Monitoring the temporal development of natural hazard risks as a basis indicator for climate change adaptation.

The potential effects of climatic changes on natural risks are widely discussed. But the formulation of strategies for adapting risk management practice to climate changes requires knowledge of the related risks for people and economic values. The main goals of this work were (1) the development of a method for analysing and comparing risks induced by different natural hazard types, (2) highlighting the most relevant natural hazard processes and related damages, (3) the development of an information system for the monitoring of the temporal development of natural hazard risk and (4) the visualisation of the resulting information for the wider public. A comparative exposure analysis provides the basis for pointing out the hot spots of natural hazard risks in the province of Carinthia, Austria. An analysis of flood risks in all municipalities provides the basis for setting the priorities in the planning of flood protection measures. The methods form the basis for a monitoring system that periodically observes the temporal development of natural hazard risks. This makes it possible firstly to identify situations in which natural hazard risks are rising and secondly to differentiate between the most relevant factors responsible for the increasing risks. The factors that most influence the natural risks could be made evident.

SMARTnet: A Sensor for Monitoring the Geostationary Ring

As the number of space debris is increasing in the geostationary ring, it becomes mandatory for any satellite operator to avoid any collisions. Space debris in geosynchronous orbits may be observed with optical telescopes. Other than radar, that requires very large dishes and transmission powers for sensing high-altitude objects, optical observations do not depend on active illumination from ground and may be performed with notably smaller apertures. The detection size of an object depends on the aperture of the telescope, sky background and exposure time. With a telescope of 50 cm aperture, objects down to approximately 50 cm may be observed. This size is regarded as a threshold for the identification of hazardous objects and the prevention of potentially catastrophic collisions in geostationary orbits. In collaboration with the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB), the German Space Operations Center (GSOC) is building a small aperture telescope to demonstrate the feasibility of optical surveillance of the geostationary ring. The telescope will be located in the southern hemisphere and complement an existing telescope in the northern hemisphere already operated by AIUB. These two telescopes provide an optimum coverage of European GEO satellites and enable a continuous monitoring independent of seasonal limitations. The telescope will be operated completely automatically. The automated operations should be demonstrated covering the full range of activities including scheduling of observations, telescope and camera control as well as data processing.

Cellular hyper-excitability caused by mutations that alter the activation process of voltage-gated sodium channels.

Voltage-gated sodium channels (Nav) are widely expressed as macro-molecular complexes in both excitable and non-excitable tissues. In excitable tissues, the upstroke of the action potential is the result of the passage of a large and rapid influx of sodium ions through these channels. NaV dysfunction has been associated with an increasingly wide range of neurological, muscular and cardiac disorders. The purpose of this review is to summarize the recently identified sodium channel mutations that are linked to hyper-excitability phenotypes and associated with the alteration of the activation process of voltage gated sodium channels. Indeed, several clinical manifestations that demonstrate an alteration of tissue excitability were recently shown to be strongly associated with the presence of mutations that affect the activation process of the Nav. These emerging genotype-phenotype correlations have expanded the clinical spectrum of sodium channelopathies to include disorders which feature a hyper-excitability phenotype that may or may not be associated with a cardiomyopathy. The p.I141V mutation in SCN4A and SCN5A, as well as its homologous p.I136V mutation in SCN9A, are interesting examples of mutations that have been linked to inherited hyperexcitability myotonia, exercise-induced polymorphic ventricular arrhythmias and erythromelalgia, respectively. Regardless of which sodium channel isoform is investigated, the substitution of the isoleucine to valine in the locus 141 induces similar modifications in the biophysical properties of the Nav by shifting the voltage-dependence of steady state activation toward more negative potentials.

Exploring professional orientations to community voice in professional practice settings: The IMAP process

The tension between technical experts and the populations they seek to serve is well established in the literature examining professional social problem solving. In this piece, I examine this tension as one between the distinct discursive worlds of technical expertise and community voice. I develop an analytic process, IMAP, for exploring this tension by looking at a wide variety of professional orientations around a relatively fixed concept of community voice. IMAP involves I&barbelow;dentifying social problem solvers, M&barbelow;apping social problem solvers' claims, A&barbelow;nalyzing professional orientations that arise from this mapping, and P&barbelow;redicting, diagnosing, and remediating conflicts. IMAP can be used by analysts external to social problem solving settings or by social problem solvers themselves. The use of IMAP by external experts poses questions of expert alignment with either of the discursive worlds. I examine two cases in public health practice settings: a mobile immunization service and the efforts of a foundation to improve health in an inner-city neighborhood. I develop four modal types that can be anticipated in social problem solving settings or, more specifically, in public health practice. Understanding of these “world views” can enhance mutual understanding between public health professionals and between public health professionals and the communities they seek to serve. IMAP might also address ongoing conflicts to clarify differences in unspoken normative commitments and the impact of these on social problem solving. I discuss implications of the research for public health practice and further research in the area. ^

Optimal Test for Parameter Instability When the Unstable Process and the Error Distribution are Unknown

This paper proposes asymptotically optimal tests for unstable parameter process under the feasible circumstance that the researcher has little information about the unstable parameter process and the error distribution, and suggests conditions under which the knowledge of those processes does not provide asymptotic power gains. I first derive a test under known error distribution, which is asymptotically equivalent to LR tests for correctly identified unstable parameter processes under suitable conditions. The conditions are weak enough to cover a wide range of unstable processes such as various types of structural breaks and time varying parameter processes. The test is then extended to semiparametric models in which the underlying distribution in unknown but treated as unknown infinite dimensional nuisance parameter. The semiparametric test is adaptive in the sense that its asymptotic power function is equivalent to the power envelope under known error distribution.

British Museum Karaite MSS : descriptions and collations of 6 Karaite manuscripts of portions of the Hebrew Bible in Arabic characters; with a compl. reprod. by the autotype process of one, Exod. 1,1-8,5, in 42 faces

by Reinhart Hoerning

A coalescent analysis for modeling the mutation process in colorectal cancer

Colorectal cancer is the forth most common diagnosed cancer in the United States. Every year about a hundred forty-seven thousand people will be diagnosed with colorectal cancer and fifty-six thousand people lose their lives due to this disease. Most of the hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) and 12% of the sporadic colorectal cancer show microsatellite instability. Colorectal cancer is a multistep progressive disease. It starts from a mutation in a normal colorectal cell and grows into a clone of cells that further accumulates mutations and finally develops into a malignant tumor. In terms of molecular evolution, the process of colorectal tumor progression represents the acquisition of sequential mutations. ^ Clinical studies use biomarkers such as microsatellite or single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to study mutation frequencies in colorectal cancer. Microsatellite data obtained from single genome equivalent PCR or small pool PCR can be used to infer tumor progression. Since tumor progression is similar to population evolution, we used an approach known as coalescent, which is well established in population genetics, to analyze this type of data. Coalescent theory has been known to infer the sample's evolutionary path through the analysis of microsatellite data. ^ The simulation results indicate that the constant population size pattern and the rapid tumor growth pattern have different genetic polymorphic patterns. The simulation results were compared with experimental data collected from HNPCC patients. The preliminary result shows the mutation rate in 6 HNPCC patients range from 0.001 to 0.01. The patients' polymorphic patterns are similar to the constant population size pattern which implies the tumor progression is through multilineage persistence instead of clonal sequential evolution. The results should be further verified using a larger dataset. ^

Improving disclosure of medical errors: Including patients and family members in the disclosure process

Over the last decade, adverse events and medical errors have become a main focus of interest for the standards of quality and safety in the U.S. healthcare system (Weinstein & Henderson, 2009). Particularly when a medical error occurs, the disclosure of medical errors and its practices have become a focal point of the healthcare process. Patients and family members who have experienced a medical error might be able to provide knowledge and insight on how to improve the disclose process. However, patient and family member are not typically involved in the disclosure process, thus their experiences go unnoticed. ^ The purpose of this research was to explore how best to include patients and family members in the disclosure process regarding a medical error. The research consisted of 28 qualitative interviews from three stakeholder groups: Hospital Administrators, Clinical Service Providers, and Patients and Family Members. They were asked for their ideas and suggestions on how best to include patients and family members in the disclosure process. Framework Analysis was used to analyze this data and find prevalent themes based on the primary research question. A secondary aim was to index categories created based on the interviews that were collected. Data was used from the Texas Disclosure and Compensation Study with Dr. Eric Thomas as the Principal Investigator. Full acknowledgement of access to this data is given to Dr. Thomas. ^ The themes from the research revealed that each stakeholder group was interested and open to including patients and family members in the disclosure process and that the disclosure process should not be a "one-way" avenue. The themes gave many suggestions regarding how to best include patients and family members in the disclosure process of a medical error. Secondary aims revealed several ways to assess the ideas and suggestion given by the stakeholders. Overall, acceptability of getting the perspective of patients and family members was the most common theme. Comparison of each stakeholder group revealed that including patients and family members would be beneficial to improving hospital disclosure practices. ^ Conclusions included a list of recommendations and measureable appropriate strategies that could provide hospital with key stakeholders insights on how to improve their disclosure process. Sharing patients and family members experience with healthcare providers can encourage a shift in culture where patients are valued and active in participating in hospital practices. To my knowledge, this research is the very first of its kind and moves the disclosure process conversation forward in a patient-family member inclusion direction that will assist in improving disclosure practices. Future research should implement and evaluate the success of the various inclusion strategies.^

Bringing Non-governmental Actors into the Policymaking Process: The Case of Local Development Policy in Thailand

During the past two decades in Thailand, non-governmental actors, such as NGOs, intellectuals, and people's organizations, have found widening opportunities to participate in policy formation and in the implementation of local development. The government has facilitated the formation of civil society forums, in the expectation of influencing local-level governance. The last two national five-year development plans were formulated after taking into account the voices of people in the provinces. Even though they may seem petty, some state funds are now transmitted through non-governmental institutions for policy implementation at the grassroots level. These changes have their origin in a reformation of rural development administration in early 1980s. This reformation in due course led to policies that have allowed the participation of non-governmental actors. Meanwhile, rural people have proved their ability to engage in participatory development by forming various local organizations, while NGOs have grown to be proficient facilitators of local development. This paper describes the process whereby three leading actors, namely the government, local people, and the NGOs, have interacted to bring about a more participatory system of local development administration.

The LTTE Proposals for an Interim Self-Governing Authority and Future of the Peace Process in Sri Lanka

The political brinkmanship of the Liberation Tigers of the Tamil Eelam has been illustrated vividly by the way in which it brought forward its proposals for an Interim Self-Governing Authority by exploiting the vulnerabilities of the United National Front Government. In the proposals the LTTE articulated its political intentions in concrete constitutional terms for the first time. The Proposals rationalize the armed struggle and a contractual agreement outside the Constitution. The plenary powers of the ISGA exceed the federal formula; effectively exclude the institutions of the state of Sri Lanka from the North-East; and clear the route for a separate state. This situation demands a redirection of the peace process which requires a clear political vision and a proper strategy with alternative proposals on the part of the government. In the face of present impasse of the peace process the challenges before the new Freedom Alliance government are formidable.