924 resultados para Load forecast


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Finite element modeling of the formation of pre-loaded damage in cement mantles of orthopaedic joint replacements was presented. The existence of cracking suggested a high level of residual stress. The direction of maximum principal stress vectors corresponded well with the observed crack orientation. Results suggested that cracking depends upon a combination of residual stress, porosity and temperature rise during polymerization.

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This paper reports the impact on confinement and power load of the high-shape 2.5 MA ELMy H-mode scenario at JET of a change from all carbon plasma-facing components to an all metal wall. In preparation to this change, systematic studies of power load reduction and impact on confinement as a result of fuelling in combination with nitrogen seeding were carried out in JET-C and are compared with their counterpart in JET with a metallic wall. An unexpected and significant change is reported on the decrease in the pedestal confinement but is partially recovered with the injection of nitrogen.

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This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact from offshore wind power forecast errors of up to 2000 MW on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price are analysed. The main findings of this research are an increase in system marginal prices of approximately 1% for every percentage point rise in the offshore wind power forecast error regardless of the average forecast error sign. If offshore wind power generates less than forecasted (−13%) generation costs and system marginal prices increases by 10%. However, if offshore wind power generates more than forecasted (4%) the generation costs decrease yet the system marginal prices increase by 3%. The dispatch down of large quantities of wind power highlights the need for flexible interconnector capacity. From a system operator's perspective it is more beneficial when scheduling wind ahead of the trading period to forecast less wind than will be generated.

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This paper describes a fridge-freezer smart load model, which responds to external signals from the wholesale electricity market to support grid operations while switching the fridge-freezer on and off to maintain optimum operations for the owner. The key parameters of the model are the appliance dimensions, thermal mass, the fridge and freezer thermal time constants and the compressor power consumption. The model demonstrates that control strategies help to minimise load at times when the grid is under stress from high demand, and shift some load to a lower wholesale price or when there is excess renewable power. Three control strategies are proposed, based on peak shaving and valley filling, price signals and wind availability.

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This study characterizes the domestic loads suitable to participate in the load participation scheme to make the power system more carbon and economically efficient by shifting the electricity demand profile towards periods when there is plentiful renewable in-feed.

A series of experiments have been performed on a common fridge-freezer, both completely empty and half full. The results presented are ambient temperature, temperature inside the fridge, temperature inside the drawer of the fridge, temperature inside the freezer, thermal time constants, power consumption and electric energy consumed.

The thermal time constants obtained clearly demonstrate the potential of such refrigeration load for Smart Customer Load Participation.

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Grid operators and electricity retailers in Ireland manage peak demand, power system balancing and grid congestion by offering relevant incentives to consumers to reduce or shift their load. The need for active consumers in the home using smart appliances has never been greater, due to increased variable renewable generation and grid constraints. In this paper an aggregated model of a single compressor fridge-freezer population is developed. A price control strategy is examined to quantify and value demand response savings during a representative winter and summer week for Ireland in 2020. The results show an average reduction in fridge-freezer operating cost of 8.2% during winter and significantly lower during summer in Ireland. A peak reduction of at least 68% of the average winter refrigeration load is achieved consistently during the week analysed using a staggering control mode. An analysis of the current ancillary service payments confirms that these are insufficient to ensure widespread uptake by the small consumer, and new mechanisms need to be developed to make becoming an active consumer attractive. Demand response is proposed as a new ancillary service called ramping capability, as the need for this service will increase with more renewable energy penetration on the power system.

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There are many uncertainties in forecasting the charging and discharging capacity required by electric vehicles (EVs) often as a consequence of stochastic usage and intermittent travel. In terms of large-scale EV integration in future power networks this paper develops a capacity forecasting model which considers eight particular uncertainties in three categories. Using the model, a typical application of EVs to load levelling is presented and exemplified using a UK 2020 case study. The results presented in this paper demonstrate that the proposed model is accurate for charge and discharge prediction and a feasible basis for steady-state analysis required for large-scale EV integration.

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This paper details the theory and implementation of a composite damage model, addressing damage within a ply (intralaminar) and delamination (interlaminar), for the simulation of crushing of laminated composite structures. It includes a more accurate determination of the characteristic length to achieve mesh objectivity in capturing intralaminar damage consisting of matrix cracking and fibre failure, a load-history dependent material response, an isotropic hardening nonlinear matrix response, as well as a more physically-based interactive matrix-dominated damage mechanism. The developed damage model requires a set of material parameters obtained from a combination of standard and non-standard material characterisation tests. The fidelity of the model mitigates the need to manipulate, or "calibrate", the input data to achieve good agreement with experimental results. The intralaminar damage model was implemented as a VUMAT subroutine, and used in conjunction with an existing interlaminar damage model, in Abaqus/Explicit. This approach was validated through the simulation of the crushing of a cross-ply composite tube with a tulip-shaped trigger, loaded in uniaxial compression. Despite the complexity of the chosen geometry, excellent correlation was achieved with experimental results.