Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products

Long term, high quality estimates of burned area are needed for improving both prognostic and diagnostic fire emissions models and for assessing feedbacks between fire and the climate system. We developed global, monthly burned area estimates aggregated to 0.5° spatial resolution for the time period July 1996 through mid-2009 using four satellite data sets. From 2001ĝ€ "2009, our primary data source was 500-m burned area maps produced using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance imagery; more than 90% of the global area burned during this time period was mapped in this fashion. During times when the 500-m MODIS data were not available, we used a combination of local regression and regional regression trees developed over periods when burned area and Terra MODIS active fire data were available to indirectly estimate burned area. Cross-calibration with fire observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) allowed the data set to be extended prior to the MODIS era. With our data set we estimated that the global annual area burned for the years 1997ĝ€ "2008 varied between 330 and 431 Mha, with the maximum occurring in 1998. We compared our data set to the recent GFED2, L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, and MODIS MCD45A1 global burned area products and found substantial differences in many regions. Lastly, we assessed the interannual variability and long-term trends in global burned area over the past 13 years. This burned area time series serves as the basis for the third version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) estimates of trace gas and aerosol emissions.

The role of tectonic uplift, climate, and vegetation in the long-term terrestrial phosphorous cycle

Phosphorus (P) is a crucial element for life and therefore for maintaining ecosystem productivity. Its local availability to the terrestrial biosphere results from the interaction between climate, tectonic uplift, atmospheric transport, and biotic cycling. Here we present a mathematical model that describes the terrestrial P-cycle in a simple but comprehensive way. The resulting dynamical system can be solved analytically for steady-state conditions, allowing us to test the sensitivity of the P-availability to the key parameters and processes. Given constant inputs, we find that humid ecosystems exhibit lower P availability due to higher runoff and losses, and that tectonic uplift is a fundamental constraint. In particular, we find that in humid ecosystems the biotic cycling seem essential to maintain long-term P-availability. The time-dependent P dynamics for the Franz Josef and Hawaii chronosequences show how tectonic uplift is an important constraint on ecosystem productivity, while hydroclimatic conditions control the P-losses and speed towards steady-state. The model also helps describe how, with limited uplift and atmospheric input, as in the case of the Amazon Basin, ecosystems must rely on mechanisms that enhance P-availability and retention. Our novel model has a limited number of parameters and can be easily integrated into global climate models to provide a representation of the response of the terrestrial biosphere to global change. © 2010 Author(s).

Victims of infanticide and conspecific bite wounding in a female-dominant primate: a long-term study.

The aggression animals receive from conspecifics varies between individuals across their lifetime. As poignantly evidenced by infanticide, for example, aggression can have dramatic fitness consequences. Nevertheless, we understand little about the sources of variation in received aggression, particularly in females. Using a female-dominant species renowned for aggressivity in both sexes, we tested for potential social, demographic, and genetic patterns in the frequency with which animals were wounded by conspecifics. Our study included 243 captive, ring-tailed lemurs (Lemur catta), followed from infancy to adulthood over a 35-year time span. We extracted injury, social, and life-history information from colony records and calculated neutral heterozygosity for a subset of animals, as an estimate of genetic diversity. Focusing on victims rather than aggressors, we used General Linear Models to explain bite-wound patterns at different life stages. In infancy, maternal age best predicted wounds received, as infants born to young mothers were the most frequent infanticide victims. In adulthood, sex best predicted wounds received, as males were three times more likely than females to be seriously injured. No relation emerged between wounds received and the other variables studied. Beyond the generally expected costs of adult male intrasexual aggression, we suggest possible additive costs associated with female-dominant societies - those suffered by young mothers engaged in aggressive disputes and those suffered by adult males aggressively targeted by both sexes. We propose that infanticide in lemurs may be a costly by-product of aggressively mediated, female social dominance. Accordingly, the benefits of female behavioral 'masculinization' accrued to females through priority of access to resources, may be partially offset by early costs in reproductive success. Understanding the factors that influence lifetime patterns of conspecific wounding is critical to evaluating the fitness costs associated with social living; however, these costs may vary substantially between societies.

Long-term changes in physical activity following a one-year home-based physical activity counseling program in older adults with multiple morbidities.

This study assessed the sustained effect of a physical activity (PA) counseling intervention on PA one year after intervention, predictors of sustained PA participation, and three classes of post-intervention PA trajectories (improvers, maintainers, and decliners) in 238 older Veterans. Declines in minutes of PA from 12 to 24 months were observed for both the treatment and control arms of the study. PA at 12 months was the strongest predictor of post-intervention changes in PA. To our surprise, those who took up the intervention and increased PA levels the most, had significant declines in post-intervention PA. Analysis of the three post-intervention PA trajectories demonstrated that the maintenance group actually reflected a group of nonresponders to the intervention who had more comorbidities, lower self-efficacy, and worse physical function than the improvers or decliners. Results suggest that behavioral counseling/support must be ongoing to promote maintenance. Strategies to promote PA appropriately to subgroups of individuals are needed.

Long-term dynamics of death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and improving air quality.

BACKGROUND: The respiratory tract is a major target of exposure to air pollutants, and respiratory diseases are associated with both short- and long-term exposures. We hypothesized that improved air quality in North Carolina was associated with reduced rates of death from respiratory diseases in local populations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed the trends of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia mortality and changes of the levels of ozone, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matters (PM2.5 and PM10) using monthly data measurements from air-monitoring stations in North Carolina in 1993-2010. The log-linear model was used to evaluate associations between air-pollutant levels and age-adjusted death rates (per 100,000 of population) calculated for 5-year age-groups and for standard 2000 North Carolina population. The studied associations were adjusted by age group-specific smoking prevalence and seasonal fluctuations of disease-specific respiratory deaths. RESULTS: Decline in emphysema deaths was associated with decreasing levels of SO2 and CO in the air, decline in asthma deaths-with lower SO2, CO, and PM10 levels, and decline in pneumonia deaths-with lower levels of SO2. Sensitivity analyses were performed to study potential effects of the change from International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 to ICD-10 codes, the effects of air pollutants on mortality during summer and winter, the impact of approach when only the underlying causes of deaths were used, and when mortality and air-quality data were analyzed on the county level. In each case, the results of sensitivity analyses demonstrated stability. The importance of analysis of pneumonia as an underlying cause of death was also highlighted. CONCLUSION: Significant associations were observed between decreasing death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and decreases in levels of ambient air pollutants in North Carolina.

Memorabeatlia: a naturalistic study of long-term memory.

Seventy-six undergraduates were given the titles and first lines of Beatles' songs and asked to recall the songs. Seven hundred and four different undergraduates were cued with one line from each of 25 Beatles' songs and asked to recall the title. The probability of recalling a line was best predicted by the number of times a line was repeated in the song and how early the line first appeared in the song. The probability of cuing to the title was best predicted by whether the line shared words with the title. Although the subjects recalled only 21% of the lines, there were very few errors in recall, and the errors rarely violated the rhythmic, poetic, or thematic constraints of the songs. Acting together, these constraints can account for the near verbatim recall observed. Fourteen subjects, who transcribed one song, made fewer and different errors than the subjects who had recalled the song, indicating that the errors in recall were not primarily the result of errors in encoding.

The Macrophage-Specific Promoter mfap4 Allows Live, Long-Term Analysis of Macrophage Behavior during Mycobacterial Infection in Zebrafish.

Transgenic labeling of innate immune cell lineages within the larval zebrafish allows for real-time, in vivo analyses of microbial pathogenesis within a vertebrate host. To date, labeling of zebrafish macrophages has been relatively limited, with the most specific expression coming from the mpeg1 promoter. However, mpeg1 transcription at both endogenous and transgenic loci becomes attenuated in the presence of intracellular pathogens, including Salmonella typhimurium and Mycobacterium marinum. Here, we describe mfap4 as a macrophage-specific promoter capable of producing transgenic lines in which transgene expression within larval macrophages remains stable throughout several days of infection. Additionally, we have developed a novel macrophage-specific Cre transgenic line under the control of mfap4, enabling macrophage-specific expression using existing floxed transgenic lines. These tools enrich the repertoire of transgenic lines and promoters available for studying zebrafish macrophage dynamics during infection and inflammation and add flexibility to the design of future macrophage-specific transgenic lines.

Understanding the Context for Long-Term Care Planning.

Evolving family structure and economic conditions may affect individuals' ability and willingness to plan for future long-term care (LTC) needs. We applied life course constructs to analyze focus group data from a study of family decision making about LTC insurance. Participants described how past exposure to caregiving motivated them to engage in LTC planning; in contrast, child rearing discouraged LTC planning. Perceived institutional and economic instability drove individuals to regard financial LTC planning as either a wise precaution or another risk. Perceived economic instability also shaped opinions that adult children are ill-equipped to support parents' LTC. Despite concerns about viability of social insurance programs, some participants described strategies to maximize gains from them. Changing norms around aging and family roles also affected expectations of an active older age, innovative LTC options, and limitations to adult children's involvement. Understanding life course context can inform policy efforts to encourage LTC planning.

Ventricular conduction and long-term heart failure outcomes and mortality in African Americans: insights from the Jackson Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: QRS prolongation is associated with adverse outcomes in mostly white populations, but its clinical significance is not well established for other groups. We investigated the association between QRS duration and mortality in African Americans. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from 5146 African Americans in the Jackson Heart Study stratified by QRS duration on baseline 12-lead ECG. We defined QRS prolongation as QRS≥100 ms. We assessed the association between QRS duration and all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards models and reported the cumulative incidence of heart failure hospitalization. We identified factors associated with the development of QRS prolongation in patients with normal baseline QRS. At baseline, 30% (n=1528) of participants had QRS prolongation. The cumulative incidences of mortality and heart failure hospitalization were greater with versus without baseline QRS prolongation: 12.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.0-14.4) versus 7.1% (95% CI, 6.3-8.0) and 8.2% (95% CI, 6.9-9.7) versus 4.4% (95% CI, 3.7-5.1), respectively. After risk adjustment, QRS prolongation was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.56; P=0.02). There was a linear relationship between QRS duration and mortality (hazard ratio per 10 ms increase, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12). Older age, male sex, prior myocardial infarction, lower ejection fraction, left ventricular hypertrophy, and left ventricular dilatation were associated with the development of QRS prolongation. CONCLUSIONS: QRS prolongation in African Americans was associated with increased mortality and heart failure hospitalization. Factors associated with developing QRS prolongation included age, male sex, prior myocardial infarction, and left ventricular structural abnormalities.

Effect of long-term aging on the rheological characteristics and printing performance of lead-free solder pastes used for flip-chip assembly

Stencil printing of solder pastes is a critical stage in the SMT assembly process as a high proportion of the solder-related defects can be attributed to this stage. As the trend towards product miniaturization continues, there is a greater need for better understanding of the rheological behaviour and printing performance of new paste formulations. This fundamental understanding is crucial for achieving the repeatable solder paste deposits from board-to-board and pad-to-pad required for more reliable solder interconnections. The paper concerns a study on the effect of ageing on the rheological characteristics and printing performance of new lead-free solder pastes formulations used for flip-chip assembly applications. The objective is to correlate the rheological characteristics of aged paste samples to their printing performance. The methodology developed can be used for bench-marking new lead-free paste formulations in terms of shelf life, the potential deterioration in rheological characteristics and their printing performance.

Heavy metals in the Fal estuary, Cornwall: A study of long term contamination by mining waste and its effects on estuarine organisms. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 2

The Fal Estuary System in West Cornwall has, over many centuries, received inputs of heavy metals from various mining activities. In this context its most important tributary is the Carnon River. Analyses of organisms from the Fal Estuary have shown that some species contain abnormally high concentrations of Cu, Zn and As, especially those living in Restronguet Creek.

Long-term and regional variability of phytoplankton biomass in the Northeast Atlantic (1960-1995)

Long-term regional changes in phytoplankton biomass in the Northeast Atlantic and North Sea are investigated using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. During the last decade there have been large changes in the long-term variation in phytoplankton biomass in the Northeast Atlantic and North Sea. Most regions, particularly in the North Sea, have shown a considerable increase in phytoplankton biomass while the opposite pattern was seen in the northern oceanic region of the Northeast Atlantic. These different spatial responses show similar patterns of change to the decadal variability in sea surface temperature influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Two rare oceanographic events and their relationship to the interannual changes in phytoplankton biomass are discussed. The results highlight the importance of maintaining long-term biological monitoring programmes to assess the biological responses to slow oceanic/atmospheric processes and to rare or episodic physical events.

Long-Term Oceanographic and Ecological Research in the Western English Channel

Long-term research in the western English Channel, undertaken by the marine laboratories in Plymouth, is described and details of survey methods, sites, and time series given in this chapter. Major findings are summarized and their limitations outlined. Current research, with recent reestablishment and expansion of many sampling programmes, is presented, and possible future approaches are indicated. These unique long-term data sets provide an environmental baseline for predicting complex ecological responses to local, regional, and global environmental change. Between 1888 and the present, investigations have been carried out into the physical, chemical, and biological components (ranging from plankton and fish to benthic and intertidal assemblages) of the western English Channel ecosystem. The Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom has performed the main body of these observations. More recent contributions come from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey, now the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, dating from 1957; the Institute for Marine Environmental Research, from 1974 to 1987; and the Plymouth Marine Laboratory, which was formed by amalgamation of the Institute for Marine Environmental Research and part of the Marine Biological Association, from 1988. Together, these contributions constitute a unique data series; one of the longest and most comprehensive samplings of environmental and marine biological variables in the world. Since the termination of many of these time series in 1987-1988 during a reorganisation of UK marine research, there has been a resurgence of interest in long-term environmental change. Many programmes have been restarted and expanded with support from several agencies. The observations span significant periods of warming (1921-1961; 1985-present) and cooling (1962-1980). During these periods of change, the abundance of key species underwent dramatic shifts. The first period of warming saw changes in zooplankton, pelagic fish, and larval fish, including the collapse of an important herring fishery. During later periods of change, shifts in species abundances have been reflected in other assemblages, such as the intertidal zone and the benthic fauna. Many of these changes appear to be related to climate, manifested as temperature changes, acting directly or indirectly. The hypothesis that climate is a forcing factor is widely supported today and has been reinforced by recent studies that show responses of marine organisms to climatic attributes such as the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The long-term data also yield important insights into the effects of anthropogenic disturbances such as fisheries exploitation and pollution. Comparison of demersal fish hauls over time highlights fisheries effects not only on commercially important species but also on the entire demersal community. The effects of acute ("Torrey Canyon" oil spill) and chronic (tributyltin [TBT] antifoulants) pollution are clearly seen in the intertidal records. Significant advances in diverse scientific disciplines have been generated from research undertaken alongside the long-term data series.