Assessing interdependence among countries' fundamentals and its implications for exchange rate misalignment estimates: An empirical exercise based on GVAR

Exchange rates are important macroeconomic prices and changes in these rates a ect economic activity, prices, interest rates, and trade ows. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that the global vector autoregressions model (GVAR) proposed by Pesaran and co-authors can add relevant information to the literature on measuring exchange rate misalignment. Our empirical exercise suggests that the estimate exchange rate misalignment obtained from GVAR can be quite di erent to that using the traditional cointegrated time series techniques, which treat countries as detached entities. The di erences between the two approaches are more pronounced for small and developing countries. Our results also suggest a strong interdependence among eurozone countries, as expected

Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States

Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that it is possible to calculate the misalignment from a mixed ointegrated vector error correction framework. An empirical exercise using United States' real exchange rate data is performed. The results suggest that the model with mixed frequency data is preferred to the models with same frequency variables

Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates

Exchange rate misalignment assessment is becoming more relevant in recent period particularly after the nancial crisis of 2008. There are di erent methodologies to address real exchange rate misalignment. The real exchange misalignment is de ned as the di erence between actual real e ective exchange rate and some equilibrium norm. Di erent norms are available in the literature. Our paper aims to contribute to the literature by showing that Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach (BEER) adopted by Clark & MacDonald (1999), Ubide et al. (1999), Faruqee (1994), Aguirre & Calderón (2005) and Kubota (2009) among others can be improved in two following manners. The rst one consists of jointly modeling real e ective exchange rate, trade balance and net foreign asset position. The second one has to do with the possibility of explicitly testing over identifying restrictions implied by economic theory and allowing the analyst to show that these restrictions are not falsi ed by the empirical evidence. If the economic based identifying restrictions are not rejected it is also possible to decompose exchange rate misalignment in two pieces, one related to long run fundamentals of exchange rate and the other related to external account imbalances. We also discuss some necessary conditions that should be satis ed for disrcarding trade balance information without compromising exchange rate misalignment assessment. A statistical (but not a theoretical) identifying strategy for calculating exchange rate misalignment is also discussed. We illustrate the advantages of our approach by analyzing the Brazilian case. We show that the traditional approach disregard important information of external accounts equilibrium for this economy.

Organizations redesign and building of information systems

Develop software is still a risky business. After 60 years of experience, this community is still not able to consistently build Information Systems (IS) for organizations with predictable quality, within previously agreed budget and time constraints. Although software is changeable we are still unable to cope with the amount and complexity of change that organizations demand for their IS. To improve results, developers followed two alternatives: Frameworks that increase productivity but constrain the flexibility of possible solutions; Agile ways of developing software that keep flexibility with less upfront commitments. With strict frameworks, specific hacks have to be put in place to get around the framework construction options. In time this leads to inconsistent architectures that are harder to maintain due to incomplete documentation and human resources turnover. The main goals of this work is to create a new way to develop flexible IS for organizations, using web technologies, in a faster, better and cheaper way that is more suited to handle organizational change. To do so we propose an adaptive object model that uses a new ontology for data and action with strict normalizing rules. These rules should bound the effects of changes that can be better tested and therefore corrected. Interfaces are built with templates of resources that can be reused and extended in a flexible way. The “state of the world” for each IS is determined by all production and coordination acts that agents performed over time, even those performed by external systems. When bugs are found during maintenance, their past cascading effects can be checked through simulation, re-running the log of transaction acts over time and checking results with previous records. This work implements a prototype with part of the proposed system in order to have a preliminary assessment its feasibility and limitations.

Fractal correlation of heart rate variability in obese children

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Surface Integrity Analysis when Milling Ultrafine-grained Steels

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Torque, myoeletric sygnal and heart rate responses during concentric and eccentric exercises in older men

Background: The literature reports that the eccentric muscular action produces greater force and lower myoelectric activity than the concentric muscular action, while the heart rate (HR) responses are bigger during concentric contraction. Objectives: To investigate the maximum average torque (MAT), surface electromyographic (SEMG) and the heart rate (HR) responses during different types of muscular contraction and angular velocities in older men. Methods: Twelve healthy men (61.7 +/- 1.6years) performed concentric (C) and eccentric (E) isokinetic knee extension-flexion at 60 degrees/s and 120 degrees/s. SEMG activity was recorded from vastus lateralis muscle and normalized by Root Mean Square-RMS (mu V) of maximal isometric knee extension at 60 degrees. HR (beats/min) and was recorded at rest and throughout each contraction. The data were analyzed by the Friedman test for repeated measures with post hoc Dunn's test (p<0.05). Results: The median values of MAT (N.m/kg) was smaller and the RMS (mu V) was larger during concentric contraction (C60 degrees/s=2.80 and 0.99; C120 degrees/s=2.46 and 1.0) than eccentric (E60 degrees/s=3.94 and 0.85; E120 degrees/s=4.08 and 0.89), respectively. The HR variation was similar in the four conditions studied. Conclusion: The magnitude of MAT and RMS responses in older men were dependent of the nature of the muscular action and independent of the angular velocity, whereas HR response was not influenced by these factors.

Nonlinear methods of heart rate variability analysis in diabetes

Background: The autonomic dysfunction stands out among the complications associated to diabetes mellitus (DM) and may be evaluated through the heart rate variability (HRV), a noninvasive tool to investigate the autonomic nervous system that provides information of health impairments and may be analyzed by using linear and nonlinear methods. Several studies have shown that HRV measured in a linear form is altered in DM. Nevertheless, a few studies investigate the nonlinear behavior of HRV. Therefore, this study aims at gathering information regarding the autonomic changes in subjects with DM identified by nonlinear analysis of HRV.Methods: For that, searches were performed on Medline, SciELO, Lilacs and Cochrane databases using the crossing between the key-words: diabetic autonomic neuropathy, autonomic nervous system, diabetes mellitus and heart rate variability. As inclusion criteria, articles published on a period from 2000 to 2010 with DM type land type II population which assessed the autonomic nervous system by nonlinear indices HRV were considered.Results: The electronic search resulted in a total of 1873 references with the exclusion of 1623 titles and abstracts and from the 250 abstracts remaining, 8 studies were selected to the final analysis that completed the inclusion criteria.Conclusions: In general, the analysis showed that the nonlinear techniques of HRV allowed detecting autonomic changes in DM. The methods of nonlinear analysis are indicated as a possible tool to be used for early diagnosis and prognosis of autonomic dysfunction in DM.

Respiratory pressures and expiratory peak flow rate of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mortality rate in children caused by traffic accidents according to geographical regions : Brazil, 1997 - 2005

Lesões fatais em crianças causadas por acidentes de trânsito representam um problema em muitos países. Este estudo analisou a taxa de mortalidade em crianças passageiras de automóveis menores de 10 anos de idade no Brasil, entre 1997 e 2005. Para isso, o número de mortes foi obtido diretamente no banco de dados do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM) e os dados da população são projeções intercensitárias a partir censo demográfico do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) disponíveis pelo site do DATASUS. Foram calculadas, para os triênios compreendidos no período em estudo, as taxas de mortalidade por acidente de trânsito entre crianças passageiras de automóveis segundo faixa etária (menor que 1 ano, 1 a 4 e 5 a 9) e região geográfica. Os resultados mostraram taxas de mortalidade de 5,68, 7,32 e 6,78 (por 1.000.000), respectivamente, para os períodos 1997-1999, 2000-2002 e 2003-2005 para todo o Brasil. Crianças menores de 1 ano de idade apresentam taxa de mortalidade de 10,18 (por 1,000,000), maior que as observadas para as outras faixas etárias. Para o período 1997-2005, as maiores taxas foram observadas nas regiões Centro-Oeste e Sul, representando, respectivamente, 13,88 e 11,47 (por 1.000.000). Tais resultados mostram a situação de risco da criança em relação a acidentes de trânsito como passageiras de automóveis e contribuem para a elaboração de campanhas educativas de prevenção de lesões.

Comparative ablation rate from a Er : YAG laser on enamel and dentin of primary and permanent teeth

This study was conducted to analyze the ablation rate and micromorphological aspects of microcavities in enamel and dentin of primary and permanent teeth using a Er:YAG laser system. Micromorphological evaluation has been performed in terms of permanent teeth; however, little information about Er: YAG laser interaction with primary teeth can be found in the literature. Because children have been the most beneficiary patients with laser therapy in our offices, it is extremely necessary to compare the effects of this kind of laser system on the enamel and dentin of permanent and primary teeth. In this study, we used eleven intact primary anterior exfoliated teeth and six extracted permanent molar teeth. We used a commercial laser system: a Er: YAG Twin Light laser system (Fotona Medical Lasers, Slovenia) at 2940 nm, changing average energy levels per pulse ( 100, 200, 300, and 400 mJ) producing 48 microcavities in enamel and dentin of primary and permanent teeth. Primary teeth are more easily ablated than are permanent teeth, when related to enamel or dentin. However, while this laser system is capable of slowly revealing the enamel's microstructure, in dentin only the lowest laser energies permit this kind of observation, more easily decomposing the original tissue aspect, when related to primary or permanent teeth. Statistically, the only different factor at the 5% level was an energy per pulse of 400 mJ, confirming the results found in SEM. Our results showed that dentin in both primary and permanent teeth is less resistant to Er: YAG laser ablation; this fact is easily observed under SEM observation and through the ablation rate evaluation.

Aging reduces complexity of heart rate variability assessed by conditional entropy and symbolic analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Use of a semantically grained database system for distribution and control within design environments

This paper presents a technique to share the data stored in an object-oriented database aimed at designing environments. This technique shares data between two related databases, called the Original and Product databases, and is composed of three processes: data separation, evolution and integration. Whenever a block of data needs to be shared, it is spread into both databases, resulting in a block on the original database, and another into the Product database, with special links between them controlled by the Object Manager. These blocks do not need to be maintained identical during the evolution phase of the sharing process. Six types of links were defined, and by choosing one, the designer control the evolution and reintegration of the block in both databases. This process uses the composite object concept as the unit of control. The presented concepts can be applied to any data model with support to composite objects.

Application of ARX neural networks to model the rate of penetration of petroleum wells drilling

Bit performance prediction has been a challenging problem for the petroleum industry. It is essential in cost reduction associated with well planning and drilling performance prediction, especially when rigs leasing rates tend to follow the projects-demand and barrel-price rises. A methodology to model and predict one of the drilling bit performance evaluator, the Rate of Penetration (ROP), is presented herein. As the parameters affecting the ROP are complex and their relationship not easily modeled, the application of a Neural Network is suggested. In the present work, a dynamic neural network, based on the Auto-Regressive with Extra Input Signals model, or ARX model, is used to approach the ROP modeling problem. The network was applied to a real oil offshore field data set, consisted of information from seven wells drilled with an equal-diameter bit.

Measuring and analyzing color and texture information in anatomical leaf cross sections: An approach using computer vision to aid plant species identification

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)