Cost-effectiveness analysis of humanitarian relief interventions: visceral leishmaniasis treatment in the Sudan

Spending by aid agencies on emergencies has quadrupled over the last decade, to over US$ 6 billion. To date, cost-effectiveness has seldom been considered in the prioritization and evaluation of emergency interventions. The sheer volume of resources spent on humanitarian aid and the chronicity of many humanitarian interventions call for more attention to be paid to the issue of 'value for money'. In this paper we present data from a major humanitarian crisis, an epidemic of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in war-torn Sudan. The special circumstances provided us, in retrospect, with unusually accurate data on excess mortality, costs of the intervention and its effects, thus allowing us to express cost-effectiveness as the cost per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted. The cost-effectiveness ratio, of US$ 18.40 per DALY (uncertainty range between US$ 13.53 and US$ 27.63), places the treatment of VL in Sudan among health interventions considered 'very flood value for money' (interventions of less than US$ 25 per DALY). We discuss the usefulness of this analysis to the internal management of the VL programme, the procurement of funds for the programme, and more generally, to priority setting in humanitarian relief interventions. We feel that in evaluations of emergency interventions attempts could be made more often to perform cost-effectiveness analyses, including the use of DALYs, provided that the outcomes of these analyses are seen in the broad context of the emergency situation and its consequences on the affected population. This paper provides a first contribution to what is hoped to become an international database of cost-effectiveness studies of health outcome such as the DALY.

Predicting composition of leg sections with anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance analysis using magnetic resonance imaging as reference

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was used to evaluate and compare with anthropometry a fundamental bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) method for predicting muscle and adipose tissue composition in the lower limb. Healthy volunteers (eight men and eight women), aged 41 to 62 years, with mean (S.D.) body mass indices of 28.6 (5.4) kg/m(2) and 25.1 (5.4) kg/m(2) respectively, were subjected to MRI leg scans, from which 20-cm sections of thigh and IO-cm sections of lower leg (calf) were analysed for muscle and adipose tissue content, using specifically developed software. Muscle and adipose tissue were also predicted from anthropometric measurements of circumferences and skinfold thicknesses, and by use of fundamental BIA equations involving section impedance at 50 kHz and tissue-specific resistivities. Anthropometric assessments of circumferences, cross-sectional areas and volumes for total constituent tissues matched closely MRI estimates. Muscle volume was substantially overestimated (bias: thigh, -40%; calf, -18%) and adipose tissue underestimated (bias: thigh, 43%; calf, 8%) by anthropometry, in contrast to generally better predictions by the fundamental BIA approach for muscle (bias:thigh, -12%; calf, 5%) and adipose tissue (bias:thigh, 17%; calf, -28%). However, both methods demonstrated considerable individual variability (95% limits of agreement 20-77%). In general, there was similar reproducibility for anthropometric and fundamental BIA methods in the thigh (inter-observer residual coefficient of variation for muscle 3.5% versus 3.8%), but the latter was better in the calf (inter-observer residual coefficient of variation for muscle 8.2% versus 4.5%). This study suggests that the fundamental BIA method has advantages over anthropometry for measuring lower limb tissue composition in healthy individuals.

Finite element analysis of flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems

We use theoretical and numerical methods to investigate the general pore-fluid flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems respectively. Analytical solutions have been rigorously derived for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function and excess pore-fluid pressure near a circular lens in a hydrodynamic system. These analytical solutions provide not only a better understanding of the physics behind the problem, but also a valuable benchmark solution for validating any numerical method. Since a geological lens is surrounded by a medium of large extent in nature and the finite element method is efficient at modelling only media of finite size, the determination of the size of the computational domain of a finite element model, which is often overlooked by numerical analysts, is very important in order to ensure both the efficiency of the method and the accuracy of the numerical solution obtained. To highlight this issue, we use the derived analytical solutions to deduce a rigorous mathematical formula for designing the computational domain size of a finite element model. The proposed mathematical formula has indicated that, no matter how fine the mesh or how high the order of elements, the desired accuracy of a finite element solution for pore-fluid flow near a geological lens cannot be achieved unless the size of the finite element model is determined appropriately. Once the finite element computational model has been appropriately designed and validated in a hydrodynamic system, it is used to examine general pore-fluid flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrothermal systems. Some interesting conclusions on the behaviour of geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems have been reached through the analytical and numerical analyses carried out in this paper.

Work domain analysis for training-system definition and acquisition

Training-needs analysis is critical for defining and procuring effective training systems. However, traditional approaches to training-needs analysis are not suitable for capturing the demands of highly automated and computerized work domains. In this article, we propose that work domain analysis can identify the functional structure of a work domain that must be captured in a training system, so that workers can be trained to deal with unpredictable contingencies that cannot be handled by computer systems. To illustrate this argument, we outline a work domain analysis of a fighter aircraft that defines its functional structure in terms of its training objectives, measures of performance, basic training functions, physical functionality, and physical context. The functional structure or training needs identified by work domain analysis can then be used as a basis for developing functional specifications for training systems, specifically its design objectives, data collection capabilities, scenario generation capabilities, physical functionality, and physical attributes. Finally, work domain analysis also provides a useful framework for evaluating whether a tendered solution fulfills the training needs of a work domain.

Analysis of the substrate specificity of human sulfotransferases SULT1A1 and SULT1A3: Site-directed mutagenesis and kinetic studies

Sulfonation is an important metabolic process involved in the excretion and in some cases activation of various endogenous compounds and xenobiotics. This reaction is catalyzed by a family of enzymes named sulfotransferases. The cytosolic human sulfotransferases SULT1A1 and SULT1A3 have overlapping yet distinct substrate specificities. SULT1A1 favors simple phenolic substrates such as p-nitrophenol, whereas SULT1A3 prefers monoamine substrates such as dopamine. In this study we have used a variety of phenolic substrates to functionally characterize the role of the amino acid at position 146 in SULT1A1 and SULT1A3. First, the mutation A146E in SULT1A1 yielded a SULT1A3-like protein with respect to the Michaelis constant for simple phenols. The mutation E146A in SULT1A3 resulted in a SULT1A1-like protein with respect to the Michaelis constant for both simple phenols and monoamine compounds. When comparing the specificity of SULT1A3 toward tyramine with that for p-ethylphenol (which differs from tyramine in having no amine group on the carbon side chain), we saw a 200-fold preference for tyramine. The kinetic data obtained with the E146A mutant of SULT1A3 for these two substrates clearly showed that this protein preferred substrates without an amine group attached. Second, changing the glutamic acid at position 146 of SULT1A3 to a glutamine, thereby neutralizing the negative charge at this position, resulted in a 360-fold decrease in the specificity constant for dopamine. The results provide strong evidence that residue 146 is crucial in determining the substrate specificity of both SULT1A1 and SULT1A3 and suggest that there is a direct interaction between glutamic acid 146 in SULT1A3 and monoamine substrates.

A simple analysis of the US emission permits auctions

We examine a stylized version of EPA auctions when agents know the list of values of sellers and buyers. There are inefficient equilibria where no goods are traded and efficient equilibria where all exchange occurs at a uniform price. We also provide examples under incomplete information when the uniform price equilibrium holds and when it does not hold. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. JEL classification: D44; Q29.

Metabolic analysis of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) production by recombinant Escherichia coli

Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) (PHB) production by fermentation was examined under both restricted- and ample-oxygen supply conditions in a single fed-batch fermentation. Recombinant Escherichia coli transformed with the PHB production plasmid pSYL107 was grown to reach high cell density (227 g/l dry cell weight) with a high PHB content (78% of dry cell weight), using a glucose-based minimal medium. A simple flux model containing 12 fluxes was developed and applied to the fermentation data. A superior closure (95%) of the carbon mass balance was achieved. When the data were put into use, the results demonstrated a surprisingly large excretion of formate and lactate. Even though periods of severe oxygen limitation coincided with rapid acetate and lactate excretion, PHB productivity and carbon utilization efficiency were not significantly impaired. These results are very positive in reducing oxygen demand in an industrial PHA fermentation without sacrificing its PHA productivity, thereby reducing overall production costs.

Synthesis of [Cu-2(Me-2[9]aneN(2)S)(2)(OH)(2)] (PF6)(2), a hydroxo-bridged copper(II) complex of N,N '-dimethyl-1-thia-4,7-diazacyclononane (Me-2[9]aneN(2)S). X-ray structural analysis, magnetic susceptibility, EPR and visible spectroscopy

The bis(mu-hydroxo) complex [Cu-2(Me-2[9]aneN(2)S)(2)(OH)(2)](PF6)(2) (Me-2[9]aneN(2)S = N,N'-dimethyl-1-thia-4,7-diazacyclononane) results after reaction of [Cu(Me-2[9]aneN(2)S)(MeCN)] (PF6) with dioxygen at -78 degrees C in acetonitrile. The complex has been characterized by X-ray crystallography: orthorhombic, space group Pnma, with a 18.710(3), b 16.758(2), c 9.593(2) Angstrom, and Z = 4. The structure refined to a final R value of 0.051. The complex contains two copper(II) ions bridged by two hydroxo groups with Cu ... Cu 2.866(1) Angstrom. The solid-state magnetic susceptibility study reveals ferromagnetic coupling, the fitting parameters being J = +46+/-5 cm(-1), g = 2.01+/-0.01 and theta = -0.58+/-0.03 K. The frozen-solution e.p.r. spectrum in dimethyl sulfoxide is characteristic of a monomeric copper(II) ion (g(parallel to) 2.300, g(perpendicular to) 2.063; A(parallel to) 156.2 x 10(-4) cm(-1), A(perpendicular to) 9.0 x 10(-4) cm(-1)) with an N2O2 donor set. Thioether coordination to the copper(II) in solution is supported by the presence of an intense absorption assigned to a sigma(S)-->Cu-II LMCT transition at c. 34000 cm(-1). The single-crystal spectrum of [Cu-2(Me-2[9]aneN(2)S)(2)(OH)(2)] (PF6)(2) (273 K) reveals d-->d transitions at 14500 and 18300 cm(-1) and a weak pi(S)-->Cu-II charge-transfer band at approximately 25000 cm(-1).

Sensitivity of multiple frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis to changes in ion status

Bioelectrical impedance analysis has found extensive application as a simple noninvasive method for the assessment of body fluid volumes, The measured impedance is, however, not only related to the volume of fluid but also to its inherent resistivity. The primary determinant of the resistivities of body fluids is the concentration of ions. The aim of this study was to investigate the sensitivity of bioelectrical impedance analysis to bodily ion status. Whole body impedance over a range of frequencies (4-1012 kHz) of rats was measured during infusion of various concentrations of saline into rats concomitant with measurement of total body and intracellular water by tracer dilution techniques. Extracellular resistance (R-o), intracellular resistance (R-i) and impedance at the characteristic frequency (Z(c)) were calculated. R-o and Z(c) were used to predict extracellular and total body water respectively using previously published formulae. The results showed that whilst R-o and Z(c) decreased proportionately to the amount of NaCl infused, R-i increased only slightly. Impedances at the end of infusion predicted increases iu TBW and ECW of approximately 4-6% despite a volume increase of less than 0.5% in TBW due to the volume of fluid infused. These data are discussed in relation to the assumption of constant resistivity in the prediction of fluid volumes from impedance data.

Life-cycle preferences over consumption and health: when is cost-effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost-benefit analysis?

This paper studies life-cycle preferences over consumption and health status. We show that cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis if the Lifetime utility function is additive over time, multiplicative in the utility of consumption and the utility of health status, and if the utility of consumption is constant over time. We derive the conditions under which the lifetime utility function takes this form, both under expected utility theory and under rank-dependent utility theory, which is currently the most important nonexpected utility theory. If cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis, it is possible to derive tractable expressions for the willingness to pay for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The willingness to pay for QALYs depends on wealth, remaining life expectancy, health status, and the possibilities for intertemporal substitution of consumption. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of long-term light-trap data for Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia: the effect of climate and crop host plants

Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches at Narrabri, Australia, were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner). The size of the second generation was significantly related to the size of the first generation, to winter rainfall, which had a positive effect, and to spring rainfall which had a negative effect. These variables accounted for up to 96% of the variation in size of the second generation from year to year. Rainfall and crop hosts were also important for the size of the third generation. The area and tonnage of many potential host crops were significantly correlated with winter rain. When winter rain was omitted from the analysis, the sizes of both the second and third generations could be expressed as a function of the size of the previous generation and of the areas planted to lucerne, sorghum and maize. Lucerne and maize always had positive coefficients and sorghum a negative one. We extended our analysis to catches of H. punctigera (Wallengren), which declines in abundance after the second generation. Winter rain had a positive effect on the sizes of the second and third generations, and rain in spring or early summer had a negative effect. Only the area grown to lucerne had a positive effect on abundance. Forecasts of pest levels from a few months to a few weeks in advance are discussed, along with the improved understanding of the seasonal dynamics of both species and the significance of crops in the management of insecticide resistance for H. armigera.

Wall material properties of yeast cells. Part II. Analysis

In the preceding paper (Part I) force-deformation data were measured with the compression experiment in conjunction with the initial radial stretch ratio and the initial wall-thickness to cell-radius ratio for baker's yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae). In this paper, these data have been analysed with the mechanical model of Smith et al. (Smith, Moxham & Middelberg (1998) Chemical Engineering Science, 53, 3913-3922) with the wall constitutive behaviour defined a priori as incompressible and linear-elastic. This analysis determined the mean Young's modulus ((E) over bar), mean maximum von Mises stress-at-failure (<(sigma)over bar>(VM,f)) and mean maximum von Mises strain-at failure (<(epsilon)over bar>(VM,f)) to be (E) over bar = 150 +/- 15 MPa, <(sigma)over bar>(VM,f) = 70 +/- 4 MPa and <(epsilon)over bar>(VM,f) = 0.75 +/- 0.08, respectively. The mean Young's modulus was not dependent (P greater than or equal to 0.05) on external osmotic pressure (0-0.8 MPa) nor compression rate (1.03-7.68 mu m/s) suggesting the incompressible linear-elastic relationship is representative of the actual cell-wall constitutive behaviour. Hydraulic conductivities were also determined and were comparable to other similar cell types (0-2.5 mu m/MPa s). The hydraulic conductivity distribution was not dependent on external osmotic pressure (0-0.8 MPa) nor compression rate (1.03-7.68 mu m/s) suggesting inclusion of cell-wall permeability in the mechanical model is justified. <(epsilon)over bar>(VM,f) was independent of cell diameter and to a first-approximation unaffected (P greater than or equal to 0.01) by external osmotic pressure and compression rate, thus providing a reasonable failure criterion. This criterion states that the cell-wall material will break when the strain exceeds <(epsilon)over bar>(VM,f) = 0.75 +/- 0.08. Variability in overall cell strength during compression was shown to be primarily due to biological variability in the maximum von Mises strain-at-failure. These data represent the first estimates of cell-wall material properties for yeast and the first fundamental analysis of cell-compression data. They are essential for describing cell-disruption at the fundamental level of fluid-cell interactions in general bioprocesses. They also provide valuable new measurements for yeast-cell physiologists. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.