Path Dependence in Decision-Making Processes: Exploring the Impact of Complexity under Increasing Returns

The development of path-dependent processes basically refers to positive feedback in terms of increasing returns as the main driving forces of such processes. Furthermore, path dependence can be affected by context factors, such as different degrees of complexity. Up to now, it has been unclear whether and how different settings of complexity impact path-dependent processes and the probability of lock-in. In this paper we investigate the relationship between environmental complexity and path dependence by means of an experimental study. By focusing on the mode of information load and decision quality in chronological sequences, the study explores the impact of complexity on decision-making processes. The results contribute to both the development of path-dependence theory and a better understanding of decision-making behavior under conditions of positive feedback. Since previous path research has mostly applied qualitative case-study research and (to a minor part) simulations, this paper makes a further contribution by establishing an experimental approach for research on path dependence.

Single-dose piracetam effects on global complexity measures of human spontaneous multichannel EEG

Global complexity of 47-channel resting electroencephalogram (EEG) of healthy young volunteers was studied after intake of a single dose of a nootropic drug (piracetam, Nootropil® UCB Pharma) in 12 healthy volunteers. Four treatment levels were used: 2.4, 4.8, 9.6 g piracetam and placebo. Brain electric activity was assessed through Global Dimensional Complexity and Global Omega-Complexity as quantitative measures of the complexity of the trajectory of multichannel EEG in state space. After oral ingestion (1–1.5 h), both measures showed significant decreases from placebo to 2.4 g piracetam. In addition, Global Dimensional Complexity showed a significant return to placebo values at 9.6 g piracetam. The results indicate that a single dose of piracetam dose-dependently affects the spontaneous EEG in normal volunteers, showing effects at the lowest treatment level. The decreased EEG complexity is interpreted as increased cooperativity of brain functional processes.

EEG microstate duration and syntax in acute, medication-naive, first-episode schizophrenia: a multi-center study

In young, first-episode, productive, medication-naive patients with schizophrenia, EEG microstates (building blocks of mentation) tend to be shortened. Koenig et al. [Koenig, T., Lehmann, D., Merlo, M., Kochi, K., Hell, D., Koukkou, M., 1999. A deviant EEG brain microstate in acute, neuroleptic-naïve schizophrenics at rest. European Archives of Psychiatry and Clinical Neuroscience 249, 205–211] suggested that shortening concerned specific microstate classes. Sequence rules (microstate concatenations, syntax) conceivably might also be affected. In 27 patients of the above type and 27 controls, from three centers, multichannel resting EEG was analyzed into microstates using k-means clustering of momentary potential topographies into four microstate classes (A–D). In patients, microstates were shortened in classes B and D (from 80 to 70 ms and from 94 to 82 ms, respectively), occurred more frequently in classes A and C, and covered more time in A and less in B. Topography differed only in class B where LORETA tomography predominantly showed stronger left and anterior activity in patients. Microstate concatenation (syntax) generally were disturbed in patients; specifically, the class sequence A→C→D→A predominated in controls, but was reversed in patients (A→D→C→A). In schizophrenia, information processing in certain classes of mental operations might deviate because of precocious termination. The intermittent occurrence might account for Bleuler's “double bookkeeping.” The disturbed microstate syntax opens a novel physiological comparison of mental operations between patients and controls.

Brain electric correlates of strong belief in paranormal phenomena: intracerebral EEG source and regional Omega complexity analyses

The neurocognitive processes underlying the formation and maintenance of paranormal beliefs are important for understanding schizotypal ideation. Behavioral studies indicated that both schizotypal and paranormal ideation are based on an overreliance on the right hemisphere, whose coarse rather than focussed semantic processing may favor the emergence of 'loose' and 'uncommon' associations. To elucidate the electrophysiological basis of these behavioral observations, 35-channel resting EEG was recorded in pre-screened female strong believers and disbelievers during resting baseline. EEG data were subjected to FFT-Dipole-Approximation analysis, a reference-free frequency-domain dipole source modeling, and Regional (hemispheric) Omega Complexity analysis, a linear approach estimating the complexity of the trajectories of momentary EEG map series in state space. Compared to disbelievers, believers showed: more right-located sources of the beta2 band (18.5-21 Hz, excitatory activity); reduced interhemispheric differences in Omega complexity values; higher scores on the Magical Ideation scale; more general negative affect; and more hypnagogic-like reveries after a 4-min eyes-closed resting period. Thus, subjects differing in their declared paranormal belief displayed different active, cerebral neural populations during resting, task-free conditions. As hypothesized, believers showed relatively higher right hemispheric activation and reduced hemispheric asymmetry of functional complexity. These markers may constitute the neurophysiological basis for paranormal and schizotypal ideation.

Global, regional, and local measures of complexity of multichannel electroencephalography in acute, neuroleptic-naive, first-break schizophrenics

Background: Schizophrenic symptoms commonly are felt to indicate a loosened coordination, i.e. a decreased connectivity of brain processes. Methods: To address this hypothesis directly, global and regional multichannel electroencephalographic (EEG) complexities (omega complexity and dimensional complexity) and single channel EEG dimensional complexities were calculated from 19-channel EEG data from 9 neuroleptic-naive, first-break, acute schizophrenics and 9 age- and sex-matched controls. Twenty artifact-free 2 second EEG epochs during resting with closed eyes were analyzed (2–30 Hz bandpass, average reference for global and regional complexities, local EEG gradient time series for single channels). Results: Anterior regional Omega-Complexity was significantly increased in schizophrenics compared with controls (p < 0.001) and anterior regional Dimensional Complexity showed a trend for increase. Single channel Dimensional Complexity of local gradient waveshapes was prominently increased in the schizophrenics at the right precentral location (p = 0.003). Conclusions: The results indicate a loosened cooperativity or coordination (vice versa: an increased independence) of the active brain processes in the anterior brain regions of the schizophrenics.

Chewing-gum flavor affects measures of global complexity of multichannel EEG

Global complexity of spontaneous brain electric activity was studied before and after chewing gum without flavor and with 2 different flavors. One-minute, 19-channel, eyes-closed electroencephalograms (EEG) were recorded from 20 healthy males before and after using 3 types of chewing gum: regular gum containing sugar and aromatic additives, gum containing 200 mg theanine (a constituent of Japanese green tea), and gum base (no sugar, no aromatic additives); each was chewed for 5 min in randomized sequence. Brain electric activity was assessed through Global Omega (Ω)-Complexity and Global Dimensional Complexity (GDC), quantitative measures of complexity of the trajectory of EEG map series in state space; their differences from pre-chewing data were compared across gum-chewing conditions. Friedman Anova (p < 0.043) showed that effects on Ω-Complexity differed significantly between conditions and differences were maximal between gum base and theanine gum. No differences were found using GDC. Global Omega-Complexity appears to be a sensitive measure for subtle, central effects of chewing gum with and without flavor.

Effects of task modality, length and complexity on time for activities in lucid dreams

Introduction: Nocturnal dreams can be considered as a kind of simulation of the real world on a higher cognitive level (Erlacher & Schredl, 2008). Within lucid dreams, the dreamer is aware of the dream state and thus able to control the ongoing dream content. Previous studies could demonstrate that it is possible to practice motor tasks during lucid dreams and doing so improved performance while awake (Erlacher & Schredl, 2010). Even though lucid dream practice might be a promising kind of cognitive rehearsal in sports, little is known about the characteristics of actions in lucid dreams. The purpose of the present study was to explore the relationship between time in dreams and wakefulness because in an earlier study (Erlacher & Schredl, 2004) we found that performing squads took lucid dreamers 44.5 % more time than in the waking state while for counting the same participants showed no differences between dreaming and wakefulness. To find out if the task modality, the task length or the task complexity require longer times in lucid dreams than in wakefulness three experiments were conducted. Methods: In the first experiment five proficient lucid dreamers spent two to three non-consecutive nights in the sleep laboratory with polysomnographic recording to control for REM sleep and determine eye signals. Participants counted from 1-10, 1-20 and 1-30 in wakefulness and in their lucid dreams. While dreaming they marked onset of lucidity as well as beginning and end of the counting task with a Left-Right-Left-Right eye movement and reported their dreams after being awakened. The same procedure was used for the second experiment with seven lucid dreamers except that they had to walk 10, 20 or 30 steps. In the third experiment nine participants performed an exercise involving gymnastics elements such as various jumps and a roll. To control for length of the task the gymnastic exercise in the waking state lasted about the same time as walking 10 steps. Results: As a general result we found – as in the study before – that performing a task in the lucid dream requires more time than in wakefulness. This tendency was found for all three tasks. However, there was no difference for the task modality (counting vs. motor task). Also the relative time for the different lengths of the tasks showed no difference. And finally, the more complex motor task (gymnastic routine) did not require more time in lucid dreams than the simple motor task. Discussion/Conclusion: The results showed that there is a robust effect of time in lucid dreams compared to wakefulness. The three experiments could not explain that those differences are caused by task modality, task length or task complexity. Therefore further possible candidates needs to be investigated e.g. experience in lucid dreaming or psychological variables. References: Erlacher, D. & Schredl, M. (2010). Practicing a motor task in a lucid dream enhances subsequent performance: A pilot study. The Sport Psychologist, 24(2), 157-167. Erlacher, D. & Schredl, M. (2008). Do REM (lucid) dreamed and executed actions share the same neural substrate? International Journal of Dream Research, 1(1), 7-13. Erlacher, D. & Schredl, M. (2004). Time required for motor activity in lucid dreams. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 99, 1239-1242.

Disparities in bone density measurement history and osteoporosis medication utilisation in Swiss women: results from the Swiss Health Survey 2007

BACKGROUND Although factors associated with the utilisation of bone density measurement (BDM) and osteoporosis treatment have been regularly assessed in the US and Canada, they have not been effectively analysed in European countries. This study assessed factors associated with the utilisation of BDM and osteoporosis medication (OM) in Switzerland. METHODS The Swiss Health Survey 2007 data included self-reported information on BDM and OM for women aged 40 years and older who were living in private households. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify sociodemographic, socioeconomic, healthcare-related and osteoporosis risk factors associated with BDM and OM utilisation. RESULTS The lifetime prevalence of BDM was 25.6% (95% CI: 24.3-26.9%) for women aged 40 years and older. BDM utilisation was associated with most sociodemographic factors, all the socioeconomic and healthcare-related factors, and with major osteoporosis risk factors analysed. The prevalence of current OM was 7.8% (95% CI: 7.0-8.6%) and it was associated with some sociodemographic and most healthcare-related factors but only with one socioeconomic factor. CONCLUSIONS In Swiss women, ever having had a BDM and current OM were low and utilisation disparities exist according to sociodemographic, socioeconomic and healthcare-related factors. This might foster further health inequalities. The reasons for these findings should be addressed in further studies of the elderly women, including those living in institutions.

Specific and Nonspecific Psychological Interventions for PTSD Symptoms: A Meta-Analysis With Problem Complexity as a Moderator

CONTEXT The necessity of specific intervention components for the successful treatment of patients with posttraumatic stress disorder is the subject of controversy. OBJECTIVE To investigate the complexity of clinical problems as a moderator of relative effects between specific and nonspecific psychological interventions. METHODS We included 18 randomized controlled trials, directly comparing specific and nonspecific psychological interventions. We conducted moderator analyses, including the complexity of clinical problems as predictor. RESULTS Our results have confirmed the moderate superiority of specific over nonspecific psychological interventions; however, the superiority was small in studies with complex clinical problems and large in studies with noncomplex clinical problems. CONCLUSIONS For patients with complex clinical problems, our results suggest that particular nonspecific psychological interventions may be offered as an alternative to specific psychological interventions. In contrast, for patients with noncomplex clinical problems, specific psychological interventions are the best treatment option.

Type D Personality, Self-Efficacy, and Medication Adherence Following an Acute Coronary Syndrome

Objective: To assess the relationship among Type D personality, self-efficacy, and medication adherence in patients with coronary heart disease. Methods: The study design was prospective and observational. Type D personality, self-efficacy for illness management behaviors, and medication adherence were measured 3 weeks after hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome in 165 patients (mean [standard deviation] age = 61.62 [10.61] years, 16% women). Self-reported medication adherence was measured 6 months later in 118 of these patients. Multiple linear regression and mediation analyses were used to address the study research questions. Results: Using the original categorical classification, 30% of patients with acute coronary syndrome were classified as having Type D personality. Categorically defined patients with Type D personality had significantly poorer medication adherence at 6 months (r = j0.29, p G .01). Negative affectivity (NA; r = j0.25, p = .01) and social inhibition (r = j0.19, p = .04), the components of Type D personality, were associated with medication adherence 6 months after discharge in bivariate analyses. There was no evidence for the interaction of NA and social inhibition, that is, Type D personality, in the prediction of medication adherence 6 months after discharge in multivariate analysis. The observed association between NA and medication adherence 6 months after discharge could be partly explained by indirect effects through self-efficacy in mediation analysis (coefficient = j0.012; 95% bias-corrected and accelerated confidence interval = j0.036 to j0.001). Conclusions: The present data suggest the primacy of NA over the Type D personality construct in predicting medication adherence. Lower levels of self-efficacy may be a mediator between higher levels of NA and poor adherence to medication in patients with coronary heart disease.

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Evolution of sensory complexity recorded in a myxobacterial genome.

Myxobacteria are single-celled, but social, eubacterial predators. Upon starvation they build multicellular fruiting bodies using a developmental program that progressively changes the pattern of cell movement and the repertoire of genes expressed. Development terminates with spore differentiation and is coordinated by both diffusible and cell-bound signals. The growth and development of Myxococcus xanthus is regulated by the integration of multiple signals from outside the cells with physiological signals from within. A collection of M. xanthus cells behaves, in many respects, like a multicellular organism. For these reasons M. xanthus offers unparalleled access to a regulatory network that controls development and that organizes cell movement on surfaces. The genome of M. xanthus is large (9.14 Mb), considerably larger than the other sequenced delta-proteobacteria. We suggest that gene duplication and divergence were major contributors to genomic expansion from its progenitor. More than 1,500 duplications specific to the myxobacterial lineage were identified, representing >15% of the total genes. Genes were not duplicated at random; rather, genes for cell-cell signaling, small molecule sensing, and integrative transcription control were amplified selectively. Families of genes encoding the production of secondary metabolites are overrepresented in the genome but may have been received by horizontal gene transfer and are likely to be important for predation.