Did Impending War in Europe Help Destroy the Gold Bloc in 1936? An Internal Inconsistency Hypothesis

This paper investigates the gold bloc operated between France, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium, especially over the period after the USA left the gold standard in March 1933 to its end in September 1936. It enquires into the effect of military-political developments in Germany and Italy on the sustainability of the gold bloc between its members. Juxtaposed is the view of leading political scientists, such as Henry Kissinger, who see impending war in Europe as deeply and adversely affecting psychology in Europe, and what may be called the standard "economists' view" that sees the demise of the gold bloc as being caused almost exclusively by economic factors. Developing concepts of external and internal inconsistency of the gold bloc, this investigation concludes that both economic and military-political developments played important roles in destroying the last vestiges of the gold standard.

US Corporate Default Swap Valuation: The Market Liquidity Hypothesis and Autonomous Credit Risk

This paper develops a reduced form three-factor model which includes a liquidity proxy of market conditions which is then used to provide implicit prices. The model prices are then compared with observed market prices of credit default swaps to determine if swap rates adequately reflect market risks. The findings of the analysis illustrate the importance of liquidity in the valuation process. Moreover, market liquidity, a measure of investors. willingness to commit resources in the credit default swap (CDS) market, was also found to improve the valuation of investors. autonomous credit risk. Thus a failure to include a liquidity proxy could underestimate the implied autonomous credit risk. Autonomous credit risk is defined as the fractional credit risk which does not vary with changes in market risk and liquidity conditions.

Quantile Inferences for Inflation and Its Variability: Does a Threshold Inflation Rate Exist?

Using quantile regressions and cross-sectional data from 152 countries, we examine the relationship between inflation and its variability. We consider two measures of inflation - the mean and median - and three different measures of inflation variability - the standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and median deviation. Using the mean and standard deviation or the median and the median deviation, the results support both the hypothesis that higher inflation creates more inflation variability and that inflation variability raises inflation across quantiles. Moreover, higher quantiles in both cases lead to larger marginal effects of inflation (inflation variability) on inflation variability (inflation). Using the mean and the coefficient of variation, however, the findings largely support no correlation between inflation and its variability. Finally, we also consider whether thresholds for inflation rate or inflation variability exist before finding such positive correlations. We find evidence of thresholds for inflation rates below 3 percent, but mixed results for thresholds for inflation variability.

Mean corpuscular volume as a marker for adherence to antiretroviral therapy among HIV infected children and adolescents in Uganda

Mean corpuscular volume, which is an inexpensive and widely available measure to assess, increases in HIV infected individuals receiving zidovudine and stavudine raising the hypothesis that it could be used as a surrogate for adherence.^ The aim of this study was to examine the association between mean corpuscular volume and adherence to antiretroviral therapy among HIV infected children and adolescents aged 0–19 years in Uganda as well as the extent to which changes in mean corpuscular volume predict adherence as determined by virologic suppression.^ The investigator retrospectively reviewed and analyzed secondary data of 158 HIV infected children and adolescents aged 0–19 years who initiated antiretroviral therapy under an observational cohort at the Baylor College of Medicine Children's Foundation - Uganda. Viral suppression was used as the gold standard for monitoring adherence and defined as viral load of < 400 copies/ml at 24 and 48 weeks. ^ Patients were at least 48 weeks on therapy, age 0.2–18.4 years, 54.4% female, 82.3% on zidovudine based regimen, 92% WHO stage III at initiation of therapy, median pre therapy MCV 80.6 fl (70.3–98.3 fl), median CD4% 10.2% (0.3%–28.0%), and mean pre therapy viral load 407,712.9 ± 270,413.9 copies/ml. For both 24 and 48 weeks of antiretroviral therapy, patients with viral suppression had a greater mean percentage change in mean corpuscular volume (15.1% ± 8.4 vs. 11.1% ± 7.8 and 2.3% ± 13.2 vs. -2.7% ± 10.5 respectively). The mean percentage change in mean corpuscular volume was greater in the first 24 weeks of therapy for patients with and without viral suppression (15.1% ± 8.4 vs. 2.3% ± 13.2 and 11.1% ± 7.8 vs. -2.7% ± 10.5 respectively). In the multivariate logistic regression model, percentage change in mean corpuscular volume ≥ 20% was significantly associated with viral suppression (adjusted OR 4.0; CI 1.2–13.3; p value 0.02). The ability of percentage changes in MCV to correctly identify children and adolescents with viral suppression was higher at a cut off of ≥ 20% (90.7%; sensitivity, 31.7%) than at ≥ 9% (82.9%; sensitivity, 78.9%). Negative predictive value was lower at ≥ 20% change (25%; specificity, 84.8%) than at ≥ 9% change (33.3%; specificity, 39.4%).^ Mean corpuscular volume is a useful marker of adherence among children and adolescents with viral suppression. ^

Prevalence and risk factors for polyomavirus reactivation in solid-organ transplantation

Background. Polyomavirus reactivation is common in solid-organ transplant recipients who are given immunosuppressive medications as standard treatment of care. Previous studies have shown that polyomavirus infection can lead to allograft failure in as many as 45% of the affected patients. Hypothesis. Ubiquitous polyomaviruses when reactivated by post-transplant immunosuppressive medications may lead to impaired renal function and possibly lower survival prospects. Study Overview. Secondary analysis of data was conducted on a prospective longitudinal study of subjects who were at least 18 years of age and were recipients of liver and/or kidney transplant at Mayo Clinic Scottsdale, Arizona. Methods. DNA extractions of blinded urine and blood specimens of transplant patients collected at Mayo Clinic during routine transplant patient visits were performed at Baylor College of Medicine using Qiagen kits. Virologic assays included testing DNA samples for specific polyomavirus sequences using QPCR technology. De-identified demographic and clinical patient data were merged with laboratory data and statistical analysis was performed using Stata10. Results. 76 patients enrolled in the study were followed for 3.9 years post transplantation. The prevalence of BK virus and JC virus urinary excretion was 30% and 28%. Significant association was observed between JC virus excretion and kidney as the transplanted organ (P = 0.039, Pearson Chi-square test). The median urinary JCV viral loads were two logs higher than those of BKV. Patients that excreted both BKV and JCV appeared to have the worst renal function with a mean creatinine clearance value of 71.6 millimeters per minute. A survival disadvantage was observed for dual shedders of BKV and JCV, log-rank statistics, p = 0.09; 2/5 dual-shedders expired during the study period. Liver transplant and male sex were determined to be potential risk factors for JC virus activation in renal and liver transplant recipients. All patients tested negative for SV40 and no association was observed between polyomavirus excretion and type of immunosuppressive medication (tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, cyclosporine and sirolimus). Conclusions. Polyomavirus reactivation was common after solid-organ transplantation and may be associated with impaired renal function. Male sex and JCV infection may be potential risk factors for viral reactivation; findings should be confirmed in larger studies.^

A comparison of worker risk of injury while working on fully automated side loaders and other residential collection trucks at a large solid waste collection company

The study aim was to determine whether using automated side loader (ASL) trucks in higher proportions compared to other types of trucks for residential waste collection results in lower injury rates (from all causes). The primary hypothesis was that the risk of injury to workers was lower for those who work with ASL trucks than for workers who work with other types of trucks used in residential waste collection. To test this hypothesis, data were collected from one of the nation’s largest companies in the solid waste management industry. Different local operating units (i.e. facilities) in the company used different types of trucks to varying degrees, which created a special opportunity to examine refuse collection injuries and illnesses and the risk reduction potential of ASL trucks.^ The study design was ecological and analyzed end-of-year data provided by the company for calendar year 2007. During 2007, there were a total of 345 facilities which provided residential services. Each facility represented one observation.^ The dependent variable – injury and illness rate, was defined as a facility’s total case incidence rate (TCIR) recorded in accordance with federal OSHA requirements for the year 2007. The TCIR is the rate of total recordable injury and illness cases per 100 full-time workers. The independent variable, percent of ASL trucks, was calculated by dividing the number of ASL trucks by the total number of residential trucks at each facility.^ Multiple linear regression models were estimated for the impact of the percent of ASL trucks on TCIR per facility. Adjusted analyses included three covariates: median number of hours worked per week for residential workers; median number of months of work experience for residential workers; and median age of residential workers. All analyses were performed with the statistical software, Stata IC (version 11.0).^ The analyses included three approaches to classifying exposure, percent of ASL trucks. The first approach included two levels of exposure: (1) 0% and (2) >0 - <100%. The second approach included three levels of exposure: (1) 0%, (2) ≥ 1 - < 100%, and (3) 100%. The third approach included six levels of exposure to improve detection of a dose-response relationship: (1) 0%, (2) 1 to <25%, (3) 25 to <50%, (4) 50 to <75%, (5) 75 to <100%, and (6) 100%. None of the relationships between injury and illness rate and percent ASL trucks exposure levels was statistically significant (i.e., p<0.05), even after adjustment for all three covariates.^ In summary, the present study shows that there is some risk reduction impact of ASL trucks but not statistically significant. The covariates demonstrated a varied yet more modest impact on the injury and illness rate but again, none of the relationships between injury and illness rate and the covariates were statistically significant (i.e., p<0.05). However, as an ecological study, the present study also has the limitations inherent in such designs and warrants replication in an individual level cohort design. Any stronger conclusions are not suggested.^

Mismatch Repair Deficient Tumors Lacking Known Sporadic Causes: Are They All Due to Lynch Syndrome?

BACKGROUND: Mismatch repair deficient (MMRD) colorectal (CRC) or endometrial (EC) cancers in the absence of MLH1 promoter hypermethylation and BRAF mutations are suggestive of Lynch syndrome (LS). Positive germline genetic test results confirm LS. It is unclear if individuals with MMRD tumors but no identified germline mutation or sporadic cause (MMRD+/germline-) have LS. HYPOTHESIS: Since LS is hereditary, individuals with LS should have a stronger family history of LS-related cancers than individuals with sporadic tumors. We hypothesized that MMRD+/germline- CRC and/or EC patients would have less suggestive family histories than LS CRC and/or EC patients. METHODS: 253 individuals with an MMRD CRC or EC who underwent genetic counseling at one institution were included in analysis in 1 of 4 groups: LS, MMRD+/germline-, MMRD+/VUS, sporadic MSI-H (MMRD tumor with MLH1 promoter hypermethylation or BRAF mutation). Family histories were analyzed utilizing MMRpro and PREMM1,2,6. Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to compare family history scores. Logistic regression was used to determine what factors were predictive of LS. RESULTS: MMRD+/germline- individuals had significantly lower median family history scores (PREMM1,2,6=7.3, MMRpro=8.1) than LS individuals (PREMM1,2,6=26.1, MMRpro=89.8, p CONCLUSION: MMRD+/germline- individuals have less suggestive family histories of LS than individuals with LS, but more suggestive family histories than sporadic MSI-H individuals. CRC and/or EC patients with abnormal tumor studies are more likely to have a germline LS mutation if they have a family history suggestive of hereditary cancer. These results imply that the MMRD+/germline- group may not all have LS. This finding highlights the need to determine other somatic, epigenetic or germline causes of MMRD tumors so that these patients and their families can be accurately counseled regarding screening and management.

Organic geochemistry of sediments from North Alex Mud Vulcano

Hydrocarbon seeps are ubiquitous at gas-prone Cenozoic deltas such as the Nile Deep Sea Fan (NDSF) where seepage into the bottom water has been observed at several mud volcanoes (MVs) including North Alex MV (NAMV). Here we investigated the sources of hydrocarbon gases and sedimentary organic matter together with biomarkers of microbial activity at four locations of NAMV to constrain how venting at the seafloor relates to the generation of hydrocarbon gases in deeper sediments. At the centre, high upward flux of hot (70 °C) hydrocarbon-rich fluids is indicated by an absence of biomarkers of Anaerobic Oxidation of Methane (AOM) and nearly constant methane (CH4) concentration depth-profile. The presence of lipids of incompatible thermal maturities points to mixing between early-mature petroleum and immature organic matter, indicating that shallow mud has been mobilized by the influx of deep-sourced hydrocarbon-rich fluids. Methane is enriched in the heavier isotopes, with values of d13C ~-46.6 per mil VPDB and dD ~-228 per mil VSMOW, and is associated with high amounts of heavier homologues (C2+) suggesting a co-genetic origin with the petroleum. On the contrary at the periphery, a lower but sustained CH4 flux is indicated by deeper sulphate-methane transition zones and the presence of 13C-depleted biomarkers of AOM, consistent with predominantly immature organic matter. Values of d13C-CH4 ~-60 per mil VPDB and decreased concentrations of 13C-enriched C2+ are typical of mixed microbial CH4 and biodegraded thermogenic gas from Plio-Pleistocene reservoirs of the region. The maturity of gas condensate migrated from pre-Miocene sources into Miocene reservoirs of the Western NDSF is higher than that of the gas vented at the centre of NAMV, supporting the hypothesis that it is rather released from the degradation of oil in Neogene reservoirs. Combined with the finding of hot pore water and petroleum at the centre, our results suggest that clay mineral dehydration of Neogene sediments, which takes place posterior to reservoir filling, may contribute to intense gas generation at high sedimentation rate deltas.

Age models, color measurements, and calculated sea surface temperatures of sediment cores from the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk

Past changes in North Pacific sea surface temperatures and sea-ice conditions are proposed to play a crucial role in deglacial climate development and ocean circulation but are less well known than from the North Atlantic. Here, we present new alkenone-based sea surface temperature records from the subarctic northwest Pacific and its marginal seas (Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk) for the time interval of the last 15 kyr, indicating millennial-scale sea surface temperature fluctuations similar to short-term deglacial climate oscillations known from Greenland ice-core records. Past changes in sea-ice distribution are derived from relative percentage of specific diatom groups and qualitative assessment of the IP25 biomarker related to sea-ice diatoms. The deglacial variability in sea-ice extent matches the sea surface temperature fluctuations. These fluctuations suggest a linkage to deglacial variations in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and a close atmospheric coupling between the North Pacific and North Atlantic. During the Holocene the subarctic North Pacific is marked by complex sea surface temperature trends, which do not support the hypothesis of a Holocene seesaw in temperature development between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific.

Counts of benthos communities in Kongsfjorden in 2009

In order to reveal the structure of the sparsely known deeper sublittoral hard bottom communities of glacial Kongsfjorden, the macroepibenthos from six depth zones (30-200 m) was analysed. A total of 180 still images derived from 6-h video recorded at the Kongsfjordneset remotely operated vehicle station were assessed quantitatively. Overall 27 mainly suspension-feeding species/taxa were observed. Of these, two-thirds have an arcto-boreal distribution, while the remainder are cosmopolitan. The overall mean epibenthos abundance was 33 ind./m**2 with maximum values at 150 m depth (97.9 ind./m**2). The majority of the taxa inhabited the entire depth range. Encrusting red algae, an unidentified sponge and the sea anemone Urticina eques, characterized the assemblage of the shallow zone. The sea anemones Hormathia spp. were important below 30 m, the Serpulid polychaete Protula tubularia was characteristic for the community below 50 m and the demosponge Haliclona sp. was a key taxon between 100 and 200 m depth. Cluster analysis and non-metrical multidimensional scaling based on abundance data showed differences between the assemblages along the bathymetric gradient, but only in the shallower depths in relation to the substratum surface incline. As surface and tidal current impacts attenuate with increasing depth, there is a gradual trend from robust key species towards more fragile ones (i.e. P. tubularia), in line with the 'Physical control hypothesis'.

(Table 1) Chemical and isotopic analyses of Rajmahal Traps and Ninetyeast Ridge volcanics

The hypothesis that hotspots are the sources of many continental flood basalts is evaluated geochemically for the proposed Rajmahal Traps-Ninetyeast Ridge-Kerguelen hotspot system. It appears that the Kerguelen hotspot did not directly feed Rajmahal magmas, although it may have provided a source of heat for Rajmahal activity.

Geochemistry and oxygen and iron isotope ratios of mafic rocks

Recycling of oceanic crust into the deep mantle via subduction is a widely accepted mechanism for creating compositional heterogeneity in the upper mantle and for explaining the distinct geochemistry of mantle plumes. The oxygen isotope ratios (d18O) of some ocean island basalts (OIB) span values both above and below that of unmetasomatised upper mantle (5.5 ± 0.4 per mil) and provide support for this hypothesis, as it is widely assumed that most variations in d18O are produced by near-surface low-temperature processes. Here we show a significant linear relationship between d18O and stable iron isotope ratios (d57Fe) in a suite of pristine eclogite xenoliths. The d18O values of both bulk samples and garnets range from values within error of normal mantle to significantly lighter values. The observed range and correlation between d18O and d57Fe is unlikely to be inherited from oceanic crust, as d57Fe values determined for samples of hydrothermally altered oceanic crust do not differ significantly from the mantle value and show no correlation with d18O. It is proposed that the correlated d57Fe and d18O variations in this particular eclogite suite are predominantly related to isotopic fractionation by disequilibrium partial melting although modification by melt percolation processes cannot be ruled out. Fractionation of Fe and O isotopes by removal of partial melt enriched in isotopically heavy Fe and O is supported by negative correlations between bulk sample d57Fe and Cr content and bulk sample and garnet d18O and Sc contents, as Cr and Sc are elements that become enriched in garnet- and pyroxene-bearing melt residues. Melt extraction could take place either during subduction, where the eclogites represent the residues of melted oceanic lithosphere, or could take place during long-term residence within the lithospheric mantle, in which case the protoliths of the eclogites could be of either crustal or mantle origin. This modification of both d57Fe and d18O by melting processes and specifically the production of low-d18O signatures in mafic rocks implies that some of the isotopically light d18O values observed in OIB and eclogite xenoliths may not necessarily reflect near-surface processes or components.