Verification of the standard model of the photorefractive nonlinearity in BSO crystals

On the basis of the standard model for the photorefractive nonlinearity we investigate whether a systematic description of the dependence of two-beam energy exchange on beam polarization and grating vector K is possible. Our result is that there is good agreement between theory and experiment with respect to the polarization properties and semi-quantitative agreement with respect to the K-dependence of the energy exchange.

Forecasting the UK/US exchange rate with divisia monetary models and neural networks

This paper compares the UK/US exchange rate forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models based on monetary fundamentals, to a random walk (RW) model. Structural breaks are identified and taken into account. The exchange rate forecasting framework is also used for assessing the relative merits of the official Simple Sum and the weighted Divisia measures of money. Overall, there are four main findings. First, the majority of the models with fundamentals are able to beat the RW model in forecasting the UK/US exchange rate. Second, the most accurate forecasts of the UK/US exchange rate are obtained with a nonlinear model. Third, taking into account structural breaks reveals that the Divisia aggregate performs better than its Simple Sum counterpart. Finally, Divisia-based models provide more accurate forecasts than Simple Sum-based models provided they are constructed within a nonlinear framework.

Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In this paper we investigate whether using a more stable underlying money demand function results in improvements in forecasts of monetary models of exchange rates. More specifically, we use a sweepadjusted measure of US monetary aggregate M1 which has been shown to have a more stable money demand function than the official M1 measure. The results suggest that the monetary models of exchange rates contain information about future movements of exchange rates but the success of such models depends on the stability of money demand functions and the specifications of the models.

Leader-member exchange and contextual performance:the mediating influence of organization-based self-esteem

This study examined the mediating influence of organization-based self-esteem (OBSE) on the relationship between leader-member exchange (LMX) and contextual performance. Respondents were Indian employees and their immediate supervisors. Results of structural equation modeling (SEM) that compared the fit of a fully mediated model to a partially mediated model revealed support for the hypothesized fully mediated model. Specifically, the SEM results showed the relationship between LMX and the contextual performance facets of interpersonal facilitation and job dedication to be indirect, through OBSE. Support for the hypothesized mediating influence of OBSE highlights the multiple motivational underpinnings of contextual performance

Verification of the standard model of the photorefractive nonlinearity in BSO crystals

On the basis of the standard model for the photorefractive nonlinearity we investigate whether a systematic description of the dependence of two-beam energy exchange on beam polarization and grating vector K is possible. Our result is that there is good agreement between theory and experiment with respect to the polarization properties and semi-quantitative agreement with respect to the K-dependence of the energy exchange.

Total solution of Gibilaro and Rowe model for a segregating fluidised bed

This study re-examines the one-dimensional equilibrium model of Gibilaro and Rowe (1974) for a segregating gas fluidized bed. The model was based on volumetric jetsam concentration and divided the bed contents into bulk and wake phases, taking account of bulk and wake flux, segregation, exchange between the bulk and wake phases, and axial mixing. Due to the complex nature of the model and its unstable solution, the lack of computing power at the time prevented the authors from doing little more than the analytical solutions to specific cases of this model. This paper provides a numerical total solution and allows the effect of the respective parameters to be compared for the first time. There is also a comparison with experimental results, which showed a reasonable agreement.

Bid-ask spread dynamics in foreign exchange markets

The aim of this paper is to examine the short term dynamics of foreign exchange rate spreads. Using a vector autoregressive model (VAR) we show that most of the variation in the spread comes from the long run dependencies between past and future spreads rather than being caused by changes in inventory, adverse selection, cost of carry or order processing costs. We apply the Integrated Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) algorithm of Inclan and Tiao (1994) to discover how often spread volatility changes. We find that spread volatility shifts are relatively uncommon and shifts in one currency spread tend not to spillover to other currency spreads. © 2013.

Pricing-to-market using EGARCH-error correction model

In this paper, the authors use an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH) error-correction model (ECM), that is, EGARCH-ECM, to estimate the pass-through effects of foreign exchange (FX) rates and producers’ prices for 20 U.K. export sectors. The long-run adjustment of export prices to FX rates and producers’ prices is within the range of -1.02% (for the Textiles sector) and -17.22% (for the Meat sector). The contemporaneous pricing-to-market (PTM) coefficient is within the range of -72.84% (for the Fuels sector) and -8.05% (for the Textiles sector). Short-run FX rate pass-through is not complete even after several months. Rolling EGARCH-ECMs show that the short and long-run effects of FX rate and producers’ prices fluctuate substantially as are asymmetry and volatility estimates before equilibrium is achieved.

Leader‐Member Exchange (LMX) and performance:a meta‐analytic review

This paper reports a meta-analysis that examines the relationship between leader-member exchange (LMX) relationship quality and a multidimensional model of work performance (task, citizenship, and counterproductive performance). The results show a positive relationship between LMX and task performance (146 samples, ρ = .30) as well as citizenship performance (97 samples, ρ = .34), and negatively with counterproductive performance (19 samples, ρ = -.24). Of note, there was a positive relationship between LMX and objective task performance (20 samples, ρ = .24). Trust, motivation, empowerment, and job satisfaction mediated the relationship between LMX and task and citizenship performance with trust in the leader having the largest effect. There was no difference due to LMX measurement instrument (e.g., LMX7, LMX-MDM). Overall, the relationship between LMX and performance was weaker when (a) measures were obtained from a different source or method and (b) LMX was measured by the follower than the leader (with common source- and method-biased effects stronger for leader-rated LMX quality). Finally, there was evidence for LMX leading to task performance but not for reverse or reciprocal directions of effects.

Towards a multilevel model of the high performance work systems–workplace safety relationship

Human Resource (HR) systems and practices generally referred to as High Performance Work Practices (HPWPs), (Huselid, 1995) (sometimes termed High Commitment Work Practices or High Involvement Work Practices) have attracted much research attention in past decades. Although many conceptualizations of the construct have been proposed, there is general agreement that HPWPs encompass a bundle or set of HR practices including sophisticated staffing, intensive training and development, incentive-based compensation, performance management, initiatives aimed at increasing employee participation and involvement, job safety and security, and work design (e.g. Pfeffer, 1998). It is argued that these practices either directly and indirectly influence the extent to which employees’ knowledge, skills, abilities, and other characteristics are utilized in the organization. Research spanning nearly 20 years has provided considerable empirical evidence for relationships between HPWPs and various measures of performance including increased productivity, improved customer service, and reduced turnover (e.g. Guthrie, 2001; Belt & Giles, 2009). With the exception of a few papers (e.g., Laursen &Foss, 2003), this literature appears to lack focus on how HPWPs influence or foster more innovative-related attitudes and behaviours, extra role behaviors, and performance. This situation exists despite the vast evidence demonstrating the importance of innovation, proactivity, and creativity in its various forms to individual, group, and organizational performance outcomes. Several pertinent issues arise when considering HPWPs and their relationship to innovation and performance outcomes. At a broad level is the issue of which HPWPs are related to which innovation-related variables. Another issue not well identified in research relates to employees’ perceptions of HPWPs: does an employee actually perceive the HPWP –outcomes relationship? No matter how well HPWPs are designed, if they are not perceived and experienced by employees to be effective or worthwhile then their likely success in achieving positive outcomes is limited. At another level, research needs to consider the mechanisms through which HPWPs influence –innovation and performance. The research question here relates to what possible mediating variables are important to the success or failure of HPWPs in impacting innovative behaviours and attitudes and what are the potential process considerations? These questions call for theory refinement and the development of more comprehensive models of the HPWP-innovation/performance relationship that include intermediate linkages and boundary conditions (Ferris, Hochwarter, Buckley, Harrell-Cook, & Frink, 1999). While there are many calls for this type of research to be made a high priority, to date, researchers have made few inroads into answering these questions. This symposium brings together researchers from Australia, Europe, Asia and Africa to examine these various questions relating to the HPWP-innovation-performance relationship. Each paper discusses a HPWP and potential variables that can facilitate or hinder the effects of these practices on innovation- and performance- related outcomes. The first paper by Johnston and Becker explores the HPWPs in relation to work design in a disaster response organization that shifts quickly from business as usual to rapid response. The researchers examine how the enactment of the organizational response is devolved to groups and individuals. Moreover, they assess motivational characteristics that exist in dual work designs (normal operations and periods of disaster activation) and the implications for innovation. The second paper by Jørgensen reports the results of an investigation into training and development practices and innovative work behaviors (IWBs) in Danish organizations. Research on how to design and implement training and development initiatives to support IWBs and innovation in general is surprisingly scant and often vague. This research investigates the mechanisms by which training and development initiatives influence employee behaviors associated with innovation, and provides insights into how training and development can be used effectively by firms to attract and retain valuable human capital in knowledge-intensive firms. The next two papers in this symposium consider the role of employee perceptions of HPWPs and their relationships to innovation-related variables and performance. First, Bish and Newton examine perceptions of the characteristics and awareness of occupational health and safety (OHS) practices and their relationship to individual level adaptability and proactivity in an Australian public service organization. The authors explore the role of perceived supportive and visionary leadership and its impact on the OHS policy-adaptability/proactivity relationship. The study highlights the positive main effects of awareness and characteristics of OHS polices, and supportive and visionary leadership on individual adaptability and proactivity. It also highlights the important moderating effects of leadership in the OHS policy-adaptability/proactivity relationship. Okhawere and Davis present a conceptual model developed for a Nigerian study in the safety-critical oil and gas industry that takes a multi-level approach to the HPWP-safety relationship. Adopting a social exchange perspective, they propose that at the organizational level, organizational climate for safety mediates the relationship between enacted HPWS’s and organizational safety performance (prescribed and extra role performance). At the individual level, the experience of HPWP impacts on individual behaviors and attitudes in organizations, here operationalized as safety knowledge, skills and motivation, and these influence individual safety performance. However these latter relationships are moderated by organizational climate for safety. A positive organizational climate for safety strengthens the relationship between individual safety behaviors and attitudes and individual-level safety performance, therefore suggesting a cross-level boundary condition. The model includes both safety performance (behaviors) and organizational level safety outcomes, operationalized as accidents, injuries, and fatalities. The final paper of this symposium by Zhang and Liu explores leader development and relationship between transformational leadership and employee creativity and innovation in China. The authors further develop a model that incorporates the effects of extrinsic motivation (pay for performance: PFP) and employee collectivism in the leader-employee creativity relationship. The papers’ contributions include the incorporation of a PFP effect on creativity as moderator, rather than predictor in most studies; the exploration of the PFP effect from both fairness and strength perspectives; the advancement of knowledge on the impact of collectivism on the leader- employee creativity link. Last, this is the first study to examine three-way interactional effects among leader-member exchange (LMX), PFP and collectivism, thus, enriches our understanding of promoting employee creativity. In conclusion, this symposium draws upon the findings of four empirical studies and one conceptual study to provide an insight into understanding how different variables facilitate or potentially hinder the influence various HPWPs on innovation and performance. We will propose a number of questions for further consideration and discussion. The symposium will address the Conference Theme of ‘Capitalism in Question' by highlighting how HPWPs can promote financial health and performance of organizations while maintaining a high level of regard and respect for employees and organizational stakeholders. Furthermore, the focus on different countries and cultures explores the overall research question in relation to different modes or stages of development of capitalism.

Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége = Empirical models of exchange rate target zones

A sávosan rögzített devizaárfolyamok elméleti és gyakorlati vizsgálatai a nemzetközi közgazdaságtan egyik legnépszerűbb témaköre volt a kilencvenes évek elején. A gyakorlati módszerek közül az alkalmazások és hivatkozások száma tekintetében az úgynevezett eltolódással igazítás módszere emelkedett ki. A módszert alkalmazó szerzők szerint amíg a lebegő árfolyamú devizák előrejelzése céltalan feladatnak tűnik, addig sávos árfolyam esetén az árfolyam sávon belüli helyzetének előrejelzése sikeresen végezhető. E tanulmány bemutatja, hogy az Európai Monetáris Rendszer és az északeurópai államok sávos árfolyamrendszereinél e módszer alkalmazásával adódott eredmények például a lebegő árfolyamú amerikai dollárra és az egységgyökfolyamatok többségére is érvényesek. A tanulmány feltárja e látszólagos ellentmondás okait, és bemutat egy olyan, a sávos árfolyamrendszerek főbb megfigyelt jellemzőire épülő modellt, amelynek keretei között a sávon belüli árfolyam előrejelzése nem feltétlenül lehetséges, mert a leértékelés előtti időszakban a sávon belüli árfolyam alakulása kaotikus lehet. / === / Following the development of the first exchange rate target zone model at the end of the eighties dozens of papers analyzed theoretical and empirical topics of currency bands. This paper reviews different empirical methods to analyze the credibility of the band and lays special emphasis on the most widely used method, the so-called drift-adjustment method. Papers applying that method claim that while forecasting a freely floating currency is hopeless, predicting an exchange rate within the future band is successful. This paper shows that the results achieved by applications to EMS and Nordic currencies are not specific to data of target zone currencies. For example, application to US dollar and even to most unit root processes leads qualitatively to the same. This paper explores the solutions of this puzzle and shows a model of target zones in which the exchange rate within the band is not necessarily predictable since the process might follow chaotic dynamics before devaluation.

Az extrém ármozgások statisztikai jellemzői a magyar áramtőzsdén (The statistical characteristics of extreme price movements in the Hungarian power exchange)

2010. július 20-án megkezdte működését a magyar áramtőzsde, a HUPX. 2010. augusztus 16-án az első napokban tapasztalt 45-60 euró megawattórás ár helyett egyes órákban 2999 eurós árral szembesültek a piaci szereplők. A kiemelkedően magas árak megjelenése nem szokatlan az áramtőzsdéken a nemzetközi tapasztalatok szerint, sőt a kutatások kiemelten foglalkoznak az ún. ártüskék okainak felkutatásával, valamint megjelenésük kvantitatív és kvalitatív elemzésével. A cikkben a szerző bemutatja, milyen eredmények születtek a kiugró árak statisztikai vizsgálatai során a szakirodalomban, illetve azok következtetései hogyan állják meg a helyüket a magyar árak idősorát figyelembe véve. A szerző bemutat egy modellkeretet, amely a villamosenergia-árak viselkedését a hét órái szerint periodikusan váltakozó paraméterű eloszlásokkal írja le. A magyar áramtőzsde rövid története sajnos nem teszi lehetővé, hogy a hét minden órájára külön áreloszlást illeszthessünk. A szerző ezért a hét óráit két csoportba sorolja az ár eloszlásának jellege alapján: az ártüskék megjelenése szempontjából kockázatos és kevésbé kockázatos órákba. Ezután a HUPX-árak leírására felépít egy determinisztikus, kétállapotú rezsimváltó modellt, amellyel azonosítani lehet a kockázatos és kevésbé kockázatos órákat, valamint képet kaphatunk az extrém ármozgások jellegéről. / === / On 20th July, 2010 the Hungarian Power Exchange, the HUPX started its operation. On 16th August in certain hours the markets participants faced € 2,999 price instead of in the first days experienced 45-60 euros/mwh. According to the international experiences the appearance of the extremely high prices hasn’t been unusual in the power exchanges, the researches have focused exploring the causes of the so-called spikes and quantitative and qualitative analysis of those appearances. In this article the author describes what results were determined on statistical studies of outstanding prices in the literature, and how their conclusions stand up into account the time series of the Hungarian prices. The author presents a model framework which describes the behavior of electricity prices in the seven hours of periodically varying parameters. Unfortunately the brief history of the Hungarian Power Exchange does not allow to suit specific prices for each hour of week. Therefore the author classifies the hours of the week in the two groups based on the nature of price dispersion: according to the appearance of spikes to risky and less risky classes. Then for describing the HUPX prices the author builds a deterministic two-state, regime-changing model, which can be identified the risky and less risky hours, and to get a picture of the nature of extreme price movements.

Szimulációk és érzékenységvizsgálatok a magyar gazdaság egy középméretű makromodelljével = Simulations and sensitivity analyses with a medium-sized macro model of the Hungarian economy

A tanulmányban a Pénzügyminisztérium gazdaságpolitikai főosztálya és az MTA Közgazdaságtudományi Intézete által kifejlesztett középméretű negyedéves makrogazdasági modell segítségével elemezzük a magyar gazdaság legfontosabb mechanizmusait. A modellezés során követett alapelvek és a modell blokkjainak bemutatása után egy forgatókönyv-elemzés keretében vizsgáljuk a makrogazdasági és költségvetési folyamatokat befolyásoló főbb faktorok hatásait. A - tágan értelmezett - "bizonytalansági tényezőket" három csoportba soroljuk: megkülönböztetjük a külső környezet (például árfolyam) változását, a gazdasági szereplők viselkedésében rejlő bizonytalanságokat (például a bérigazodás sebességének vagy a fogyasztássimítás mértékének bizonytalanságát), valamint a gazdaságpolitikai lépéseket (például állami bérek emelését). Megmutatjuk, hogy e kockázatok makrokövetkezményei nem függetlenek egymástól, például egy árfolyamváltozás hatását befolyásolja a bérigazodás sebessége. ______ This paper analyses the most important mechanisms of the Hungarian economy using a medium-sized quarterly macroeconomic model developed jointly by the Economic Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance and the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. After introducing the fundamental principles of modelling and the building blocks of the model investigated, within a scenario analysis, the authors present the effects of the main factors behind the macroeconomic and budgetary processes. The sources of uncertainty - defined in a broad sense - are categorized in three groups: change in the external environment (e.g. the exchange rate), uncertainties in the behav-iour of economic agents (e.g. in speed of wage adjustment or extent of consumption smoothing), and economic policy decisions (e.g. the increase in public sector wages). The macroeconomic consequences of these uncertainties are shown not to be independent of each other. For instance, the effects of an exchange rate shock are influenced by the speed of wage adjustment.

A tranzakciós költségek elmélete és a társadalmi csereelmélet hatásai a bizalomra az ellátási láncban (Affects of Transaction cost and Social Exchange Constructs on trust In supply chain relationship)

A szerzők alapvető feltételezése, hogy az ellátási láncban a bizalom ösztönzi a felek közötti elkötelezettséget. Továbbá a bizalom növeli annak a lehetőségét, hogy az ellátási lánc sikeresen működjön. Ugyanakkor, a felek közötti bizalom hiánya gyakran megnöveli a tranzakciós költségeket, és így csökkenti a hatékonyságot. A cikkben bemutatott kutatás adatgyűjtésére több országban – Franciaországban, Magyarországon, Dél-Koreában, Tunéziában és az Egyesült Államokban – került sor. Összesen 729 érvényes kérdőív érkezett vissza, amelyeket a különböző ellátási láncok résztvevői töltöttek ki. A kutatási eredmények szerint az ellátási láncokon belüli üzleti kapcsolatokban a tranzakciós költségek elméletének összetevői (kapcsolatspecifikusság és viselkedési bizonytalanság), valamint a társadalmi csereelmélet tényezői (lecserélhetőség, észlelt megelégedettség, a partner hírneve és észlelt konfliktus) szoros kapcsolatban állnak a bizalom és az elkötelezettség változóival. _____ This article is based on the assumption that trust promotes commitment between partners in the supply chain and improves the chances of return on supply chain success. In contrast, a lack of trust between them often increases transaction costs and results in inefficiency. The results of this research, based on multi-country surveys with 729 returns from France, Hungary, Korea, Tunisia and the United States on supply chain professionals, reveals a strong affect of transaction cost constructs (TCC) (asset specificity and behavioral uncertainty) and social exchange constructs (SEC) (replaceability, perceived satisfaction, partner reputation, and perceived conflict) on trust-commitment variables in partnership based supply chain relationships. This paper employed a structural equation model to extract information from the survey data. Among the findings, the research indicates that a firm’s trustcommitment in dealing with their supply chain partnership is highly associated with not only transaction cost, but more so with social exchange variables. This study may open a new research avenue in that there is another construct, SEC, beside TSC that influences the degree of trust and commitment.

A bizalmat befolyásoló tényezők vizsgálata az üzleti kapcsolatokban (Affects of Transaction cost and Social Exchange Constructs on trust In supply chain relationship)

Az üzleti célú kapcsolatok vizsgálatakor legtöbbször felmerül a bizalom fogalma is, amellyel először a szociálpszichológia és a szociológia foglalkozott. A szerző cikkében azzal foglalkozik, hogy milyen tényezők befolyásolják a bizalmat az üzleti kapcsolatokban. Ezért magyarországi szervezeteket (elsősorban üzleti vállalkozásokat) kérdezett meg kvantitatív módszer alkalmazásával. Ez az empirikus kutatás igyekszik a bizalom lehető legtöbb tényezőit összegyűjteni, ahol a kérdőívben a válaszolók egyik létező – vevői vagy beszállítói – kapcsolatukra gondolva válaszoltak a bizalmon túl a partner hírnevére, az észlelt elégedettségre és konfliktusra, az információcserére, a lecserélhetőségre, valamint a kapcsolatspecifikus beruházásokra vonatkozóan. Az eredmények azt mutatják, hogy egyik változó sem jelent kizárólagos befolyásoló erőt, hanem közösen alakítják ki a bizalom adott szintjét. _______ This article is based on the assumption that trust promotes commitment between partners in the supply chain and improves the chances of return on supply chain success. In contrast, a lack of trust between them often increases transaction costs and results in inefficiency. The results of this research, based on multi-country surveys with 729 returns from France, Hungary, Korea, Tunisia and the United States on supply chain professionals, reveals a strong affect of transaction cost constructs (TCC) (asset specificity and behavioral uncertainty) and social exchange constructs (SEC) (replaceability, perceived satisfaction, partner reputation, and perceived conflict) on trust-commitment variables in partnership based supply chain relationships. This paper employed a structural equation model to extract information from the survey data. Among the findings, the research indicates that a firm’s trustcommitment in dealing with their supply chain partnership is highly associated with not only transaction cost, but more so with social exchange variables. This study may open a new research avenue in that there is another construct, SEC, beside TSC that influences the degree of trust and commitment.