Intelligent methods for load forecasting

Load forecasting is an important task in the management of a power utility. The most recent developments in forecasting involve the use of artificial intelligence techniques, which offer powerful modelling capabilities. This paper discusses these techniques and provides a review of their application to load forecasting.

Nitric oxide suppresses cerebral vasomotion by sGC-independent effects on ryanodine receptors and voltage-gated calcium channels

Background/Aims: In cerebral arteries, nitric oxide (NO) release plays a key role in suppressing vasomotion. Our aim was to establish the pathways affected by NO in rat middle cerebral arteries. Methods: In isolated segments of artery, isometric tension and simultaneous measurements of either smooth muscle membrane potential or intracellular [Ca 2+ ] ([Ca 2+ ] SMC ) changes were recorded. Results: In the absence of L -NAME, asynchronous propagating Ca 2+ waves were recorded that were sensitive to block with ryanodine, but not nifedipine. L -NAME stimulated pronounced vasomotion and synchronous Ca 2+ oscillations with close temporal coupling between membrane potential, tone and [Ca 2+ ] SMC . If nifedipine was applied together with L -NAME, [Ca 2+ ] SMC decreased and synchronous Ca 2+ oscillations were lost, but asynchronous propagating Ca 2+ waves persisted. Vasomotion was similarly evoked by either iberiotoxin, or by ryanodine, and to a lesser extent by ODQ. Exogenous application of NONOate stimulated endothelium-independent hyperpolarization and relaxation of either L -NAME-induced or spontaneous arterial tone. NO-evoked hyperpolarization involved activation of BK Ca channels via ryanodine receptors (RYRs), with little involvement of sGC. Further, in whole cell mode, NO inhibited current through L-type voltage-gated Ca 2+ channels (VGCC), which was independent of both voltage and sGC. Conclusion: NO exerts sGC-independent actions at RYRs and at VGCC, both of which normally suppress cerebral artery myogenic tone.

Evidence both L-type and non-L-type voltage-dependent calcium channels contribute to cerebral artery vasospasm following loss of NO in the rat

We recently found block of NO synthase in rat middle cerebral artery caused spasm, associated with depolarizing oscillations in membrane potential (Em) similar in form but faster in frequency (circa 1 Hz) to vasomotion. T-type voltage-gated Ca2+ channels contribute to cerebral myogenic tone and vasomotion, so we investigated the significance of T-type and other ion channels for membrane potential oscillations underlying arterial spasm. Smooth muscle cell membrane potential (Em) and tension were measured simultaneously in rat middle cerebral artery. NO synthase blockade caused temporally coupled depolarizing oscillations in cerebrovascular Em with associated vasoconstriction. Both events were accentuated by block of smooth muscle BKCa. Block of T-type channels or inhibition of Na+/K+-ATPase abolished the oscillations in Em and reduced vasoconstriction. Oscillations in Em were either attenuated or accentuated by reducing [Ca2+]o or block of KV, respectively. TRAM-34 attenuated oscillations in both Em and tone, apparently independent of effects against KCa3.1. Thus, rapid depolarizing oscillations in Em and tone observed after endothelial function has been disrupted reflect input from T-type calcium channels in addition to L-type channels, while other depolarizing currents appear to be unimportant. These data suggest that combined block of T and L-type channels may represent an effective approach to reverse cerebral vasospasm.

Quantification of mitochondrial DNA mutation load

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mutations are an important cause of genetic disease and have been proposed to play a role in the ageing process. Quantification of total mtDNA mutation load in ageing tissues is difficult as mutational events are rare in a background of wild-type molecules, and detection of individual mutated molecules is beyond the sensitivity of most sequencing based techniques. The methods currently most commonly used to document the incidence of mtDNA point mutations in ageing include post-PCR cloning, single-molecule PCR and the random mutation capture assay. The mtDNA mutation load obtained by these different techniques varies by orders of magnitude, but direct comparison of the three techniques on the same ageing human tissue has not been performed. We assess the procedures and practicalities involved in each of these three assays and discuss the results obtained by investigation of mutation loads in colonic mucosal biopsies from ten human subjects.

A method of formulating energy load profile for domestic buildings in the UK

There are varieties of physical and behavioral factors to determine energy demand load profile. The attainment of the optimum mix of measures and renewable energy system deployment requires a simple method suitable for using at the early design stage. A simple method of formulating load profile (SMLP) for UK domestic buildings has been presented in this paper. Domestic space heating load profile for different types of houses have been produced using thermal dynamic model which has been developed using thermal resistant network method. The daily breakdown energy demand load profile of appliance, domestic hot water and space heating can be predicted using this method. The method can produce daily load profile from individual house to urban community. It is suitable to be used at Renewable energy system strategic design stage.

A combined engineering and statistical model of UK domestic appliance electrical load profiles

The development of a combined engineering and statistical Artificial Neural Network model of UK domestic appliance load profiles is presented. The model uses diary-style appliance use data and a survey questionnaire collected from 51 suburban households and 46 rural households during the summer of 2010 and2011 respectively. It also incorporates measured energy data and is sensitive to socioeconomic, physical dwelling and temperature variables. A prototype model is constructed in MATLAB using a two layer feed forward network with back propagation training which has a 12:10:24 architecture. Model outputs include appliance load profiles which can be applied to the fields of energy planning (microrenewables and smart grids), building simulation tools and energy policy.

Adaptive recursive control of a soil testing load frame

Recursive Learning Control (RLC) has the potential to significantly reduce the tracking error in many repetitive trajectory applications. This paper presents an application of RLC to a soil testing load frame where non-adaptive techniques struggle with the highly nonlinear nature of soil. The main purpose of the controller is to apply a sinusoidal force reference trajectory on a soil sample with a high degree of accuracy and repeatability. The controller uses a feedforward control structure, recursive least squares adaptation algorithm and RLC to compensate for periodic errors. Tracking error is reduced and stability is maintained across various soil sample responses.

Constrained principal component analysis reveals functionally connected load-dependent networks involved in multiple stages of working memory

Constrained principal component analysis (CPCA) with a finite impulse response (FIR) basis set was used to reveal functionally connected networks and their temporal progression over a multistage verbal working memory trial in which memory load was varied. Four components were extracted, and all showed statistically significant sensitivity to the memory load manipulation. Additionally, two of the four components sustained this peak activity, both for approximately 3 s (Components 1 and 4). The functional networks that showed sustained activity were characterized by increased activations in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, and left supramarginal gyrus, and decreased activations in the primary auditory cortex and "default network" regions. The functional networks that did not show sustained activity were instead dominated by increased activation in occipital cortex, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, sensori-motor cortical regions, and superior parietal cortex. The response shapes suggest that although all four components appear to be invoked at encoding, the two sustained-peak components are likely to be additionally involved in the delay period. Our investigation provides a unique view of the contributions made by a network of brain regions over the course of a multiple-stage working memory trial.

Brief communication. Rain effect on the load of tephra deposits

Accumulation of tephra fallout produced during explosive eruptions can cause roof collapses in areas near the volcano, when the weight of the deposit exceeds some threshold value that depends on the quality of buildings. The additional loading of water that remains trapped in the tephra deposits due to rainfall can contribute to increasing the loading of the deposits on the roofs. Here we propose a simple approach to estimate an upper bound for the contribution of rain to the load of pyroclastic deposits that is useful for hazard assessment purposes. As case study we present an application of the method in the area of Naples, Italy, for a reference eruption from Vesuvius volcano.

Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface waters: the export coefficient modelling approach

A manageable, relatively inexpensive model was constructed to predict the loss of nitrogen and phosphorus from a complex catchment to its drainage system. The model used an export coefficient approach, calculating the total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorus (P) load delivered annually to a water body as the sum of the individual loads exported from each nutrient source in its catchment. The export coefficient modelling approach permits scaling up from plot-scale experiments to the catchment scale, allowing application of findings from field experimental studies at a suitable scale for catchment management. The catchment of the River Windrush, a tributary of the River Thames, UK, was selected as the initial study site. The Windrush model predicted nitrogen and phosphorus loading within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 0.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1989. The export coefficient modelling approach was then validated by application in a second research basin, the catchment of Slapton Ley, south Devon, which has markedly different catchment hydrology and land use. The Slapton model was calibrated within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 2.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1986. Both models proved sensitive to the impact of temporal changes in land use and management on water quality in both catchments, and were therefore used to evaluate the potential impact of proposed pollution control strategies on the nutrient loading delivered to the River Windrush and Slapton Ley

Suspended and bed load sediment transport dynamics in two lowland UK streams—storm integrated monitoring

A great deal of work recently has focused on suspended and bedload sediment transport, driven primarily by interest in contaminant transfer. However, uncertainties regarding the role of storm events, macrophyte beds and interactions between the two phases of sediment still exist. This paper compares two study sites within the same catchment whose geology varies significantly. The differences in hydrology, suspended sediment (SS) transport and bed load transport that this causes are examined. In addition, a method to predict the mobilization of different size fractions of sediment during given flows is investigated using critical entrainment thresholds.

Voltage-gated potassium currents within the dorsal vagal nucleus: inhibition by BDS toxin

Voltage-gated potassium (Kv) channels are essential components of neuronal excitability. The Kv3.4 channel protein is widely distributed throughout the central nervous system (CNS), where it can form heteromeric or homomeric Kv3 channels. Electrophysiological studies reported here highlight a functional role for this channel protein within neurons of the dorsal vagal nucleus (DVN). Current clamp experiments revealed that blood depressing substance (BDS) and intracellular dialysis of an anti-Kv3.4 antibody prolonged the action potential duration. In addition, a BDS sensitive, voltage-dependent, slowly inactivating outward current was observed in voltage clamp recordings from DVN neurons. Electrical stimulation of the solitary tract evoked EPSPs and IPSPs in DVN neurons and BDS increased the average amplitude and decreased the paired pulse ratio, consistent with a presynaptic site of action. This presynaptic modulation was action potential dependent as revealed by ongoing synaptic activity. Given the role of the Kv3 proteins in shaping neuronal excitability, these data highlight a role for homomeric Kv3.4 channels in spike timing and neurotransmitter release in low frequency firing neurons of the DVN.

Phosphorylation of the voltage-gated potassium channel Kv2.1 by AMP-activated protein kinase regulates membrane excitability

Firing of action potentials in excitable cells accelerates ATP turnover. The voltage-gated potassium channel Kv2.1 regulates action potential frequency in central neurons, whereas the ubiquitous cellular energy sensor AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) is activated by ATP depletion and protects cells by switching off energy-consuming processes. We show that treatment of HEK293 cells expressing Kv2.1 with the AMPK activator A-769662 caused hyperpolarizing shifts in the current-voltage relationship for channel activation and inactivation. We identified two sites (S440 and S537) directly phosphorylated on Kv2.1 by AMPK and, using phosphospecific antibodies and quantitative mass spectrometry, show that phosphorylation of both sites increased in A-769662-treated cells. Effects of A-769662 were abolished in cells expressing Kv2.1 with S440A but not with S537A substitutions, suggesting that phosphorylation of S440 was responsible for these effects. Identical shifts in voltage gating were observed after introducing into cells, via the patch pipette, recombinant AMPK rendered active but phosphatase-resistant by thiophosphorylation. Ionomycin caused changes in Kv2.1 gating very similar to those caused by A-769662 but acted via a different mechanism involving Kv2.1 dephosphorylation. In cultured rat hippocampal neurons, A-769662 caused hyperpolarizing shifts in voltage gating similar to those in HEK293 cells, effects that were abolished by intracellular dialysis with Kv2.1 antibodies. When active thiophosphorylated AMPK was introduced into cultured neurons via the patch pipette, a progressive, time-dependent decrease in the frequency of evoked action potentials was observed. Our results suggest that activation of AMPK in neurons during conditions of metabolic stress exerts a protective role by reducing neuronal excitability and thus conserving energy.