Periodic orbits near a heteroclinic loop formed by one dimensional orbit and a 2-dimensional manifold: application to the charged collinear 3-body problem

The paper is devoted to the study of a type of differential systems which appear usually in the study of some Hamiltonian systems with 2 degrees of freedom. We prove the existence of infinitely many periodic orbits on each negative energy level. All these periodic orbits pass near the total collision. Finally we apply these results to study the existence of periodic orbits in the charged collinear 3–body problem.

Retribution in a cheap-talk experiment

We use a two-person 3-stage game to investigate whether people choose to punish or reward another player by sacrificing money to increase or decrease the other person’s payoff. One player sends a message indicating an intended play, which is either favorable or unfavorable to the other player in the game. After the message, the sender and the receiver play a simultaneous 2x2 game. A deceptive message may be made, in an effort to induce the receiver to make a play favorable to the sender. Our focus is on whether receivers’ rates of monetary sacrifice depend on the process and the perceived sender’s intention, as is suggested by the literature on deception and procedural satisfaction. Models such as Rabin (1993), Sen (1997), and Charness and Rabin (1999) also permit rates of sacrifice to be sensitive to the sender’s perceived intention, while outcome-based models such as Fehr and Schmidt (1999) and Bolton and Ockenfels (1997) predict otherwise. We find that deception substantially increases the punishment rate as a response to an action that is unfavorable to the receiver. We also find that a small but significant percentage of subjects choose to reward a favorable action choice made by the sender.

How tight should one's hands be tied? Fear of floating and credibility of exchange rate regimes

This paper analyzes the linkages between the credibility of a target zone regime, the volatility of the exchange rate, and the width of the band where the exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate. These three concepts should be related since the band width induces a trade-off between credibility and volatility. Narrower bands should give less scope for the exchange rate to fluctuate but may make agents perceive a larger probability of realignment which by itself should increase the volatility of the exchange rate. We build a model where this trade-off is made explicit. The model is used to understand the reduction in volatility experienced by most EMS countries after their target zones were widened on August 1993. As a natural extension, the model also rationalizes the existence of non-official, implicit target zones (or fear of floating), suggested by some authors.

Are one factor logarithmic volatility models useful to fit the features of financial data? An application to microsoft data.

This paper provides empirical evidence that continuous time models with one factor of volatility, in some conditions, are able to fit the main characteristics of financial data. It also reports the importance of the feedback factor in capturing the strong volatility clustering of data, caused by a possible change in the pattern of volatility in the last part of the sample. We use the Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) by Gallant and Tauchen (1996) to estimate logarithmic models with one and two stochastic volatility factors (with and without feedback) and to select among them.

On group strategy-proof mechanisms for a many-to-one matching model

For the many-to-one matching model in which firms have substitutable and quota q-separable preferences over subsets of workers we show that the workers-optimal stable mechanism is group strategy-proof for the workers. In order to prove this result, we also show that under this domain of preferences (which contains the domain of responsive preferences of the college admissions problem) the workers-optimal stable matching is weakly Pareto optimal for the workers and the Blocking Lemma holds as well. We exhibit an example showing that none of these three results remain true if the preferences of firms are substitutable but not quota q-separable.

Accuracy vs. simplicity: a complex trade-off

Inductive learning aims at finding general rules that hold true in a database. Targeted learning seeks rules for the predictions of the value of a variable based on the values of others, as in the case of linear or non-parametric regression analysis. Non-targeted learning finds regularities without a specific prediction goal. We model the product of non-targeted learning as rules that state that a certain phenomenon never happens, or that certain conditions necessitate another. For all types of rules, there is a trade-off between the rule's accuracy and its simplicity. Thus rule selection can be viewed as a choice problem, among pairs of degree of accuracy and degree of complexity. However, one cannot in general tell what is the feasible set in the accuracy-complexity space. Formally, we show that finding out whether a point belongs to this set is computationally hard. In particular, in the context of linear regression, finding a small set of variables that obtain a certain value of R2 is computationally hard. Computational complexity may explain why a person is not always aware of rules that, if asked, she would find valid. This, in turn, may explain why one can change other people's minds (opinions, beliefs) without providing new information.

I want you! An experiment studying the selection effect when assigning distributive power.

We study whether selection affects motivation. In our experiment subjects first answer a personality questionnaire. They then play a 3-person game. One of the three players decides between an outside option assigning him a positive amount, but leaving the two others empty-handed and allowing one of the other two players to distribute a pie. Treatments differ in the procedure by which distributive power is assigned: to a randomly determined or to a knowingly selected partner. Before making her decision the selecting player could consult the personality questionnaire of the other two players. Results show that knowingly selected players keep less for themselves than randomly selected ones and reward the selecting player more generously.

The relevance of post-match LTC: why has the Spanish labor market become as volatile as the US one?

We present a Search and Matching model with heterogeneous workers (entrants and incumbents) that replicates the stylized facts characterizing the US and the Spanish labor markets. Under this benchmark, we find the Post-Match Labor Turnover Costs (PMLTC) to be the centerpiece to explain why the Spanish labor market is as volatile as the US one. The two driving forces governing this volatility are the gaps between entrants and incumbents in terms of separation costs and productivity. We use the model to analyze the cyclical implications of changes in labor market institutions affecting these two gaps. The scenario with a low degree of workers’ heterogeneity illustrates its suitability to understand why the Spanish labor market has become as volatile as the US one.

(When) would i lie to you? comment on? deception: the role of consequences?

This paper reconsiders the evidence on lying or deception presented in Gneezy (2005,American Economic Review). We argue that Gneezy?s data cannot reject the hipótesis that people are one of two kinds: either a person will never lie, or a person will lie whenever she prefers the outcome obtained by lying over the outcome obtained by telling the truth. This implies that so long as lying induces a preferred outcome over truth-telling, a person?s decisión of whether to lie may be completely insensitive to other changes in the induced outcomes, such as exactly how much she monetarily gains relative to how much she hurts an anonymous partner. We run new but similar experiments to those of Gneezy in order to test this hypothesis. We find that our data cannot reject this hypothesis either, but we also discover substantial differences in behavior between our sub jects and Gneezy?s sub jects.

Equilibrium play and best response to (Stated) beliefs in constant sum games

We report experimental results on one-shot two person 3x3 constant sum games played by non-economists without previous experience in the laboratory. Although strategically our games are very similar to previous experiments in which game theory predictions fail dramatically, 80% of actions taken in our experiment coincided with the prediction of the unique Nash equilibrium in pure strategies and 73% of actions were best responses to elicited beliefs. We argue how social preferences, presentation effects and belief elicitation procedures may influence how subjects play in simple but non trivial games and explain the diferences we observe with respect to previous work.

Indirect immunofluorescence(IgG and IgM) tests for toxoplasmosis on 203 persons, with no symptomatology suggesting the disease, located in the city of Rio de Janeiro. Serological follow up one to two years later.

Clinical and serological follow up examinations were performed on 203 persons, from three to twenty years of age, from the otolaryngology department of a hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, with no symptomatology suggesting toxoplasmosis, but suffering from chronic tonsillitis. According to results obtained during the first indirect immunofluorescence tests, the patients were divided into following groups: Group I (non-reactive IgG and IgM), 98 persons (48.3%); Group II (1:16 ≤ IgG ≤ 1:256 and non-reactive IgM), 74 persons (36.5%); Group III (IgM ≥ 1:1024 and non-reactive IgM), 18 persons (8.8%), and Group IV (IgG and IgM reactive), 13 persons (6.4%). One to two years later, 131 (64.5%) of the 203 persons were reexamined by a second indirect immunofluorescence test. In the case of 66 persons (Group I) whose serum was non-reactive in the IgG and IgM classes during the first indirect immunofluorescence test, serum conversion was observed in aproximately 21.2%. in 65 individuals (49.6%), (Groups II, III and IV),with reactive serum in the IgG classes during the first indirect immunofluorescence test, the second reaction showed an increase in titres in 20% of the cases, a decrease in 67.7% of the cases, or no alterations in 12.3 of the cases. In the IgM class, all 131 sera were non-reactive at 116 dilution the second immunofluorescence test, including the 13 cases that had previously been reactive in the immunoglobulin class, Symptomatology suggesting toxoplasmosis was only observed in one case during the second testing, this patient's principal physical sign being hypertrophied lymph nodes. during this period, the Toxoplasma antibodies showed titres of IgG 1:32000 and non-reactive IgM, whilst one year previously, during the first test, these titres were IgG 1:1024 and IgM 1:64. Differences in the age, sex and skin coloring of patients were not statistically significant as regards alterations in the indirect immunofluorescence test titres.

Cells with neuronal characteristics differentiate and persist for one year in rat optic nerve explants cultures.

Evidence concerning the presence or absence of common neuronglia lineages in the postnatal mammalian central nervous system is still a matter of speculation. We address this problem using optic nerve explants, which show an extremely long survival in culture. Morphological, immunocytochemical and immunochemical methods were applied. The results obtained from in vitro tissue were compared with optic nerves (ONs) and whole-brain samples from animals of different ages. Newborn rat ONs represented the starting material of our tissue culture; they are composed of unmyelinated axons, astrocytes and progenitor cells but devoid of neuronal cell bodies. At this age, Western blots of ONs were positively stained by neurofilament and synapsin I specific antibodies. These bands increased in intensity during postnatal in situ development. In explant cultures, the glia cells reach a stage of functional differentiation and they maintain, together with undifferentiated cells, a complex histotypic organization. After 6 days in vitro, neurofilaments and synapsin I could not be detected on immunoblots, indicating that 1) axonal degeneration was completed, and 2) neuronal somata were absent at the time. Surprisingly, after about 4-5 weeks in culture, a new cell type appeared, which showed characteristics typical of neurons. After 406 days in vitro, neurofilaments and synapsin I were unequivocally detectable on Western blots. Furthermore, both immunocytochemical staining and light and electron microscopic examinations corroborated the presence of this earlier-observed cell type. These in vitro results clearly show the high developmental plasticity of ON progenitor cells, even late in development. The existence of a common neuron-glia precursor, which never gives rise to neurons in situ, is suggested.