852 resultados para Parametric VaR (Value-at-Risk)
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We investigated the distribution of commensal staphylococcal species and determined the prevalence of multi-drug resistance in healthy cats and dogs. Risk factors associated with the carriage of multi-drug resistant strains were explored. Isolates from 256 dogs and 277 cats were identified at the species level using matrix-assisted laser desorption ionisation-time of flight mass spectrometry. The diversity of coagulase-negative Staphylococci (CNS) was high, with 22 species in dogs and 24 in cats. Multi-drug resistance was frequent (17%) and not always associated with the presence of the mecA gene. A stay in a veterinary clinic in the last year was associated with an increased risk of colonisation by multi-drug resistant Staphylococci (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.1˜5.2, p value LRT = 0.04). When identifying efficient control strategies against antibiotic resistance, the presence of mechanisms other than methicillin resistance and the possible role of CNS in the spread of resistance determinants should be considered.
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BACKGROUND -The value of standard two-dimensional transthoracic echocardiographic (TTE) parameters for risk stratification in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia (ARVC/D) is controversial. METHODS AND RESULTS -We investigated the impact of right ventricular fractional area change (FAC) and tricuspid annulus plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) for prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as the occurrence of cardiac death, heart transplantation, survived sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, sustained ventricular tachycardia or arrhythmogenic syncope. Among 70 patients who fulfilled the 2010 ARVC/D Task Force Criteria and underwent baseline TTE, 37 (53%) patients experienced a MACE during a median follow-up period of 5.3 (IQR 1.8-9.8) years. Average values for FAC, TAPSE, and TAPSE indexed to body surface area (BSA) decreased over time (p=0.03 for FAC, p=0.03 for TAPSE and p=0.01 for TAPSE/BSA, each vs. baseline). In contrast, median right ventricular end-diastolic area (RVEDA) increased (p=0.001 vs. baseline). Based on the results of Kaplan-Meier estimates, the time between baseline TTE and experiencing MACE was significantly shorter for patients with FAC <23% (p<0.001), TAPSE <17mm (p=0.02) or right atrial (RA) short axis/BSA ≥25mm/m(2) (p=0.04) at baseline. A reduced FAC constituted the strongest predictor of MACE (hazard ratio 1.08 per 1% decrease; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.12; p<0.001) on bivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS -This long-term observational study indicates that TAPSE and dilation of right-sided cardiac chambers are associated with an increased risk for MACE in ARVC/D patients with advanced disease and a high risk for adverse events. However, FAC is the strongest echocardiographic predictor of adverse outcome in these patients. Our data advocate a role for TTE in risk stratification in patients with ARVC/D, although our results may not be generalizable to lower risk ARVC/D cohorts.
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OBJECTIVE To examine the degree to which use of β blockers, statins, and diuretics in patients with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors is associated with new onset diabetes. DESIGN Reanalysis of data from the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) trial. SETTING NAVIGATOR trial. PARTICIPANTS Patients who at baseline (enrolment) were treatment naïve to β blockers (n=5640), diuretics (n=6346), statins (n=6146), and calcium channel blockers (n=6294). Use of calcium channel blocker was used as a metabolically neutral control. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Development of new onset diabetes diagnosed by standard plasma glucose level in all participants and confirmed with glucose tolerance testing within 12 weeks after the increased glucose value was recorded. The relation between each treatment and new onset diabetes was evaluated using marginal structural models for causal inference, to account for time dependent confounding in treatment assignment. RESULTS During the median five years of follow-up, β blockers were started in 915 (16.2%) patients, diuretics in 1316 (20.7%), statins in 1353 (22.0%), and calcium channel blockers in 1171 (18.6%). After adjusting for baseline characteristics and time varying confounders, diuretics and statins were both associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes (hazard ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.44, and 1.32, 1.14 to 1.48, respectively), whereas β blockers and calcium channel blockers were not associated with new onset diabetes (1.10, 0.92 to 1.31, and 0.95, 0.79 to 1.13, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Among people with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors and with serial glucose measurements, diuretics and statins were associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes, whereas the effect of β blockers was non-significant.
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OBJECTIVE: We sought to evaluate the performance of the human papillomavirus high-risk DNA test in patients 30 years and older. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Screening (n=835) and diagnosis (n=518) groups were defined based on prior Papanicolaou smear results as part of a clinical trial for cervical cancer detection. We compared the Hybrid Capture II (HCII) test result with the worst histologic report. We used cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2/3 or worse as the reference of disease. We calculated sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+ and LR-), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and areas under the ROC curves for the HCII test. We also considered alternative strategies, including Papanicolaou smear, a combination of Papanicolaou smear and the HCII test, a sequence of Papanicolaou smear followed by the HCII test, and a sequence of the HCII test followed by Papanicolaou smear. RESULTS: For the screening group, the sensitivity was 0.69 and the specificity was 0.93; the area under the ROC curve was 0.81. The LR+ and LR- were 10.24 and 0.34, respectively. For the diagnosis group, the sensitivity was 0.88 and the specificity was 0.78; the area under the ROC curve was 0.83. The LR+ and LR- were 4.06 and 0.14, respectively. Sequential testing showed little or no improvement over the combination testing. CONCLUSIONS: The HCII test in the screening group had a greater LR+ for the detection of CIN 2/3 or worse. HCII testing may be an additional screening tool for cervical cancer in women 30 years and older.
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The association of measures of physical activity with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors in children, especially those for atherosclerosis, is unknown. The purpose of this study was to determine the association of physical activity and cardiovascular fitness with blood lipids and lipoproteins in pre-adolescent and adolescent girls.^ The study population was comprised of 131 girls aged 9 to 16 years who participated in the Children's Nutrition Research Center's Adolescent Study. The dependent variables, blood lipids and lipoproteins, were measured by standard techniques. The independent variables were physical activity measured as the difference between total energy expenditure (TEE) and basal metabolic rate (BMR), and cardiovascular fitness, VO$\rm\sb{2max}$(ml/min/kg). TEE was measured by the doubly-labeled water (DLW) method, and BMR by whole-room calorimetry. Cardiovascular fitness, VO$\rm\sb{2max}$(ml/min/kg), was measured on a motorized treadmill. The potential confounding variables were sexual maturation (Tanner breast stage), ethnic group, body fat percent, and dietary variables. A systematic strategy for data analysis was used to isolate the effects of physical activity and cardiovascular fitness on blood lipids, beginning with assessment of confounding and interaction. Next, from regression models predicting each blood lipid and controlling for covariables, hypotheses were evaluated by the direction and value of the coefficients for physical activity and cardiovascular fitness.^ The main result was that cardiovascular fitness appeared to be more strongly associated with blood lipids than physical activity. An interaction between cardiovascular fitness and sexual maturation indicated that the effect of cardiovascular fitness on most blood lipids was dependent on the stage of sexual maturation.^ A difference of 760 kcal/d physical activity (which represents the difference between the 25th and 75th percentile of physical activity) was associated with negligible differences in blood lipids. In contrast, a difference in 10 ml/min/kg of VO$\rm\sb{2max}$ or cardiovascular fitness (which represents the difference between the 25th and 75th percentile in cardiovascular fitness) in the early stages of sexual maturation was associated with an average positive difference of 15 mg/100 ml ApoA-1 and 10 mg/100 ml HDL-C. ^
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The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the relationship between key psychosocial and behavioral components of the Transtheoretical Model and the Theory of Reasoned Action for sexual risk reduction in a population of crack cocaine smokers and sex workers, not in drug treatment. ^ The first study examined the results of an analysis of the association between two principal constructs in the Transtheoretical Model, the processes of change and the stages of change for condom use, in a high risk population. In the analysis of variance for all respondents, the overall F-test revealed that people in different stages have different levels of experiential process use, F(3,317) = 17.79, p = 0.0001 and different levels of behavioral process use, F(3,317) = 28.59, p = .0001. For the experiential processes, there was a significant difference between the precontemplation/contemplation stage, and both the action, and maintenance, stages.^ The second study explored the relationship between the Theory of Reasoned Action “beliefs” and the stages-of-change in the same population. In the analysis of variance for all participants, the results indicate that people in different stages did value the positive beliefs differently, F(3,502) = 15.38, p = .0001 but did not value the negative beliefs differently, F(3,502) = 2.08, p = .10. ^ The third study explored differences in stage-of-change by gender, partner type drug use, and HIV status. Three discriminant functions emerged, with a combined χ2(12) = 139.57, p = <.0001. The loading matrix of correlations between predictors and discriminant functions demonstrate that the strongest predictor for distinguishing between the precontemplation/contemplation stage and the preparation, action, and maintenance stages (first function) is partner type (.962). The loadings on the second discriminant function suggest that once partner type has been accounted for, ever having HIV/AIDS (.935) was the best predictor for distinguishing between the first three stages and the maintenance stage. ^ These studies demonstrate that behavioral change theories can contribute important insight to researchers and program planners attempting to alter HIV risk behavior in high-risk populations. ^
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AIM Personality dimensions are frequently abnormal in psychosis. We examined if these abnormalities form a personality profile that is characteristic for patients symptomatically at risk of psychosis. METHODS Four higher order personality dimensions were assessed in 104 at-risk patients, 67 clinical and 97 healthy controls with the 'Dimensional Assessment of Personality Pathology', and analysed by two-step cluster procedure to detect personality profiles. Logistic regression was used to test for predictors of profile assignment. RESULTS Low and high scorers were distinguished by two profiles. Patients were more likely high scorers. The presence of clinically relevant depression, though equally frequent in clinical groups, best predicted high scorers among patients. CONCLUSIONS Though at-risk patients were significantly more often high scorers, this seemed to be a general reflection of the level of psychopathology rather than a group characteristic. Thus, personality dimensions might be of little value for facilitating early detection but might be important to consider in early intervention approaches.
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BACKGROUND Conventional factors do not fully explain the distribution of cardiovascular outcomes. Biomarkers are known to participate in well-established pathways associated with cardiovascular disease, and may therefore provide further information over and above conventional risk factors. This study sought to determine whether individual and/or combined assessment of 9 biomarkers improved discrimination, calibration and reclassification of cardiovascular mortality. METHODS 3267 patients (2283 men), aged 18-95 years, at intermediate-to-high-risk of cardiovascular disease were followed in this prospective cohort study. Conventional risk factors and biomarkers were included based on forward and backward Cox proportional stepwise selection models. RESULTS During 10-years of follow-up, 546 fatal cardiovascular events occurred. Four biomarkers (interleukin-6, neutrophils, von Willebrand factor, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D) were retained during stepwise selection procedures for subsequent analyses. Simultaneous inclusion of these biomarkers significantly improved discrimination as measured by the C-index (0.78, P = 0.0001), and integrated discrimination improvement (0.0219, P<0.0001). Collectively, these biomarkers improved net reclassification for cardiovascular death by 10.6% (P<0.0001) when added to the conventional risk model. CONCLUSIONS In terms of adverse cardiovascular prognosis, a biomarker panel consisting of interleukin-6, neutrophils, von Willebrand factor, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D offered significant incremental value beyond that conveyed by simple conventional risk factors.
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We report the concentrations of 28 PAHs, 15 oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs) and 11 trace metals/metalloids (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Se, and Zn) in muscle and gut + gill tissues of demersal fishes (Drapane africana, Cynoglossus senegalensis and Pomadasys peroteti) from three locations along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea (Ghana). The concentrations of ∑ 28PAHs in muscle tissues averaged 192 ng g− 1 dw (range: 71–481 ng g− 1 dw) and were not statistically different between locations. The concentrations of ∑ 28 PAHs were higher in guts + gills than in muscles. The PAH composition pattern was dominated by low molecular weight compounds (naphthalene, alkyl-naphthalenes and phenanthrene). All fish tissues had benzo[a]pyrene concentrations lower than the EU limit for food safety. Excess cancer risk from consumption of some fish was higher than the guideline value of 1 × 10− 6. The concentrations of ∑ 15 OPAHs in fish muscles averaged 422 ng g− 1 dw (range: 28–1715 ng g− 1dw). The ∑ 15 OPAHs/∑ 16 US-EPA PAHs concentration ratio was > 1 in 68% of the fish muscles and 100% of guts + gills. The log-transformed concentrations of PAHs and OPAHs in muscles, guts + gills were significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with their octanol–water partitioning coefficients, strongly suggesting that equilibrium partitioning from water/sediment into fish tissue was the main mechanism of bioaccumulation. The trace metal concentrations in the fish tissues were in the medium range when compared to fish from other parts of the world. The concentrations of some trace metals (Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn) were higher in guts + gills than in muscle tissues. The target hazard quotients for metals were < 1 and did not indicate a danger to the local population. We conclude that the health risk arising from the consumption of the studied fish (due to their PAHs and trace metals content) is minimal.
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BACKGROUND To investigate the performance of the MI Sxscore in a multicentre randomised trial of patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). METHODS AND RESULTS The MI Sxscore was prospectively determined among 1132 STEMI patients enrolled into the COMFORTABLE AMI trial, which randomised patients to treatment with bare-metal (BMS) or biolimus-eluting (BES) stents. Patient- (death, myocardial infarction, any revascularisation) and device-oriented (cardiac death, target-vessel MI, target lesion revascularisation) major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) were compared across MI Sxscore tertiles and according to stent type. The median MI SXscore was 14 (IQR: 9-21). Patients were divided into tertiles of Sxscorelow (≤10), Sxscoreintermediate (11-18) and Sxscorehigh (≥19). At 1year, patient-oriented MACE occurred in 15% of the Sxscorehigh, 9% of the Sxscoreintermediate and 5% of the Sxscorelow tertiles (p<0.001), whereas device-oriented MACE occurred in 8% of the Sxscorehigh, 6% of the Sxscoreintermediate and 4% of the Sxscorelow tertiles (p=0.03). Addition of the MI Sxscore to the TIMI risk score improved prediction of patient- (c-statistic value increase from 0.63 to 0.69) and device-oriented MACEs (c-statistic value increase from 0.65 to 0.70). Differences in the risk for device-oriented MACE between BMS and BES were evident among Sxscorehigh (13% vs. 4% HR 0.33 (0.15-0.74), p=0.007 rather than those in Sxscorelow: 4% vs. 3% HR 0.68 (0.24-1.97), p=0.48) tertiles. CONCLUSIONS The MI Sxscore allows risk stratification of patient- and device-oriented MACEs among patients undergoing PPCI. The addition of the MI Sxscore to the TIMI risk score is of incremental prognostic value among patients undergoing PPCI for treatment of STEMI.
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Starting from the early descriptions of Kraepelin and Bleuler, the construct of schizotypy was developed from observations of aberrations in nonpsychotic family members of schizophrenia patients. In contemporary diagnostic manuals, the positive symptoms of schizotypal personality disorder were included in the ultra high-risk (UHR) criteria 20 years ago, and nowadays are broadly employed in clinical early detection of psychosis. The schizotypy construct, now dissociated from strict familial risk, also informed research on the liability to develop any psychotic disorder, and in particular schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, even outside clinical settings. Against the historical background of schizotypy it is surprising that evidence from longitudinal studies linking schizotypy, UHR, and conversion to psychosis has only recently emerged; and it still remains unclear how schizotypy may be positioned in high-risk research. Following a comprehensive literature search, we review 18 prospective studies on 15 samples examining the evidence for a link between trait schizotypy and conversion to psychosis in 4 different types of samples: general population, clinical risk samples according to UHR and/or basic symptom criteria, genetic (familial) risk, and clinical samples at-risk for a nonpsychotic schizophrenia-spectrum diagnosis. These prospective studies underline the value of schizotypy in high-risk research, but also point to the lack of evidence needed to better define the position of the construct of schizotypy within a developmental psychopathology perspective of emerging psychosis and schizophrenia-spectrum disorders
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The preferred type of post-remission therapy (PRT) in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in first complete remission (CR1) is a subject of continued debate, especially in patients at higher risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM), including patients >40 years of age. We report results of a time-dependent multivariable analysis of allogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (alloHSCT) (n=337) versus chemotherapy (n=271) or autologous HSCT (autoHSCT) (n=152) in 760 patients aged 40-60 years with AML in CR1. Patients receiving alloHSCT showed improved overall survival (OS) as compared with chemotherapy (respectively, 57±3% vs 40±3% at 5 years, P<0.001). Comparable OS was observed following alloHSCT and autoHSCT in patients with intermediate-risk AML (60±4 vs 54±5%). However, alloHSCT was associated with less relapse (hazard ratio (HR) 0.51, P<0.001) and better relapse-free survival (RFS) (HR 0.74, P=0.029) as compared with autoHSCT in intermediate-risk AMLs. AlloHSCT was applied following myeloablative conditioning (n=157) or reduced intensity conditioning (n=180), resulting in less NRM, but comparable outcome with respect to OS, RFS and relapse. Collectively, these results show that alloHSCT is to be preferred over chemotherapy as PRT in patients with intermediate- and poor-risk AML aged 40-60 years, whereas autoHSCT remains a treatment option to be considered in patients with intermediate-risk AML.Leukemia advance online publication, 23 December 2014; doi:10.1038/leu.2014.332.
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BACKGROUND Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) represents a growing health burden associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. Consequently, risk prediction is of highest importance. Endothelial dysfunction has been recently shown to play an important role in the complex pathophysiology of HFpEF. We therefore aimed to assess von Willebrand factor (vWF), a marker of endothelial damage, as potential biomarker for risk assessment in patients with HFpEF. METHODS AND RESULTS Concentrations of vWF were assessed in 457 patients with HFpEF enrolled as part of the LUdwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. All-cause mortality was observed in 40% of patients during a median follow-up time of 9.7 years. vWF significantly predicted mortality with a hazard ratio (HR) per increase of 1 SD of 1.45 (95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.68; P<0.001) and remained a significant predictor after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), renal function, and frequent HFpEF-related comorbidities (adjusted HR per 1 SD, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.42; P=0.001). Most notably, vWF showed additional prognostic value beyond that achievable with NT-proBNP indicated by improvements in C-Statistic (vWF×NT-proBNP: 0.65 versus NT-proBNP: 0.63; P for comparison, 0.004) and category-free net reclassification index (37.6%; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS vWF is an independent predictor of long-term outcome in patients with HFpEF, which is in line with endothelial dysfunction as potential mediator in the pathophysiology of HFpEF. In particular, combined assessment of vWF and NT-proBNP improved risk prediction in this vulnerable group of patients.
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BACKGROUND The value of radical prostatectomy (RP) as an approach for very high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients is controversial. To examine the risk of 10-year cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and other-cause mortality (OCM) according to clinical and pathological characteristics of very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa patients treated with RP as the primary treatment option. METHODS In a multi-institutional cohort, 266 patients with very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa treated with RP were identified. All patients underwent RP and pelvic lymph-node dissection. Competing-risk analyses assessed 10-year CSM and OCM before and after stratification for age and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). RESULTS Overall, 34 (13%) patients died from PCa and 73 (28%) from OCM. Ten-year CSM and OCM rates ranged from 5.6% to 12.9% and from 10% to 38%, respectively. OCM was the leading cause of death in all subgroups. Age and comorbidities were the main determinants of OCM. In healthy men, CSM rate did not differ among age groups (10-year CSM rate for ⩽64, 65-69 and ⩾70 years: 16.2%, 11.5% and 17.1%, respectively). Men with a CCI ⩾1 showed a very low risk of CSM irrespective of age (10-year CSM: 5.6-6.1%), whereas the 10-year OCM rates increased with age up to 38% in men ⩾70 years. CONCLUSION Very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa represents a heterogeneous group. We revealed overall low CSM rates despite the highly unfavorable clinical disease. For healthy men, CSM was independent of age, supporting RP even for older men. Conversely, less healthy patients had the highest risk of dying from OCM while sharing very low risk of CSM, indicating that this group might not benefit from an aggressive surgical treatment. Outcome after RP as the primary treatment option in cT3b/4 PCa patients is related to age and comorbidity status.
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The value of electrocardiographic findings predicting adverse outcome in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia (ARVD) is not well known. We hypothesized that ventricular depolarization and repolarization abnormalities on the 12-lead surface electrocardiogram (ECG) predict adverse outcome in patients with ARVD. ECGs of 111 patients screened for the 2010 ARVD Task Force Criteria from 3 Swiss tertiary care centers were digitized and analyzed with a digital caliper by 2 independent observers blinded to the outcome. ECGs were compared in 2 patient groups: (1) patients with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: a composite of cardiac death, heart transplantation, survived sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or arrhythmic syncope) and (2) all remaining patients. A total of 51 patients (46%) experienced MACE during a follow-up period with median of 4.6 years (interquartile range 1.8 to 10.0). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed reduced times to MACE for patients with repolarization abnormalities according to Task Force Criteria (p = 0.009), a precordial QRS amplitude ratio (∑QRS mV V1 to V3/∑QRS mV V1 to V6) of ≤ 0.48 (p = 0.019), and QRS fragmentation (p = 0.045). In multivariable Cox regression, a precordial QRS amplitude ratio of ≤ 0.48 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39 to 6.15, p = 0.005), inferior leads T-wave inversions (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.15 to 5.18, p = 0.020), and QRS fragmentation (HR 2.65, 95% CI 1.1 to 6.34, p = 0.029) remained as independent predictors of MACE. In conclusion, in this multicenter, observational, long-term study, electrocardiographic findings were useful for risk stratification in patients with ARVD, with repolarization criteria, inferior leads TWI, a precordial QRS amplitude ratio of ≤ 0.48, and QRS fragmentation constituting valuable variables to predict adverse outcome.