944 resultados para MCMC sampling


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Sampling protocols for detecting Salmonella on poultry differ among various countries. In the United States, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service dictates that whole broiler carcasses should be rinsed with 400 ml of 1% buffered peptone water, whereas in the European Union 25-g samples composed of neck skin from three carcasses are evaluated. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a whole carcass rinse (WCR) and a neck skin excision (NS) procedure for Salmonella and Escherichia coli isolation from the same broiler carcass. Carcasses were obtained from three broiler processing plants. The skin around the neck area was aseptically removed and bagged separately from the carcass, and microbiological analysis was performed. The corresponding carcass was bagged and a WCR sample was evaluated. No significant difference (alpha <= 0.05) in Salmonella prevalence was found between the samples processed by the two methods, but both procedures produced many false-negative Salmonella results. Prechill, 37% (66 carcasses), 28% (50 carcasses), and 51% (91 carcasses) of the 180 carcasses examined were positive for Salmonella by WCR, NS, and both procedures combined, respectively. Postchill, 3% (5 carcasses), 7% (12 carcasses), and 10% (17 carcasses) of the 177 carcasses examined were positive for Salmonella by the WCR, NS, and combination of both procedures, respectively. Prechill, E. coli plus coliform counts were 3.0 and 2.6 log CFU/ml by the WCR and NS methods, respectively. Postchill. E. coli plus coliform counts were 1.7 and 1.4 log CFU/ml by the WCR and NS methods, respectively.

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The assembling of a system for field sampling and activity concentration measurement of radon dissolved in groundwater is described. Special attention is given in presenting the calibration procedure to obtain the radon activity concentration in groundwater from the raw counting rate registered in a portable scintillation detector and in establishing the precision of the activity concentration measurements. A field procedure was established and the system tested during one year of monthly observations of (222)Rn activity concentration in groundwater drawn from two wells drilled on metamorphic rocks exposed at Eastern Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The observed mean (222)Rn activity concentrations are 374 Bq/dm(3) in one well and about 1275 Bq/dm(3) in the other one. In both wells the (222)Rn activity concentrations showed a seasonal variation similar to variations previously reported in the literature for the same region. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Activities involving fauna monitoring are usually limited by the lack of resources; therefore, the choice of a proper and efficient methodology is fundamental to maximize the cost-benefit ratio. Both direct and indirect methods can be used to survey mammals, but the latter are preferred due to the difficulty to come in sight of and/or to capture the individuals, besides being cheaper. We compared the performance of two methods to survey medium and large-sized mammal: track plot recording and camera trapping, and their costs were assessed. At Jatai Ecological Station (S21 degrees 31`15 ``- W47 degrees 34`42 ``-Brazil) we installed ten camera traps along a dirt road directly in front of ten track plots, and monitored them for 10 days. We cleaned the plots, adjusted the cameras, and noted down the recorded species daily. Records taken by both methods showed they sample the local richness in different ways (Wilcoxon, T=231; p;;0.01). The track plot method performed better on registering individuals whereas camera trapping provided records which permitted more accurate species identification. The type of infra-red sensor camera used showed a strong bias towards individual body mass (R(2)=0.70; p=0.017), and the variable expenses of this method in a 10-day survey were estimated about 2.04 times higher compared to track plot method; however, in a long run camera trapping becomes cheaper than track plot recording. Concluding, track plot recording is good enough for quick surveys under a limited budget, and camera trapping is best for precise species identification and the investigation of species details, performing better for large animals. When used together, these methods can be complementary.

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The Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire (PRMQ) has been shown to have acceptable reliability and factorial, predictive, and concurrent validity. However, the PRMQ has never been administered to a probability sample survey representative of all ages in adulthood, nor have previous studies controlled for factors that are known to influence metamemory, such as affective status. Here, the PRMQ was applied in a survey adopting a probabilistic three-stage cluster sample representative of the population of Sao Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age (20-80 years), and economic status (n=1042). After excluding participants who had conditions that impair memory (depression, anxiety, used psychotropics, and/or had neurological/psychiatric disorders), in the remaining 664 individuals we (a) used confirmatory factor analyses to test competing models of the latent structure of the PRMQ, and (b) studied effects of gender, age, schooling, and economic status on prospective and retrospective memory complaints. The model with the best fit confirmed the same tripartite structure (general memory factor and two orthogonal prospective and retrospective memory factors) previously reported. Women complained more of general memory slips, especially those in the first 5 years after menopause, and there were more complaints of prospective than retrospective memory, except in participants with lower family income.

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The concentrations of the water-soluble inorganic aerosol species, ammonium (NH4+), nitrate (NO3-), chloride (Cl-), and sulfate (SO42-), were measured from September to November 2002 at a pasture site in the Amazon Basin (Rondnia, Brazil) (LBA-SMOCC). Measurements were conducted using a semi-continuous technique (Wet-annular denuder/Steam-Jet Aerosol Collector: WAD/SJAC) and three integrating filter-based methods, namely (1) a denuder-filter pack (DFP: Teflon and impregnated Whatman filters), (2) a stacked-filter unit (SFU: polycarbonate filters), and (3) a High Volume dichotomous sampler (HiVol: quartz fiber filters). Measurements covered the late dry season (biomass burning), a transition period, and the onset of the wet season (clean conditions). Analyses of the particles collected on filters were performed using ion chromatography (IC) and Particle-Induced X-ray Emission spectrometry (PIXE). Season-dependent discrepancies were observed between the WAD/SJAC system and the filter-based samplers. During the dry season, when PM2.5 (D-p <= 2.5 mu m) concentrations were similar to 100 mu g m(-3), aerosol NH4+ and SO42- measured by the filter-based samplers were on average two times higher than those determined by the WAD/SJAC. Concentrations of aerosol NO3- and Cl- measured with the HiVol during daytime, and with the DFP during day- and nighttime also exceeded those of the WAD/SJAC by a factor of two. In contrast, aerosol NO3- and Cl- measured with the SFU during the dry season were nearly two times lower than those measured by the WAD/SJAC. These differences declined markedly during the transition period and towards the cleaner conditions during the onset of the wet season (PM2.5 similar to 5 mu g m(-3)); when filter-based samplers measured on average 40-90% less than the WAD/SJAC. The differences were not due to consistent systematic biases of the analytical techniques, but were apparently a result of prevailing environmental conditions and different sampling procedures. For the transition period and wet season, the significance of our results is reduced by a low number of data points. We argue that the observed differences are mainly attributable to (a) positive and negative filter sampling artifacts, (b) presence of organic compounds and organosulfates on filter substrates, and (c) a SJAC sampling efficiency of less than 100%.

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MCNP has stood so far as one of the main Monte Carlo radiation transport codes. Its use, as any other Monte Carlo based code, has increased as computers perform calculations faster and become more affordable along time. However, the use of Monte Carlo method to tally events in volumes which represent a small fraction of the whole system may turn to be unfeasible, if a straight analogue transport procedure (no use of variance reduction techniques) is employed and precise results are demanded. Calculations of reaction rates in activation foils placed in critical systems turn to be one of the mentioned cases. The present work takes advantage of the fixed source representation from MCNP to perform the above mentioned task in a more effective sampling way (characterizing neutron population in the vicinity of the tallying region and using it in a geometric reduced coupled simulation). An extended analysis of source dependent parameters is studied in order to understand their influence on simulation performance and on validity of results. Although discrepant results have been observed for small enveloping regions, the procedure presents itself as very efficient, giving adequate and precise results in shorter times than the standard analogue procedure. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We present the first results of a study investigating the processes that control concentrations and sources of Pb and particulate matter in the atmosphere of Sao Paulo City Brazil Aerosols were collected with high temporal resolution (3 hours) during a four-day period in July 2005 The highest Pb concentrations measured coincided with large fireworks during celebration events and associated to high traffic occurrence Our high-resolution data highlights the impact that a singular transient event can have on air quality even in a megacity Under meteorological conditions non-conducive to pollutant dispersion Pb and particulate matter concentrations accumulated during the night leading to the highest concentrations in aerosols collected early in the morning of the following day The stable isotopes of Pb suggest that emissions from traffic remain an Important source of Pb in Sao Paulo City due to the large traffic fleet despite low Pb concentrations in fuels (C) 2010 Elsevier BV All rights reserved

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Mixed models may be defined with or without reference to sampling, and can be used to predict realized random effects, as when estimating the latent values of study subjects measured with response error. When the model is specified without reference to sampling, a simple mixed model includes two random variables, one stemming from an exchangeable distribution of latent values of study subjects and the other, from the study subjects` response error distributions. Positive probabilities are assigned to both potentially realizable responses and artificial responses that are not potentially realizable, resulting in artificial latent values. In contrast, finite population mixed models represent the two-stage process of sampling subjects and measuring their responses, where positive probabilities are only assigned to potentially realizable responses. A comparison of the estimators over the same potentially realizable responses indicates that the optimal linear mixed model estimator (the usual best linear unbiased predictor, BLUP) is often (but not always) more accurate than the comparable finite population mixed model estimator (the FPMM BLUP). We examine a simple example and provide the basis for a broader discussion of the role of conditioning, sampling, and model assumptions in developing inference.

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Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is interest in studying latent variables. These latent variables are directly considered in the Item Response Models (IRM) and they are usually called latent traits. A usual assumption for parameter estimation of the IRM, considering one group of examinees, is to assume that the latent traits are random variables which follow a standard normal distribution. However, many works suggest that this assumption does not apply in many cases. Furthermore, when this assumption does not hold, the parameter estimates tend to be biased and misleading inference can be obtained. Therefore, it is important to model the distribution of the latent traits properly. In this paper we present an alternative latent traits modeling based on the so-called skew-normal distribution; see Genton (2004). We used the centred parameterization, which was proposed by Azzalini (1985). This approach ensures the model identifiability as pointed out by Azevedo et al. (2009b). Also, a Metropolis Hastings within Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm was built for parameter estimation by using an augmented data approach. A simulation study was performed in order to assess the parameter recovery in the proposed model and the estimation method, and the effect of the asymmetry level of the latent traits distribution on the parameter estimation. Also, a comparison of our approach with other estimation methods (which consider the assumption of symmetric normality for the latent traits distribution) was considered. The results indicated that our proposed algorithm recovers properly all parameters. Specifically, the greater the asymmetry level, the better the performance of our approach compared with other approaches, mainly in the presence of small sample sizes (number of examinees). Furthermore, we analyzed a real data set which presents indication of asymmetry concerning the latent traits distribution. The results obtained by using our approach confirmed the presence of strong negative asymmetry of the latent traits distribution. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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The analytical determination of atmospheric pollutants still presents challenges due to the low-level concentrations (frequently in the mu g m(-3) range) and their variations with sampling site and time In this work a capillary membrane diffusion scrubber (CMDS) was scaled down to match with capillary electrophoresis (CE) a quick separation technique that requires nothing more than some nanoliters of sample and when combined with capacitively coupled contactless conductometric detection (C(4)D) is particularly favorable for ionic species that do not absorb in the UV-vis region like the target analytes formaldehyde formic acid acetic acid and ammonium The CMDS was coaxially assembled inside a PTFE tube and fed with acceptor phase (deionized water for species with a high Henry s constant such as formaldehyde and carboxylic acids or acidic solution for ammonia sampling with equilibrium displacement to the non-volatile ammonium ion) at a low flow rate (8 3 nLs(-1)) while the sample was aspirated through the annular gap of the concentric tubes at 25 mLs(-1) A second unit in all similar to the CMDS was operated as a capillary membrane diffusion emitter (CMDE) generating a gas flow with know concentrations of ammonia for the evaluation of the CMDS The fluids of the system were driven with inexpensive aquarium air pumps and the collected samples were stored in vials cooled by a Peltier element Complete protocols were developed for the analysis in air of NH(3) CH(3)COOH HCOOH and with a derivatization setup CH(2)O by associating the CMDS collection with the determination by CE-C(4)D The ammonia concentrations obtained by electrophoresis were checked against the reference spectrophotometric method based on Berthelot s reaction Sensitivity enhancements of this reference method were achieved by using a modified Berthelot reaction solenoid micro-pumps for liquid propulsion and a long optical path cell based on a liquid core waveguide (LCW) All techniques and methods of this work are in line with the green analytical chemistry trends (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

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This paper reports a method for the direct and simultaneous determination of Cr and Mn in alumina by slurry sampling graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (SiS-SIMAAS) using niobium carbide (NbC) as a graphite platform modifier and sodium fluoride (NaF) as a matrix modifier. 350 mu g of Nb were thermally deposited on the platform surface allowing the formation of NbC (mp 3500 degrees C) to minimize the reaction between aluminium and carbon of the pyrolytic platform, improving the graphite tube lifetime up to 150 heating cycles. A solution of 0.2 mol L(-1) NaF was used as matrix modifier for alumina dissolution as cryolite-based melt, allowing volatilization during pyrolysis step. Masses (c.a. 50 mg) of sample were suspended in 30 ml of 2.0% (v/v) of HNO(3). Slurry was manually homogenized before sampling. Aliquots of 20 mu l of analytical solutions and slurry samples were co-injected into the graphite tube with 20 mu l of the matrix modifier. In the best conditions of the heating program, pyrolysis and atomization temperatures were 1300 degrees C and 2400 degrees C, respectively. A step of 1000 degrees C was optimized allowing the alumina dissolution to form cryolite. The accuracy of the proposed method has been evaluated by the analysis of standard reference materials. The found concentrations presented no statistical differences compared to the certified values at 95% of the confidence level. Limits of detection were 66 ng g(-1) for Cr and 102 ng g(-1) for Mn and the characteristic masses were 10 and 13 pg for Cr and Mn, respectively.

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In situ fusion on the boat-type graphite platform has been used as a sample pretreatment for the direct determination of Co, Cr and Mn in Portland cement by solid sampling graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (SS-GF AAS). The 3-field Zeeman technique was adopted for background correction to decrease the sensitivity during measurements. This strategy allowed working with up to 200 mu g of sample. The in situ fusion was accomplished using 10 mu L of a flux mixture 4.0% m/v Na(2)CO(3) + 4.0% m/v ZnO + 0.1% m/v Triton (R) X-100 added over the cement sample and heated at 800 degrees C for 20 s. The resulting mould was completely dissolved with 10 mu L of 0.1% m/v HNO(3). Limits of detection were 0.11 mu g g(-1) for Co, 1.1 mu g g(-1) for Cr and 1.9 mu g g(-1) for Mn. The accuracy of the proposed method has been evaluated by the analysis of certified reference materials. The values found presented no statistically significant differences compared to the certified values (Student`s t-test, p<0.05). In general, the relative standard deviation was lower than 12% (n = 5). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Compared to other volatile carbonylic compounds present in outdoor air, formaldehyde (CH2O) is the most toxic, deserving more attention in terms of indoor and outdoor air quality legislation and control. The analytical determination of CH2O in air still presents challenges due to the low-level concentration (in the sub-ppb range) and its variation with sampling site and time. Of the many available analytical methods for carbonylic compounds, the most widespread one is the time consuming collection in cartridges impregnated with 2,4-dinitrophenylhydrazine followed by the analysis of the formed hydrazones by HPLC. The present work proposes the use of polypropylene hollow porous capillary fibers to achieve efficient CH2O collection. The Oxyphan (R) fiber (designed for blood oxygenation) was chosen for this purpose because it presents good mechanical resistance, high density of very fine pores and high ratio of collection area to volume of the acceptor fluid in the tube, all favorable for the development of air sampling apparatus. The collector device consists of a Teflon pipe inside of which a bundle of polypropylene microporous capillary membranes was introduced. While the acceptor passes at a low flow rate through the capillaries, the sampled air circulates around the fibers, impelled by a low flow membrane pump (of the type used for aquariums ventilation). The coupling of this sampling technique with the selective and quantitative determination of CH2O, in the form of hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) after derivatization with HSO3-, by capillary electrophoresis with capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detection (CE-(CD)-D-4) enabled the development of a complete analytical protocol for the CH2O evaluation in air. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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A fast and reliable method for the direct determination of iron in sand by solid sampling graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry was developed. A Zeeman-effect 3-field background corrector was used to decrease the sensitivity of spectrometer measurements. This strategy allowed working with up to 200 mu g of samples, thus improving the representativity. Using samples with small particle sizes (1-50 mu m) and adding 5 mu g Pd as chemical modifier, it was possible to obtain suitable calibration curves with aqueous reference solutions. The pyrolysis and atomization temperatures for the optimized heating program were 1400 and 2500 degrees C, respectively. The characteristic mass, based on integrated absorbance, was 56 pg, and the detection limits, calculated considering the variability of 20 consecutive measurements of platform inserted without sample was 32 pg. The accuracy of the procedure was checked with the analysis of two reference materials (IPT 62 and 63). The determined concentrations were in agreement with the recommended values (95% confidence level). Five sand samples were analyzed, and a good agreement (95% confidence level) was observed using the proposed method and conventional flame atomic absorption spectrometry. The relative standard deviations were lower than 25% (n = 5). The tube and boat platform lifetimes were around 1000 and 250 heating cycles, respectively.