.00012), ANALYZE (Sibpair) (P=0.0081), and also with MAPMAKER SIBS (P=0.0001). Similarly, the D18S59 marker also showed evidence for excess allele sharing when analyzed with SPLINK (P=0.016), ANALYZE (Sibpair) (P=0.0095), and with MAPMAKER SIBS (P = 0.014). The adenylate cyclase activating polypeptide 1 gene (ADCYAP1) is involved in vasodilation and has been co-localized to the D18S59 marker. Results testing a microsatellite marker in the 3′ untranslated region of ADCYAP1 in age and gender matched HT and normotensive (NT) individuals showed possible association with hypertension (P = 0.038; Monte Carlo P = 0.02), but not with obesity. The present study shows a chromosome 18 role in essential hypertension and indicates that the genomic region near the ADCYAP1 gene or perhaps the gene itself may be implicated. Further investigation is required to conclusively determine the extent to which ADCYAP1 polymorphisms are involved in essential hypertension. © 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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This paper presents a new simplified parametric analysis technique for the design of fuel cell and hybrid-electric vehicles. The technique utilizes a comprehensive set of ∼30 parameters to fully characterize the vehicle platform, powertrain components, vehicle performance requirements and driving conditions. It is best applied to the sizing of powertrain components and prediction of energy consumption in a vehicle. This new parametric technique makes a good complement to existing vehicle simulation software packages and therefore represents a potentially valuable tool for the hybrid vehicle designer.

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Improving safety at rail level crossings is an important part of both road and rail safety strategies. While low in number, crashes between vehicles and trains at level crossings are catastrophic events typically involving multiple fatalities and serious injuries. Advances in driving assessment methods, such as the provision of on-road instrumented test vehicles with eye and head tracking, provide researchers with the opportunity to further understand driver behaviour at such crossings in ways not previously possible. This paper describes a study conducted to further understand the factors that shape driver behaviour at rail level crossings using instrumented vehicles. Twenty-two participants drove an On-Road Test Vehicle (ORTeV) on a predefined route in regional Victoria with a mix of both active (flashing lights with/without boom barriers) and passively controlled (stop, give way) crossings. Data collected included driving performance data, head checks, and interview data to capture driver strategies. The data from an integrated suite of methods demonstrated clearly how behaviour differs at active and passive level crossings, particularly for inexperienced drivers. For example, the head check data clearly show the reliance and expectancies of inexperienced drivers for active warnings even when approaching passively controlled crossings. These studies provide very novel and unique insights into how level crossing design and warnings shape driver behaviour.

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This research paper examines the potential of neighbourhood centres to generate and enhance social capital through their programs, activities, membership associations and community engagement. Social capital is a complex concept involving elements of norms, networks, and trust and is generally seen as enhancing community cohesion and the ability to attain common goals (outlined in more detail in Section 3). The aim of this research project is to describe the nature of social capital formation in terms of development and change in norms, networks and trust within the context of the operations of neighbourhood centres in three Queensland locations (i.e., Sherwood, Kingston/Slacks Creek, and Maleny). The study was prompted by surprisingly little research into how neighbourhood centres and their clients contribute to the development of social capital. Considering the large volume of research on the role of community organisations in building social capital, it is remarkable that perhaps the most obvious organisation with 'social capitalist' intentions has received so little attention (apart from Bullen and Onyx, 2005). Indeed, ostensibly, neighbourhood centres are all about social capital.

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There is a growing awareness worldwide of the significance of social media to communication in times of both natural and human-created disasters and crises. While the media have long been used as a means of broadcasting messages to communities in times of crisis – bushfires, floods, earthquakes etc. – the significance of social media in enabling many-to-many communication through ubiquitous networked computing and mobile media devices is becoming increasingly important in the fields of disaster and emergency management. This paper undertakes an analysis of the uses made of social media during two recent natural disasters: the January 2011 floods in Brisbane and South-East Queensland in Australia, and the February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand. It is part of a wider project being undertaken by a research team based at the Queensland University of Technology in Brisbane, Australia, that is working with the Queensland Department of Community Safety (DCS) and the EIDOS Institute, and funded by the Australian Research Council (ARC) through its Linkages program. The project combines large-scale, quantitative social media tracking and analysis techniques with qualitative cultural analysis of communication efforts by citizens and officials, to enable both emergency management authorities and news media organisations to develop, implement, and evaluate new social media strategies for emergency communication.

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As of June 2009, 361 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) had been referenced by the HuGE database. GWAS require DNA from many thousands of individuals, relying on suitable DNA collections. We recently performed a multiple sclerosis (MS) GWAS where a substantial component of the cases (24%) had DNA derived from saliva. Genotyping was done on the Illumina genotyping platform using the Infinium Hap370CNV DUO microarray. Additionally, we genotyped 10 individuals in duplicate using both saliva- and blood-derived DNA. The performance of blood- versus saliva-derived DNA was compared using genotyping call rate, which reflects both the quantity and quality of genotyping per sample and the “GCScore,” an Illumina genotyping quality score, which is a measure of DNA quality. We also compared genotype calls and GCScores for the 10 sample pairs. Call rates were assessed for each sample individually. For the GWAS samples, we compared data according to source of DNA and center of origin. We observed high concordance in genotyping quality and quantity between the paired samples and minimal loss of quality and quantity of DNA in the saliva samples in the large GWAS sample, with the blood samples showing greater variation between centers of origin. This large data set highlights the usefulness of saliva DNA for genotyping, especially in high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism microarray studies such as GWAS.

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Indirect inference (II) is a methodology for estimating the parameters of an intractable (generative) model on the basis of an alternative parametric (auxiliary) model that is both analytically and computationally easier to deal with. Such an approach has been well explored in the classical literature but has received substantially less attention in the Bayesian paradigm. The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast a collection of what we call parametric Bayesian indirect inference (pBII) methods. One class of pBII methods uses approximate Bayesian computation (referred to here as ABC II) where the summary statistic is formed on the basis of the auxiliary model, using ideas from II. Another approach proposed in the literature, referred to here as parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood (pBIL), we show to be a fundamentally different approach to ABC II. We devise new theoretical results for pBIL to give extra insights into its behaviour and also its differences with ABC II. Furthermore, we examine in more detail the assumptions required to use each pBII method. The results, insights and comparisons developed in this paper are illustrated on simple examples and two other substantive applications. The first of the substantive examples involves performing inference for complex quantile distributions based on simulated data while the second is for estimating the parameters of a trivariate stochastic process describing the evolution of macroparasites within a host based on real data. We create a novel framework called Bayesian indirect likelihood (BIL) which encompasses pBII as well as general ABC methods so that the connections between the methods can be established.

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The early warning based on real-time prediction of rain-induced instability of natural residual slopes helps to minimise human casualties due to such slope failures. Slope instability prediction is complicated, as it is influenced by many factors, including soil properties, soil behaviour, slope geometry, and the location and size of deep cracks in the slope. These deep cracks can facilitate rainwater infiltration into the deep soil layers and reduce the unsaturated shear strength of residual soil. Subsequently, it can form a slip surface, triggering a landslide even in partially saturated soil slopes. Although past research has shown the effects of surface-cracks on soil stability, research examining the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is very limited. This study aimed to develop methodologies for predicting the real-time rain-induced instability of natural residual soil slopes with deep cracks. The results can be used to warn against potential rain-induced slope failures. The literature review conducted on rain induced slope instability of unsaturated residual soil associated with soil crack, reveals that only limited studies have been done in the following areas related to this topic: - Methods for detecting deep cracks in residual soil slopes. - Practical application of unsaturated soil theory in slope stability analysis. - Mechanistic methods for real-time prediction of rain induced residual soil slope instability in critical slopes with deep cracks. Two natural residual soil slopes at Jombok Village, Ngantang City, Indonesia, which are located near a residential area, were investigated to obtain the parameters required for the stability analysis of the slope. A survey first identified all related field geometrical information including slope, roads, rivers, buildings, and boundaries of the slope. Second, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method was used on the slope to identify the location and geometrical characteristics of deep cracks. The two ERT array models employed in this research are: Dipole-dipole and Azimuthal. Next, bore-hole tests were conducted at different locations in the slope to identify soil layers and to collect undisturbed soil samples for laboratory measurement of the soil parameters required for the stability analysis. At the same bore hole locations, Standard Penetration Test (SPT) was undertaken. Undisturbed soil samples taken from the bore-holes were tested in a laboratory to determine the variation of the following soil properties with the depth: - Classification and physical properties such as grain size distribution, atterberg limits, water content, dry density and specific gravity. - Saturated and unsaturated shear strength properties using direct shear apparatus. - Soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) using filter paper method. - Saturated hydraulic conductivity. The following three methods were used to detect and simulate the location and orientation of cracks in the investigated slope: (1) The electrical resistivity distribution of sub-soil obtained from ERT. (2) The profile of classification and physical properties of the soil, based on laboratory testing of soil samples collected from bore-holes and visual observations of the cracks on the slope surface. (3) The results of stress distribution obtained from 2D dynamic analysis of the slope using QUAKE/W software, together with the laboratory measured soil parameters and earthquake records of the area. It was assumed that the deep crack in the slope under investigation was generated by earthquakes. A good agreement was obtained when comparing the location and the orientation of the cracks detected by Method-1 and Method-2. However, the simulated cracks in Method-3 were not in good agreement with the output of Method-1 and Method-2. This may have been due to the material properties used and the assumptions made, for the analysis. From Method-1 and Method-2, it can be concluded that the ERT method can be used to detect the location and orientation of a crack in a soil slope, when the ERT is conducted in very dry or very wet soil conditions. In this study, the cracks detected by the ERT were used for stability analysis of the slope. The stability of the slope was determined using the factor of safety (FOS) of a critical slip surface obtained by SLOPE/W using the limit equilibrium method. Pore-water pressure values for the stability analysis were obtained by coupling the transient seepage analysis of the slope using finite element based software, called SEEP/W. A parametric study conducted on the stability of an investigated slope revealed that the existence of deep cracks and their location in the soil slope are critical for its stability. The following two steps are proposed to predict the rain-induced instability of a residual soil slope with cracks. (a) Step-1: The transient stability analysis of the slope is conducted from the date of the investigation (initial conditions are based on the investigation) to the preferred date (current date), using measured rainfall data. Then, the stability analyses are continued for the next 12 months using the predicted annual rainfall that will be based on the previous five years rainfall data for the area. (b) Step-2: The stability of the slope is calculated in real-time using real-time measured rainfall. In this calculation, rainfall is predicted for the next hour or 24 hours and the stability of the slope is calculated one hour or 24 hours in advance using real time rainfall data. If Step-1 analysis shows critical stability for the forthcoming year, it is recommended that Step-2 be used for more accurate warning against the future failure of the slope. In this research, the results of the application of the Step-1 on an investigated slope (Slope-1) showed that its stability was not approaching a critical value for year 2012 (until 31st December 2012) and therefore, the application of Step-2 was not necessary for the year 2012. A case study (Slope-2) was used to verify the applicability of the complete proposed predictive method. A landslide event at Slope-2 occurred on 31st October 2010. The transient seepage and stability analyses of the slope using data obtained from field tests such as Bore-hole, SPT, ERT and Laboratory tests, were conducted on 12th June 2010 following the Step-1 and found that the slope in critical condition on that current date. It was then showing that the application of the Step-2 could have predicted this failure by giving sufficient warning time.

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We conducted on-road and simulator studies to explore the mechanisms underpinning driver-rider crashes. In Study 1 the verbal protocols of 40 drivers and riders were assessed at intersections as part of a 15km on-road route in Melbourne. Network analysis of the verbal transcripts highlighted key differences in the situation awareness of drivers and riders at intersections. In a further study using a driving simulator we examined in car drivers the influence of acute exposure to motorcyclists. In a 15 min simulated drive, 40 drivers saw either no motorcycles or a high number of motorcycles in the surrounding traffic. In a subsequent 45-60 min drive, drivers were asked to detect motorcycles in traffic. The proportion of motorcycles was manipulated so that there was either a high (120) or low (6) number of motorcycles during the drive. Those drivers exposed to a high number of motorcycles were significantly faster at detecting motorcycles. Fundamentally, the incompatible situation awareness at intersections by drivers and riders underpins the conflicts. Study 2 offers some suggestion for a countermeasure here, although more research around schema and exposure training to support safer interactions is needed.

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The use of mobile phones while driving is more prevalent among young drivers—a less experienced cohort with elevated crash risk. The objective of this study was to examine and better understand the reaction times of young drivers to a traffic event originating in their peripheral vision whilst engaged in a mobile phone conversation. The CARRS-Q Advanced Driving Simulator was used to test a sample of young drivers on various simulated driving tasks, including an event that originated within the driver’s peripheral vision, whereby a pedestrian enters a zebra crossing from a sidewalk. Thirty-two licensed drivers drove the simulator in three phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation), hands-free and handheld. In addition to driving the simulator each participant completed questionnaires related to driver demographics, driving history, usage of mobile phones while driving, and general mobile phone usage history. The participants were 21 to 26 years old and split evenly by gender. Drivers’ reaction times to a pedestrian in the zebra crossing were modelled using a parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) duration model with a Weibull distribution. Also tested where two different model specifications to account for the structured heterogeneity arising from the repeated measures experimental design. The Weibull AFT model with gamma heterogeneity was found to be the best fitting model and identified four significant variables influencing the reaction times, including phone condition, driver’s age, license type (Provisional license holder or not), and self-reported frequency of usage of handheld phones while driving. The reaction times of drivers were more than 40% longer in the distracted condition compared to baseline (not distracted). Moreover, the impairment of reaction times due to mobile phone conversations was almost double for provisional compared to open license holders. A reduction in the ability to detect traffic events in the periphery whilst distracted presents a significant and measurable safety concern that will undoubtedly persist unless mitigated.

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The candidate gene approach has been a pioneer in the field of genetic epidemiology, identifying risk alleles and their association with clinical traits. With the advent of rapidly changing technology, there has been an explosion of in silico tools available to researchers, giving them fast, efficient resources and reliable strategies important to find casual gene variants for candidate or genome wide association studies (GWAS). In this review, following a description of candidate gene prioritisation, we summarise the approaches to single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) prioritisation and discuss the tools available to assess functional relevance of the risk variant with consideration to its genomic location. The strategy and the tools discussed are applicable to any study investigating genetic risk factors associated with a particular disease. Some of the tools are also applicable for the functional validation of variants relevant to the era of GWAS and next generation sequencing (NGS).