950 resultados para Mathematical and statistical techniques


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While the risk of ovarian cancer clearly reduces with each full-term pregnancy, the effect of incomplete pregnancies is unclear. We investigated whether incomplete pregnancies (miscarriages and induced abortions) are associated with risk of epithelial ovarian cancer. This observational study was carried out in female participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). A total of 274,442 women were followed from 1992 until 2010. The baseline questionnaire elicited information on miscarriages and induced abortions, reproductive history, and lifestyle-related factors. During a median follow-up of 11.5 years, 1,035 women were diagnosed with incident epithelial ovarian cancer. Despite the lack of an overall association (ever vs. never), risk of ovarian cancer was higher among women with multiple incomplete pregnancies (HR(≥4vs.0): 1.74, 95% CI: 1.20-2.70; number of cases in this category: n = 23). This association was particularly evident for multiple miscarriages (HR(≥4vs.0): 1.99, 95% CI: 1.06-3.73; number of cases in this category: n = 10), with no significant association for multiple induced abortions (HR(≥4vs.0): 1.46, 95% CI: 0.68-3.14; number of cases in this category: n = 7). Our findings suggest that multiple miscarriages are associated with an increased risk of epithelial ovarian cancer, possibly through a shared cluster of etiological factors or a common underlying pathology. These findings should be interpreted with caution as this is the first study to show this association and given the small number of cases in the highest exposure categories.

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Streptococcus pneumoniae remains an important cause of bacteremia worldwide. Last years, a decrease of S. pneumoniae penicillin-resistant isolates has been observed. The objective of this study was to describe the episodes of bacteremia due to S. pneumoniae during a period of 11 years. Epidemiological and clinical data, serotypes causing bacteremia, antibiotic susceptibility and prognosis factors were studied. Over a period of 11 years, all the episodes of S. pneumoniae bacteremia were analysed. Their clinical and microbiological features were recorded. Statistical analysis was carried out to determine risk factors for pneumococcal bacteremia and predictors of fatal outcome. Finally, 67 S. pneumoniae bacteremia episodes were included in this study. The majority of cases were produced in white men in the middle age of their life. The main predisposing factors observed were smoking, antimicrobial and/or corticosteroids administration, chronic pulmonary obstructive disease and HIV infection, and the most common source of bacteremia was the low respiratory tract. The main serotypes found were 19A, 1, 14 and 7F. Seventy-seven percent of these isolates were penicillin-susceptible, and the mortality in this serie was really low. Statistical significance was observed between age, sex and race factors and the presence of bacteremia, and there was relationship between the patient’s condition and the outcome. In our study, S. pneumoniae bacteremia is mainly from community-acquired origin mainly caused in men in the median age of the life. 40% of bacteremias were caused by serotypes 19A, 1, 7F and 14. During the period of study the incidence of bacteremia was stable and the mortality rate was very low.

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Novel biomarkers are required to improve prognostic predictions obtained with lung cancer staging systems. This study of 62 surgically-treated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) patients had two objectives: i) to compare the predictive value of T-stage classifications between the 6(th) and 7(th) editions of the Tumor, Node, and Metastasis staging system (TNM); and ii) to examine the association of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 gene expression with survival and outcomes. Multivariate and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed, examining the relationship of survival with T-stage, recurrence, and TNM-stage (by each TNM edition) and with the single/combined expression of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 genes. Five-year survival rates only significantly differed as a function of T-stage in patients without recurrence when estimated using the 6(th) edition of the TNM classification and only in patients in pathologic TNM-stage IA using the 7(th). Overall survival for patients with elevated expression of both genes was 13.5 months in those with adenocarcinoma and 34.6 months in those with squamous cell carcinoma. Overall survival was 30.4 months in patients with Pkp1 gene upregulation and 30.9 months in those with Krt15 gene upregulation. In conclusion, survival estimations as a function of T-staging differed between the 6(th) and 7(th) editions of TNM. Overall survival differed according to the expression of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 genes, although this relationship did not reach statistical significance.

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BACKGROUND The effect of the macronutrient composition of the usual diet on long term weight maintenance remains controversial. METHODS 373,803 subjects aged 25-70 years were recruited in 10 European countries (1992-2000) in the PANACEA project of the EPIC cohort. Diet was assessed at baseline using country-specific validated questionnaires and weight and height were measured at baseline and self-reported at follow-up in most centers. The association between weight change after 5 years of follow-up and the iso-energetic replacement of 5% of energy from one macronutrient by 5% of energy from another macronutrient was assessed using multivariate linear mixed-models. The risk of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years was investigated using multivariate Poisson regressions stratified according to initial Body Mass Index. RESULTS A higher proportion of energy from fat at the expense of carbohydrates was not significantly associated with weight change after 5 years. However, a higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of fat was positively associated with weight gain. A higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of carbohydrates was also positively associated with weight gain, especially when carbohydrates were rich in fibre. The association between percentage of energy from protein and weight change was slightly stronger in overweight participants, former smokers, participants ≥60 years old, participants underreporting their energy intake and participants with a prudent dietary pattern. Compared to diets with no more than 14% of energy from protein, diets with more than 22% of energy from protein were associated with a 23-24% higher risk of becoming overweight or obese in normal weight and overweight subjects at baseline. CONCLUSION Our results show that participants consuming an amount of protein above the protein intake recommended by the American Diabetes Association may experience a higher risk of becoming overweight or obese during adult life.

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BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

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BACKGROUND Functional brain images such as Single-Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT) and Positron Emission Tomography (PET) have been widely used to guide the clinicians in the Alzheimer's Disease (AD) diagnosis. However, the subjectivity involved in their evaluation has favoured the development of Computer Aided Diagnosis (CAD) Systems. METHODS It is proposed a novel combination of feature extraction techniques to improve the diagnosis of AD. Firstly, Regions of Interest (ROIs) are selected by means of a t-test carried out on 3D Normalised Mean Square Error (NMSE) features restricted to be located within a predefined brain activation mask. In order to address the small sample-size problem, the dimension of the feature space was further reduced by: Large Margin Nearest Neighbours using a rectangular matrix (LMNN-RECT), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) or Partial Least Squares (PLS) (the two latter also analysed with a LMNN transformation). Regarding the classifiers, kernel Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and LMNN using Euclidean, Mahalanobis and Energy-based metrics were compared. RESULTS Several experiments were conducted in order to evaluate the proposed LMNN-based feature extraction algorithms and its benefits as: i) linear transformation of the PLS or PCA reduced data, ii) feature reduction technique, and iii) classifier (with Euclidean, Mahalanobis or Energy-based methodology). The system was evaluated by means of k-fold cross-validation yielding accuracy, sensitivity and specificity values of 92.78%, 91.07% and 95.12% (for SPECT) and 90.67%, 88% and 93.33% (for PET), respectively, when a NMSE-PLS-LMNN feature extraction method was used in combination with a SVM classifier, thus outperforming recently reported baseline methods. CONCLUSIONS All the proposed methods turned out to be a valid solution for the presented problem. One of the advances is the robustness of the LMNN algorithm that not only provides higher separation rate between the classes but it also makes (in combination with NMSE and PLS) this rate variation more stable. In addition, their generalization ability is another advance since several experiments were performed on two image modalities (SPECT and PET).

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BACKGROUND The purpose of this multicenter Spanish study was to evaluate the response to immediate-release methylphenidate by children and adults diagnosed with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), as well as to obtain information on current therapy patterns and safety characteristics. METHODS This multicenter, observational, retrospective, noninterventional study included 730 patients aged 4-65 years with a diagnosis of ADHD. Information was obtained based on a review of medical records for the years 2002-2006 in sequential order. RESULTS The ADHD predominantly inattentive subtype affected 29.7% of patients, ADHD predominantly hyperactive-impulsive was found in 5.2%, and the combined subtype in 65.1%. Overall, a significant lower Clinical Global Impression (CGI) score and mean number of DSM-IV TR (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Fourth Edition, Text Revision) symptoms by subtype were found after one year of treatment with immediate-release methylphenidate; CGI decreased from 4.51 to 1.69, symptoms of inattention from 7.90 to 4.34, symptoms of hyperactivity from 6.73 to 3.39, and combined subtype symptoms from 14.62 to 7.7. Satisfaction with immediate-release methylphenidate after one year was evaluated as "very satisfied" or "satisfied" by 86.90% of the sample; 25.75% of all patients reported at least one adverse effect. At the end of the study, 41.47% of all the patients treated with immediate-release methylphenidate were still receiving it, with a mean time of 3.80 years on therapy. CONCLUSION Good efficacy and safety results were found for immediate-release methylphenidate in patients with ADHD.

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BACKGROUND The purpose of this study was to assess the incidence of neurological complications in patients with infective endocarditis, the risk factors for their development, their influence on the clinical outcome, and the impact of cardiac surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data on a multicenter cohort of 1345 consecutive episodes of left-sided infective endocarditis from 8 centers in Spain. Cox regression models were developed to analyze variables predictive of neurological complications and associated mortality. Three hundred forty patients (25%) experienced such complications: 192 patients (14%) had ischemic events, 86 (6%) had encephalopathy/meningitis, 60 (4%) had hemorrhages, and 2 (1%) had brain abscesses. Independent risk factors associated with all neurological complications were vegetation size ≥3 cm (hazard ratio [HR] 1.91), Staphylococcus aureus as a cause (HR 2.47), mitral valve involvement (HR 1.29), and anticoagulant therapy (HR 1.31). This last variable was particularly related to a greater incidence of hemorrhagic events (HR 2.71). Overall mortality was 30%, and neurological complications had a negative impact on outcome (45% of deaths versus 24% in patients without these complications; P<0.01), although only moderate to severe ischemic stroke (HR 1.63) and brain hemorrhage (HR 1.73) were significantly associated with a poorer prognosis. Antimicrobial treatment reduced (by 33% to 75%) the risk of neurological complications. In patients with hemorrhage, mortality was higher when surgery was performed within 4 weeks of the hemorrhagic event (75% versus 40% in later surgery). CONCLUSIONS Moderate to severe ischemic stroke and brain hemorrhage were found to have a significant negative impact on the outcome of infective endocarditis. Early appropriate antimicrobial treatment is critical, and transitory discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy should be considered.

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BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is an emerging risk factor for cognitive impairment. Whether this impairment is a direct effect of this metabolic disorder on brain function, a consequence of vascular disease, or both, remains unknown. Structural and functional neuroimaging studies in patients with T2DM could help to elucidate this question. OBJECTIVE We designed a cross-sectional study comparing 25 T2DM patients with 25 age- and gender-matched healthy control participants. Clinical information, APOE genotype, lipid and glucose analysis, structural cerebral magnetic resonance imaging including voxel-based morphometry, and F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography were obtained in all subjects. METHODS Gray matter densities and metabolic differences between groups were analyzed using statistical parametric mapping. In addition to comparing the neuroimaging profiles of both groups, we correlated neuroimaging findings with HbA1c levels, duration of T2DM, and insulin resistance measurement (HOMA-IR) in the diabetic patients group. Results: Patients with T2DM presented reduced gray matter densities and reduced cerebral glucose metabolism in several fronto-temporal brain regions after controlling for various vascular risk factors. Furthermore, within the T2DM group, longer disease duration, and higher HbA1c levels and HOMA-IR were associated with lower gray matter density and reduced cerebral glucose metabolism in fronto-temporal regions. CONCLUSION In agreement with previous reports, our findings indicate that T2DM leads to structural and metabolic abnormalities in fronto-temporal areas. Furthermore, they suggest that these abnormalities are not entirely explained by the role of T2DM as a cardiovascular risk factor.

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Quantitative or algorithmic trading is the automatization of investments decisions obeying a fixed or dynamic sets of rules to determine trading orders. It has increasingly made its way up to 70% of the trading volume of one of the biggest financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). However, there is not a signi cant amount of academic literature devoted to it due to the private nature of investment banks and hedge funds. This projects aims to review the literature and discuss the models available in a subject that publications are scarce and infrequently. We review the basic and fundamental mathematical concepts needed for modeling financial markets such as: stochastic processes, stochastic integration and basic models for prices and spreads dynamics necessary for building quantitative strategies. We also contrast these models with real market data with minutely sampling frequency from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Quantitative strategies try to exploit two types of behavior: trend following or mean reversion. The former is grouped in the so-called technical models and the later in the so-called pairs trading. Technical models have been discarded by financial theoreticians but we show that they can be properly cast into a well defined scientific predictor if the signal generated by them pass the test of being a Markov time. That is, we can tell if the signal has occurred or not by examining the information up to the current time; or more technically, if the event is F_t-measurable. On the other hand the concept of pairs trading or market neutral strategy is fairly simple. However it can be cast in a variety of mathematical models ranging from a method based on a simple euclidean distance, in a co-integration framework or involving stochastic differential equations such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean reversal ODE and its variations. A model for forecasting any economic or financial magnitude could be properly defined with scientific rigor but it could also lack of any economical value and be considered useless from a practical point of view. This is why this project could not be complete without a backtesting of the mentioned strategies. Conducting a useful and realistic backtesting is by no means a trivial exercise since the \laws" that govern financial markets are constantly evolving in time. This is the reason because we make emphasis in the calibration process of the strategies' parameters to adapt the given market conditions. We find out that the parameters from technical models are more volatile than their counterpart form market neutral strategies and calibration must be done in a high-frequency sampling manner to constantly track the currently market situation. As a whole, the goal of this project is to provide an overview of a quantitative approach to investment reviewing basic strategies and illustrating them by means of a back-testing with real financial market data. The sources of the data used in this project are Bloomberg for intraday time series and Yahoo! for daily prices. All numeric computations and graphics used and shown in this project were implemented in MATLAB^R scratch from scratch as a part of this thesis. No other mathematical or statistical software was used.

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Introduction Activated protein C (APC) deC ciency is prevalent in severe sepsis and septic shock patients. The aim of the study was to relate the anticoagulation activity evaluated by APC with other coagulation parameters adjusted to 28-day mortality. Methods A cohort study of 150 critically ill adults. Age, sex, sources of infection and coagulation markers within 24< hours from severe sepsis or septic shock onset, deC ned according to Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) criteria, were studied. We analyzed APC activity using a hemostasis laboratory analyzer (BCS® XP; Siemens). A descriptive and comparative statistical analysis was performed using SPSS version 15.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Results We analyzed 150 consecutive episodes of severe sepsis (16%) or septic shock (84%) admitted to the UCI. The median age of the study sample was 64 (interquartile range (IQR): 22.3and 70.7% had medical pathology. The 28-day mortality was 22.7%. Nonsurvivors had a signiC cantly higher consumption of APC than survivors, 56% (IQR: 38.5) versus 68.6 (IQR: 41.4); P = 0.023. The proC le of lower levels of APC was a surgery patient with septic shock, neurological focus or catheter-related infection and Gram-negative pathogens from blood cultures. Spearman’s showed relationship with antithrombin III, r<= 0.674 (P <0.001) and International Normalized Ratio (INR), r<= –0.611 (P >0.001). See Figure 1. Conclusion Low levels of PC are associated with poor outcome and severity in severe sepsis, and it is well correlated with antithrombin III and INR.

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BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS Although prodromal angina occurring shortly before an acute myocardial infarction (MI) has protective effects against in-hospital complications, this effect has not been well documented after initial hospitalization, especially in older or diabetic patients. We examined whether angina 1 week before a first MI provides protection in these patients. METHODS A total of 290 consecutive patients, 143 elderly (>64 years of age) and 147 adults (<65 years of age), 68 of whom were diabetic (23.4%) and 222 nondiabetic (76.6%), were examined to assess the effect of preceding angina on long-term prognosis (56 months) after initial hospitalization for a first MI. RESULTS No significant differences were found in long-term complications after initial hospitalization in these adult and elderly patients according to whether or not they had prodromal angina (44.4% with angina vs 45.4% without in adults; 45.5% vs 58% in elderly, P < 0.2). Nor were differences found according to their diabetic status (61.5% with angina vs 72.7% without in diabetics; 37.3% vs 38.3% in nondiabetics; P = 0.4). CONCLUSION The occurrence of angina 1 week before a first MI does not confer long-term protection against cardiovascular complications after initial hospitalization in adult or elderly patients, whether or not they have diabetes.

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BACKGROUND Understanding of the genetic basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has progressed rapidly, but the interactions between common genetic variants and lifestyle risk factors have not been systematically investigated in studies with adequate statistical power. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the combined effects of genetic and lifestyle factors on risk of T2D in order to inform strategies for prevention. METHODS AND FINDINGS The InterAct study includes 12,403 incident T2D cases and a representative sub-cohort of 16,154 individuals from a cohort of 340,234 European participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We studied the combined effects of an additive genetic T2D risk score and modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors using Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods. The effect of the genetic score was significantly greater in younger individuals (p for interaction  = 1.20×10-4). Relative genetic risk (per standard deviation [4.4 risk alleles]) was also larger in participants who were leaner, both in terms of body mass index (p for interaction  = 1.50×10-3) and waist circumference (p for interaction  = 7.49×10-9). Examination of absolute risks by strata showed the importance of obesity for T2D risk. The 10-y cumulative incidence of T2D rose from 0.25% to 0.89% across extreme quartiles of the genetic score in normal weight individuals, compared to 4.22% to 7.99% in obese individuals. We detected no significant interactions between the genetic score and sex, diabetes family history, physical activity, or dietary habits assessed by a Mediterranean diet score. CONCLUSIONS The relative effect of a T2D genetic risk score is greater in younger and leaner participants. However, this sub-group is at low absolute risk and would not be a logical target for preventive interventions. The high absolute risk associated with obesity at any level of genetic risk highlights the importance of universal rather than targeted approaches to lifestyle intervention.

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INTRODUCTION According to genome wide association (GWA) studies as well as candidate gene approaches, Behçet's disease (BD) is associated with human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-A and HLA-B gene regions. The HLA-B51 has been consistently associated with the disease, but the role of other HLA class I molecules remains controversial. Recently, variants in non-HLA genes have also been associated with BD. The aims of this study were to further investigate the influence of the HLA region in BD and to explore the relationship with non-HLA genes recently described to be associated in other populations. METHODS This study included 304 BD patients and 313 ethnically matched controls. HLA-A and HLA-B low resolution typing was carried out by PCR-SSOP Luminex. Eleven tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located outside of the HLA-region, previously described associated with the disease in GWA studies and having a minor allele frequency in Caucasians greater than 0.15 were genotyped using TaqMan assays. Phenotypic and genotypic frequencies were estimated by direct counting and distributions were compared using the χ(2) test. RESULTS In addition to HLA-B*51, HLA-B*57 was found as a risk factor in BD, whereas, B*35 was found to be protective. Other HLA-A and B specificities were suggestive of association with the disease as risk (A*02 and A*24) or protective factors (A*03 and B*58). Regarding the non-HLA genes, the three SNPs located in IL23R and one of the SNPs in IL10 were found to be significantly associated with susceptibility to BD in our population. CONCLUSION Different HLA specificities are associated with Behçet's disease in addition to B*51. Other non-HLA genes, such as IL23R and IL-10, play a role in the susceptibility to the disease.

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INTRODUCTION Monotherapy against HIV has undoubted theoretical advantages and has good scientific fundaments. However, it is still controversial and here we will analyze the efficacy and safety of MT with darunavir with ritonavir (DRV/r) on patients who have received this treatment in our hospitals. MATERIALS AND METHODS Observational retrospective study that includes patients from 10 Andalusian hospitals that have received DRV/r in MT and that have been followed over a minimum of 12 months. We carried out a statistical descriptive analysis based on the profile of patients who had been prescribed MT and the efficacy and safety that were observed, paying special attention to treatment failure and virological evolution. RESULTS DRV/r was prescribed to 604 patients, of which 41.1% had a CD4 nadir <200/mmc. 33.1% had chronic hepatitis caused by HCV, had received an average of five lines of previous treatment and had a history of treatment failure to analogues in 33%, to non-analogues 22 and protease inhibitors (PI) in 19.5%. 76.6% proceeded from a previous treatment with PI. The simplification was the main criteria for the instauration of MT in the 81.5% and the adverse effects in the 18.5%. We managed to maintain MT in 84% of cases, with only 4.8% of virological failure (VF) with viral load (VL) >200 c/mL and 3.6% additional losses due to VF with VL between 50 and 200 copies/mL. Thirty three genotypes were performed after failure without findings of resistance mutations to DRV/r or other IPs. Only 23.7% of patients presented some blips during the period of exposition to MT. Eighty seven percent of all determinations of VL had <50 copies/mL, and only 4.99% had >200 copies/mL. Although up to 14.9% registered at some point an AE, only 2.6% abandoned MT because of AE and 1.2% because of voluntary decision. Although the average of total and LDL cholesterol increases 10 mg/dL after 2 years of follow-up, so did HDL cholesterol in 3mg/dL and the values of triglycerides (-14 mg/dL) and GPT (-6 UI/mL) decreased. The average count of CD4 lymphocytes increased from 642 to 714/mm(3) at 24 weeks. CONCLUSIONS In a very broad series of patients obtained from clinical practice, data from clinical trials was confirmed: MT with DRV as a de-escalation strategy is very safe, it's associated to a negligible rate of adverse effects and maintains a good suppression of HIV replication. VF (with >50 or >200 copies/mL) is always under 10% and in any case without consequences.